Members Daily Post: 27/10/19 (complete:09.42)

Aintree ‘through the card’, No tips, Section 2 (complete), test zone ‘New’ experiment…

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/108, 36p +35.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None on Sunday…

The 2.45 Wincanton looks decent, however maybe one to take notes for the future… there are 5 horses who’ve had 6 or fewer chase starts, and open to improvement this season and all with decent form… Captain C and Coup De Pinceau for Nicholls (jockey booking suggest latter, but he’s said most of his will come on for the run this season), White Moon for Tizzard and Conningsby for Lacey (no winning record fresh/educated guessing) – all are in the 4>7s range – given their profiles i’d be surprised if one doesn’t take it, but they may all need the run. Hard to know, so i’ll leave it. One of Us is a thorough stayer, who’s one to watch as he could have another slog in him at some point, again fitness/trip/track are questions. The likes of MinellaC and Beau Du B are solid, but open to attack from anything with more to come. So, i’ll leave that one.

Over to Aintree and not much to go on there. Bar the finale I won’t attack the Vets races, albeit I have looked to see if anything with a bombproof record fresh, like Vieux Lion Rouge at Chepstow. Killaro Boy is interesting but only 5s, he should be fit – proper testing ground is a question given recent form on a decent surface, albeit went well on it in his Irish youth.

Burton’s Well may be the one for my ‘track-side £5’ at 10s, albeit Venetia hasn’t got going yet, but given the owner it may be significant he returns here. Off 664 days though, but he’s 10 and lightly raced compared to these (but that’s because he’s had issues). On Tour is the solid one, but only 3s – which he may make look big if that last race hasn’t bottomed him- but he’s held up/creeps into it, which is always dangerous, but he’s fit and in form- the right fav. Still, plenty of questions in this, esp if testing.

There’s the Old Roan,  – doesn’t look a betting heat but i’ll be cheering on Kalashnikov for obvious reasons, and if he hacks up (which I hope he does/should handle ground better than fav and more to come, he will be a1, but his jumping needs to tidy up, not a betting price IMO) i’ll hope to gate-crash any post race celebrations. Well, I can try. 🙂

Maybe the track-side £5 should be on Forest Bihan, who is race-fit, and Ellison couldn’t be in better form. He’s an 18 raced chaser though and not a tipping race for me.

To the 3.35… well i’m rather bullish about The Hollow Ginge, but it’s a novices handicap chase and he’s only 7/2. But he will relish conditions and won well LTO – he had The Conditional back in third there, alas. I did think it looked a decent novice, sadly that’s as far as my thinking got with him on Sat. Still, i’ll take the positive for my ‘tracker tuesday eyes’, while pondering what to improve on. I haven’t felt that bad after a big Saturday handicap in a while, given how well stuffed my pokes were, and the fact an unexposed ‘eye-catcher’ won the bloody thing. Twister’s horse has a decent heavy ground slog in him at some point in next year or two. A proper grinder and a trier. Guaranteed to go on Haydock Heavy. If he ran well here, maybe he could make up into a Welsh National type, for example.  He’s the one to beat in this, if his jumping holds.

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Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/32,13p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Wincanton

1.00 –

Shiroccan Roll (HcH) I3 G3 12/1 S1 UP

Vancouver (micro distance) 25/1 S2A 3rd 40/1

 

Aintree……...None

 

Bonus Irish 

Wexford……….inspect 8am

2.35 Jaunty Velocity (all Hc’s) 12/1

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TPP Chase Micros 

2.45 Winc – White Moon  L 3/1 Fell (when looking like winner)

3.35 Aint – Shannon Bridge 8/1 3rd

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle (14/1<) 

1.00 Winc – Shiroccan Roll 12/1 UP

Twister

3.35 Aint – The Hollow Ginge (me, any) 3/1 2nd (hd)

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

1.35 Winc – Speedy Buck (any odds) L 12/1 UP

2.45 Winc – Coningsby 

3.35 Aint – Danboru (any odds) L 16/1 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

3.00 Aint – Kalashnikov (9/1< guide) 5/4 UP (2nd)

2.45 Winc – Minellacelebration (25/1<) 14/1 UP

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2019/20 Tracker Tuesday/Eye-Catchers

I haven’t been consistent in posting these, so apols for that. I think i’ll post them and ‘stop at a winner’ but do add to your trackers from those posts etc. There’s been a few winners in the last couple of weeks. I wouldn’t advise backing them blind, but they generally focus on unexposed handicap chasers who should show more at some point. 

