Members Daily Post: 26/10/19 (complete)

Main tip x3, Section 2 (complete), test zone, Chelt Day 2

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/108, 36p +35.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.00 Cheltenham

#1 BOB MAHLER – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/SkyB/BoylS) 22/1 (others) UP

#2 CROSSPARK – 1 point win – 20/1 (Lad/BV/Coral/Betf/Boyle) UP

#3 ROLLING DYLAN – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/WH) 22/1 (gen) UP

that’s all for this race, as of 08.26, write ups etc to follow bottom of post.

Less said about that the better, poor effort, three of the first beaten really, never confident of a run at any stage on final circuit. Bob never jumped, Cross there for the run, Rolling D not great. The winner was unexposed, and an ‘eye-catcher’ LTO from tracker tuesday posts, which I clearly need to put some more time into – he was 0/7,0p fences, and I didn’t rate his jumping LTO, all better runs RH- He did have a 12th fourth in munster national, a fine run in a beginners chase, maiden hurdle performances in soft/heavy – trainer was 0/21,1p here, and i thought this would be too much. 14s this morning, he was price-wised. Got that race all wrong. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/32,13p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None, nothing of interest 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Doncaster

Abandoned 

 

Newbury….…..None

Abandoned 

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JUMPS

Kelso

3.00 –

Amalfi Doug (all Hc’s) w1 w2 9/1 UP

One For Arthur (m dist and -class) H3 8/1 

3.35 –

Gennady (all Hc’s) 11/2 

Blooriedotcom (m TJC) 20/1 S2A UP

4.10 –

Vengeur De Guye (m -class) w2 H3 5/1 WON 

Effet Special (m -class) G3 10/1 S1 UP

4.40 – Pinspot (m TJC) 7/1 

5.15 – Murphy’s Law (all Hc’s) w2 11/4 

 

Cheltenham…………None

 

Galway

5.00 – Emily Square (all Hc’s) 12/1 

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TTP Chase Micros

2.00 Chelt – Cogry (any odds) 7/1 3rd

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister 

2.35 Chelt- Torpillo (m2, 16/1< guide) 7/4

5.30 Chelt – Bit On The Side  33/1/ The Newest One 6/1 (m2, 16/1< guide)

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Chase Angles 2019/20

2.00 Chelt – Rock The Kasbah (14/1<) 9/1

2.25 Kelso – Voila Eric 9/1 UP

3.10 Chelt- Northern Beau (any odds) 50/1 UP/ Gino Train (10/1<) 11/1 DNQ

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Cheltenham Showcase Day 2

1st Run of Season Trainers (16/1<)

2.00 -Cobra De Mai / Rolling Dylan

3.10 – Brelan Das

4.20 – Ramses De Teillee

4.55 – First Assingment / Pym / Secret Investor / Slate House

 

Hncp Chase Starting Points (16/1<)

2.00 –

Back to The Thatch / Bob Mahler/ Captain Chaos / Cobra De Mai / Minella Rocco / Onefortheroadtom/ Red Infantry / Rock The Kas/ Rockys Treasure/ Rolling Dylan/ Royal Vacation / Shantou Village / West Approach

3.10 – Brelan Das / Knocknanuss/ Marracudja/ Master Work / Saint Calvados

 

NTD Micro (10/1<)

2.00- Cogry

2.35 – Torpillo

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Stats/Trends

2pm Cheltenham 

My 12/12 stats leave…

Cobra De Mai / Na Trachtalai Abu/ Captain Chaos/ Cross Park / Bob Mahler/ Back To The Thatch / Rolling Dylan / The Conditional WON 20s>14s

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Cogry
  • The Young Master/ Shantou Village
  • Rock The Kasbah/ Rolling Dylan
  • Minella Rocco

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TIPS Write Ups

Bob – at 25s/22s i’ll take fitness on trust and if he needs it so be it – but, he’s got a massive year ahead of him as I think he’s a staying chaser to follow, and could have a big handicap pot in him. As soon as he won for us at Cheltenham two starts ago, in facile fashion, his trainer talked about him as a ‘Hennessy’ horse, and that is the target – IF he’s good enough. He comes in here off 139, which wouldn’t guarantee him to get in I don’t think, and in any case, if he’s a Hennessy horse, he needs to go close in this. He won’t mind any softening ground, if on song he travels well enough on or near the pace, jumps well, and he stays. He may prefer the New Course but at the price, i’ll take a chance. Greatrex is in good form and had a novice chase winner on Friday off an absence (one who was tipped at 50s in the Potato race in 2018, and on his last start in the NH chase 2019 – alas, nothing on this time at 12s- darn, one day i’ll be good at this game :)). The way he spoke about Bob in his recent stable tour on Sporting Life (HERE>>> for reference) makes me think he will have him ready. Like I said he may need it, but at the price i’ll pay to find out. It seemed to click at the back end of last season and there could be more to come, on only his 7th handicap chase start. I’ll put a line through his Uttoxeter run, he made an early error and never seemed happy – the track may have been sharp enough I suspect, but he can be moody. But, I just can’t leave him at this price given his profile. He will win a handicap or two this season and I just hope i’m on when he does.

