Members Daily Post: 03/11/19 (complete/video)

VIDEO > write ups – ALL tips x3,Section 2 (complete), test zone, Cork pointers

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 20/113, 38p +36.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

#1 3.20 Cork – WONDEROFTHEWORLD – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365) 10/1 (gen) UP (5th) – I was excited all the way through that, until 2/3f out when the stamina gave way, or class, or weight, i’m not sure. Looked hard work, and he wasn’t good enough. He has more soft ground handicaps in him over 24/26f. 

Annoyingly the horse I tipped in it last year won, 28s>18s – urgh. A mecurial character and one i’ll just have to take on the chin – PU LTO in the race mine won above, no headgear change, I didn’t think he wanted soft/heavy ground, usually held up last,, 20+ chase runs – alas he was on a going day and had nothing on his back, which seemed key. Maybe he just likes Cork and that price I just throw a dart, having liked him last year,when I think he should have won. Maybe connections have buggered about with him but I think he is just inconsistent. Clearly in the mood today. 

#3 3.40 Carl – BAFANA BLUE – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365/Lad/BV) 9/2 (others) WON 5/1>9/2 , I was concerned it would be softer than ideal come race time but he’s handled it and bolted up – it wasn’t a great race, the right horse plugged on into second, the rest well stuffed as expected really. Hopefully for connections the handicapper isn’t too harsh on him. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/41,18p, +24.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#2 1.20 Carlisle – KNOCKROBIN – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP – he ran well for a long way and I was excited for a time, before he blew up – maybe he badly needed it and/or he just can’t breathe. 

that’s all for today, as of 09.08, write ups incoming at bottom of the post…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Carlisle

3.40 – Lough Derg Farmer (micro TJC) I1 G3 4/1 UP

 

Huntingdon

3.30 –

Costante Via (HcH) ES+ H1 I3 11/4 S3A# UP

Dr Time (all Hc’s) H3 I1 6/1 UP

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TTP Chase Micros

3.40 Carl – Lough Derg Farmer I1 G3 4/1 UP

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

1.20 Carl – Im To Blame (11/1<) 13/2 2nd 17/2 – cracking run given how keen he was . Jumped well. Will win chases if learning to settle. 

2.20 Hunt – Rock On Rocky (10/1<) 11/2 2nd 

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Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

3.20 Cork – Wonderoftheworld 10/1 UP 5th

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

L = just a reminder the L indicates the horse (chases only) has led at least once on recent runs. It may help with any analysis for now, if you use any stats quals as ‘starting points’. I am tracking the results as of 1st Nov as it may be that it’s a useful systematic angle, but time will tell. A reminder that 67% of handicap chases are won by horses who led or raced prominently. 

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Saturday… I’m happy with how that day went, esp the win of Jonniesofa which came from a bit of tracking having spotted him/tipped him (when NR and 12/1 – Oh for it to have been softer that day) a few weeks back.

If a ‘big’ handicap chase is won by a 9/2 shot (early) it’s highly likely i’m never landing on them but i’m happy with how I read Vindication, while being less happy with how mine ran. Plenty of positives to take from Saturday, including a few races where I landed on the winners on my notepad, but the prices had gone by early morning – BallyOptic made 6s looks good, well he did make 9/2 look good so some pondering there. Greenhall had a winner at Wetherby i’d have been closer to if he was bigger than 4s on the morning (5s SP), as did Barnes at Ayr but his was never big enough (7/2) given some questions re experience. There’s some pondering re Diego Du Charmil also. I may record a quick video tomorrow pulling together some common themes – if anything Saturday was a further reminder that the ‘unexposed’ chasers are the ones to focus on (esp with my ‘win only’ eyes, which are different from EW eyes, which I just don’t posses!) but also the importance of Graded form and how handicaps are such a step down. And indeed a further reminder of ‘hot form’ – i’ll record a video Sunday lunch to show you what I mean.

The ‘main’ tips are on a losing run but i’m not that bothered by it at the moment, in part that’s the nature of the big handicaps, but as with the test, a few frustrating placed efforts. But as a whole, they’re fine, but i’ll try and get that back/past +50 soon enough esp with non-Saturday races. (the ‘bread and butter’).

My ‘test tips’ – I will drop the ‘test’ element soon enough. I now back them to the same stakes as I do my ‘main’ staying chase tips- they’ve had a long term record since this blog first started, bar the odd wobbly and me inextricably tipping in every race type under the sun from last summer through to mid Feb this year. Not sure why i did that, trying to specialise is much more fun, profitable and less mentally draining. I know plenty of you will back them but also that many of you may not. The same work goes into them, I prob just want to get to 50 bets or +50 in profit, but I don’t lack for confidence in my ability with those long term now.

All ‘chase tips’, excluding The Festivals, are +74.1 points since 22nd Feb when I re-set my tipping brain. I won’t complain at that.

They’ll also be a results update post early next week, for Oct/year to date.

Back Sunday morning.