3.35 Aint – The Hollow Ginge

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

NEW! (experiment)

L – you may notice an next to a few horses above – this is only an experiment but, with eyes on those stats qualifiers in chases – I thought it may be useful/interesting to highlight those horses who could lead – i’ve used the Geegeez Pace maps and have simply added the L next to those who have led at least once on last four starts – as simple as that. It IS NOT an indication they may get an easy lead, there could be other pace pressure in their races.

It saves you trawling through any pace maps and in reality even on busy days is a 10 minute job – you can ignore these for now, but a) it could help with shortlisting/your analysis b) I can hope that in time it may become a ‘systematic’ angle, but the jury is out. As any long suffering readers will know, if you’d backed every handicap chaser who’s led in recent years, you’d be doing very well! It’s never as easy as that, but there’s a chance this simple approach works out quite well. I will add them next to horses in Section 2, and the Test Zone, inc eye-catchers. 

 

 

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Aintree ‘through the card’ 

 

12.40 – Imperial Alcazar – 9/4

An ‘obvious’ one to start, it does look between the top 3 in the market (Henderson’s would be interesting if supported I think… I did note trainer/jockey are 6/20,7p here in non-handicap hurdles) but the fav here has the best bumper form by quite some way – whether that translates, we shall see, but this step up in trip/conditions look ideal. The yard are flying – their winners in the last 3 days or so are the first trained fully at their new home, and their long uphill gallop appears to be working wonders. If he jumps, he’s the one to beat. The yard are 0/41 here, but 10 places, many going close inc in non-hncp hurdles.

Lacey has one, always a danger, and open to improvement, as is Fry’s, who’s in form- albeit that one was keen in his races when last seen, but may have grown up since. Probably not at race to bet on, even if going racing, but one for the placepot maybe.

1.15 – Hogan’s Height – 6/1 (Mr Muldoon a danger)*

*as of 10.34 Hogan’s has since lost a leg in the market…hmmm… maybe nothing, or this is a prep for a return to fences. I can’t have Vaughan’s given proper soft is an unknown. Still, the horse doesn’t know his price…

Looks interesting for the red-hot Snowden team and Ben Hicks is a decent 10lb claimer, esp over hurdles (5//27,9p hncp hurdles) He will stay, the ground looks fine, and he’s gone well fresh before. I don’t think fitness will be a question.

I’ll have a close eye on Mr Muldoon, who could take this – i’m friends with the guy who picked him out of a farmer’s field in Ireland for X, had him trained by J O’Shea to win a few points, and then sold into Newland’s yard. He’s a fine eye for a horse, at a bargain price – (he’ll source our horses when the RTP Racing Club is born! – one day :)) . But he wouldn’t forgive me if I didn’t mention him. He’s solid, and may be worth some support at 3s. He runs as if he’ll relish the trip but the selection, if a1, could have a bit more class, potentially.

1.50 – Burtons Well – 8/1

What Nick said – we had a good chat about this one today, and I do hope I’m punished for my aversion to diving into Vets races – he is the most interesting in here by some way, and given the owner, it has to be significant he rocks up here. Clearly he’s had all sorts of problems – which actually makes you think he will be a1 every time he runs – this could be his last run, given how fragile he is – he’s gone well after 600+ days, it’s nearly Venetia time, and yep breeding suggests he will relish this trip. Charlie will have him up there and at 8s is worth a go. He could bolt up, he could flounder – that’s the risk given his profile, and Venetia hasn’t quite got going yet. Still, I couldn’t be with anything else at the prices. Nothing in here would get close to an in-form Waiting Patiently, but he has.

