2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.General messages/updates/new reports etc
Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/108, 36p +35.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)
Daily Chase Tips: Main
(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)
#1 BOB MAHLER – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/SkyB/BoylS) 22/1 (others) UP
#2 CROSSPARK – 1 point win – 20/1 (Lad/BV/Coral/Betf/Boyle) UP
#3 ROLLING DYLAN – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/WH) 22/1 (gen) UP
that’s all for this race, as of 08.26, write ups etc to follow bottom of post.
Less said about that the better, poor effort, three of the first beaten really, never confident of a run at any stage on final circuit. Bob never jumped, Cross there for the run, Rolling D not great. The winner was unexposed, and an ‘eye-catcher’ LTO from tracker tuesday posts, which I clearly need to put some more time into – he was 0/7,0p fences, and I didn’t rate his jumping LTO, all better runs RH- He did have a 12th fourth in munster national, a fine run in a beginners chase, maiden hurdle performances in soft/heavy – trainer was 0/21,1p here, and i thought this would be too much. 14s this morning, he was price-wised. Got that race all wrong.
Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/32,13p, +9.3)
(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)
None, nothing of interest
2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
Amalfi Doug (all Hc’s) w1 w2 9/1 UP
One For Arthur (m dist and -class) H3 8/1
Gennady (all Hc’s) 11/2
Blooriedotcom (m TJC) 20/1 S2A UP
Vengeur De Guye (m -class) w2 H3 5/1 WON
Effet Special (m -class) G3 10/1 S1 UP
4.40 – Pinspot (m TJC) 7/1
5.15 – Murphy’s Law (all Hc’s) w2 11/4
5.00 – Emily Square (all Hc’s) 12/1
TTP Chase Micros
2.00 Chelt – Cogry (any odds) 7/1 3rd
3.Micro System Test Zone
2.35 Chelt- Torpillo (m2, 16/1< guide) 7/4
5.30 Chelt – Bit On The Side 33/1/ The Newest One 6/1 (m2, 16/1< guide)
Chase Angles 2019/20
2.00 Chelt – Rock The Kasbah (14/1<) 9/1
2.25 Kelso – Voila Eric 9/1 UP
3.10 Chelt- Northern Beau (any odds) 50/1 UP/ Gino Train (10/1<) 11/1 DNQ
4.General messages/updates/new reports etc
Cheltenham Showcase Day 2
1st Run of Season Trainers (16/1<)
2.00 -Cobra De Mai / Rolling Dylan
3.10 – Brelan Das
4.20 – Ramses De Teillee
4.55 – First Assingment / Pym / Secret Investor / Slate House
Hncp Chase Starting Points (16/1<)
Back to The Thatch / Bob Mahler/ Captain Chaos / Cobra De Mai / Minella Rocco / Onefortheroadtom/ Red Infantry / Rock The Kas/ Rockys Treasure/ Rolling Dylan/ Royal Vacation / Shantou Village / West Approach
3.10 – Brelan Das / Knocknanuss/ Marracudja/ Master Work / Saint Calvados
NTD Micro (10/1<)
2.35 – Torpillo
My 12/12 stats leave…
Cobra De Mai / Na Trachtalai Abu/ Captain Chaos/ Cross Park / Bob Mahler/ Back To The Thatch / Rolling Dylan / The Conditional WON 20s>14s
Trainers (to have won race with runners)
- The Young Master/ Shantou Village
- Rock The Kasbah/ Rolling Dylan
- Minella Rocco
TIPS Write Ups
Bob – at 25s/22s i’ll take fitness on trust and if he needs it so be it – but, he’s got a massive year ahead of him as I think he’s a staying chaser to follow, and could have a big handicap pot in him. As soon as he won for us at Cheltenham two starts ago, in facile fashion, his trainer talked about him as a ‘Hennessy’ horse, and that is the target – IF he’s good enough. He comes in here off 139, which wouldn’t guarantee him to get in I don’t think, and in any case, if he’s a Hennessy horse, he needs to go close in this. He won’t mind any softening ground, if on song he travels well enough on or near the pace, jumps well, and he stays. He may prefer the New Course but at the price, i’ll take a chance. Greatrex is in good form and had a novice chase winner on Friday off an absence (one who was tipped at 50s in the Potato race in 2018, and on his last start in the NH chase 2019 – alas, nothing on this time at 12s- darn, one day i’ll be good at this game :)). The way he spoke about Bob in his recent stable tour on Sporting Life (HERE>>> for reference) makes me think he will have him ready. Like I said he may need it, but at the price i’ll pay to find out. It seemed to click at the back end of last season and there could be more to come, on only his 7th handicap chase start. I’ll put a line through his Uttoxeter run, he made an early error and never seemed happy – the track may have been sharp enough I suspect, but he can be moody. But, I just can’t leave him at this price given his profile. He will win a handicap or two this season and I just hope i’m on when he does.
