Members Daily Post: 31/10/19 (complete)

write ups, Test tip x3, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/109, 37p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/37,16p, +12.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

3.25 Strat –

#1 KINGS ODYSSEY – 1 point win – 14/1 (betf) 12/1 (bet365/BV/Boyle) 2nd 12/1 

#2 TOWN PARKS – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/BV/Betf/Boyle) UP

Ah, well annoying given the write up and i’ve left the winner at 8s from in effect shortlist of 3 – question to a degree was the ground but soft LTO and he was proven fit/thoroughly unexposed which wasn’t the case with two above. I’ve got him wrong at an ok price. Tricky, one that got away but more positive than neg there – Kings has run well, Town wasn’t there to win given how he was ridden imo and will no doubt strip fitter and is one to watch NTO. That race could throw up a few winners. 

4.25 Strat –

#3 LORD DU MESNIL – 1 point win– 20/1 (bet365/BV) 18/1 (betfS/PP) 2nd 14/1 – painful viewing, heartbreaking. Jumped so well, needed one more at the last and he wins it, alas, you have to jump and winner did it much better, sealed it on the short run in,was coming back at he line but came too soon. 

as of 09.13 – that’s all for today, write ups at bottom of post…

 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Stratford

3.25 – Marienstar (all Hc’s) w2 18/1 S3A UP

 

Bonus Irish

Clonmel

2.40 – Holy Motivation (all Hc’s) w2 H3 12/1 UP

4.15 – Tiger Twenty Two (all Hc’s) w2 H1  4/1 WON 5/1

 

*

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister

3.25 Strat – Rocco (m1) 8/1  WON 8/1>7s

C Longsdon 

3.25 Strat – Western Miller (12/1<) 20/1 

4.25 Strat – Shanroe In Milan (12/1<)  13/2 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.25 Strat – Town Parks (10/1<) 12/1 UP, ran ok but suspect will be better NTO

 

Chase Eye-Catcher 2019 

4.25 Strat- Financial Outcome 3/1 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW #1… Micro Monday Post… READ HERE>>> (should also be visible in the ‘Micro Monday tab when logged into members’ area)

*

NEW #2… Tracker Tuesday PostREAD HERE>>>

*

Write up…

3.25 –

Kings Odyssey – I couldn’t resist these two at 12s. Yes this one’s 10, but only his 12th handicap chase start and the easiest race he’s run in for quite some time. In fact he has the best handicap chase form in this line up- not sure much in here could do what he has in Cheltenham Grade 3s in the last couple of years and if he ran to anywhere near that level of placed form, this lot could be in trouble. The ground is perfect for him and the trip is fine, especially if this is a war of attrition. I think he will be fit – Williams has readied a few in recent weeks, both those having first racecourse run and returners, and for these owners. Given he’s 10 I do wonder if they may just want to get some wins in him now, and to boost his confidence, and he’s now 2lb below his last winning mark. It could be this is a prep for a return to Chelt next month but given how lightly raced he is it would make sense if he’s ready to go on every racecourse visit. He was fit enough on return last season, chasing home War Sound at Aintree on good ground which is far from ideal, but he was a progressive rival and the front two miles clear. He has the ability to win this well, and at 12s was worth the risk.

Town Parks – as was this one who hits a test zone angle above and he’s another who should relish this ground – all his best chase runs have been in soft+ inc a facile win at Hereford where he beat a progressive one for Tizzard who’d go on to win a C2 at Sandown a few runs later. Dicky rode him that day and I thought the booking could be significant, esp as Warren has one in here that he’s ridden before and bar those Heskin rides for his retained owners, I think he would have the choice to ride if he wanted, esp with no Hobbs horse in here also. Fitness is a question, built into the price, but the yard can ready them and he’s never returned in ‘ideal conditions’ – he ran well on return at Carlisle a couple of years back over 16f, which was too sharp but he plugged on. The yard were not right last season and i’m still on the fence as to whats going on there, but this 8 year old should have more races in him and he looks handicapped to go in again, and 2 of his 3 recent RPRs have been in the 130s, in races which have produced subsequent winners. He’s a trier who’s generally consistent.

Of the rest… well I didn’t like the top of the market at the prices… King’s could progress again but has fitness and stamina to prove (unknown, could improve for it) as well as deep ground- he’s also been whacked in the weights and needs to step forward again. He wasn’t overpriced for me and neither was Skeltons – he does have a good record fresh and conditions are fine – but 9lb higher than his last win, but he is unexposed – of the two i’d fancy him more. Newland’s has too many questions for me at 4s/5s, esp given he has been keen and his best form is over shorter inc in France. He could improve for it though and the yard are in fine form. I may pay the price for taking all three on but I wanted to –

Rocco is interesting – you’d think he will demolish this mark one day, especially when you look through some of his novice hurdle form – it’s very good, esp that Chepstow win – albeit it was slowly run but that couldn’t have worked out better – Bennys Bridge and Reserve Tank in behind, to name just two. He’s one to watch and I hope he doesn’t bolt up today – another with questions over t he going and he does have stamina to prove – he ran ok LTO until coming down late – Sam takes over – he’s a danger, but I was lured in by bigger prices and I want to see a tad more over fences- but today could be the day. I was on the fence at 8s and I may regret not getting off it – he didn’t show up too well on my various ratings pointers (HRB/Inform), which did help swing it at his price.

He would be the ‘annoying’ winner in this line up at the prices.

I was happy to leave the rest for various reasons and if one takes it I wasn’t near to them. Most/all of the biggies want better ground on the evidence to date and odd one has fitness/wellbeing questions etc.

Pace… Johnson may have his forward enough in a race with a fair bit of pace on paper at least, but he may track it, and take it up when some of those start to flounder- the four front runners/pace pushers are all 25s+. Kings O may be mid division but his class/cruising speed may be enough to be forward enough and this may be the sharpest he wants it.