2.25 – Howling Milan – 5/1

I like the fav in this – he won on his return on the card last year – and is clearly the one to beat for his red hot yard. But I can’t wade in at 11/8 – maybe a case of leaving the race but i’ll play with my track-side change on Howling Milan, who may try and make all – he ‘could’ improve for the trip and i’d hope will strip fitter for LTO. Sam keeps the ride and he should be the one to pass turning in. He may not stay, but he’s unexposed still and if there are any chinks in the fav, he may take the spoils.

I’m sure Garrettstown has an ok pot in him, a previous Adam Norman notebook horse for the future-  maybe today is the day, but it’s his first run back and he does need to step forward. A competitive little race on paper.

3.00- Kalashnikov – 5/4

In truth a non-betting race I think and I can’t wade in at this price on his return – but given my connections with the yard I can’t really take him on! 🙂 You’d think it’s between the top two. This is a big year for the horse and I think he’d have been 2nd in the Arkle, and may have won it, but for effectively being brought down. His jumping does need to tidy up but he beat the Greatrex mare here when last seen, despite having clouted 3 of them. He can’t afford mistakes today but the ground won’t be as bad, and Amy will have him as fit as she can, albeit I suspect without having pushed him ultra hard at home. But this has been the plan – the current Spring targets are the Ryanair and then The Melling Chase back here.

3.35 – The Hollow Ginge – 7/2

This one and Jonjo’s look the most interesting in conditions. As does De Bromhead’s but there is a question over soft ground for him – if he copes with it, it could be some battle between these three.

I’ve gone with the one who’s fit and who’s won over fences, that latter point giving him the edge over Jonjo’s, on paper. That was a decent novice at Worcester, the 3rd winning Saturday’s big handicap (add Follow The Bear to your tracker’s who was second). He does need to sharpen up his jumping but if this is hard work, which it could be, he will be staying on. I think he has a decent heavy ground slog in him over fences one day, as he shapes like a dour stayer, who fights. He looks solid in what could be an informative race.

4.10 – Northern Princess 20/1 / Roseisarosiesarose 14s (both EW maybe)

A couple of pokes with ‘beer’ money to end the card – depending on how the above get on I may not even have that left! 🙂 But, it’s hard to be confident/to wade in with anything at the top of the market, and these two mares have shown enough to think they could get involved.  Clearly it may be about the top three in the market, given the yards, but i’m guessing as to which one. Worth having some change on some biggies I think.

 

My most ‘confident’ picks I suppose, in order of preference…

1. Imperial Alcazar 2. The Hollow Ginge 3. Burtons Well

(cue all the others winning!)

These ‘through the cards’ can go well, I can suffer blow-outs – and i’ve had a few of those at Aintree before! Fingers crossed i’ve landed on the odd winner. I won’t be going mad, probably with a track-side budget of £50 odd, spread around. It’s hard to be overly confident at this time of year.

I’ve been lucky enough to bag an Owners/Trainers badge for today, and this meeting is always as much about the socialising, and saying hello to the various Aintree regulars/friends of the blog – Paul Ferguson, Adam Norman, Steve Mullington and others. If you’re there, do say hello, and I may even buy you a pint 🙂

Best of luck with any fancies.

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. I’m forgetting today, for everyone’s picks, as I’d never thought the ground as going to close to the course having an inspection to check the meet could go ahead.
    But the FTO problem still goes on and I’m goinga have to wonder whether that, or the ground was the problem for Crosspark, who I thought was falling away, then came back a bit, then faded away

    Onto 2moz and I don’t blame no selections for the Win 2.45, seen a few races priced up like this in recent weeks with 4 horses all at 4/1, looks very tricky

    Just been looking at the Vets chase at Aintree
    Think On Tour won’t be at it here, form would be right at 3/1 but a short break from a race that he was pushed all the way to the line trying to win, surely others in this will be better
    Killaro Boy looks well for new trainer but is coming with a bit of a break, Theatre Guide should come on for the run but not been here a lot over career and not gone well wen has
    Think i would back Monbeg River at the prices,

