2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.General messages/updates/new reports etc
Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/108, 36p +35.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)
Daily Chase Tips: Main
(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)
None on Sunday…
The 2.45 Wincanton looks decent, however maybe one to take notes for the future… there are 5 horses who’ve had 6 or fewer chase starts, and open to improvement this season and all with decent form… Captain C and Coup De Pinceau for Nicholls (jockey booking suggest latter, but he’s said most of his will come on for the run this season), White Moon for Tizzard and Conningsby for Lacey (no winning record fresh/educated guessing) – all are in the 4>7s range – given their profiles i’d be surprised if one doesn’t take it, but they may all need the run. Hard to know, so i’ll leave it. One of Us is a thorough stayer, who’s one to watch as he could have another slog in him at some point, again fitness/trip/track are questions. The likes of MinellaC and Beau Du B are solid, but open to attack from anything with more to come. So, i’ll leave that one.
Over to Aintree and not much to go on there. Bar the finale I won’t attack the Vets races, albeit I have looked to see if anything with a bombproof record fresh, like Vieux Lion Rouge at Chepstow. Killaro Boy is interesting but only 5s, he should be fit – proper testing ground is a question given recent form on a decent surface, albeit went well on it in his Irish youth.
Burton’s Well may be the one for my ‘track-side £5’ at 10s, albeit Venetia hasn’t got going yet, but given the owner it may be significant he returns here. Off 664 days though, but he’s 10 and lightly raced compared to these (but that’s because he’s had issues). On Tour is the solid one, but only 3s – which he may make look big if that last race hasn’t bottomed him- but he’s held up/creeps into it, which is always dangerous, but he’s fit and in form- the right fav. Still, plenty of questions in this, esp if testing.
There’s the Old Roan, – doesn’t look a betting heat but i’ll be cheering on Kalashnikov for obvious reasons, and if he hacks up (which I hope he does/should handle ground better than fav and more to come, he will be a1, but his jumping needs to tidy up, not a betting price IMO) i’ll hope to gate-crash any post race celebrations. Well, I can try. 🙂
Maybe the track-side £5 should be on Forest Bihan, who is race-fit, and Ellison couldn’t be in better form. He’s an 18 raced chaser though and not a tipping race for me.
To the 3.35… well i’m rather bullish about The Hollow Ginge, but it’s a novices handicap chase and he’s only 7/2. But he will relish conditions and won well LTO – he had The Conditional back in third there, alas. I did think it looked a decent novice, sadly that’s as far as my thinking got with him on Sat. Still, i’ll take the positive for my ‘tracker tuesday eyes’, while pondering what to improve on. I haven’t felt that bad after a big Saturday handicap in a while, given how well stuffed my pokes were, and the fact an unexposed ‘eye-catcher’ won the bloody thing. Twister’s horse has a decent heavy ground slog in him at some point in next year or two. A proper grinder and a trier. Guaranteed to go on Haydock Heavy. If he ran well here, maybe he could make up into a Welsh National type, for example. He’s the one to beat in this, if his jumping holds.
Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/32,13p, +9.3)
(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)
2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
Shiroccan Roll (HcH) I3 G3 12/1 S1 UP
Vancouver (micro distance) 25/1 S2A 3rd 40/1
2.35 – Jaunty Velocity (all Hc’s) 12/1
TPP Chase Micros
2.45 Winc – White Moon L 3/1 Fell (when looking like winner)
3.35 Aint – Shannon Bridge 8/1 3rd
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3.Micro System Test Zone
E Lavelle (14/1<)
1.00 Winc – Shiroccan Roll 12/1 UP
3.35 Aint – The Hollow Ginge (me, any) 3/1 2nd (hd)
Chase Angles 2019/20
1.35 Winc – Speedy Buck (any odds) L 12/1 UP
2.45 Winc – Coningsby
3.35 Aint – Danboru (any odds) L 16/1 UP
Jockey Angles 2019/20
3.00 Aint – Kalashnikov (9/1< guide) 5/4 UP (2nd)
2.45 Winc – Minellacelebration (25/1<) 14/1 UP
2019/20 Tracker Tuesday/Eye-Catchers
I haven’t been consistent in posting these, so apols for that. I think i’ll post them and ‘stop at a winner’ but do add to your trackers from those posts etc. There’s been a few winners in the last couple of weeks. I wouldn’t advise backing them blind, but they generally focus on unexposed handicap chasers who should show more at some point.
3.35 Aint – The Hollow Ginge
4.General messages/updates/new reports etc
L – you may notice an L next to a few horses above – this is only an experiment but, with eyes on those stats qualifiers in chases – I thought it may be useful/interesting to highlight those horses who could lead – i’ve used the Geegeez Pace maps and have simply added the L next to those who have led at least once on last four starts – as simple as that. It IS NOT an indication they may get an easy lead, there could be other pace pressure in their races.
It saves you trawling through any pace maps and in reality even on busy days is a 10 minute job – you can ignore these for now, but a) it could help with shortlisting/your analysis b) I can hope that in time it may become a ‘systematic’ angle, but the jury is out. As any long suffering readers will know, if you’d backed every handicap chaser who’s led in recent years, you’d be doing very well! It’s never as easy as that, but there’s a chance this simple approach works out quite well. I will add them next to horses in Section 2, and the Test Zone, inc eye-catchers.
