Micro Monday: 28/10/19

Long lay-offs + Harry Fry >>>

 

Fit as a butcher’s dog?

In recent days there’s been a few chasers winning first time out, off monster lay-offs

Petite Power (Fergal O’Brien – 516 days) , Bering Upsun (James Ewart – 640 days) and Burton’s Well (Venetia Williams -664 days) to name three.

Training methods/facilities are more advanced than they used to be, and it seems many trainers can ready a chaser off a lengthy absence.

This sort of information is always useful to know. In the ‘old days’ (even just a few years ago) a chaser returning after 366+ days off may have been one of the first discarded from analysis. Not anymore.

So, which trainers should we note?

The following table highlights those trainers with 3 or more winners in handicap chases (inc novice handicaps), returning after 366-1460 days off, with a positive return to SP. Stats are from the beginning of 2010.

 

Collectively >>>

 

Other trainers of note >>>

Tim Vaughan

  • 9/2 or shorter SP: 7/14, 10p, +7 BFSP

Venetia Williams

  • 2m4f + , 16/1< (guide) : 5/25, 10p, +21 BFSP

 

***

Harry Fry 

Harry’s hit form in recent weeks and he’s one of the finest trainers around I think. I always get the impression that everything in his operation, including the campaigning of horses is very considered and well thought out.

I’ve found a chase angle ‘starting point’ that will hopefully help solve more puzzles in the future >>>

  • Harry Fry
  • Handicap Chase/ Handicap Novice Chase
  • Horse had 0-1 run previous 90 days
  • Horse had 0-2 chase wins
  • 10/1 or shorter SP (ALL his handicap chasers in this time sent off 11/1+ are 0/39,4p)
  • 2014>

It’s a fairly selective ‘way in’ but clearly they’re worth noting/analysing, especially when relatively well fancied. Given the angle they’ll generally be unexposed over fences, which is the place to focus. There’s been nothing to shout about in 2019 as yet, but an angle to track I think. The 90 Day stats suggest he has them fairly well forward and on their return or next start has been the time to catch them, systematically at least. There’s plenty of winners with 2+ runs in 90 days  (8/52, 19p, -15 SP), you just have to pick and chose, albeit the place stats are fine.

*

That’s all for this week’s Micro Monday.

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

3 Responses

  1. I have a profit making angle for Harry Fry – his runners at Exeter. Two winners the last meeting from three winners to add to profits for this one.

    1. How long have you been backing those?

      Yep a simple yet effective one… 96 bets / 34 wins / 61p / 35% sr / +97 BFSP … and no monsters as such, a few in the 12s-16s SP region.
      +66 of that coming in novice hurdles.

      Good spot.
      Josh

      1. I did not pick it up until February this year but it has worked nicely so far.

        You just have to keep searching and testing to find them.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.