Members Daily Post: 29/10/19 (complete)

Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/109, 37p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None… the 26f Novice Handicap Chase from Chepstow is the only possible, but given the race type/profiles of those running, i’ll leave it. Far too much educated guesswork for me, one to watch with the notebook handy imo.  

I’ve watched back the agony of Ask Cory, and i’ve just put it in the ‘it happens’ box – losing by a fast finishing 1/4L is never much fun, but when you’re in a losing run, such agony is amplified. 18 2nd/3rds and counting, a few more will start getting their head in front soon enough. A shame it wasn’t as soft as maybe I thought it would be, but he was 1L off the winner 5 out, before turning for home, and Heskin has been at him from then on all the way up the straight – he just wasn’t quick enough at that stage in the race. He’d have probably won if jumping 3 out better. Albeit Heskin never gets stuck in like a Sean Bowen or a Johnson does. He was the best handicapped horse in the race, on the day, but alas, that’s racing. Maybe on another day he’d have won, and I don’t know why Heskin didn’t try to hold a prominent position, even if he ended up dropping back due to being a slow boat!  He should have a moderate slog in him somewhere and i’ll try not to miss him, odds allowing. The less said about Ewart’s the better – I suspect something will come to light (breathing/or he bled/bloods off) given how he stopped, but he jumped/travelled well until that point. 

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Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/33,13p, +8.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Catterick

2.05 –

Magical Effect (micro age) G3 7/1 

Zip (m dist and age) 4/1 

2.35 – Kensington Art (m age) H3 I1 G1 6/1 S1 S4 S6  UP

3.10 –

Gabrial The Devil (m age) I3 9/1 

Captain Jameson (3yo+,m dist) H1 5/1 

4.15 – Chickenfortea (all Hc’s) G3 4/1 

 

JUMPS……….None

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister

1.45 Chep – Rizzardo (m1) 10/1 UP

4.00 Chep – Bring Back Charlie (m4, 11/2<) 10/1 UP

4.30 Chep – Mr Stan (m2, 16/1< guide)  20/1

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

1.45 Chep – Len Brennan 5/1 3rd / Monbeg Aquadude 10/1  UP (both any odds)

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Long Lay-Off Trainers (New, as per Micro Monday post)

1.45 Chep – Apollo Creed 25/1 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

NEW… Micro Monday Post… READ HERE>>> (should also be visible in the ‘Micro Monday tab when logged into members’ area)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. Random question but does anyone know how often race winners have been backed in and how often they’ve drifted out? Or how often the favourite the morning or night before goes off as favourite?

  2. 1:45 Chepstow
    Monbeg Aquadude is very interesting here for me. Michael Scudamore has a fantastic record with handicap chasers at this time of year, and he can ready one. In fact with handicap chasers in October-March, returning from 90+ days off the track he is 10/38, 16 places (26.3% strike rate) and he did have Mysteree go in the other day who fits that mould. It’s the step up in trip that made me look closer and I’m hoping it does the trick, especially combined with the first time cheekpieces which should keep him focussed. He’s been off the track for nearly a year and that solitary run last season was after another 599 days off the track so maybe there was some sort of issue but the horse loves soft ground it appears and we hardly got that kind of ground last season, maybe they were just biding their time with him – he is still only 8 and a very lightly raced 8 year old at that. There should be improvement to come and hopefully the combination of step up in trip, cheekpieces and the wind op can bring that improvement about. The thing that made this a bet for me was looking back at his point to point win. Obviously that was over 3 miles and that was on yielding ground, and the horses in second and third were River Wylde – subsequent Supreme Novice’s Hurdle 3rd who’s rated 147 over fences – and Some Chaos who is rated 145 over the larger obstacles. Whilst point to point form doesn’t always translate perfectly, this rather makes a mark of 112 for Monbeg Aquadude look extremely tempting and I’ll be having a go today but also keeping the faith through the winter months because at some point he is surely going to win off that mark, if the time out isn’t a signifier of a troubled/longer term injured/gone at the game horse.

    1. GL Matthew, I can see the case for him, and give he’s a test angle qual for MS above, I did have a ponder when flicking through the race. He was 12/14s or so, and has been nibbled at. That test angle has a solid 26% win sr, and is 5/19, 6p this year.

      I believe he’s also the ‘chaser to follow’ highlighted in the guest to follow post, by Scudamore himself – which I noted. I concluded plenty of guesswork, both for him/and race, but in reality the price prob allowed a dabble- I don’t like the numerous long breaks, and now wind op/headgear, he’s clearly had problems, but also maybe they have just taken their time- I suspect they will want to get stuck in/start getting some wins in him now. This test etc could transform him and clearly connections will be hoping his point form is a genuine reflection of ability/whats to come.

      An interesting race but you’d have to think he’ll show himself to be better than this mark, and for your sake I hope it’s today, and i’m left regretting another that’s got away haha. Albeit in these races i’m trying to stick with proven winners/gone close fresh, esp in race code, for those chasers having first run back.

      I liked the Williams horse also – maybe not for today – i’d be more interested if it were a bog, but if they can keep him sound he shapes as if he’s muddy staying chaser in the making. Previous form suggests this may happen quick enough for him mind. We shall see.
      An informative race that you’d think will produce a few future chase winners.
      Josh

      1. Hadn’t noticed he was highlighted by Scudamore so that adds a bit of confidence but like you say I’d rather be on today and lose a point than watch him win at this sort of price

        1. Yep, I fear I may regret not having that very attitude last night/this morning! 🙂 Another Burton’s Well in 3, 2, 1…

  3. Warren Greatrex has two in the 1.45 at Chepstow. Reading the Lambourn site he seems to favour Carnspindle, 8/1 now and so an each way poke.

  4. wasn’t going to bother today but got back earlier than i thought so having a quick flick through,
    Catterick
    12-30. Rapid Russo 9-2, only previous winner in race and that was over cd in soft ground, highly tried lto in c2 over 6f drops back in distance and class.
    1-00. Old girl Economic Crisis looks overpriced at 20-1 small ew
    back with some more later.

    1. couple more at Catterick.
      2-05. Sparkealot 9-2
      4-15. Vallarta 4-1
      just a 50p ew patent at Chepstow prices bfsb.
      1-15. Late Shipment 20-1 5 places
      2-50. At First Light 9-1
      4-00. Market Road 20-1

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