Members Daily Post: 30/10/19 (complete:09.06)

Test tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone, Tracker Tuesday

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/109, 37p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/34,14p, +15.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

3.40 Fakenham – THOMAS TODD – 1 point win 10/1 (bet365) 9/1 (gen) WON 7/1 (dec/still with x3 bookies 30 mins after posting) > 9/2 > made all/never in much doubt, dangers were in front of him- but moderate form and most of those were questionable at their fences, I won’t be taking any from that albeit the 2nd is a stayer, maybe they’ll ride him more forward soon – more galloping track also. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.52, write up incoming…

(update, as of 09.05 7s across the board – must have been tipped somewhere, or some marked accounts are piling in) 

I didn’t think TT should be 9s in this line up, that looked a few points too big. Laura Morgan is 14/68,18p , +108 with all her chasers in the last 2 years and it would be welcome if this one could add to the pile. This is only his 5th chase start and while he’s clearly moderate, his best career run came after 204 days in December last year, hacking up in a way which suggested there should be more to come. The front two were clear there and the second has won since. He then went close over CD, ridden more prominently which I hope they do again, losing narrowly to Chequered View, who hacked up at Worcester a few weeks back. I think he should appreciate this ‘good’ (winter good) ground and he’s clearly taken a while to come to hand – he could progress further this season. His run at Doncaster was ok. I’m not sure he fully stays 26f but in any case he had higher rated horses in front who were in form/ progressive also. I doubt he appreciated soft when last seen, and possibly not the CP either. I thought there was enough to go on at 9s and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t primed to run to his best. We shall see if that’s good enough.

It looks an open enough race. Double Court is solid/consistent and that may be enough but gets a 7lb claimer now – trainer/jock are 3/49 in handicaps, 0/11 over fences. At 2s I can leave but he’s the right fav. Vaughan’s is more interesting than him but he’s usually held up and does run as if this sharp 2m5f on good could happen too quickly. If it doesn’t, he should be going close also. He’s now 0/8 with plenty of seconds next to his name, so does have the odd question in the context of his price.

Between The Waters is exposed, Virnon has a few too many questions and guessing as to fitness.

The Drone is interesting for his red hot yard. He looks best fresh also and a big run from him wouldn’t surprise me. I was on the fence as to whether 5s was value or not, given he was outpaced over this CD on his only chase start under rules. But he’s unexposed, and there should be more to come over fences. His hurdles form has been solid enough but that’s what he’s rated on, and does need to step up here.

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2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT 

Nottingham

1.20 – 

Mustarrid (all hncps) H1 7/2  WON

Dubai Acclaim (all hncps + m dist/age) ES+G1 10/3 S3A 2nd

2.20 – Samovar (all hncps) H3  8/1

4.20 – Sociologist (all hncps + m class) H3 9/2 

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JUMPS

Fakenham 

3.10 – 

The Darley Lama (all hncps) 9/2 

The Detainee (hncp h) ES+ H1 G3 5/2 S3A# UP

 

Taunton 

None.

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers 

Twister

2.40 Fake – Locker Room Talk (m2, 16/1< guide) L 9/1  UP

3.40 Fake – Double Court (m1)  2/1 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.40 Fake – Fleur Irlandaise (9/1< guide) 9/1 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW #1… Micro Monday Post… READ HERE>>> (should also be visible in the ‘Micro Monday tab when logged into members’ area)

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NEW #2… Tracker Tuesday PostREAD HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Lamh Ar Lamh Taunton 16:00 1.5pt win 6/1 (7/1 with 365)- In a race full of exposed types this one is making her handicap chase debut having made her first chase start last time out. Whilst she was pulled up that’s hardly a surprise given the front 3 are rated 3 stone higher and both have ran well off those marks. Despite that I thought her jumping looked solid for a debut. She now makes his handicap debut at a track where she has 2 wins and a second from three runs. The handicapper was also generous enough to drop her 4lb for that meaning she is back to the mark he last won off, around here. In between she hasn’t really ran a bad race. Her regular jockey returns who is solid value for his claim and gets on well with her and the trainer had a winner and a second yesterday. The only minor concern is the slight drop back in trip given her winning has been over 2f further but I think we are getting enough of a price in the context of the race to have a go here.

  2. TIP TOP
    2.20 Nottingham Show Palace 10/3
    6.50 Wolverhampton Enzo 15/2
    ARUBA
    5.40 Kempton Rosardo Senorita 11/4
    Colin

  3. COLINS BETS
    4.00 Taunton Howlongisafoot 7/2
    8.10 Kempton Noble Gift 5/1
    ORIGINAL
    4.00 Taunton Howlongisafoot 7/2
    Colin

  4. Two positives from Lambourn today.

    Hendo – 3.10 Fak, Hijack, win at 6/4 now.

    Greatrex – 4.30 Tau, Madam Malina, each way at 5/1 now.

    Good luck.

  5. Fake’ 1.40 Two Blondes……………. 10.0 NFH
    Fake’ 3.10 Regarding Ruth……….. 7.0 NFH

    Back at 4.00

    1. thanks William, I did assume he would just UR at the last given some of my luck recently/no. of 2nds but it all evens out – that was generally fun to watch. A welcome winner after a mini wobble, but i’ll always have plenty of those.
      Josh

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