Members Daily Post: 25/10/19 (complete)

write up/video…Main tips x2, Section 2 (complete), test zone, Chelt Day 1 pointers

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/105, 36p +38.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

4.55 Chelt

Garrane  – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/WH/BetfS/PP/Betf) UP

Plantagenet – 1 point win – 8/1 (WH) 15/2 (gen) 2nd, painful – quite the run – well more so a case of ‘never knowing’ given the howler 2 out, which ‘may’ have cost him, but the stronger stayer has won it, so may well have been more agonising but he’s prob lost 5L + loads of energy. Damn. I suppose it was meant to be that a 10 yo, off 500+ days, would do me! 🙂 

That’s all for today, 09.30, write up + video at bottom of post…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/32,13p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Doncaster

4.10 – Starczewski (all Hc’s) w2 ES+ I1 7/1 S3A S6 

5.15 – Railport Dolly (micro age) I3  12/1 

 

Newbury

None

 

JUMPS

Cheltenham

None

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle (14/1<) 

3.10 Chelt – Boreham Bill 14/1

Twister

2.35 Chelt – Al Dancer (m2, 16/1< guide) Evens WON Evens

4.20 Chelt – Stolen Silver (m2, 16/1< guide) 20/1 UP

4.55 Chelt – Belmount (m1) 13/2 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

There’s a new ‘Trends Thursday’ post HERE>>>

 

Some of the ‘micros/starting points’ from one of the reports in the link above…

Cheltenham Showcase Day 1

1st Run of Season Trainers (16/1<) (starting points)

2.00 – LAir Du Vent 4/1 / Champagne Well 9/4

2.35 – Al Dancer Evens / Getaway Trump 6/4

3.10 – Liosduin Bhearna 8/1 / Smarty Wild 7/1/ Storm Goddess 18/1 / Tedham 9/2 / Treasure Dillon 18/1

3.45 – Aye Aye Charlie 15/2/ Rockpoint 10/1

4.20 – Getariver 9/2/ Master Debonair 11/4/ Storm Force Ben 33/1

4.55 – Cobolobo 9/2

5.30 – Falcon Sun 12/1 / Oakley 10/3 / War Brigade 9/1

 

NTD Micro (10/1<)

2.35 – Al Dancer Evens

3.45 – Wholestone 9/4

 

Hncp Chase Starting Points (16/1<)

4.55 – Plantagenet 8/1 2nd

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4.55 Cheltenham 

Trainers (to have won race with runners)

  • Doing Fine / The Wicket Chicken / Fingerontheswitch
  • Belmount
  • Petite Power WON 12/1

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TIPS write ups/video

A ‘quick’ 15 min video, + written preview >>>

 

 

 

I’ve ignored the older brigade, 10s+ in this, even more so given their poor record in the race, and i’ve focused on those chasers who are still open to some progress/younger legs. I suppose there are 5 or 6 who hit that category… Elmono, The Wicket Chicken, Clondaw Rigger… and then the three who are most interesting…

Cobolobo, and the two selections.

Garrane – he ran well on seasonal return last year over fences and the yard are in form. He’s 0/6,5p over fences and is generally consistent. I’ve no concerns on the attitude front. Some of his form reads well, especially his second at Chepstow on his second start last year. The jockey also has an excellent record around here over fences – 3/10- which is a positive in a race like this. He should race prominently enough (well won’t be held up) and he won’t mind if the ground goes softer than i’m anticipating (i’ve worked on basis it will be G-S). He looked worth a go at 7s. There’s always a danger they can be too ‘fresh’ on first run back, but hopefully he drops his head.

Plantagenet – he’s generally consistent and arrives on the back of a run, which looked to be needed – he’s a 14lb swing with Doing Fine and should strip fitter. He also has course form – he ran well in the NH chase, on this Old Course, at the Festival – it was testing enough for him, a proper slog, but he generally jumped and travelled ok until given out around 4 from home. They leave the CP off which confuses me – maybe they think he doesn’t need them now, and he’s won without them  – in any case 8s/15/2 allowed me to roll the dice-  again the jockey booking looks significant – Gina is 4/17,8p over fences at the track in last 5 years (like the jockey above some of those in hunter chases), for +47 to SP. She rides this place well. This one should be front rank, and probably kept wide. If he can get into a rhythm he should be in there pitching late on. If this goes proper soft, it will be one point loaned back, but I don’t think it will. He also ticks my ‘handicap chase starting point’ stats for this meeting.