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3.20 Cork Grand National 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) 

  • Out Sam / Gun Digger/ Woods Well
  • The Red Menace / Russian Bill
  • Pont Aven
  • Progress Drive
  • The Gatechecker WON 28/1>18/1 🙁

15/15 sent off 14/1< shorter SP

15/15 had 0-2 handicap chase wins (3+ : 0/31,5p)

12/15 Top 3 LTO (won: 6/31,16p, +16 BFSP)

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Write ups…

1.20 – Knockrobin –

This horse clearly has the odd issue as they’ve tinkered with his wind plenty and he’s had another op in the closed season (it isn’t his 1st). So, you want a price on him and in reality the market doesn’t mean anything with McCains, as we saw with Same Circus at Aintree (seasonal return/40/1). This horse ran a cracker in this race last year, on seasonal return, at 25/1. He wasn’t beaten far, raced on the front end, and jumped superbly. He stayed on there to the line in a way which suggested he was fit. The front three were clear and he will appreciate the cut in this ground – he’s undoubtedly a better horse with cut, which he didn’t have in this race last season.

McCain is in Ok form with a winner in the last 14 days and a few placed horses. The horse is 0/6 over fences but unlike many in here has chase experience. So many of these are making chase debut, and on seasonal return – and plenty have never raced in points. There’s a chance that many in here need the run more than he does and that his jumping on the front end gets plenty of these in trouble. I’m not sure many in here have bombproof hurdles form and thus looks ‘chucked in’ from their marks, albeit clearly many open to improvement over fences.

But, I was happy to take them all on at the prices.

Hill Sixteen is interesting and will appreciate this trip. He is the one I fear most, but how anyone can back a Smith horse at the moment, at 6s/7s< (or in general), is beyond me. She’s 0/33,2p in the last 30 days, 0/18,1p in the last 14 – she’s had plenty of fancied ones fall out the back of the TV suggesting that there could be problems. This could be the day her season starts, but i’ll leave them/take them all on.

Knockrobin is 6lb below his mark in this last year and IF he runs like he did there, he will out-run his 16/1 odds. I couldn’t resist.

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3.20 Cork – Wonderoftheworld

This one went into my notebook LTO as a stayer to follow who may relish even further. Staying on over 25f in soft at Gowran (galloping/stiff finish) would indicate that. There were two well clear there and the other fell late – he may have come a close second, or powered away, but it would still have been a great run. That horse, Grainyhill, ran well LTO, on better ground/speedier than ideal for him.

The horse… well he relishes soft ground which I think it will be – it’s been raining yesterday/overnight with more expected today. He travels so well – enthusiastic but controlled- and he jumped superbly LTO – he can track the pace and move through up the straight at a track that should suit. Clearly he has to prove he stays hence why you want a price. The yard are in form, he’s in form, and I expect a big run.

This is only his second handicap chase, having built up a bit of form in beginners chases on ground too lively and tracks too sharp. He’s a stayer/galloper. He got within 4l of The Red Menance (more on him in a moment) in one of those chases, outpaced but staying on. There shouldn’t be this disparity in price.  I think he should be 6s/7s in this line up based on known form. If you look to some of his non-hncp form it does look strong. He was as staying on 2nd against Up For Review (OR 146 for Mullins) in a beginners chase over too short/good ground, as an example. He has other strong form also.

He just looks to big. He has a new jockey who is experienced including around here. I don’t like the fact he’s never ridden him but I get 10s+ . I’m not sure if he’s the retained jockey now for this owner, who’s had more retained jockeys than i’ve had hot dinners, but he’ll be desperate to keep the rides on his, as he’s a few nice horses.

The dangers…

The Red Menance....

I won’t put anyone off a saver on him at 6s, inc myself, but something niggled at me to wade in at his price. He’s unproven over 3m and races over 6f further than LTO, inspired by 1st blinkers. He got an easy lead there in a race that fell apart. Gun Digger didn’t run his race, the second doesn’t stay the trip and the rest fell out the back of the tv also. I don’t think he will get an easy lead in here- plenty like to get on with it – and he’s up in the weights. BUT, he is progressive and Meade’s had a great year to date, and has won this race. I don’t think mine should be +5 points bigger. It was a tricky one at this price point and he could hack up again, we shall see. But I think mine may be a stronger stayer.

I was happy to take on the rest for various reasons at the prices.

There were not any other big priced ones I wanted to be with. Oscar Knight is interesting but i’m not sure he will stay and he is 10, having his 23rd chase start. He is being nibbled at and did run OK LTO. Maybe this trip is what he’s always wanted. I was on the fence, but maybe he’s next in.

I can leave some of the older horses.

Progress Drive was backed LTO but ran appallingly – he was never going a yard in that race having watched it back and I can leave him on the back of that effort – a lack of fitness wasn’t the reason for that effort. If he wins so be it. How he’s the same price as mine i’m not quite sure.

Russian Bill- i’m not sure he’s good enough for a race like this, he’s slow. But he may keep plodding on into the places. Inexperienced pilot also and Sean Flanagan can ride to 9-13 so it may be significant he’s picked The Red Menance.

I can leave Elliots for various reasons, inc Woods Well who I thought wanted better ground and again an inexperienced chase pilot. Gun Digger was just too poor LTO to support.

