Members Daily Post: 28/10/19 (complete)

write ups…All tips – Test tip x1, Chase tip x1, Section 2 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/109, 37p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.45 Ayr – ASK CORY – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) 2nd, 3/4L painful – fast finishing second, best handicapped horse in the race on the day, alas, didn’t get going in time/wasn’t quick enough tactically/line came too soon – inexperience costing him at the odd fence – worth a go over 26f on that evidence, and an even more galloping/stiffer course. Ran there like a dour stayer. I wish he’d have had him closer but maybe that was his comfort zone speed. Nearly, but not quite. The place horses will turn into wins again at some point. 

as of 08.43, that’s all for main chase tips

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/33,13p, +8.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

2.10 Ayr – ETTILA DE SIVOLA – 1 point win – 7/2 (SkyB/BetfS/PP/Unib/BetF) UP 2/1 – well backed, awful run, as if he’s got a problem to my eyes given how quickly he stopped – has had a wind op, maybe deeper problems there – won’t have been fitness, and given the result, would suggest Hughes did have the choice. Not one you could follow with much confidence after that for the foreseeable future. He travelled/jumped very well until 1st in the straight, so hopefully they sort him out as he should have chases in him. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.56, write ups..

*

Ask Cory –

This is a moderate chase and I could make a case for one of the unexposed/could be anything ones (Asking for Answers is the other, albeit I want to see more, he’s more in the ‘searching’ for answers bracket at the moment, but interesting to a point)

This Irish raider could decimate this mark at some point over fences and he will be a much better chaser than hurdler. He’s placed in an soft ground Irish point and his last two runs have been interesting. Two starts back he was visibly outpaced, pushed along hands and heels for a while, but stayed on well enough into second. I’m not sure his jockey picked up his stick. The winner was progressive, coming on the back of a win, and he went close off 94 NTO, and ran well in a chase after that off 102. Ask Cory made his chase debut LTO, again never put into it at 33s, but stayed on well enough, and jumped well to my eyes. Interesting he booked Sean Flanagan there, a top jockey, to give a decent introduction to fences. Both of those last two runs were over shorter, on better ground, and at tight tracks – I think 3m, on softer ground, at this more galloping track/long straight, should be right up his street.

I think it’s significant he’s booked the excellent and in-form (5/20,10p 14 days) Adrian Heskin, and they are 2/19,3p together, the wins back in Ireland.

His sire, Ask, is interesting… his progeny are 6/27,10p at Ayr, and his chasers/aged 6 are 4/19,5p in the last 730 days. They also seem better with cut, his chasers 5/25,12p over fences in soft/heavy to date.

He arrives fit, in form (has been running on/going forwards) and looks a unit to the eye. He’s the most interesting in here by some way – I thought at 5s he was worth a go, given that there’s a chance he decimates these…

If he doesn’t…well it’s open, and I can see why Nick has gone for Attention Please with his Each-way eyes. He ran well in this last year after a PU on return, so at the prices that wouldn’t put you off – he jumps/stays, and handles the ground. All of Dobbin’s horses are worth watching now, given the virus they had, nearly shutting the yard down last season – she’s had some biggies go in already in recent days and any poor form last season could almost be ignored from her string. However, he does have well-being to prove and is open to attack from something more progressive, but is 20s.

I’m trying to avoid the more exposed horses as a sort of long term strategy, which will start working better when I land on a few more. The stars have threatened to align, but through my own temporary mediocrity, haven’t just yet.

The rest – well I couldn’t touch them with stolen money and if one of them wins, so be it. It is a mediocre race after all. Damiens D is 11 and got away with soft LTO, but he’ll try from the front. I can’t have him at his price. Nor can I Orioninverness who’s moderate, slow and has stamina to prove – there will be stronger stayers in this. He can beat me at 3/1. So can Nortonthorpelegend – he is what he is, I suppose he’s fit, in form, a CD winner- so of the others at the top he’s more interesting – but on his 30th chase start. You’re simply hoping a repeat of an old performance is good enough, which it may be, but not the sort I want to be backing, and certainly under 8s.

The rest have even more questions.

