Members Daily Post: 04/11/19 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 20/113, 38p +36.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None. No races of choice.

A relief to break the -18 losing run for the  main tips, but there will be another one of those at some point, hopefully the profit pile will be bigger before it strikes again. When you play at these odds/this win SR%, runs like that are common place. You can see my post race/tip thoughts in Sunday’s post – I tipped the winner of the Cork National last year, and he won this year 28s>18s. Urgh. In reality that was the only ‘way in’ given his form in recent months, and PU LTO. Maybe they have buggered about with him to get his mark down. Annoying but I’ll live with that one. I suppose at that price, given my history with the horse in that race, i could have just thrown a dart, in hope! I didn’t have a penny on. ‘If he runs his race will he out-run 28/1 – yes. Does he stay – yes’ Maybe that simple. 28/1 winners are rarely ‘obvious’ or arriving in blistering form.  +6 points for the weekend. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/41,18p, +24.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None. As above.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Plumpton

2.40 –

Not Never (micro class) w1 ES+ H3 I1 G3 13/2 S3A# S4 S1 UP 

Debestyman (HcH) w1 ES+ 9/1 S3A UP

3.10 –

Bad Boy Du Pouldu (m -class) ES+ 5/1 S3A UP

Brother Bennett (HcCh) H3 I3 7/2 UP

3.40 – West Drive (m class) ES+  8/1 S3A UP

 

Hereford……..None

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Venetia Williams (any odds)

2.50 H – Cuban Pete 4/1  WON 4/1>6/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

2.50 H – Destined To Shine (10/1<) 3/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019

3.20 H – Vocaliser 11/1 UP 16s/ Agent Westy 3/1 UP

Vocaliser was a losing tip LTO and I may just throw hopeful change at him if a big price. He was far too keen on return and clouted a few – but his recent form is now posing questions as to his well-being. He’s in a weak C5 here and maybe he will put up an improved performance. IF he ever got back to some of his best form, he would destroy a race like this from this mark. Maybe the yard had issues last year, hence his form. But questions. 

Agent Westy – he will go very close against this lot if he jumps early/warms up. Some pace to aim at but he’s probably not overpriced. I don’t like playing in C5s that often, and not at 4s or so! But he is well handicapped imo. 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Please Note …

‘Venetia Time’ – the selections for this angle will be posted above in the test zone, as you can see now. This is the longest standing trainer ‘micro angle’ on the blog I think, having been posting selections for at least 3 years, if not 4. It’s +131 BFSP since start of 2014. 

I’ve no hesitation in recommending that as a system to back blind during November, if you like that sort of thing. But certainly use as a ‘way in’ if you pick your own horses out. It’s as proven as it gets for a trainer angle like this really. Next Sept I will recommend to follow the ‘Twister’ angles also. Clearly i’ve put the mockers on her now but even a ‘bad’ year shouldn’t be too painful, but only bet what you can afford to lose and i’d like to think a 15/20 point bank should be more than adequate. 

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VIDEO: 

A look back at Saturday, really with an eye on … unexposed / graded form / hot form/ RPRs >handicap marks > 

I tried to keep it under 10 minutes, thus ensuring I kept it to 15!! Hopefully you find it interesting/useful in your own punting>>>

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Birch Vale Hereford 16:20 1pt e/w-I thought this one was a little overpriced. Was two lengths clear and the last one off the bridle when falling at the last two starts back and I thought that there can be any number of excuses for her run last time out particularly the break. That was against the boys and she returns against her own sex here. The stable is also in better form now. Hughes has a good record on her. Should be able to lead and I thought with a number of these looking like they will need it I expect her to go close.

    NickM 04/11/19 7:49 AM Reply


    • beat me to it Nick, have had a punt @ 12’s with a win saver on Sir Hoodie.

      martin whittle 04/11/19 8:21 AM Reply


  • Is Nicholls going for an early Christmas present gamble at plumpton today??

    Leif Collins 04/11/19 8:06 AM Reply


  • TIP TOP
    3.00 Kempton Jalaad 3/1
    4.30 Kempton Maximum Effect 5/2
    ARUBA
    3.00 Kempton Jalaad 3/1
    4.30 Kempton Maximum Effect 5/2
    Colin

    cleafe 04/11/19 8:34 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS and ORIGINAL
    No bets

    cleafe 04/11/19 8:34 AM Reply


  • P 3.10 – Bredon Hill Lad.. fancy the vet to slog his way through the mud in this one @ 8’s

    Titus 04/11/19 8:46 AM Reply


  • Plumpton
    2:40 trans express
    3:10 Bredon hill lad

    Kempton
    4:00 weekends

    Hereford
    4:20 birch vale

    warren Bottomley 04/11/19 9:22 AM Reply


  • I did watch the video looking back at the weekend and thought that it was insightful.
    Acting Lass is well handicapped now and does need to jump better. It may be that she needs small fields to do that as the urly burly did not seem to be up her street.

