Members Daily Post: 02/11/19 (complete:10.19)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/111, 37p +32.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.20 Ascot

#1 ADRIEN DU PONT- 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365) 14/1 (gen) UP/PU, poor, moved well through it, seemed to settle, so not sure what went wrong there, not that it mattered. 

#2 ACTING LASS – 1 point win – 28/1 (LadB) 25/1 (bet365/BV/Coral/BlackT) UP, strange run, took ages to warm up, ran ok after that but jumping poor – one for CP or something maybe. Has chases in him. 

Vindication hacked up – that was the fear but I can’t wade in at 4s in a race like that, and nor can I seemingly leave the race with some double figure pokes. They were poor but it was going to be -2 whatever happened there. The day you’re scared off a fav like that, is the day they fluff lines and a biggie goes in. That’s the game in these big chases.

Black Corton ran better than I thought, so credit to Nick for that EW poke.  

Still, 1/4, +3 on the day is solid, if unspectacular 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/40,18p, +25.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#3 2.10 Ascot – SPEREDEK – 1 point win – 6/1 (888) 11/2 – (bet365/betfS/PP) UP – he was poor, no excuse there. A more ‘exposed’ one I suppose and i’ve got the pace all wrong, but i’d take 1 from 2 all day long. Plenty to learn from Diego Du Charmil, unexposed in handicaps, and G1 winner. 15/2 this morning so some pondering there. Thats if he keeps it, and his stablemate may well have beaten him – but the Saturday Nicholl’s machine is warming up. 

#4 1.40 Ayr – JONNIESOFA – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) WON 4/1>6/1 … hacked up, if he was going to win, I thought he would do it like that in truth – won as he should given all we knew, just whether he was fit, and everything indicated he would be, inc the test micro below. Good fun when they win like that! I didn’t want to miss him and that was the time to catch him. He’s fragile but hope he can back up, wont be 4s>6/1 NTO though! 

That’s all for tips today, any further write ups as bottom of post…

 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ascot

2.45 –

Jolly’s Cracked It (all Hc’s) G1 8/1 S1 UP

Red Force One (HcH) w1 2nd 

Nordic Combined (HcH) 10/1 3rd

3.20 – Acting Lass (all Hc’s) 20/1 S2A UP

 

Ayr

1.10 –

Bulls Head (micro age) 8/1 Fell

Graystown (m TJC) I3 7/1 UP

1.40 – Blakerigg (HcCh) H3 I3 3/1 UP

2.15 – Takingrisks (m dist) w1 w2 H1 G3 I1 3/1 S4 UP

3.25 –

Keyboard Gangster (HcH) 10/1 UP

Lake Takapuna (m dist) w2

 

Wetherby

12.50 – Renwick (m TJC) ES+ 9/2 S3A 2nd 

1.20 –

West To The Bridge (m TJC) L ES+ H3 G3 I1 9/2 S3A# S4 2nd 

Oak Vintage (all Hc’s)9/2 UP

4.10 –

Sakhees City (all Hc’s,HcH) 14/1 2nd 

Gortroe Joe (m TJC) ES+ 14/1 S3A 3rd

Romeo Brown (all Hc’s,HcH) w2 H1 5/1 UP

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FLAT……….None

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TTP Chase Micros

3.20 Ascot – On The Blind Side 7/1 4th

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

C Longsdon 

1.20 Weth – Just Don’t Ask  7/1 3rd 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers 

1.10 Ayr – Sporting Press (11/1<) 3/1 UP

1.40 Ayr – Gold Opera (11/1<)  7/2 UP

2.50 Ayr – Smiths Cross (any odds) L 9/4PU / Monsieur Co (11/1<) 5/1 2nd 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

12.50 Weth – Out For Justice (25/1< ) 16/1 

3.20 Asoct – Acting Lass (17/2< guide) 20/1 UP

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Long Absence Trainers 

1.40 Ayr – Jonniesofa L  4/1 WON 6/1 

 