Crosspark…

This race could be quite the slog and it may be no bad thing having a ‘pacey’ Eider winner/ Scottish GN 2nd onside – his last three chase runs are some of the best, if not the best, recent handicap chase form on show here. He won’t mind the ground at all, he generally travels well, and jumps well- they can race him cold, but that isn’t like Sean and over this trip, I wonder if he’ll have him in midfield/further forward – they won’t go mad here now the ground is going soft+, so should be able to hold a position. His last run was a career best and at 20s I couldn’t say this mark is beyond him – it’s an unknown, and there could be more to come this season as he could be a late developer, given he was a revelation last season and kept improving. Now, it is his first run here, but clearly big fields/jumping are not a problem. The main question is whether he’s fit and here to fun his race- maybe they have a staying chase pencilled in, but he did win over 26f at Uttoxeter on seasonal return last year – in fact he’s yet to run a bad race on return really. If he’s fit, he’s no 20s shot in these conditions – there won’t be many stronger stayers up this hill, bar Bob above! 🙂

Rolling Dylan…

I was agonising over him for an age but decided i’d rather lose the point at 25s than have the pain of watching him win what could be his ‘Gold Cup’ – he’s a character who does find it hard to win, but he never stops – he’s a bit like Singlefarmpayment – if he has to fight, he’s a bit timid – If he’s to win this he may just stroll home all alone, or it will be in an agonising head bob! But he’s got experience of the track- in December he was beaten 1/2L by Cogry/Singlefarmpaymen on the New Course – that was a solid run. When he’s come second, the front two have often been well clear, which is never a bad sign. The ground will be fine for him, which you can’t say about some in here, as the NRs roll in. The smaller the field the better maybe for  him. Again, he has a fitness question – but he hits a few of the stats pointers above, inc the race trends profile, and Hobbs has won this race x5 , three were with ‘The King’, but all on seasonal return and just maybe this has been a plan – also, the yard appear to be over whatever was bugging them last season – he’s had 13 chase start, and maybe aged 8, this is his year. Nolan is his regular pilot so no bother there, i’m not sure if Johnson will now ride though. In any case, at 25s, I couldn’t help myself – esp given that Cogry form. He has the ability to win this, and given how he races, it’s hard to know if the handicapper has him or not. But, today could be about who handles conditions best/is fittest, rather that who’s ‘best in’.

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PACE… West Approach likes to get on with it, Cogry can be up there and I don’t think Jacob will have Bob that far off the pace – he will be in a no excuses position. The other two will be a bit further back, and I hope not too far, but i’m not talking about 8s shots here.

Of the rest…

Obviously eyes are always drawn to recent tips – if Captain Chaos wins then so be it, but I won’t get involved again until he shows more/the blinkers return – I suspect they have something planned for 3rd/4th start of season. Well, I hope so!

I can live with anything else winning, I just can’t have them at all at the prices.

West Approach was beat in this last year – yes he could make all, but i’m not sure he’s a soft ground slogger around here – obviously everyone can see the Paisley Park form, but this is short, and it’s over fences. He was terrible at Sandown, when think I fancied him, gulp. In any case, he could be me at 7s or so, and now he’s 4s. Madness. But, i can see the case, but not for me.

I can leave Cogry at his price – he’s 10 now and this is his 31st chase start – I can cheer him home at 6s if mine are stuffed, a grand servant. He handles soft but it’s no coincidence he’s generally been campaigned on decent ground in recent years. He was just beaten in this last year and I thought he was open to attack, another year older. Twister has admitted it’s harder to get him fit as he gets older. I’d prefer him over West Approach though and can see why some would fancy him. And plenty in here may not handle conditions, and many, inc my three, may need the run! He will be as fit as they can get him.

I can’t get the support for some of the others… The Conditional is 0/7,0p over fences, he has some ok form, esp in Ireland, but his jumping was scratchy at Worcester LTO- he will be tested around here, and he can beat me. But, young, more unexposed than most.

