Free Daily Post: 25/10/19 (complete)

 

Today’s chase tips from my members’ post… my main chase tips are around +57 since late Feb albeit i’m on a losing run of around 9 or so, which given my approach is to be expected (it could get worse before it gets better, that’s racing) but with any luck one of those below can get the job done… Garrane’s price has crashed somewhat since I posted these in the members’ club but 11/2 may still be ok…

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

4.55 Chelt

Garrane  – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/WH/BetfS/PP/Betf)

Plantagenet – 1 point win – 8/1 (WH) 15/2 (gen)

 

A ‘quick’ 15 min video, + written preview >>>

 

I’ve ignored the older brigade, 10s+ in this, even more so given their poor record in the race, and i’ve focused on those chasers who are still open to some progress/younger legs. I suppose there are 5 or 6 who hit that category… Elmono, The Wicket Chicken, Clondaw Rigger… and then the three who are most interesting…

Cobolobo, and the two selections.

Garrane – he ran well on seasonal return last year over fences and the yard are in form. He’s 0/6,5p over fences and is generally consistent. I’ve no concerns on the attitude front. Some of his form reads well, especially his second at Chepstow on his second start last year. The jockey also has an excellent record around here over fences – 3/10- which is a positive in a race like this. He should race prominently enough (well won’t be held up) and he won’t mind if the ground goes softer than i’m anticipating (i’ve worked on basis it will be G-S). He looked worth a go at 7s. There’s always a danger they can be too ‘fresh’ on first run back, but hopefully he drops his head.

Plantagenet – he’s generally consistent and arrives on the back of a run, which looked to be needed – he’s a 14lb swing with Doing Fine and should strip fitter. He also has course form – he ran well in the NH chase, on this Old Course, at the Festival – it was testing enough for him, a proper slog, but he generally jumped and travelled ok until given out around 4 from home. They leave the CP off which confuses me – maybe they think he doesn’t need them now, and he’s won without them  – in any case 8s/15/2 allowed me to roll the dice-  again the jockey booking looks significant – Gina is 4/17,8p over fences at the track in last 5 years (like the jockey above some of those in hunter chases), for +47 to SP. She rides this place well. This one should be front rank, and probably kept wide. If he can get into a rhythm he should be in there pitching late on. If this goes proper soft, it will be one point loaned back, but I don’t think it will. He also ticks my ‘handicap chase starting point’ stats for this meeting.

The dangers…

Cobolobo – I thought 9/2 was getting on the short side when I looked – he’s a chase maiden, maybe too inexperienced with just the 3 chase runs and has failed to complete on 3 of his last 5 starts. His jumping has been scrappy at times and they may not hang around here, which will test him. I didn’t think he’d be prominent either which made this price feel short also. At Ffos las he jumped out to his right a tad. Jonjo is 0/6,0p in the race and the jockey is 0/8,1p at the track, 0/5,0p over fences- albeit a few of those have been unfancied. Many of those concerns may be minor enough, but it’s all in the context of his price.  And it’s his first run here. On the positive side – the yard are in-form (red hot for them) , he’s won fresh (I suspect he’s fit) and he’s open to any amount of improvement. Some of his form reads well, and he should show more at some point this season.  He runs as if he will relish the CD – I could be wrong about his price and he’ll hack up, but I was happy to leave him.

Those three are the most interesting in this in my opinion and it will be a poor enough renewal if one of them doesn’t take it. 

I was happy to leave all those aged 10+, a few of them want better ground I think also – backing older/exposed horses is not a wise long term strategy in races like this in my view and if one of the exposed ones beats me, so be it. Nothing else really jumped out at me.

Clondaw Rigger is unexposed, but rated 105, a very inexperienced jockey and first run in 337 days. He does jump very well, and gallops. He could run a big race but happy to leave today-  he’s got more wins in him this season though at his level,and is one to keep an eye on. The Wicket Chicken – fitness/ground questions, but she stays, and has Jamie Codd on. I thought 7s was only ok, but she’s interesting I suppose.

PACE – well my two should be close enough, and Gina will look to take it up on hers at some point I suspect. Mr Mafia will try to tow them along, Belmount should be up there. This CD has generally been fair – you can win prominently, or held up. Albeit I rarely like my chasers to be too far back, especially around here.

 

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8 Comments

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  • ship ahoy mc ……………….
    just before i pack up base normandie…………….
    6.15 Dundalk 7 Settle Me Down (IRE) = interesting trainer only tried visors on a 2yo once before and it won 🙂 … small e/w defo for me
    7.30 Newcastle 4 Jahrawi (USA) …….. likes the tt on the aw especially newcastle e/w
    8.30 Newcastle 3 Silk Mill Blue ………… loves it at newcastle and last run has primed him up ……. as they did last year …. defo e/w again ??

    that really is it .. laters mc & co 🙂 …… weigh anchor !!!!! 🙂
    gb/bc .. whoever !!

    George B 25/10/19 12:39 PM Reply


    • Cheers G bon voyage!

      Mark Curtis 25/10/19 2:17 PM Reply


  • Beachmasters update Newcastle

    Not too awful last night with Clay Reggazoni and Zeffarino winning and J’ouvert placing (available at 20/1 when posting). Those jammy enough to have weeded out our chaff would have been pleased with themselves.

    G’s picks are above, I just have one for tonight for the following reasons although I could be wrong (it has happened 🙂 ).

    7.30, Mark Johnston’s Trinity Girl is a warm forecast fav at 13/8 with B365. However, when teaming up with Dane O’Neill, Mr J’s strike rate in the last 12 months is 45% win 63% place leading me to back Provocation EW at 11/1. My reasoning could be way off as he runs three in this race but I feel those stats are interesting.

    Good luck if you play.

    Mark Curtis 25/10/19 2:49 PM Reply


  • D’oh! Just seen G has tipped one in Provocation’s race. Makes it a tricky call but everyone can make their own choices!

    Mark Curtis 25/10/19 2:58 PM Reply


    • Mark/GB,

      This looks a nice race for a Trifecta.
      8. Hua Mulan
      11. Untouchable Beauty
      6. Provocation.

      Good Luck.

      Mr T 25/10/19 3:51 PM Reply


      • Cheers Mr T, welcome to the party 🙂

        Mark Curtis 25/10/19 5:07 PM Reply


        • After that I might just leave the tipping to you guys!!

          mr t 25/10/19 8:47 PM Reply


  • Ah, don’t be discouraged we’re wrong more offer than we’re right 🙂

    Mark Curtis 26/10/19 10:43 AM Reply


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