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Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

2.50 Ayr – Smiths Cross 9/4  PU

3.30 Down R – Graineyhill 5/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW #1

Saturday Big Race Trends/Stats/Trainer pointers : READ HERE>>> (also in Trends Thursday post)

NEW #2 

Something for you ALL-WEATHER Fans… a sort of Winter Trainer Track Profiles >>>

READ HERE>>>

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Saturday Big Race Trends ‘shortlists’

I’ll leave the 2.10 where the stats don’t help too much given no 13/13 and it’s only a 13 runner race.

2.10 Listed Handicap Hurdle

Trainers (to have won race with runners) T

Adjali / Red Force One / Lisp / Gunball WON 

Stats/trends

13/13 + 12/13 leave:

Adjali T/ Lisp T / Denmead / Vision Clear / Song for Someone / Nordic Combined (bear in mind all winners sent off 12/1<, the market is generally a good pointer) 

 

3.20 – 3m Handicap Chase

Trainers (to have won race with runners) T

On The Blind Side / Larry / Cobra De Mai

Stats/Trends

The 13/13 through to 10/13 leaves us with 8/35 runners, 13p, +50 SP (inc 5 of last 6) :-

Vindication WON / Mister Malarkey / Larry  T/ Springtown Lake / Adrien Du Pont / Acting Lass

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Write ups…

3.20 Ascot

Adrien Du Pont – he’s worth a go here at the price and i’m expecting a big run, as is his trainer according to his Betfair column. He’s still unexposed over fences and this is only his 6th handicap chase. Plenty of Nicholls’ horses have been needing it but this one has won fresh in the past and he had a chase winner at Fakenham who won on his return, also having done so before- obviously he can ready them if he wants and i’d be surprised if this hasn’t been the plan. He ran well in this race last year and he’d have got closer had he not pecked at the last -albeit he wouldn’t have won. However, on paper there is so much pace in this and it could be a searching gallop, which is perfect for him – he has to be dropped out the back, in order to switch off – but he’s a lovely jumper (touch wood) who cruises through his races and has pace. He’s also had a wind-op which may eek out more – Nicholls is 11/48, 24p with those, 4/14.7p in Class 1/2. Jockey bookings – well Lorcan is the best available for this yard – Bryony was always riding the top weight, Harry is in Ireland, Sean is tied to Harry’s now I think and Sam T-D is at Wetherby with plenty for his Dad, inc in the big one. Lorcan would have won this race last year if his horse wasn’t such a mule when hitting the front. I think his mark is fine and some of his RPRs are in the 150s. His form looks solid, inc smashing up the Hobbs horse at Kempton, and he could win this well. Solid. He will need luck in running but if he gets it I think he should be 8s or so in this lineup. Nicholls is 0/20 in this but 9 have placed and it’s about time he won it!

Acting Lass – a punt, as most 25s shots are- but he’s unexposed and gets his ground. He’s also won fresh and in his hurdles days got within 7l of Finians Oscar, who’d win a G1 on his next start. IF this horse stays sound he definitely has a big handicap chase pot in him over this trip. I’m hoping it’s today, for his in-form trainer, and for the excellent Sean Bowen. I don’t think he likes Good ground at all. Something clearly went wrong two starts back and he didn’t run well after a monster lay-off at Punchestown, on decent enough ground. I can excuse that and suspect they decided to draw stumps and wait for winter ground. He’s a lively outsider here but if it’s not today, i’ll try to make sure i’m on when he does hack up. 🙂 But at 25s I really couldn’t help myself.