I backed the Gatechecker in this last year who ran on into 3rd and may have won with a better ride/had he not smacked a couple/got interfered with, but then again you get what you deserve if ridden cold in races like this. I can’t have him today.

I can leave De Bromhead’s on this ground (i’ve assumed it will be soft, if it’s better than that his chance would improve) but I saw no reason why he’d over-turn the form with mine from LTO.

Anyway, I could go on. I had it between two of them, with an eye on Oscar Knight, but the other two are more lightly raced/open to progress, and I went with the bigger priced one.

I did contemplate tipping both but thought The Red Menace was the right price.

Pace – there’s four or five who can get on with it. Mine will track any pace I hope, and move through Smoothly, take it up before the last, ping it, and power away up the straight!

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3.40 Carl – Bafana Blue –

The first thing to say is that there are no ‘unexposed/could be anything’ types in this race.

The selection – well I don’t think he should be a bigger price than Ballymalin, especially given his course form and how that horse ran here last season (albeit he may have needed it). BB beat one of mine LTO who I wish had got going sooner but having watched it back today’s selection was well on top at the line, hands and heels in a way which suggested he could progress again. He’s won with a quick return before and his yard are in form also – albeit he’s a LTO winner 10 days ago so that’s less of an issue, but a positive. He jumps well and stays, and likes the track. The ground is a niggle IF it’s softer than advertised and if they get more than ‘intermittent showers’. But then again some of his hurdles form was in a swamp.

He usually tracks any pace and there should be no excuses.

I really can’t have the rest/wanted to take them on.

Ballymalin is the right fav but that wasn’t a great race LTO, he’s a question around here, and needs to step forward again. He may do all that but I’m happy to leave him. He isn’t overpriced and he isn’t bombproof.

The rest….well.. yes Lough Derg Farmer may win but the same thoughts on Smith’s horses apply – in the context of short prices. He’s a bit of a rouge but ran well to a point on return LTO. But I can leave him.

Scotchtown is a rogue who finds ways to lose over fences – 0/11 chasing- he also doesn’t have a great record fresh. He has to be taken on at 7/2.

Westreeet is a boat who needs further/softer and may well need the run. I can’t have him in this race. Maybe they’ll all fall in a hole and he’ll plod on, but not for me.

And if the other two win, then this will be poor. Old Salt has many questions inc stamina. Harry The Viking is 14 – I can cheer him home but how on earth can I back him, even at 20s.

Pace…Twisters may tow them along, BB just behind them – and Cook may be aggressive. Maybe all three will cut each other’s throats, and BB will stay on past them after the last. Here’s hoping.

In any case, 5s was a couple of points too big for me.

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VIDEO: 

A look back at yesterday, really with an eye on … unexposed / graded form / hot form/ RPRs >handicap marks > 

I tried to keep it under 10 minutes, thus ensuring I kept it to 15!! Hopefully you find it interesting/useful in your own punting>>>

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. A few that caught the eye,
    Carlisle.
    1-20. Chapel Stile
    1-55. Tim Rocco
    3-05. Bordeaux Bill
    3-40. Befana Blue (win)
    Cork.
    3-20. Out Sam
    Huntingdon.
    1-10. Fricka
    1-45. Cotswold Way
    2-20. Eyeswideopenawake
    3-30. Ring Minella

  2. 15:20 Cork
    WONDEROFTHEWORLD 1pt win 10/1 gen
    THE RED MENACE 1pt win 6/1 gen
    sorry for no write ups, been extremely busy.

  3. My NAP of the day is….1.45 Hun, Erick Le Rouge. Expected to improve over fences and has started well. A competitive novices chase.

    If 5/1 or better, 2 points each way.

    If less than 5/1, 2 points win.

    Good luck.

  4. Hi Josh, just a quick thankyou for yesterday’s TTC at Ascot. Had a superb day and walked away with some of the bookies readies……happy days. Did several of yours each way and also backed Nicks each way, thankyou Nick. The magic pin landed on Where’s Tom in the last (clue was in the name) haha….33/1 as well ,lucky lucky me!! Anyway a great day and once again a big cheesy smile thankyou.

    1. Hi Tom
      Good stuff. By the end of the card I was hoping you’d backed plenty EW!! Plenty of door knocking, would have been nice to add one more winner but that’s the game. Was a competitive card.
      Inspired pick in the last, just the sort you have to do when a) it’s an open race on paper, b) you’re name is Tom c) they’re 33/1!! I was hoping my second would get up and i thought he was going to, but you had either one, and no doubt pleased when your’s hung on!
      That sounds like a very good day at the races. Well done.

  5. Josh Wright at 3:29PM “Will be a blank day, Bafana isn’t winning in that ground, softer than I thought”

    Good thing he didn’t tell that to the rest of you. You’d think he was out of form saying something like that 😉

    1. Damn you! 🙂 I did say that at a time when my previous two tips were still running, somewhere! 🙂 He’s got away with it, thought it may fall apart/the rest were not up to much, and may have confirmed Ballymalin prefers flatter finishes.

      1. Yes Josh, good job I didn’t see that comment

        Well done on a good weekend, as I said yesterday you are reading them well

        Pete

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