Members Daily Post: 01/11/19 (complete: 08.25)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/109, 37p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no races of choice.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 6/38,17p, +20.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

3.50 Uttox – OVERAWED – 1 point win – 17/2 (betfS/PP) 8/1 (WH/BV/Betf) WON 8/1 (declared)> 3/1 – won well – relished going/trip/pace as I thought she may, and everything suggested fitness wouldn’t be a problem – was unproven but price was just silly given that race/questions others had. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.10, write up… A REMINDER… that if you play on the exchanges, please wait at least 30 mins+ until after the tip has been posted. It doesn’t take much at this time of the day, in a race like this, to send that price down, a price that many bookies are linked to automatically. 

I’m confused as to why this one is around 8s in this line up – yes she does have a few questions but they all do in this. Her best run came on yard debut which was seasonal reappearance last year, running on at Hereford over 16f. To my eyes she’s shaped as if worth a go over this trip and the ground should be ok, albeit that’s a slight question also. However, she’s run well on soft enough ground at Hereford/Chepstow. The yard are in decent form and this is a target track for his chasers I think – 4/11,5p in recent years, and Edwards is riding well also. I thought it was likely she’d be fit here and there’s a chance conditions bring out more.

In part the reason for having a go is that I don’t like the three ‘shorties’ at their odds and while it’s likely I’ve got one of them wrong, they’ve got questions also. The fav won a weak race LTO that isn’t that strong ‘on the figures’ – soft ground is also a question for her. She is the correct fav though. The Bailey horse has no proven record fresh, albeit not too many goes – but it’s a bit more guesswork as to fitness. The ground should be fine for her, but i’ll hope she needs it. As could Goodgirlteresa on seasonal return who also has stamina to prove, as well as fitness. The selection got to within 3/4 of a length of her last Jan at Chepstow, receiving 5lb, and today she receives 11lb. I couldn’t quite work out the price disparity albeit maybe i’ll find out soon enough.

Given the yard form, his record here, and her run on return last season, i thought it was more likely than not that she’d be fit and she could just keep going when some of the others don’t. I’m hoping she improves for conditions but a chance she doesn’t stay – however i’ll take the risk at this price in what is a fairly weak contest.

Stupid Cupid may try and make all again, Bowen may not be far away and mine has raced up there before. In any case in this 5 runner field there shouldn’t be too many excuses on that front.

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2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

12.55 – Overflow (micro class and dist) ES+ 25/1 S2A S3A 

 

Wetherby

3.05 – Born Survivor (m TJC) L w1 ES+ H1 I1 3/1 S3A# UP

3.40 –

Lucky Icon (all Hc’s,HcH) w2 G3 14/1 S1 UP

Flegmatik (m TJC) w2 ES+ H3 5/1 S3A 2nd 

Zig Zag (all Hc’s,HcH) 16/1 S2A  UP

 

FLAT……….None

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

1.55 Weth – Senor Lombardy (11/1<) 12/1

3.05 Weth – Happy Diva (10/1<) 5/1 2nd

LTO Win Starting Points (12/1<)

3.50 Uttox – Stupid Cupid  L 7/4 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

3.50 Uttox – Lady Master (17/2< guide) 11/4 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW #1

Saturday Big Race Trends/Stats/Trainer pointers : READ HERE>>> (also in Trends Thursday post)

NEW #2 

Something for you ALL-WEATHER Fans… a sort of Winter Trainer Track Profiles >>>

READ HERE>>>

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • Josh, you are getting the analysis on your favoured races right a lot of the time and that is to be applauded! Fine job, keep it up!

    dougandnicky 31/10/19 10:03 PM Reply


    • thanks Doug, yep I feel like i’m generally reading them well and homing in on the right ones. With any luck a bundle of winners soon enough!

      Josh 01/11/19 9:34 AM Reply


  • Newtown Boy Wetherby 15:40 1pt e/w-Looked a solid bet. Beat some very good horses on his win last year two of which are now rated in the 140s before losing his way a little but still running with credit. Makes his handicap debut over hurdles having won over chases last time out on his debut for Keith Dalgleish. This race has normally gone to a northern trainer in recent years and Hughes has won it 2 of the past 4 years. Should either lead or have him prominent. Favourite is priced on his chase win LTO but hasn’t won a hurdle race for almost 3 years and looked a bad price. The stable is absolutely flying. Slight concern over the ground but shouldn’t be too testing and it’s more of an unknown than a negative as going by breeding he should be better on this surface.

    NickM 01/11/19 9:08 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS and ORIGINAL

    No bets today

    cleafe 01/11/19 10:19 AM Reply


  • A rare sortie into the the world of 2yo’s for me today,
    Newmarket 1-40. Orlaith 16-1 has won a listed race in good/soft and was only 2.75l behind Aberama Gold( who is well fancied in the Horris Hill Stakes tomorrow) in the Rockingham lto, in that same race the lightly raced Stormy Girl 28-1 came 5th and there could well be more improvement to come.
    Orlaith 0.5 pt ew
    Stormy Girl 0.25 pt ew

    martin whittle 01/11/19 10:24 AM Reply


  • TIP TOP
    4.15 Newcastle Gottardo 10/1
    ARUBA
    No bet
    Colin

    cleafe 01/11/19 11:05 AM Reply


  • A few iv’e had small ew’s on not mentioned above that might be worth a look,
    Newmarket.
    3-25. Frontispiece 9-1
    4-00. Gossiping 33-1. Waarif 14-1
    Wetherby.
    1-20. Ballyfarson 25-1
    1-55. Senor Lombardy 16-1 tiny win bet
    2-30. Marie Magdelena 6-1
    Uttoxeter.
    12-55. Wenceslaus 6-1
    1-30. A Perfect Gift 7-2 win
    2-40. Captain Moirette 7-1 now a win bet

    martin whittle 01/11/19 12:43 PM Reply


  • Lambourn trainers positive comments update end October:

    Warren Greatrex – Win +2; Each Way -4 (But he had a 12/1 winner that he was negative about that is not included).

    Hendo – Win +3; Each Way +0.75.

    Jamie Snowden – Win -1.25; Each Way -2.

    So nothing yet but I will see how they go for the rest of 2019.

    Today they have:

    Greatrex:

    Win – 1.20 Wetherby, North Star Oscar.
    Each Way – 2.40 Uttoxeter, Western Ryder.

    I am also going to track two or three trainers on the all weather from today.

    Daniel Kubler – Each Way – 5.25 Nc, Arishka.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 01/11/19 12:58 PM Reply


  • N/m 1.05 Brad The Brief……… 7.0 NH
    DR…1.45 Triplicate……………. 6.0 NH
    Utto’ 4.20 Bran…………………. 10.0 NH

    Back at 4.00

    Tim Hanson 01/11/19 1:20 PM Reply


    • Nothing for tonight from me.

      Tim Hanson 01/11/19 5:20 PM Reply


  • Couple of qualifiers from Josh’ winter AW pack running today
    Haslam- Newcastle 4.15 Melgate Majeure 10/1
    J Bolger Dundalk 7.15 Aisteoir 5/1
    Danny

    freezing1 01/11/19 3:34 PM Reply


  • Much appreciated Danny

    aaron l 01/11/19 3:41 PM Reply


  • Yes, thanks Danny. Melgate was one of my two selections for Newcastle today before you posted it as a stat pack selection so even happier now 🙂

    My other bet is Castle Quarter in the 7.30.

    Good luck to all.

    Mark Curtis 01/11/19 4:03 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh!

    dougandnicky 01/11/19 5:12 PM Reply


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