The dangers…

Well the big priced clangers/those I considered… I like Ami Desbois but he keeps going up in the weights for not winning and needs a career best over fences, aged 9. He’s a great record fresh and jumps well on the front end. But I thought they’d be something better in here and his form is solid, but only that. I hope I haven’t got him wrong. He does have a make-all win in him this season, but maybe in a less competitive race/smaller field where he can get an easy lead. Relentless Dreamer – he’s interesting simply because he’s solid and fit, and isn’t held up. That may well be enough but he’s exposed, and open to attack from younger legs. I need to be focusing on the unexposed ones, especially in races like this. Missing these types is far easier to take than horses like The Conditional. Both could run big races.

Vindication may be hard to beat but is short, especially on handicap debut in a blood and thunder handicap chase like this. He’s also idle and needs driving late, but tries, and likes winning. I have to take him on at 7/2 but I wouldn’t be shocked if he outclassed these, but a chance he hits a few early and doesn’t find a rhythm.

Henderson’s is a lovely chaser who’s got some nice races in him and maybe today. But he doesn’t have a record fresh and while unexposed he’s inexperienced for a test like this. It’s a game of price and I can leave at 13/2, but it could be as simple as being between him and Bailey’s. But, he could scare himself here and run a shocker again – albeit it could be he just doesn’t like Cheltenham. Henderson is in form and has won this race before. Were he 10s/12s, you’d want him onside.

I may look silly taking on the top two in this but it’s the right play long term and they do have the odd question on their return, in a big field like this.

Mister Malarkey – i can leave at 7s given Tizzard has said the ‘Hennessy’ is the main early season target – I can only think this is a prep for that and I’d be shocked if he was a1 here and would ruin his mark for that race. But if he’s a1 and here to run his race, he will go close. He’s got a very nice staying chase in him this year also – i’m more minded to like him for The Welsh Grand National I think. A big strong galloper who’s seemingly improved over the summer.

I can leave Springtown Lake who’s been beaten by a few in here, he can jump to his left and he does have to prove his stamina. Hobbs is also 0/11 in the race and I can leave him at 9s or so.

Any one of those mentioned above could take this, but I can leave them at their prices.

Larry hasn’t won fresh, has stamina to prove and his form isn’t on the same level as a few in here. But the trainer knows what it takes to win this, but I can leave him. Black Corton must surely be held by the handicapper now or in any case is open to attack from something with more in hand. Hopefully he’ll ensure a searching gallop to help set it up for his stablemate.

The rest I can leave for various reasons. Bar Kings (who looks a summer jumper/weak form, but is fit) they are all on the exposed end of the scale/open to attack from less exposed/younger legs or have it to prove from their marks. Albeit 33s for Cobra may be a tad insulting, but he’s now on a career high mark.

I’m on the right two horses for me in this.

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1.40 Ayr – Jonniesofa – he isn’t as strong in the market as I was expecting which isn’t a great sign but I wanted to be with him. I don’t think fitness will be a question and his form, when making the track/running his race, has such a strong look to it, esp in the context of this race. He should race on the front end and try to make all in his ideal ground and has won after 500+ days previously. IF he can stay sound (and he’s been ready to run all year but horses coughing earlier in year) he should rate higher than this, but has it to prove. I didn’t like the rest at the prices and he is the most interesting in this, however if he doesn’t run his race it’s open enough.

2.10 Ascot – Speredek – He was 6s when I pressed ‘post’ but within 30 seconds a NR came through, the fav/a main danger , but I thought 11/2 was solid and on all known form he should be fav. He ran a blinder in this race last year, on seasonal return, no CP, and no Sean Bowen. The yard are in form and this must have been the plan. He’s 1lb lower than the race last year and I hope Sean may be more sensible – I think he should see off any other front runners and if Sean can sit on him/get a breather in, he should be the one to catch approaching two out. This horse has posted some big RPRs and got within 7L of Un De Seaux in a G1 (164, in his ideal conditions, having led hard, and was still staying on when headed). I thought everything else in here had questions – plenty of unexposed ones but small fields and this will be a test for plenty in here. A more unexposed one may have me but I didn’t want to be with them.