    Re Vindication, you mentioned that he was 9/2 the night before and then went off short and looked to be a grade horse in an handicap. We hear a lot about ‘dont bet the night before or you will get restricted’. I think that this is over hyped but does have some truth in it. When I have been restricted I do not think that it was because if that.
    I am starting a new project soon whereby I back a horse for the Saturday on the Wednesday before, so I get an ‘Ante Post’ price. OK you have the element of ante post in that if it does not run you may lose your stake but you get the value of the price as a counter balance. An example, albeit with a loser, was Torpillo who was 11/4 on the Wednesday and went off 4/5 on the day.

    We shall see how this approach goes?

    martin colwell 04/11/19 11:09 AM Reply


    • Thanks Martin.
      Some good musings there.

      Acting Lass (he is a boy, despite the name, I did have to check!) – you could be spot on about field size – still in the unknown category on that front but maybe over fences he does just need time/space to measure fences. He clearly has had problems – he spent the first 3/4 fences jumping as if he hasn’t been schooled since Punchestown and had just come from the field! Very odd. Then back on the bridle and moved though, albeit taking a few with him, and then faded – may have badly needed it but those exertions kicked in. I do think he has a handicap chase or two in him – whether he’s a backable price, we shall see.

      Vindication – i’m pleased how I read him, as per write up – I always find that sort tricky – i’ve no issue with advising prices the evening before for big Saturday handicaps like that – in any case part of the thinking is I do like to look again with ‘fresh eyes’ on the morning of racing – I find many more winners/look at races better, with such an approach. I can cut corners the evening before having been ‘thinking horse’ in some capacity for most of the day – I don’t like thinking about horses after 6pm, but obv i’m in a privileged position on that score.

      That sort at that price point is always a challenge – and every season I take on a handful of types like that/those odds, who win. That’s just how it is. In fairness he didn’t have many flaws in his profile at all, inc record fresh and trainer form. Still, the two I landed on were awful.

      Bookies – I suspect taking ‘stand out’ price, following flagged/marked ‘tipsters’ and taking the piss with staking/their liabilities are prob more important for life of accounts than evening before, but I don’t know. There may be no method at all to their restriction madness.

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      That Wednesday approach sounds like it’s worth a go – I can see the appeal of that for big races, esp if you can be as sure as poss that X is running, when races cut up etc and you have some sort of idea as to going/forecasts.
      I definitely think it’s an approach worth exploring and best of luck with it. Indeed that may be the time to catch the Vindication types at a more appealing price.

      Josh

      Josh 04/11/19 11:23 AM Reply


  • couple of winners yesterday @ 8’s and 5’s, quite a big list today .
    Today’s horses of interest.
    Plumpton.
    2-40. Theo’s Charm, Trans Express
    3-10. Bredon Hill Lad
    3-40. Harry Hazard
    Hereford.
    1-50. Boher Lad, Abbeygrey
    2-50. Enrichissant
    3-20. Vocaliser, American Craftsman
    3-50. Barrowlands
    4-20. Birch Vale

    martin whittle 04/11/19 11:39 AM Reply


  • just a quick question, what is the best software available for system building? what i’m looking for is something i can give a set of rules to and it will search for qualifiers, i.e. must have won in going,distance, same class or higher and be within 5 + or – of last winning mark. any help appreciated.

    martin whittle 04/11/19 12:06 PM Reply


    • Horse Race Base, very good value for money.

      handbag 04/11/19 12:33 PM Reply


      • Agreed, I’ve never really used anything else for system building as such, bar Geegeez now for some pace analysis, wind ops. (albeit the latter will be added into HRB at some point I suspect as same data source)

        But yep, for £10 per month it’s a bargain for system building/research purposes. The race cards are decent enough, esp the various tabs, horse ‘profiling’ tool is great.

        Josh

        Josh 04/11/19 12:35 PM Reply


        • Do wind ops have much relevance Josh? They seem to be something or nothing to me really. It certainly wouldn’t help me decide on whether to bet or not, I mean how can you tell when a horse will start to benefit from it or if at all. It just seems to me that there’s a lot of shouting when a horse wins after a wind op and silence when they lose, I’d certainly bet on far more losing than winning!

          handbag 04/11/19 12:57 PM Reply


          • Oh I mean from a trainer’s perspective, and only ever a guide – and more so in the neg sense, as they seem to be popular – Nicholls’s has a solid record with them, to the point where you would more likely conclude ‘this may improve them slightly’ (provided still unexposed) rather than ‘this is a neg sign that they’ve problems’ .
            Skelton does very well with his 1st wind op fancied ones I believe etc. It’s only more info, but suspect some trainers are better at knowing when a wind problem etc. Maybe.
            But no it’s not some transformative addition that will help us bring in shed loads more profit.

