Members Daily Post: 24/10/19 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/103, 35p +40.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

#1 3.30 Carl – CAIRNSHILL – 1 point win 8/1 (bet365/WH/BV) 15/2 (others) 2nd 1/4 L, 9/1… ah, frustrating, I always thought he was going to get there! another day, better ride, he probably takes that, but I knew the risks with both his style, and the jockey, built into price. She took too long to get after him- a shame the winner didn’t need it, winning with cut/RH/career high mark, which is frustrating on 15th chase start. No issues leaving him at morning odds. The rest well stuffed. Still, always more pos than negs from that sort of effort.

that’s all for main tips, as of 08.00

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/32,13p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#2 4.05 Carl – RYALEX – 1 point win – 13/2 (gen) UP, no excuses there, poor pick, didn’t run very well.

that’s all for today, as of 09.18, write ups at bottom of post…

 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Carlisle

3.00 – Oscar Wilde (micro TJC) I3 G3 11/1 S1 UP

4.05 –

Air De Rock (HcCh) G3 5/1 UP

Knocknamona (m age) 16/1 S2A UP

4.35 – Lough Kent (m runs) H3 I3 11/1 UP

5.10 – Strike West (m age) H3 G3 9/2 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Ludlow

2.35 – Ballygown Bay (all Hc’s) ES+ 9/1 S3A UP

4.15 – Glimpse Of Gold (HcCh) I3  9/2 

4.45 – Global Tour (HcH) 30 w1 H1 I1 15/8  3rd

 

Southwell

3.20 –

Fontley House (HcH) I3 10/1 2nd

Lord Sparky (HcH,m TJC) w1 ES+ H3 5/1 S3A PU

3.50 –

Floral Bouquet (HcH) G1 12/1 S1

Oriental Cross (m class) w2 I3 G3 3/1 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister

2.25 Carl – Good Boy Bobby (m2, 16/1< guide) 5/1 UP, 2nd/photo

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

3.40 Lud – Storm Control (10/1<) 3/1 UP

 

LTO Winners Starting Points  (12/1<) 

2.35 Lud – Midnight Magic 10/3 2nd 

3.30 Carl – Buddha Scheme 4/1  UP

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4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Tips write ups…

3.30 Cairnshill…

8s seemed big to my eyes and I wasn’t sure why he was twice the price of Buddha Scheme, and the top of the market looks worth taking on.

It was noticeable at the last meeting here that many of the winners came into their races with runs under their belt/fit, and i’m hoping that may work out again today. This horse hasn’t really run a bad race since switching to this yard from Ireland in March – certainly not when getting a trip. Over hurdles he ran a couple of crackers, including hacking up here in April, and then at Cartmel in a ‘C2’ off this mark in May over 25.5f. A mixture of running over too short a distance and the ground, have been excuses since, still running well. I’m not sure what happened at MR but a chance the track didn’t suit and it was on the back of a hard run in soft.

He made his chase debut LTO in a dramatic race, won by the Russell horse who re-opposes here. He was given an interesting ride-  held up right out the back, in part as a gentle introduction to jumping maybe – I thought he travelled and jumped well, probably on ground softer than ideal. Approaching the turn for home he was bang there, but the jockey wasn’t moving, in comparison to Fox on the eventual winner. The two in front smacked the last, leaving the race to him. Clarke got busy after the last but for a horse who stays 26f, he wasn’t getting there, but staying on well enough. I suspect if she’d got after him much sooner, he could have won that…

So, he returns to a handicap, second chase start, to a track where he’s got form (not over fences, but form up this hill is no bad thing), having jumped well LTO, from a mark he’s won off over hurdles, and he’s hard fit. Provided he gets round, and his jockey isn’t overly patient, and mis-judges it, he should be challenging up this hill. In any case, 8s allowed the play. He will appreciate the ‘good’ in the going I think, and it could be the last of this ground for a while. Given his course form i’d like to think he’s here to run his race, for a team that won for us on King Golan a few weeks back.