I really think this is about the Irish raider and whether he’s here to run his race, and whether he does. He shapes like a stayer and could be chucked in. Of course he’s inexperienced and has to get round etc. If he flounders, i’ll cheer on Attention Please, albeit ironically, given Nicks tipped him and I haven’t lost faith, for my pocket, if not my tipping pride, his would be the better winner! 🙂

(as an aside, we know Nick’s had a tough time punting wise, plenty of it simply down to variance after last year’s madness  +530 points of madness don’t forget – but in 2 days he’s eliminated his September’s losses – that’s how quick things can change in this game with value eyes. And if AP wins, he may be in profit for the year!)

PACE… Damiens will try and lead, a few others can push the pace inc Attention Please – Ask Glory – well I dont think he’s been there to compete and hasn’t had the conditions to do so on recent runs – he should find it easier to hold a position, and I can’t think he’s come over here to be held up last and never sighted – in any case, if i’ve got him right it  probably won’t matter what position he takes up.

*

Ettila De Sivola –

I wouldn’t have looked at this race were it not for one of the three guest ‘horses to follow’ blog posts – this one was highlighted by his trainer as his ‘chaser to follow’ – interesting enough given the number of young chasers he could have highlighted I suspect. There’s a chance he obliterates these today and makes 7/2 look a gift, so I didn’t want to miss out.

The horse has won twice fresh before, inc on racecourse debut and then hurdle debut after 300+ days. He could be best fresh. Ewart is starting to hit some form, with a winner in recent days returning after 600+ days off, that one on first chase start in a Novice handicap. Fitness won’t be a problem here. I like the fact they switch to fences fairly quickly and his breeding screams chaser. His form has worked out ok, but chasing will be his game, and conditions look ideal.

I was initially concerned that Hughes wasn’t on – I wasn’t sure if he’d have had the choice – always a question worth asking in any race up North – in fact focusing on his rides on any given day wouldn’t be the worst ‘way in’ in the world. However, I then spotted that trainer/jockey are a perfect 2/2 over fences in the last 5 years. Interesting. And it’s a long way for Nick to come.

I’ve also checked Ewarts stats… in handicap novice chases, horses having first run over fences under rules, and first run of the season… he’s 4/16, 7p with that ‘profile’ – improving to 3/6,4p with those sent off 4/1 or shorter. Solid.

So, all in all, there was enough there for me to go on at 7/2. I get the impression he ‘could’ blow this lot away.

If he doesn’t…well it’s a novices handicap chase with horses who should show more one day. In saying that, the Richards horse is now 0/11,7p, 0/6,4p over fences- he’s no world beater and for this sort of race is looking more ‘exposed’ (relatively) and 9/4 looks short.  Assum is 0/6,1p over fences, but Kirby is about to spark into life, but he is what he is I think- maybe this trip will bring out more – another trainer, like so many, who can ready them after a long break. Elliot’s is 0/7 but first chase run – hard to know what to make of him, not sure he’s a world beater in the making and if he had another trainer/jockey listed next to him would probably be twice the price. Alexander’s often need the run, but odd one can be ready, albeit the yard are not in form just yet. Interesting Keighley sends this one up here- but he does have one in the proceeding race with the champ on, and maybe there was just room in the horsebox. He was a disappointing 6/4 fav LTO – again his first chase start, so you can never rule out.

Arguably the selection has shown the best level of form to date anyway – I suspect he will be much the best of these over fences, in time, and with any luck will kick start his chasing career in fine style.

I really do need to start making better use of the numerous horses i’m building up notes for/are in trackers, and while it may end in tears today, the future’s promising, and it will all come together soon enough 🙂

Pace – hard to know in these races as you’d tend not to throw inexperienced chasers at fences by hurtling away on the front end – the selection has raced prominently/led and there should be no excuses in this 6 runner race.

*

 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ayr

2.45 –

Nortonthorpelegend (micro class) w2 H3 I3 9/2  WON 9/2 

Damiens Dilemma (m TJC) L w1 H1 I3 4/1  UP

3.20 – Frame Rate HCH) I3 14/1 

*

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW! (experiment)

L – you may notice an next to a few horses above (Damiens D today) – this is only an experiment but, with eyes on those stats qualifiers in chases – I thought it may be useful/interesting to highlight those horses who could lead – i’ve used the Geegeez Pace maps and have simply added the L next to those who have led at least once on last four starts – as simple as that. It IS NOT an indication they may get an easy lead, there could be other pace pressure in their races.