Aintree ‘through the card’
12.40 – Imperial Alcazar – 9/4
An ‘obvious’ one to start, it does look between the top 3 in the market (Henderson’s would be interesting if supported I think… I did note trainer/jockey are 6/20,7p here in non-handicap hurdles) but the fav here has the best bumper form by quite some way – whether that translates, we shall see, but this step up in trip/conditions look ideal. The yard are flying – their winners in the last 3 days or so are the first trained fully at their new home, and their long uphill gallop appears to be working wonders. If he jumps, he’s the one to beat. The yard are 0/41 here, but 10 places, many going close inc in non-hncp hurdles.
Lacey has one, always a danger, and open to improvement, as is Fry’s, who’s in form- albeit that one was keen in his races when last seen, but may have grown up since. Probably not at race to bet on, even if going racing, but one for the placepot maybe.
1.15 – Hogan’s Height – 6/1 (Mr Muldoon a danger)*
*as of 10.34 Hogan’s has since lost a leg in the market…hmmm… maybe nothing, or this is a prep for a return to fences. I can’t have Vaughan’s given proper soft is an unknown. Still, the horse doesn’t know his price…
Looks interesting for the red-hot Snowden team and Ben Hicks is a decent 10lb claimer, esp over hurdles (5//27,9p hncp hurdles) He will stay, the ground looks fine, and he’s gone well fresh before. I don’t think fitness will be a question.
I’ll have a close eye on Mr Muldoon, who could take this – i’m friends with the guy who picked him out of a farmer’s field in Ireland for X, had him trained by J O’Shea to win a few points, and then sold into Newland’s yard. He’s a fine eye for a horse, at a bargain price – (he’ll source our horses when the RTP Racing Club is born! – one day :)) . But he wouldn’t forgive me if I didn’t mention him. He’s solid, and may be worth some support at 3s. He runs as if he’ll relish the trip but the selection, if a1, could have a bit more class, potentially.
1.50 – Burtons Well – 8/1
What Nick said – we had a good chat about this one today, and I do hope I’m punished for my aversion to diving into Vets races – he is the most interesting in here by some way, and given the owner, it has to be significant he rocks up here. Clearly he’s had all sorts of problems – which actually makes you think he will be a1 every time he runs – this could be his last run, given how fragile he is – he’s gone well after 600+ days, it’s nearly Venetia time, and yep breeding suggests he will relish this trip. Charlie will have him up there and at 8s is worth a go. He could bolt up, he could flounder – that’s the risk given his profile, and Venetia hasn’t quite got going yet. Still, I couldn’t be with anything else at the prices. Nothing in here would get close to an in-form Waiting Patiently, but he has.
2.25 – Howling Milan – 5/1
I like the fav in this – he won on his return on the card last year – and is clearly the one to beat for his red hot yard. But I can’t wade in at 11/8 – maybe a case of leaving the race but i’ll play with my track-side change on Howling Milan, who may try and make all – he ‘could’ improve for the trip and i’d hope will strip fitter for LTO. Sam keeps the ride and he should be the one to pass turning in. He may not stay, but he’s unexposed still and if there are any chinks in the fav, he may take the spoils.
I’m sure Garrettstown has an ok pot in him, a previous Adam Norman notebook horse for the future- maybe today is the day, but it’s his first run back and he does need to step forward. A competitive little race on paper.
3.00- Kalashnikov – 5/4
In truth a non-betting race I think and I can’t wade in at this price on his return – but given my connections with the yard I can’t really take him on! 🙂 You’d think it’s between the top two. This is a big year for the horse and I think he’d have been 2nd in the Arkle, and may have won it, but for effectively being brought down. His jumping does need to tidy up but he beat the Greatrex mare here when last seen, despite having clouted 3 of them. He can’t afford mistakes today but the ground won’t be as bad, and Amy will have him as fit as she can, albeit I suspect without having pushed him ultra hard at home. But this has been the plan – the current Spring targets are the Ryanair and then The Melling Chase back here.
3.35 – The Hollow Ginge – 7/2
This one and Jonjo’s look the most interesting in conditions. As does De Bromhead’s but there is a question over soft ground for him – if he copes with it, it could be some battle between these three.
I’ve gone with the one who’s fit and who’s won over fences, that latter point giving him the edge over Jonjo’s, on paper. That was a decent novice at Worcester, the 3rd winning Saturday’s big handicap (add Follow The Bear to your tracker’s who was second). He does need to sharpen up his jumping but if this is hard work, which it could be, he will be staying on. I think he has a decent heavy ground slog in him over fences one day, as he shapes like a dour stayer, who fights. He looks solid in what could be an informative race.
4.10 – Northern Princess 20/1 / Roseisarosiesarose 14s (both EW maybe)
A couple of pokes with ‘beer’ money to end the card – depending on how the above get on I may not even have that left! 🙂 But, it’s hard to be confident/to wade in with anything at the top of the market, and these two mares have shown enough to think they could get involved. Clearly it may be about the top three in the market, given the yards, but i’m guessing as to which one. Worth having some change on some biggies I think.
My most ‘confident’ picks I suppose, in order of preference…
1. Imperial Alcazar 2. The Hollow Ginge 3. Burtons Well
(cue all the others winning!)
These ‘through the cards’ can go well, I can suffer blow-outs – and i’ve had a few of those at Aintree before! Fingers crossed i’ve landed on the odd winner. I won’t be going mad, probably with a track-side budget of £50 odd, spread around. It’s hard to be overly confident at this time of year.
I’ve been lucky enough to bag an Owners/Trainers badge for today, and this meeting is always as much about the socialising, and saying hello to the various Aintree regulars/friends of the blog – Paul Ferguson, Adam Norman, Steve Mullington and others. If you’re there, do say hello, and I may even buy you a pint 🙂
Best of luck with any fancies.