*

4.25 – Lord Du Mesnil …

A proper poke but alas I couldn’t resist 20s. He is a 20 odd race maiden but has threatened to strike in the mud a few times and it could be he’s just taken time to mature etc – or he’s just a bit soft. However, he has some decent form to his name and he has to have this ground. He was a neck behind the well regarded Beakstown for example. He was giving Debecce (140s) at run for his money in that Catterick race before landing steeply 3 out – he hadn’t been asked a question there. In a few of his races he’s gone off too hard in front also, inc at Newcastle. His mark his dropping and LTO was the best he’s jumped, and he cruised around there at Ffos Las – but the ground wasn’t soft enough and he didn’t put down on it when asked- he does hit it hard. There’s an omitted fence here which will probably help him but he should travel well enough on front end and the slow pace here may help. The yard can ready them – albeit doesn’t have loads of runners these days and the training may be lower down the priorities (Hobson a bloodstock agent also I think and poss other French interests) but he does know what he’s doing, to an extent.

In any case at 20s I wanted to have a dart, especially as the race felt very open with plenty of holes in the top of the market.

Financial Outcome- a notebook horse from LTO but he has questions over the ground and of more concern is this track/trip – i’m not sure he’s quick enough and it may be too sharp. I could be wrong on that front and he will be a smart chaser, maybe hacking up today, but at 10/3 I was happy to leave him. That is short given the unknowns.

Black Tulip has a few questions esp on the ground (in hncps, form on better) and a fitness question – no record fresh, albeit the yard are in fine form.

Du Soleil – one for Venetia and if he was running tomorrow would hit the November angle for her- I suspect he will be fit but he’s been a free going sort who takes a big step up in trip- i’m guessing really as to whether he will get home, which makes 6s seem only ok. Unexposed though with some ability.

Shanroe In Milan – he was high up on my list of those at single figures – he has his conditions but he’s only 1/15 and doesn’t like being in front/in a battle to my eyes. He is fit though and should handle the ground – I can see the case but again at 6s was a bit on the fence. Probably the one I fear near the top, but in saying that i’m not sure he’s that good or his form is that strong.

Vaughans is unexposed but first run on anything softer than good, so I can leave at 7s and if he wins, so be it. Yes you can look at breeding etc etc, but I’d want a bigger price if the horse is a complete unknown on the going under rules. His point win was also on good.

Billy Bronco is just slow and needs a more galloping track I think – he could have a ‘regional national’ marathon chase in him in soft/heavy, back at Exeter maybe, or Ffos Las. A fitness question and this could just happen too quick, but there could be more from him this season.

I really can’t have the other two for various reasons. Moore’s needs better ground I think, and a fitness Q, and Oliver’s is 0/14 and his form isn’t as good as many in here.

So, that’s that.

Mine should race ‘up there’ if here to run his race, shouldn’t be held up anyway, but maybe they will be more patient, tracking the pace- giving him a sight of his fences. He could well UR/fall, but he is a 20s shot for a reason. But he could make that look silly.

*

 

 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. TIP TOP
    4.05 Lingfield Sonnet Rose 7/2
    8.10 Kempton Viola Park 4/1
    ARUBA
    3.55 Stratford The Raven’s Return 13/2
    8.10 Kempton Viola Park 4/1
    Colin

  2. Strat’ 1.45 Tide Times………. 11.0 NH
    Clon’ 2.40 Holy Motivation… 11.0 NFH
    Ling’ 3.00 Convertible……….. 9.0 NH
    Strat’ 4.25 De Forgotten One. 10.0 NFH

    Back @ 4.00 with the evening update.

    1. Kemp’ 5.40 Lola Paige…………. 13.5 NFH
      Chel’ 5.55 Global Destination.. 7.0 NFH
      Chel’ 7.55 Nigel Nott…………… 8.0 NH

  3. Hi Josh, didn’t see the races today but clearly very unlucky at very decent prices. You can’t win them all Josh but you are definitely reading them about right, well done to you! I know this is a very busy time for you but I’m off to Ascot on Saturday and was wondering if there was any chance of a “through the card” please. Not a problem if you don’t have the time Josh, but thankyou anyway and keep up the great work.
    Many thanks, Tom.

    1. Hi Tom,
      A painful yet positive afternoon, in a way! They’ll be an avalanche at some point. I’ll keep dreaming of my +90 point Jan in 2017 I think it was!! 🙂 I feel like i’m reading it right, and as importantly reading top of market correct etc, getting them stuffed is half the battle and increases chances of landing on others. I’ll get enough Roccos right over time to make it pay, just on the day always more annoying when you know you were close – but i’ve gone for the bigger odds ones, which is the reason I backed the winner at Fakenham, choice of two and the price made the play. That’s the game – I think if i’m going for two though, trying to have the race fit/thoroughly unexposed one onside when 8s+ is the move, so got that wrong. Still, he could have clouted one and I have a 12/1 winner!

      Yep i’ll try my best – Saturday’s are always busy – and this Saturday is like a Festival day! So many good chases. But i’m in on Sat – i’ll be tipping in sodexo I suspect – and I’ll try and highlight 1 horse per race. I’ll try and pull together the best from the comments also maybe and get something up by 11.30

      Do remind me on Saturday’s post when it goes up Friday evening.
      Josh

      1. Very unlucky today … this game is all about ifs & buts but Lord Du Mesnil was agonisingly close to being a really nice winner. A good jump at the last by the winner (and an ordinary jump by LDM) was the difference.
        Hopefuly a nice priced winner will arrive soon enough

  4. Thankyou Josh, much appreciated. If time gets tight then not a problem, I will sharpen the pin just in case.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.