It saves you trawling through any pace maps and in reality even on busy days is a 10 minute job – you can ignore these for now, but a) it could help with shortlisting/your analysis b) I can hope that in time it may become a ‘systematic’ angle, but the jury is out. As any long suffering readers will know, if you’d backed every handicap chaser who’s led in recent years, you’d be doing very well! It’s never as easy as that, but there’s a chance this simple approach works out quite well. I will add them next to horses in Section 2, and the Test Zone, inc eye-catchers. 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. 2 standouts at Kempton. 1pt win singles 0.5 pt double
    4-25. Foxy Forever 7-2
    8-00. Fiesole 4-1
    had a good look at Ayr but not much tickles my fancy,
    2-45. i want to take on Orioninverness and both Damiens Dilelemma and Nortonthorpelegend look to have good chances but i’m going to have a small ew on Imperial Prince @22-1 placed twice over c&d in soft earlier this year.
    3-20. Letmego 14-1 b365 could be the value in what looks a pretty dire field if recent wind op has had desired affect.

  2. Attention Please Ayr 14:45 1pt e/w-20/1-I thought this one deserved a go at the price on what looked like an average race. Yes he clearly has pulled up on his last 2 starts however 12 months ago he was also coming into this off a PU on re-appearance and was the only one to go with the runaway leader with the rest beaten easily. He is 1lb higher than his last win (2nd actually won the next 2) and handles good and soft ground so that will not be a problem. Trainer had a bad year last year but was back amongst the winners at the weekend. Should be up there either disputing the lead or just behind. The favorite looks a non-stayer and plenty look like they might need it. I thought he was worth a go at the price.

  3. The 2.45 appears to be a fairly wide open race with 2 flags both for Asking For Answers on my welcome screen this morning, currently 11/1 generally. With Josh on Ask Cory and Nick on Attention Please, it’s gonna be an interesting event.

    1. As it happens AFA is the only horse that qualifies as a ‘tip’ for me this afternoon. Will be looking at Kempton later in the afternoon so back about 4.00

      Ayr 2.45 Asking For Answers.. 10.0

    1. Fortunately for me mine got backed in below the threshold well before they went down to post. Ridiculous return of 6/1 for what turned out to be a damp squib on the day. Was 11/1 with the bookies when I first posted it. They must be mad!

  4. Ask Cory….. bad luck Josh, I don’t like having a go at jockeys, but I thought the race was lost from flag fall and on the first circuit. A typical Heskin ride too far back with the horse looking like he was losing interest. Clearly the horse was slow at the fences and needed to be prominent, was staying on last time out so absolutely no reason to hold it up. The trouble with Heskin is he rides everything the same way. It might sound harsh, and maybe my pocket is talking, but it is so frustrating for everyone involved when a young horse like that, that is bound to make the odd error at its fences , isn’t being given a chance to win.

    1. Hi James,
      Yep I tend to agree with you, my heart sank when he had him so far back, as we all know it’s so hard from back there, and even more pressure on your jumping when turning for home- i thought he’d be riding with confidence given his form, alas i’ve shot myself in the foot with praise, and maybe the fact Tom George dumped him (i think) is some sign
      He clearly just gallops/stays/lacks a turn of gear, but maybe Heskin thought he would be going a stride too fast if further forward/wanted to warm him to his task- maybe too over-confident as he thought he’d just win eventually – to lose by 1/4 L is bloody annoying, 18 2nd/3rds and counting, i’d like the odd one to start winning again. That happens – many winner’s i’ll back over time will benefit from a poor ride in behind etc, which is what i’ll cling to.
      He should have won, doesn’t bungle 2 out, then he probably does by 1/2 a length, a game of fine margins.
      I’d put some CP on him, 26f, and he will win – he’s clearly moderate enough but they should find a race for him.A frustrating run, but that’s racing for you. Sent to test us 🙂
      Josh

  5. Josh thanks for retweeting the article on Mark Johnsons achievment of taking the record of 236 winners in a calender year and of course Joe Fanning who hardly gets a mention even though he has ridden over 2500 winners, said a few weeks ago great fan of Joe over the years when riding HCs for Mark Johnson and Keith Dagleash, would have missed this achievment if you had not tweeted.
    Colin.

    1. No problem. I’d like to think there’s the odd thing of interest on the twitter roll to the right and conscious many won’t be on it etc, so pleased you have a look every now and then.

      Some achievement.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.