The dangers…

Cobolobo – I thought 9/2 was getting on the short side when I looked – he’s a chase maiden, maybe too inexperienced with just the 3 chase runs and has failed to complete on 3 of his last 5 starts. His jumping has been scrappy at times and they may not hang around here, which will test him. I didn’t think he’d be prominent either which made this price feel short also. At Ffos las he jumped out to his right a tad. Jonjo is 0/6,0p in the race and the jockey is 0/8,1p at the track, 0/5,0p over fences- albeit a few of those have been unfancied. Many of those concerns may be minor enough, but it’s all in the context of his price.  And it’s his first run here. On the positive side – the yard are in-form (red hot for them) , he’s won fresh (I suspect he’s fit) and he’s open to any amount of improvement. Some of his form reads well, and he should show more at some point this season.  He runs as if he will relish the CD – I could be wrong about his price and he’ll hack up, but I was happy to leave him.

Those three are the most interesting in this in my opinion and it will be a poor enough renewal if one of them doesn’t take it. 

I was happy to leave all those aged 10+, a few of them want better ground I think also – backing older/exposed horses is not a wise long term strategy in races like this in my view and if one of the exposed ones beats me, so be it. Nothing else really jumped out at me.

Clondaw Rigger is unexposed, but rated 105, a very inexperienced jockey and first run in 337 days. He does jump very well, and gallops. He could run a big race but happy to leave today-  he’s got more wins in him this season though at his level,and is one to keep an eye on. The Wicket Chicken – fitness/ground questions, but she stays, and has Jamie Codd on. I thought 7s was only ok, but she’s interesting I suppose.

PACE – well my two should be close enough, and Gina will look to take it up on hers at some point I suspect. Mr Mafia will try to tow them along, Belmount should be up there. This CD has generally been fair – you can win prominently, or held up. Albeit I rarely like my chasers to be too far back, especially around here.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. Morning,

    Had a real struggle narrowing the field down for the 16:55 and I know it goes against all the principles I have set myself, but, it did work in the Munster National, so here goes with the 3…
    16:55 Cheltenham
    BELMOUNT 1pt win 13/2 gen
    Now for me this comes down to the jockeys, the horses need to be doing their bit also, but, ultimately in my opinion it comes down to the pilot steering. I did take a long hard look at PLANTAGENET, but, the horse I feel in this grade is running against the big yins!! saying that may now go and romp home, but, will take my chance! Belmount is an old favourite, is a little quirky, which at 10 is normal and he may finish out the back of the tv, he handles any going and I feel at his age he may need things to slow down for the others to give him a fighting chance, he has run at Cheltenham before, but that was in a class 2 race, he is in a class 3 (which is his level I feel) today and his record in such races is quite good, only when he got upped to class 2 did he struggle. Anyways, a good jockey in Zac Baker is assured that NTD may not blank this year at the October meeting on day one.
    THE WICKET CHICKEN 1pt win 13/2 gen
    Mr Mulholland is 3 handed in this, so, to me it looks like he is wanting to clear up with the prize money, having been an avid follower of the yard, he must feel this is for the taking and i expect Fingerontheswitch to be out the front pulling the field round along with Belmount, if the weather turns as expected then this one may struggle, but, as i said at the top of the piece Mr Codd knows his way round here and it seems strange that Neil has booked the top 2 amateurs in my opinion for this race.
    DOING FINE 1pt win 6/1 gen
    This fella knows his way round here and if I had to single one out even at the age of 11 this fella on this going with Sam Waley-Cohen on board is definitely the one to be on, my eyes were drawn straight to him before anything else. He ran at this meeting last year, but, that was off the back of a long break and this time comes here battle ready and the more rain there is the better I feel. He is clever at his fences and at Cheltenham you need to be, but, I had him around the 4/1 mark and feel the 6/1, 13/2 is value.
    Of the others, well PLANTAGENET will have come on for the run against Doing Fine, just feel it maybe is one step too far, too many question marks over the others, Jonjo may take this one easily, but, like Josh i struggle to read the yard, just when I feel I have it sussed they throw a wobbly and horses that you feel you have read properly run poorly and vice versa…I thought a couple of years ago he was going to be up there battling with the likes of Nicholls and Henderson, then the wheels came off.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys comeback safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. The 4.55 is a tricky race indeed. You cannot back three in this race at those prices as you are only getting just over 2/1 in a competitive race, which is not value. That is not a criticism of the work you have done in the race, just a non value perm bet to highlight to anyone thinking of backing the three.
      Twisting my arm to have a bet here I would go with The Wicket Chicken with Jamie Codd flying over to ride. The horse has had a nice break and has no excuses apart from lack of ability really.