Onefortheroadtom- the ground is a massive question, he’s usually held up out the back and can hit a fence. And a question as to whether he’s good enough. He’s interesting to a point but not for me. Nor is Back To The Thatch who’s never won fresh and has questions. The yard are in flying form though, albeit don’t do that well here. Mindsmadeup – i wasn’t sure he was a soft ground slogger and his jumping can be iffy also. He is fit and in-form though, and that could count for plenty today, but I can live with him beating me.

Rocks Treasure- i’m not sure about him and I don’t think he wants a soft ground slog either. He’s got a question in big fields over fences as well as a few others. He needs more albeit some of his form reads well. I’m to be convinced this sort of test is up his street. I can leave Royal Vacation who didn’t run that well on return and again, a soft ground slog poses questions for him. If he did handle the ground he could go ok though, if he’s in form.

I think Get On The Yager will need it – I wouldn’t be so sure if Harry or Bridget were booked but he’s a few questions also, as well as fitness, and could take a few runs to get fit.

Red Infantry is of some interest if fit – if Crosspark/Bob are fit and run their race, they’d beat him – but he does stay well and handles the ground. He’s no record fresh as yet over fences, albeit no tries after this sort of break- however he can clout a fence and be ponderous, and I don’t think there’s too much strength to some of his form. But there are worse 28 shots – if he won i’d be staring out the window for a time, but a few too many questions for me. I’m not sure he’ll be good enough, even if a1.

I can leave the other Irish horse on this ground and if Minella Rocco takes this, so be it. I’m not sure connections know what horse will turn up. I can live with him winning and will doff my cap to Stewart if he does.

that’s a wrap.

Best of luck if following.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. Saint Calvados Cheltenham 15:10 2pt win-9/2-I am not planning too tip much in the evening given no BOG but I expect this one to go off much shorter and its an ITV race. He has yet to to lose outside of Grade 1 company and has won all his Graded races and I think he will simply outclass these tomorrow particularly if the ground is testing. He has won on both his seasonal re-appearances. He has had a wind op which should eek out a little more out also.

    Anything else in the morning.

    1. Nick good to see you back and hope that you start finding the winners again.

      Ref BOG when started my tipping line was adviced to stop advertizing BOG for genuine punters who put decent money on are unable to have access to BOG and they are very suspicious that the figures are enhanced by this.
      Just passing on the advice which i have been given and have now dropped BOG from any of my bets only adviced prices are used.
      Good Luck
      Colin.

  2. Some possible bets for me based loosely on Josh’s latest Cheltenham ‘starting points’ about first run of the season/ no course runs (not necessarily including first run of the season/ no course runs!) –
    3:10 Master Work 8/1
    4:55 Dead Right 8/1
    5:30 A Book of Intrigue 14/1

  3. Somebody had better get the bookies a loan for the payout, after me and Josh have finished with them….

    14:00 Cheltenham
    BOB MAHLER 1pt win 25/1 gen
    MINNELA ROCCO 1pt win 25/1

    Write ups in morning!

    1. BOB MAHLER
      He has won on soft ground before and that “toe in” will definitely be needed today as he bids for this nice early season pot. I believe we may be in for an upset today and probably early doors too, looking through those at the top of the market they all need good ground, so discounted most of them and then my eyes were drawn to the bigger prices. BM is a fighter, he has won round here and knows how to battle, you could possibly say he only likes small fields, but, this lot will get strung out today with the forecast weather and stamina sapping ground that can can happen at Cheltenham, so, wouldn`t worry about that. He races up with the front ones anyway and there are a few hold up horses. 25/1, 22/1 is way too big, the value meter went into overdive with that…
      MINELLA ROCCO
      Now, may have lost my marbles, yes, this is a Jonjo horse, yes, i did say i couldn`t read the yard, yes, the horse looks like he`s out of form….you get the gist. I remember Jonjo and Barry Geraghty win with a horse a couple of years ago called Eastlake, had middle of the road form (Apart form winning the Topham on soft ground). Then turned up at Cheltenham on a soggy Saturday in December won a decent prize on soft Cheltenham ground and confused everyone, apart form me, as to why he had won at 33/1. The going was significant as was the trainer and the jockey..MR i believe is another one that knows his way round here in that type of going, he is top class, hence the weight, but, 25/1 odds?, yes he is out of form, but, significantly the yard isn`t. Think BG will switch this one off and quietly coast into the race and if he reproduces some of his old Cheltenham form he could take this field apart. I`m willing to take a chance at 25`s with the ground likely to be gruelling…

      1. No excuses there, MR just seems to have fallen out of love with the game and BM was struggling a long way out

    2. That ground is unraceable atm I feel, wouldn’t take any of that form as genuine!? Looked like Aintree the other year when they should really have cancelled…

      1. It’s just winter heavy ground. We had a dry winter last year but they’ve raced on worse in the past and they likes of Haydock, Ffos Llas and Chepstow often like that.