Caid Du Lin beat Speredek in this last year but there’s an 8lb swing, there’s no Sam TD on him this year, and mine has Sean on, who’s always an upgrade over fences bar 3/4 other jockeys. Tom Cannon is very good, but Sean is an upgrade imo. He may win again but he was shorter and I prefer the selection.

Fingers crossed he bounces out and pings every fence as he can. The yard are going well now, having been quiet, and he’s the bet in this.

Hopefully one of the test tips makes all, and I can dream they both do!

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Ascot ‘Through The Card’ 

As per comments below in reply to Tom.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh, just got in from a hard afternoons shopping with the misses, never a dull moment that’s for sure!! Anyway looked at the results and see you’ve smashed it again yippeee and well done to you sir! You said to give you a gentle reminder for through the card at Ascot. If you have time Josh then great and if not then no problem. Many thanks Josh and and once again well done!!

    Tom Murgatroyd 01/11/19 5:56 PM Reply


    • Hi Tom, I will have time and i’ll post anything in the comments as a reply to this. It’s likely to follow after the Rugby! 🙂 But there’s two races covered in the tips already.

      Josh 02/11/19 9:52 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, enjoy the match, COME ON ENGLAND!!

        Tom Murgatroyd 02/11/19 10:00 AM Reply


        • Hmm, well that game isn’t going to plan!

          Some darts, as a guide… (brief enough look as always bar non tipping races…!)

          12.25 – Mason Jar – 4/1

          1.00 – Quloob 7s (EW maybe, top two look good but short, no fun for track side betting and you couldn’t be confident enough to wade in)

          1.35 – On The Slopes 6s (has been backed) – looked at race tipping wise but looked tricky. This one is fit, should travel on the front end and comes from a decent race at Uttox, jumped to his right a bit there also, could give these all plenty to think about – Gordon seems to have a better quality of horse this year)

          2.10 – Speredek 11/2 – official Tip, write up to follow above

          2.45 – Adjali 9/2 / Nordic Combined 8/1 – i’ve used my stats shortlist for this one and from that these two look most interesting, in a race where the market is a good guide, or has been, 12s< SP (0/80+ those sent off bigger) 3.20 - Adrien Du Pont / Acting Lass - official tips 3.55 - Highway One O Two 10s / Llandinabo Lad 14s ... may as well have a couple of pokes in the lucky last - nothing seems to be being backed, esp near top of the market, which you may expect in a race like this. Could be open. Best of luck!

          Josh 02/11/19 11:08 AM Reply


          • Thanks Josh, weather is nuts down here but should be fun.

            Tom Murgatroyd 02/11/19 11:41 AM Reply


  • I`ll get these up quick then write ups afterwards
    14:10 ASCOT
    CAID DU LIN 5/1 gen 1pt win
    CAP ST VINCENT 9/1 1pt win
    14:45 ASCOT
    NORDIC COMBINED 12/1 365 / 9/1 gen 1pt win
    RED FORCE ONE 8/1 gen 1pt win
    15:20 ASCOT
    ADRIEN DU PONT 14/1 1pt win
    MISTER MALARKY 7/1 gen 1pt win

    Stewart 02/11/19 9:56 AM Reply


  • 4 for me today,
    16.15 Newmarket.Swift Approval 9-1 5 Places nap
    14.10 Ascot.Diego Du Charmil 9/1 4 Places
    15.20 Ascot. Whisper 66/1 5 Places
    12.50 Wetherby. Newtown Lad 15/2

    martin whittle 02/11/19 10:03 AM Reply


    • still getting bog in a few places so a winner @9-1 a place @12-1 and a n/r from the 4 selections, works for me 🙂

      martin whittle 03/11/19 1:43 AM Reply


  • Lambourn – Hendo each way – He seems very keen on On The Blind Side, 3.20 Ascot, 6/1 available now.