      1. Exactly my thoughts last night, look at what J Codd and Sam waley cohen are riding, but prices reflect that just a watching day today as iv realised i cant make sense of hurdle hcps i gave that up a while ago
        Hopefully get more involved 2moz with the first race on the card

      2. Depends what you class as value, if one of them comes in I am in profit, which is always the aim. Yes, it goes against the grain with the three selections and if it doesn`t come off then fair enough.

        1. I would disagree with the view that ‘If it comes in it is value’ as a rule. Value is about trying to calculate when it is advantageous to make a bet on something at prices available. So, as an obvious example that is much used, is 6/4 on heads in a coin flip value? Yes and the more you toss the coin the more value it becomes. If it comes up tails and you bet tails at 4/5 you win but it is not value.
          Anyway, I enjoy your write ups and keep them coming and good luck with your bets.

        2. I didn`t say it was value, agree with the argument of the coin toss, my point was the profit element of the bet. It was a race I really should have left alone in hindsight, but, am happy to let the 3 run. I didn`t include the winner of the Munster National in my “Official” selections last time and paid the price maybe this time I`ll pay the price also, maybe watching PLANTAGENT romp home thanks to Josh picking it and totally screwing with my head….anyways, let them run..

        3. Stewart i agree with you 3 horses in a race obviously the prices have to be decent say 1 wins at 3/1 to the stake of £10 = £40 return profit of £10 or 25% on returns, please tell me which bank will give you 25% intrest for £10, afraid racing punters do not look at racing as an investment.
          Today on Aruba have put up 6.00 Newcastle Tadreej at 2/1 against the favourite which could be anything on breeding, negatives for me are making its debut also has the worst draw and at 11/10 so is this value for myself no and we are also aware that the boys in blue run their horses on merit and the second string can win.
          Colin

          1. Whatever. It is interesting to see how others see the world.

            I would call Aruba ‘Fruit Cocktail’ instead as it goes better with Tip Top. You have to be of a certain age to get this.

          2. loved tip top with fruit cocktail 🙂 , tinned peaches were always hairy though…bluergh!!

  2. I decided to have a look at the Cheltenham card last night. Will try and post some write ups between now and race time if I can:
    Cobolobo Cheltenham 16:55 1.5pt win
    Storm Rising Cheltenham 17:30 1pt e/w

    1. Cobolobo-Looked the one to beat here and thought he should be more like 3/1-7/2. Is one of the most unexposed horses in the race. He has an excellent record fresh with a 1st and a neck 2nd on his last 2 seasonal re-appearances. He was a neck 2nd to a Grade 1 Festival winner and everything else that ran in the race is rated in the mid 130s on chase debut. The form of his next race has also worked out as the 2nd is now rated in the 140s. He has won on good and heavy so it shouldn’t be a concern how much rain they get. Jonjo is in excellent form. Hopefuly he should be ridden near the front like he was at Chepstow. Whilst he has yet to race at Cheltenham he is 1/3, 2p on very undulating tracks.
      Storm Rising-Absolutely hacked up in this last year and went up a stone for the win. Even with his higher mark he ran a number of solid races in some of the top hurdle handicaps last season. Now only 3lbs above the mark he won this off of. Another who should race with the pace. Whilst he is probably better on good he has won on soft and his 4th in the Imperial Cup off 9lbs higher was on fairly bottomless ground. The reason for the price is his run last time but that was the only time he has ran without blinkers on and they go back on today. If it wasn’t for that he would likely be half the price.