    1. GL Ryan,
      In hindsight we probably got him wrong – of course he may have needed it – but maybe that soft/heavy form, which was in 2017, was a case of him getting away with it etc – undoubtedly his better recent form has been on better ground, albeit in part I thought it was as much to do with the maturing/step up in trip etc. Still, 20s did look big. It always feels worse when you know some way out you’re well stuffed! Never a good feeling in this game, esp when you put a lot of time into a race, but have to reflect, learn, swear and move on 🙂

    2. I think the only thing I got right yesterday was the fact they all finished strung out! 8 horses pulled up, 5 non runners, sort of gave you the warning before the tapes had gone up.
      Frustrating like Josh says when you have looked at a race with fresh eyes, only to have the race fall apart from what you had envisioned after studying the horses.
      I won`t take the winner as I feel unless it is a bog again at Cheltenham, he won`t win, things fell into place for him on the day and I think that 1/7 wins will become 1/8 next time out.
      looking at it again though, it does seem as though the younger, fresher legs came to the fore in such a gruelling race, 4 out of the seven finishers were all aged 8 and younger, one glimmer of hope on a soggy Saturday.(Think i would take Cogry out of the race as I believe he is a Cheltenham course specialist on better than heavy ground, which i believe some of the course was yesterday)

  2. Thanks Josh for the Cheltenham guide, I had a decent bet on Quel Destin , very close with sunset too but really good day for me , thanks again.

    1. Good stuff James, always pleased to hear you good folk finding winners with the research, which is always a big thrust of what I do, as you well know. My month hasn’t been great, close to clicking a few times, but that’s the game, and Oct always a tad tricky – albeit some frustrations.
      Yep Sunset ran well, I think he tries, but he just bumped into one tough bugger.
      The Conditional yet another reminder as to the potency of the ‘unexposed/lightly raced’ chase brigade – still on the fence as to whether 14s gen morning was ok or not – but ticked a few boxes, inc fitness, in form, and I didn’t put enough weight on strength of some of his Irish chase runs, nor fact that in his maiden hurdles (heavy) he ran like a future chase slogger. Missing him only made worse by how abject mine were haha. This game tests you at times! 🙂

  3. Galway 4-00. Dashing Oscar 25-1, hasn’t run a decent race in nearly 2 years and there’s no reason to believe that first time cheekpieces will work the oracle but that saying he is 12lb below last winning mark has a 5lb claimer on board and drops in grade (12k), Well beaten when sixth of 17 on his latest outing in a hurdle race at Gowran Park(30k) over 3m (yielding) earlier this month drop back in distance and softer ground will help. nothing in the race stands out in the conditions so will have a punt at the price.

  4. nothing on the mainland stands out today but i have had a couple of win bets and a win double on Stoney Mountain A2-25 @ 2-1 and Django Django A3-35 @4-1, of the rest just a longshot 5p ew L31.
    Wincanton.
    1-00. She’s Gina 14-1
    4-30. Shufoog 20-1
    Aintree.
    1-15. Same Circus 25-1
    4-10. Hello Bob 33-1
    Galway
    4-00. Dashing Oscar 25-1

  5. Solid day yesterday. Still cannot believe the price Saint was on Friday.

    Burtons Well Aintree 13:50 1.5pt win 8/1-I thought the price looked big on this one given he is by far the most unexposed. His record fresh is pretty spotless and he chased Waiting Patiently home off a similar break. I always thought he would end up a 150s animal so even if he retains 85% of his past ability he should go close. By breeding he shouldn’t have any issues and it could bring about further improvement. Hopefully Charlie can get him to bowl along out front. In the context of the opposition I thought 8/1 was too big.

    1. Good to see you back in the comments and back among the winners. Yesterday’s close finish certainly got the heart pumping. Just out of interest, what price was available on Friday?

      1. He was 6s across the board mid afternoon on Friday when everyone had priced up the race and I just missed the 5s when I posted just before 7.