Of the rest…

Donnas Delight is clearly the interesting one, unexposed, with some ok form, and runs as if this trip could be the making of him. He may win well at 11/4 but I was happy to take him on given it’s his first run of the season, and Sandy Thompson hasn’t had a winner since February. I thought he may want it softer and even around here could get tapped for toe. I could be wrong but the sort of 11/4 shot to take on I think. But it’s his 5th chase start, and they’ll be more to come at some point, and Hughes gets on with him well.

Classical Milano will try and make all I suspect but isn’t overpriced given the general level of his form – he has questions RH, at the track, and indeed the distance – 24f is fine, questions over a stiff 26f, so all that makes 7/2 short enough for me. But he’s in form, can jump, and may get a freebie, which is always dangerous.

Budda Scheme may take this but a question over the ground (more an unknown though) and he needs to build on LTO. I didn’t think the selection should be twice the price to overturn it, given the step up in trip/ground could be more in his favour, and the jockey may get busier earlier!

Bafana Blue – he has a fitness question and is on a career high mark, open to attack from something with more in hand, and also a RH question. He can beat me at 13/2, as can Total Assets at 15/2, aged 11, 0/6 on seasonal return, probably needing further in this ground and 0/18, OR 111+. If she wins, so be it, not the type to be with long term given those factors. If the Grant horse wins, well, time for a stiff drink.

Cairnshill looked overpriced, and win, lose or draw, at 8s i’m more than happy to play him.

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Ryalex – another where i’m hoping fitness may come into play – I suspect he needed it LTO and also Perth would have been sharp enough for him. Russell does well enough with her handicap chasers here on their second start in 90 days, and had a chase winner at the last meeting here on his second run back. This horse does enjoy it around here and has many decent efforts, along with the odd tumble. I’m not sure this mark is beyond him as yet and there could be more to come – they put a 1st Tongue Tie on him (again LRs stats with those in handicap chases is solid, inc here) which ‘could’ make a difference. He could hate it and run a shocker, always a small risk of that but i’d like to think they’ve tried it at home.

This is certainly his level, having hacked up in a C4 CD handicap chase last November. Back here in December he was beaten 4l in a deeper C3, over 1.5f further, in testing ground. He only gave out in the last 100 yards – the two in front were Didero Vallis (127) and Luckofthedraw (132), he had the 123 rated Trongate in behind. Solid, and a better race than this – that’s what makes me think 113 may be within range. He lost to Pookie Pekan here also, the front two miles clear – but there’s a 6lb swing today, and he has a fitness edge – i hope that’s enough to overturn that form. He should race up there and provided he jumps well, should give me a run for my money.

What of the rest…

Sebastian Beach is solid to a point but that was a poor race LTO, beating horses in the low 100s/90s, the winning distance exaggerated by a late faller (albeit he was well on top). He could follow up but I was happy to take on at 10/3.

Duke Debarry is unexposed and Ellison couldn’t be in much better form, inc with chasers making seasonal return. He does have some questions to answer but is unexposed. His novice chase win for Henderson came over 25f, so a question whether this trip will be sharp enough/ideal. He wasn’t in great form when last seen either. At 9/2 I can leave but clearly I wont’ be shocked if he won.

Nor I suppose would I for Air De Rock, as Venetia time creeps ever closer – he does have a slight stamina question at this stiff track, but fitness should be fine and he was going to hack up on return last season- still, he’s on a mark of 120 which he has to prove and only ran ‘ok’ at Bangor after his hack up job in a mediocre enough race at Hunt. He also arrives on the back of two UR, and like I say he fell on return last season, and this is his first run here over fences- I couldn’t wade in at 9/2, but I can see the case, to a point, again, happy to leave/take on.

I can leave the rest – Pookie Pekan has a fitness question on return, albeit the yard in form, as does Sandhurst Lad who could find this happening too quickly, as could King Golan, who’s won for us at Hexham – he will blast off, but should get caught at some point – they wouldn’t want to give him too much rope though as he stays, and if Clarke gets the fractions right he could out-run his odds- but is open to attack from something with more in hand, and more toe over this trip.