  3. some nice racing today so iv’e had a proper look these are my bets. all 0.5 pt ew unless stated
    Cheltenham.
    3-10. Smarty Wild 1pt ew, Meldrum Lad and Golan Fortune 0.25 pt ew.
    3-45. Boyhood
    4-55, Belmount
    5-30. Storm Rising
    Doncaster.
    3-35. Alaadel
    4-10. Master Of Irony
    5-15. Dutch Uncle
    Newbury.
    4-00. Zeyzoun 1pt ew
    4-35. Teruntum Star

  4. Through the card at Cheltenham:

    2.00. Doctor Duffy for the cunning Mr Charles Byrnes. 3/1 now. Braid Blue has been winning lower grade events but may step up. The favourite, Champagne Well, is well touted but may be a bit one paced?
    2.35. Small field and could be run at not a true pace. I would not want to have a bet here but Al Dancer if I have to.
    3.10, Looks tricky!!!! Henry Daly is going OK this season and I will pick each way Rapper. He has some decent form from last season and at 12/1, plus if you can get BOG.
    3.45. I like Minella Warrior going forward and one to initially follow this season. So an each way punt at 15/2. However if we go down to two places I will change my bet to Wholestone, who looks the best horse on form, to win.
    4.20 Tricky! Go to the bar for this race (and to the Hog Roast for sustenance). My pick would be Cap Du Nathan for Paul Nicholls each way, 7/1 now. The horse looked immature last season but may well step forward with a bit more maturity. Fred the favourite looks very short to me.
    4.55. The Wicket Chicken as per my message above but a hard race to get to the bottom of.
    5.30. Ballydunblaze for Gordon Elliott is bottom weight here. I see 20/1 about on Oddschecker. I would back it Betfair SP for a go but leave early and beat the crowds out of a muddy car park if i was you.

    So good luck and enjoy the racing.

  5. COLINS BETS
    3.35 Doncaster Gabrial The Saint 11/1
    4.00 Newbury Jackpot Royale 8/1
    8.30 Newcastle Silk Mill Blue 11/1
    ORIGINAL
    3.35 Doncaster Gbrial The Saint 11/1
    Colin

  6. TIP TOP
    The clue is in the name anyway they are not doing bad for a difficult month
    9 winners from 30 bets for a level stake profit of 10.9 points and so far the largest price winner is only 8/1, i would be happy with these returns every month.
    ARUBA
    6 winners from 19 bets for a level stake profit of 2.125 points and so far the largest price winner is only 4/1, again October is always a difficult month and certainly not helped with all the rain.

    Both methods are over 20 years old and for myself i am happy with the performance of both so far, and to think the bets are found in about 5 mins, only real check at the moment do they act on soft or heavy and of course the price!
    Have said it before you can spend hours going over form and spend money on Racing Post noticed the other day they are charging £3.20 midweek for the rag must look tomorrow to see what they charge on Saturday, have done this myself over the years, so many hours wasted.
    The 3 simple methods of mine which all take about 5 mins to find the bets are
    ELITE which is over 180 points this year so far
    TIP TOP which is 10.9 points up so far this month
    Aruba 2.125 points up this month.

    Warning TIP TOP and Aruba are not proven for the past 20 years but the signs are looking good starting from 1st October, so if you are going to invest on them be weary for they both can fail.
    Colin

    1. Good stuff Colin. Yep you wouldn’t complain at +10 a month on average, every month, forever more! 🙂 Not loaded with masses of bets either, which is always a positive for those who don’t like reems of bets a day, unless that’s just the time of year etc.
      From your memory/records, do they work equally well over flat /jumps /AW?
      Josh

      1. Josh yes they both work on all codes.

        It was something that Jamie Osbourne said on his video 3 months ago reminded me of the methods and watched them for September but did not record them once again time will tell if they are successful again, and i am sure they will be.
        Colin

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