    My NAP of the day is Kapgarry, 1.20 Wet, 2 points each way at 5/1. Back in distance from three miles which he likely does not stay. Will make a chaser, jumped well on debut, Twister likes this one.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 02/11/19 10:30 AM Reply


  • TIP TOP
    2.10 Ascot Speredek 11/2
    ARUBA
    12.25 Ascot Mason Jar 4/1
    Colin

    cleafe 02/11/19 10:59 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    1.30 Newmarket Hammer Gun 8/1
    ORIGINAL
    1.30 Newmarket Hammer Gun 8/1
    8.00 Chelmsford Quick Monet 3/1
    Colin

    cleafe 02/11/19 11:02 AM Reply


  • Ayr 12.35 Amelia’s Dance…….. 12.0 NH
    N/m 12.55 Stars In The Sky…… 10.0 NFH
    Weth’ 1.55 Zambella……………. 9.0 NH
    Ayr 2.15 Taxmeifyoucan……… 7.0 NFH
    N/m 2.40 Heart Reef……………. 8.0 NH
    N/m 3.45 Fox Champion………. 8.0 NH
    Ayr 4.00 Style Nelson………….. 8.0 NH

    More than usual, but several are on the bubble so expecting some to drop out. Been caught out a couple of times this past few days by horses that I hadn’t put up cos I thought there was no chance of getting the price, drifting out to win.

    Back at 4 with more, I hope.

    Tim Hanson 02/11/19 12:35 PM Reply


    • Done for today.

      Tim Hanson 02/11/19 5:07 PM Reply


  • Black Corton 15:20 Ascot 1pt e/w 14/1-Keeping bets to a minimum during the early season however I thought this one looked a big price and really solid and I hoping may outclass them. Has not been out of the places in NH races going right handed other than when he lost a match against Altior. Has ran well at the track and was only beaten by one in his last 2 starts. The break won’t be an issue. Should be ridden just off the pace given they haven’t tried to front run the last 2 times but Bryony won’t have him far away. I was arguing this with Josh last night but I think Bryony would have had the choice of the 2 Nicholls runners. Has won plenty of races carrying similar weights. Obviously the mark is a concern but I think the price you’re getting makes up for that.

    NickM 02/11/19 1:05 PM Reply


    • ha, yes I do fundamentally disagree on the jockey booking and who had choice etc but that’s an aside! He is solid, and best of luck as always. A solid second behind one of mine will do just fine!! 🙂 🙂

      Josh 02/11/19 1:16 PM Reply


    • I think that the handicapper has caught up with Black Corton now and he may have to wait for a win in a race for a while. We shall see?

      I will stick with Ontheblindside here.

      martin colwell 02/11/19 1:38 PM Reply


      • I mean in fairness, he may not have, given he hasn’t had many goes in handicaps and is class, and some of his RPRs are superb, even compared to this mark – he could still have some wriggle room – I went with view something could have more in hand than him, but I could be wrong on that front. He is very solid and if he runs his race obv sets a bloody good standard. We shall find out soon enough. Just the sort of horse Nick would pick out to trump us all.

        Josh 02/11/19 1:41 PM Reply


        • Well done Josh.

          You are certainly reading these chases well

          Peter Jacks 02/11/19 2:50 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh with jonniesofa and a great SP,
    thanks very much.
    G.

    grundy 02/11/19 2:52 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Was Kapgarry not an eyecatcher?
    I wasn’t sure if you included it in your calculations as it ran in sept and in Templeparks race which you missed.
    Templeparks race 23rd sept Tue’s tracker. Templepark won last week and Kapgarry has won today. Not the biggest of prices but I have it doubled with Smiths Cross which you have highlighted. The double would be nice.

    Mike

    mickeydee 02/11/19 4:10 PM Reply


    • possibly, i’d have to check. Not in my tracker but I was clearly lax with those early notebook forays. Alas.

      Josh 02/11/19 4:42 PM Reply


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