            But i’d I see a horse with 1st win op in a chase i’m looking at, same with 1st headgear, I’ll check to see what trainer’s record is etc. And maybe even the sire.

            Josh 04/11/19 1:08 PM Reply


        • Hi Josh, does it have a good ‘eyecatchers’ facility so I can flag up what I see and be notified when next running? Thanks!

          James Barker 04/11/19 1:05 PM Reply


          • Yep, you can add ‘notes’ to any horse, and then ‘follow’ them, and they will be flagged in the ‘qualifiers’ list (along with any active saved systems) which is uploaded around 4pm> before the next day, unless 48 decs which annoyingly we don’t have for jumps.
            The ‘notes’ will also appear under the horse in the race card.
            It’s what I use for all my ‘notebook’ horses, saves micro systems, and stats/trends analysis.
            There may be an email notification i’m not sure, i’ve never used it if so, or noticed, but then i’m looking every day, so the only time I miss them is if a) I failed to follow them properly b) my lists of notebook horses / system quals all blur into one!
            There’s a free trial.
            I really should get mr HRB to set up an affiliate prog, but alas haha.
            Josh

            Josh 04/11/19 1:12 PM Reply


            • Wind Ops are just part of the picture but I would not worry about it too much. They must help in the long run for most horses but you would need to see the horse run a few times. You know what they say ‘the more you know the less clearer things are’ or something like that.
              If you watch Josh’s video today and take note of the horses he highlights and why they may have run well, then that is a better way to go and look at a race than to start plumbing various factors into a piece of software and let it throw out qualifiers. I work with a site that has various tipsters using algorithms and lots of dials that spin like the machine Alan Turing made and you know what, they do well to scrape a profit.
              I have a number of systems/micros myself that I flag up on here and so I am reliant on such. However they are more based on trainers for certain types of races or at certain courses. You have to do a fair bit of testing of them but from my perspective they work best.

              Good luck all.

              martin colwell 04/11/19 2:02 PM Reply


              • Excellent advice, thank you!

                James Barker 04/11/19 5:32 PM Reply


  • NEW post… Micro Monday…

    With a look at some trainers to keep an eye on in November, including x3 ‘micro angles’…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2019/11/04/micro-monday-04-11-19/

    Josh

    Josh 04/11/19 12:10 PM Reply


  • Lambourn trainers on the all weather:

    Three each way pokes today from Ed Walker.

    2.30 KP Al Daiha.
    3.00 KP Gallic.
    5.45 Nc Dark Silver.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 04/11/19 12:37 PM Reply


  • There is a qualifier from the AW TT stats pack in the 1.30 Kempton, Pempie, the Balding C5 micro.

    Backing this and Kyllachy Dragon EW.

    Mark Curtis 04/11/19 12:41 PM Reply


  • Plum’ 2.10 Mab Deb…. 9.0

    Back at 4.00

    Tim Hanson 04/11/19 1:20 PM Reply


  • 3 for later on at Newcastle via Josh’s AW T/T. All B Haslam.
    4.40 Castlehill Retreat 4/1
    5.45 Auckland Lodge 16/1
    7.45 The Bull 4/1

    Mike

    Cuban Pete did the business at Hereford but missed the Plumpton VW winner Penny Mellow. Can’t win them all.

    mickeydee 04/11/19 3:06 PM Reply


    • Oh you don’t want to be backing all her runners blind this month – leaving aside handicaps/chases, the rest are -50 SP combined in the same period.
      You have to pick them, when it comes to other race types. Of course she may have a ‘back them all’ set of november results, but i’d stick to the angle in the test zone in terms of ‘backing blind’ , and then analyse her others if you wish.
      Josh

      Josh 04/11/19 3:11 PM Reply


  • Cheers Josh, point taken. Follow the Boss.!! Ha ha.

    Mike

    mickeydee 04/11/19 3:15 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Just wondering if you (or anybody else) have anything on the Melbourne Cup? Seem to remember you put up a guest post last year which was well worth a read.

    Thanks

    Ben

    921389 04/11/19 3:46 PM Reply


    • Hi Ben,

      Yep Darran P has written a preview for what seems like his regular home…
      you can flick through it here >>> (he’s worth following on twitter if you have that)

      https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/171103-melbourne-cup/

      Josh

      Josh 04/11/19 3:54 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh.

        921389 04/11/19 4:43 PM Reply


      • Do you know darran, josh? He’s well worth following on non league football too.

        Leif Collins 04/11/19 6:58 PM Reply


        • Yep – well i’ve never met him in person but have chatted plenty- he’s written a few guest posts on here before etc, but his stuff lives over there/on twitter now.
          Certainly knows his onions 🙂

          Josh 04/11/19 7:08 PM Reply


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