        1. I suppose so, just frustrating when you see them running no pace at all early on and then finishing with a flourish, understand why they have to do that for safety concerns, but, as for reading the form, would only be used if ground turned heavy again. Mind you cream has risen to the top as the last two have been top weights and you were right on St Calvados..

      2. Hmm, it’s safe. They are going sensible pace.
        I didn’t necessarily think it would be that bad but knew testing enough, so no excuse for my crappy picking albeit many a 25s shot will run like that.
        Winner is annoying given eye catcher etc and his profile but thought 14s seemed short enough given questions but got that wrong. Was 20s evening before but then price wised. Decent Irish form, fit and open to improvement. Some pondering. I need to pull my finger out with these eye catchers as not using them to best of ability given work that goes into them. Posting the things would be a start.

        My notes in HRB next to him, from tracker Tuesday post…

        ran in what could be a decent novice chase at Worcester on 27th Sept – first run in 201 days, and first for yard. Could come on for the run. He was highly tried over fences in Ireland, could be he needs soft/heavy to be at his best

        It’s been one of those months!

  4. Through the card at Cheltenham:

    2.00 Tough start! I think Crosspark will go n the ground and may still be improving. Liley to be held up and try to come through beaten horses. So each way at 20/1 now. Kudos to the guys tipping Minella Rocco with PPP on his record.

    2.35. I like Torpillo to be better then these. He has won on soft and heavy and so should go in the ground.

    3.10. Another one who goes in the ground and will be likely held up and try to come through. Doitforthevillage, each way at 9/1 now. i can see the love for saint calvados and he is being backed, but 3/1 now and 11-12 to carry puts me off.

    3.45. These Pertemps qualifiers are tricky as trainers want runners to qualify but also want to protect their handicap mark. A tentative pick is Venetia’s (I met her once, very nice but too posh for me!) Burrows Park. 12/1 each way stab but go to the bar for this one.

    4.20. Stay in the bar and give this one a miss. If I have to pick one then Some Chaos to lead all the way.

    4.55. Henry Daly is going OK at present and I would have an each way interest on Whatmore at 9/1 now. He has had a run and won a three runner event easily.

    5.30. Give this one a miss and get out the car park early. I will have a Betfair SP stab on the Twister second string Bit On The Side, 33/1 now. Apparently Paul Nicholls rates Barbados Bucks for the future but maybe not today.

    Good luck.

  5. i’ve swerved Cheltenham to concentrate on Kelso but firstly there’s one at Galway
    4-25. Westerner Point 7-1 1pt ew, the 2 at the top of the market have no form on soft-soft/heavy but Westerner Point won’t mind if it gets softer the 7-1 looks more than fair to me.
    Kelso.
    3-00. Vintage Clouds 5-1 1pt win
    3-35. Think Ahead 14-1 0.5 pt ew
    4-40. Handy Hollow 14-1 0.5 pt ew, silly £1 ew Calvigny 40-1

  6. Cogry Cheltenham 14:00 1pt e/w 7/1-There are so many ifs buts or maybes about so many of the rest I had to stick with the one which ticks all the boxes. He loves the trip. He loves the track. He won’t mind the going. He stays further. His trainer is in cracking form. He is on his last winning mark. He has won this race 2 years ago and was 2nd in it last year. All his best runs are with Sam on. He will lead them all gallantly from the front. Obviously there is a chance something may improve past him but I’d be surprised if more than 2 did. (so que a NR leaving 15 and a 4th)

    Nothing else from me. Vintage Clouds would be a bet but the yard are so cold I want bigger than 9/2.

  7. Another tick for Crosspark here in the 2pm at Chelts
    Wanted another look this morning because didn’t feel I was getting my head around the card that easy last night, but a lot of NRs now and obviously guan be a test so was happy to see this morning Josh has picked it aswel
    Didn’t have Bob Mahler myself but have backed it
    And agree with Nick above, Cogry has to be fresh I think and you know he’s tuna be up at the right end, just think something will beat him to the line and hopefully it’s Crosspark, who didn’t run a bad race last season, was a bit of a concern that he’s been going a further last season but as Josh has eluded to up there that might not be a bad thing as the way the weather’s gone now. Proper trier Crosspark and nice jumper, especially at the buisiness end, like the jock Bowen also

    1. Good stuff. I think it’s a case of whether he’s fit/here to run race. Obv a question about the track also but 20s/16s was worth it, esp given his record fresh. And it’s a nice pot to win. We shall see. Likely to be heavy I suspect, still pouring down. If you knew he was fit, he’d be an 8s shot or so I suspect. Anyway. Fingers crossed.

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