    2. SC was 12/1 midweek and I helped myself to some of that EW. Went in again at 4’s when you put it up. It was tipped up by someone on twitter Friday afternoon hence price going.
      Great reading your comments again
      Thanks for doing them

    3. Well done Nick and Josh, that is the second time that one of the “newbies” to Veteran races has won, maybe something else to look at that Josh? VLR didn`t have many miles on the clock, Burtons Well only having a few miles on the clock, apart from Pete the Feat, some of these newbies might be worth a second look…

      1. Yep I think you’re right there Stewart. In a way its an extension of the horses I try to focus on normally… More lightly raced. Just want more lightly raced veterans! And those who’ve been competing in non vets chases. I’m not sure if I can research first run in Vets but may be possible, and certainly will from a profile/ no. Runs etc.
        Vieux had a bombproof record fresh and had been in quality races, owners sponsored race, Pipes record in race.
        Burtons… Lightly raced, solid form when he had run, compared to these, even accounting for decline. Had run well after monster break and its Venetia and nearly November! And the owner factor. It was likely he’d be spot on here.
        Certainly made me ponder by blanket ban on them. That should have been +8 to my official pile.
        Still, generally and collectively more often than not close enough to these winners and they’ll start flying in at some point.

  6. Aintree
    1:50 buttons well
    2:45 garrettstown
    3:35 the hollow ginge

    Galway
    4:35 presenting ana

    Wincanton
    3:55 bells of Barack

    1. Yep well done to Nick. Read that spot on. I may have to revise my aversion to Vets races but alas, that horse has bolted. He did look good at 8s with fresh, less disconsolate morning eyes! Still, a solid through the card effort so far. Josh

  7. Haha. I don’t do many multiples but having highlighted my top 3 above, I did on that at 110/1 or so. Painful. But you have to smile. Burtons has ensured a good day.

    1. Haha i was going to ask if you covered any multiples, and nearly did it myself on your 3 you last mentioned, Jesus so so unlucky with the last, thought it was in the bag at one point
      Must have had a top day today

  8. Josh
    I noticed and backed one of your previous Eyecatchers TEMPLEPARK and one of your previous MAIN picks PUNCHES CROSS both won so losses recovered and profit to boot. Many Thanks.
    Correct me if my comments are inaccurate.

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike.
      Hmm can’t see Templepark in my tracker which may be admin error as he rings a bell. I’ll start backing these sodding things at some point! My word.
      Punches is in there with a note as a losing tip. I don’t post those, but did look at him and can live with that. On heavy I wouldn’t have tipped him and not stepped up in trip. I thought he floundered on it at Galway/that was the excuse.
      It was seem the excuse may have been JP backing the winner that day!! Ahem.
      From memory just backing losing tips on next start may be profitable but tricky.
      Glad you had a good day.
      Burtons well ensured a great day. Backed at home. Backed a fair whack more track side when I saw him as he was fit.
      Did back bumper winner, Paul Ferguson pointed me to him track side, second EW for small bet as above.
      Would have been quite the day had Hollows won but can’t be too greedy! Onwards

  9. Hi Josh
    Sounds like you had a decent fun day at A.
    Here is your write up on Templepark.
    Templepark (6 YO Bay Male / Fergal O’Brien)

    This unexposed chaser (1/6,4p) was having his first start for Fergal O’Brien and his first run in 59 days. He over-raced through this, to my eyes anyway, albeit he’s seemingly always been a keen sort. Whether they can find a way to make him race more efficiently, time will tell. I think that may be key to him staying 3 miles, as his form to date has been over shorter. It could be that a drop in trip and an easy time on the front end will see him return to the winners’ enclosure. I thought he jumped ok on the whole, albeit with room for improvement. His form is on a decent surface (untried on softer) so it may be they need to strike soon, or it will be a case of waiting until the spring. Maybe he wants soft! In any case, this mark looks workable and if Fergal can improve him, he should be winning again at some point.

    Mike

    1. Hmm, that’s a decent analysis haha. Looks like he read it before winning today. Short enough mind but still, I’ll take the positives and try and up my game on the tracking/posting front. Those tracker Tuesday eyes have generally been working well. Just need to focus and start tipping a few! Primal Focus and Conditional both won at 20s in last 10 days, within 3 runs of going in tracker etc.

  10. Great day today Josh.
    Instantly paid for my outrageously cheap subs for the next three months.
    Good to see Nick back with selections and the analysis, and pleased he has a clean bill of health.

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