I can’t have the other two. I think Hammond’s needs it softer , o/14,0p with ‘good’ in the going, and needs to step forward massively from LTO. He may well have needed it, and he is a CD winner, and did beat mine when he didn’t seem to run his race, but some questions, even at 16s/20s. This is his 16th handicap chase, and he’s open to attack from less exposed legs.

With any luck Ryalex is front rank, tracking King Golan, and runs his race.

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Trends Thursday post… that’s my next task, with a focus on Cheltenham. So, look out for that post around lunchtime I suspect…

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Overpriced?
    just a few that look overpriced today might be worth a 2nd look.
    Southwell
    3-20. Moorlands Mist 50-1, very well handicapped on old form and 5lb claimer should give a bit more help.
    4-25. Duck Egg Blue 10-1, c&d winner back in a handicap anything above single figures looks generous
    Thurles
    1-45. Brogine 50-1, nh flat and 3 time winner over hurdles so not without some ability, back up to 2m4f and 5 lb claimer on board.
    2-15. Western Sea 7-1, steadily improving and should be more to come on handicap debut.
    Carlisle
    3-00. Raise A spark 40-1, had good early season form last year, recent wind op and now tries tongue tie.

    martin whittle 24/10/19 8:42 AM Reply


  • TIP TOP
    5.10 Carlisle Craig Star 5/2
    5.45 Wolverhampton Brigand 7/2
    8.00 Chelmsford Zefferino 4/1
    ARUBA
    3.40 Ludlow Storm Control 9/2
    8.00 Chelmsford Zefferino 4/1
    Colin

    cleafe 24/10/19 10:11 AM Reply


  • This week at Cheltenham – Now that the jumps are back I was listening to a podcast where someone expressed the opinion that you should give the opening meeting at Cheltenham a miss as form etc is not stable enough yet and that it is not a meeting that is a guide to the Festival in March.

    I have not had the time to look at this but have the following thoughts:

    Every race has a winner and form is not the be all and end all of picking horses, it is not that easy. I would have thought that you would still apply the principles of looking at horses with course form, stay well and are suited going left handed.
    With regard to the Festival, well…it is in the spring and the ground is usually different from what is in the autumn.

    Any thoughts?

    martin colwell 24/10/19 10:14 AM Reply


    • You may find some of these notes of interest Martin, just published,

      https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Chelt-October-2019-Part-1.pdf

      Of some note… nearly half of winners were making seasonal return, and nearly half had never set foot on Cheltenham before… (albeit course form seems important for handicap chases)

      This time of year is always tricky, some caution advised, and i’m clearly not one for wanting to sit out most of Oct/early Nov!

      Josh

      Josh

      Josh 24/10/19 12:40 PM Reply


      • Yes your piece makes sense Josh. I will be looking at those 7/1 + from stables that are in decent form as a starter. Stamina will come in to play as usual here. However some races look an opportunity to back a decent priced winner.

        martin colwell 24/10/19 2:57 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    3.00 Carlisle Attention Seeker 7/2
    8.00 Chelmsford Zefferino 4/1
    8.00 Chelmsford My Amigo 7/2
    ORIGINAL
    3.00 Carlisle Attention Seeker 7/2
    5.00 Chelmsford Sophar So Good 5/2
    8.00 Chelmsford Zefferino 4/1
    Colin

    cleafe 24/10/19 10:16 AM Reply


  • Some picks from Lambourn:

    Jamie Snowden;

    Win – 3.10 Lud, Redbridge Gold.
    Each Way – 2.10 Southwell, Tractor Fred.

    Warren Greatrex;

    Win – 4.55 Southwell, Kemble’s Cascade.
    Each Way – 3.20 Southwell, Speedy Cargo.

    I will give an update at month end as to how the relevant trainers are doing.

    martin colwell 24/10/19 10:24 AM Reply


  • Lud’ 2.35 Ballygown Boy….. 8.0 NFH
    Sout’ 2.45 Blackfinch……….. 9.0 NH
    Lud’ 3.10 Shantou Sunset…. 9.0 NH

    Back at 4.30 with an AW update.

    Tim Hanson 24/10/19 12:36 PM Reply


    • Chel’ 7.00 Reims……………. 7.0

      Tim Hanson 24/10/19 4:36 PM Reply


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