This race could be quite the slog and it may be no bad thing having a ‘pacey’ Eider winner/ Scottish GN 2nd onside – his last three chase runs are some of the best, if not the best, recent handicap chase form on show here. He won’t mind the ground at all, he generally travels well, and jumps well- they can race him cold, but that isn’t like Sean and over this trip, I wonder if he’ll have him in midfield/further forward – they won’t go mad here now the ground is going soft+, so should be able to hold a position. His last run was a career best and at 20s I couldn’t say this mark is beyond him – it’s an unknown, and there could be more to come this season as he could be a late developer, given he was a revelation last season and kept improving. Now, it is his first run here, but clearly big fields/jumping are not a problem. The main question is whether he’s fit and here to fun his race- maybe they have a staying chase pencilled in, but he did win over 26f at Uttoxeter on seasonal return last year – in fact he’s yet to run a bad race on return really. If he’s fit, he’s no 20s shot in these conditions – there won’t be many stronger stayers up this hill, bar Bob above! 🙂
I was agonising over him for an age but decided i’d rather lose the point at 25s than have the pain of watching him win what could be his ‘Gold Cup’ – he’s a character who does find it hard to win, but he never stops – he’s a bit like Singlefarmpayment – if he has to fight, he’s a bit timid – If he’s to win this he may just stroll home all alone, or it will be in an agonising head bob! But he’s got experience of the track- in December he was beaten 1/2L by Cogry/Singlefarmpaymen on the New Course – that was a solid run. When he’s come second, the front two have often been well clear, which is never a bad sign. The ground will be fine for him, which you can’t say about some in here, as the NRs roll in. The smaller the field the better maybe for him. Again, he has a fitness question – but he hits a few of the stats pointers above, inc the race trends profile, and Hobbs has won this race x5 , three were with ‘The King’, but all on seasonal return and just maybe this has been a plan – also, the yard appear to be over whatever was bugging them last season – he’s had 13 chase start, and maybe aged 8, this is his year. Nolan is his regular pilot so no bother there, i’m not sure if Johnson will now ride though. In any case, at 25s, I couldn’t help myself – esp given that Cogry form. He has the ability to win this, and given how he races, it’s hard to know if the handicapper has him or not. But, today could be about who handles conditions best/is fittest, rather that who’s ‘best in’.
PACE… West Approach likes to get on with it, Cogry can be up there and I don’t think Jacob will have Bob that far off the pace – he will be in a no excuses position. The other two will be a bit further back, and I hope not too far, but i’m not talking about 8s shots here.
Of the rest…
Obviously eyes are always drawn to recent tips – if Captain Chaos wins then so be it, but I won’t get involved again until he shows more/the blinkers return – I suspect they have something planned for 3rd/4th start of season. Well, I hope so!
I can live with anything else winning, I just can’t have them at all at the prices.
West Approach was beat in this last year – yes he could make all, but i’m not sure he’s a soft ground slogger around here – obviously everyone can see the Paisley Park form, but this is short, and it’s over fences. He was terrible at Sandown, when think I fancied him, gulp. In any case, he could be me at 7s or so, and now he’s 4s. Madness. But, i can see the case, but not for me.
I can leave Cogry at his price – he’s 10 now and this is his 31st chase start – I can cheer him home at 6s if mine are stuffed, a grand servant. He handles soft but it’s no coincidence he’s generally been campaigned on decent ground in recent years. He was just beaten in this last year and I thought he was open to attack, another year older. Twister has admitted it’s harder to get him fit as he gets older. I’d prefer him over West Approach though and can see why some would fancy him. And plenty in here may not handle conditions, and many, inc my three, may need the run! He will be as fit as they can get him.
I can’t get the support for some of the others… The Conditional is 0/7,0p over fences, he has some ok form, esp in Ireland, but his jumping was scratchy at Worcester LTO- he will be tested around here, and he can beat me. But, young, more unexposed than most.
Onefortheroadtom- the ground is a massive question, he’s usually held up out the back and can hit a fence. And a question as to whether he’s good enough. He’s interesting to a point but not for me. Nor is Back To The Thatch who’s never won fresh and has questions. The yard are in flying form though, albeit don’t do that well here. Mindsmadeup – i wasn’t sure he was a soft ground slogger and his jumping can be iffy also. He is fit and in-form though, and that could count for plenty today, but I can live with him beating me.
Rocks Treasure- i’m not sure about him and I don’t think he wants a soft ground slog either. He’s got a question in big fields over fences as well as a few others. He needs more albeit some of his form reads well. I’m to be convinced this sort of test is up his street. I can leave Royal Vacation who didn’t run that well on return and again, a soft ground slog poses questions for him. If he did handle the ground he could go ok though, if he’s in form.
I think Get On The Yager will need it – I wouldn’t be so sure if Harry or Bridget were booked but he’s a few questions also, as well as fitness, and could take a few runs to get fit.
Red Infantry is of some interest if fit – if Crosspark/Bob are fit and run their race, they’d beat him – but he does stay well and handles the ground. He’s no record fresh as yet over fences, albeit no tries after this sort of break- however he can clout a fence and be ponderous, and I don’t think there’s too much strength to some of his form. But there are worse 28 shots – if he won i’d be staring out the window for a time, but a few too many questions for me. I’m not sure he’ll be good enough, even if a1.
I can leave the other Irish horse on this ground and if Minella Rocco takes this, so be it. I’m not sure connections know what horse will turn up. I can live with him winning and will doff my cap to Stewart if he does.
that’s a wrap.
Best of luck if following.