Members Daily Post: 22/10/19 (complete)

Write ups, Test tip x1,Main tip x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone, new micro monday…

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/102, 34p +41.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.35 Exeter – ANOTHER STOWAWAY – 1 point win – 12/1 (betfS/PP/BV) 10/1 (gen) UP, poor. Never really travelled or jumped that well, error early knocked him back and seemed out of comfort zone. Close to winner as per write up, but not close enough much to my frustration- it was clear after 2 fences he’d be going close there, blinkers, jockey, more aggressive ride all made a difference – and clearly he’s handled the ground fine.

that’s all for main chase tips, as of 08.35…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/31,13p, +10.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

4.40 Exeter – WEST WIZZARD – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/WH/BV) 15/2 (others) UP, ran ok to a point, but not much over last two. Primal Focus – well my post in comments rather apt , as reason for last two runs explained.

that’s it for all tips, as of 09.15, write ups at bottom of post…

 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Yarmouth

3.25 – Lord Halifax (micro age) 14 3/1 

 

JUMPS

Exeter

1.50 – Sienna Royale (m class) 10/1

3.00 –

Jubilympics (all Hc’s) 14,30 H3 5/1 3rd

Max Forte (m dist) I1 G3 11/1 S1 UP

3.35 – Le Boizelo (HcCh) G1 12/1 S1 UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jockey Angles 2019/20

3.35 Exet – Viens Chercher (17/2< guide) 25/1 DNQ

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW

A new Micro Monday post READ HERE>>>

It takes a look at Venetia Williams… her runners/micro angle for November… there’s also a couple of videos (both under 10 minutes!), the first one looking at said angle in HRB, and the second at her handicap chasers in November/December, broken down by pace score – which is worth a watch. In essence her handicap chasers in November/December, aged 5-8, that you think may lead/race prominently, are worth plenty of consideration. As has been the case for a few years now, qualifiers for this Venetia angle will be posted, in the Test Zone, likely under ‘autumn trainers’.

You can find all of that HERE>>>

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Tips write ups…

3.35 Another Stowaway…

I’ll be running for the hills if this one drifts beyond 16/1 given since 2003 George’s handicap chasers with an SP of 18/1+ are 1/144, 13p… winners hard to find! 🙂 Such a drift would indicate this one will need it, however at his price I was happy to roll the dice. Tom George can ready them if he wants and he’s 3/11,6p with his handicap chasers here returning 60+ days off. The horse has bolted up after 94 days previously and given it looks like he needs decent ground, i’d have thought he’d be spot on. This is only his 5th handicap chase and there should be more to come this season. He’s clearly had the odd issue and has had another wind op, but again his first run after that may be the time to catch him.

I think he has some of the best form in this, inc back in his hurdles days when chasing home a subsequent G2 winner in his Aintree Maiden hurdle (nearly winning at 80/1). Over fences… in May 2018 he ran a decent second to Amour De Nuit (137 at the time, won twice since). I think the ground may have done for him in October that year, but then he had a break, a wind op, and returned at Leicester in Jan 19, 2m6f on GF, and bolted up off 127. That race worked out well, Forth Bridge bolting up on his next start and the two further back also winning since. They were all lightly raced chasers in the 129-137 bracket. He then ran over CD in Feb, only beaten 2 1/2 L, decent form – the winner was unexposed for Nicholls off 137, winning again since. The race LTO may have been over too short a distance, getting outpaced, but also he did stumble mid race, which may not have helped.

George has liked this horse for a while and it could be a big season for him. Given his profile and with some RPRs of 141, i’d like to think there’s more to come. He jumps well and should race prominently, tracking the pace. The yard are also starting to hit some form, after their big priced winner at MR a few days back – he was making his seasonal return also. It looks like Burke could be the go-to jockey for George this season so the booking could be significant. (albeit only jumps meeting today)

I thought he was overpriced. I can leave Reikers Island at 7/2 given he’s got 1st time out fitness to prove after such a break (as does mine but 7/2 plays 12s). He can jump out to his right and he was fresh enough on his return at this track last year. He’s also got to step forward again, which he may well do.

Cresswell Legend – I think he needs to step forward as his form is only ‘ok’ – Bailey is only 2/53 at the track, 0/17,5p in handicap chases last 5 years, and the inexperienced Chester Williams rides. The horse can jump low and clatter one as well, and there could be no hiding place around here. He’s another lightly raced chaser though (there’s a few in here) and I won’t be shocked if he wins but i’ll leave at 4s.

I can leave Midnight Chill at 11/2 given the stamina unknown and his general level of form. This is the deepest chase he’ll have run in. But, there could be more to come and the trainer is red hot , as is his jockey. Didn’t seem overpriced to my eyes though.

Above Board has a decent record fresh but is usually held up and another that needs to step forward. He wasn’t in the best form when last seen either and it’s another track where RMs stats could be better- but maybe they’ll improve today. I didn’t think much to his general level of form and can leave, but a big run wouldn’t shock me given his record after a break.

What A Moment has had 700+ days off and given he’s won the Amateur’s race at Cheltenham (Nov) in 2016 and 2017, I do wonder if this is a prep for another go there next month. In any case it’s hard to know his well being but the yard are going well.

Golden Sunrise WON needs the blinkers to work – and even if they do it’s hard to know if he’ll be good enough on ground that ‘could’ be lively enough (but an unknown – he does look a unit, but a plodder who may appreciate a proper soft ground slog). He looks hard work, but the headgear could transform him and there should be plenty more to come in time…

Of interest… Colin Tizzard…

  • All Chases
  • 1st time blinkers
  • 3m+

8/27,10p, +93 BFSP…

those beaten more than 30L but completed are 0/6,0p, the winners generally having run well/or been PU. But, solid stats to note. He may make 9s or so look decent if they work and if he’s travelling well early and jumping, I could be in trouble.

I was happy to leave the other 3 for various reasons.

There’s 3 or 4 who can get on with it here, including mine. He should be in a no excuses position and with any luck will take it up turning for home.

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West Wizzard… I thought 8s was big given his generally consistent form since last Sepetember, some of which is the best in this race by a distance. IF he runs his race, I think he’s the one to beat.

Yes he’s 10, albeit with a similar number of chase runs as Triple Chief, but the oppo are not up to much. His win at Market Rasen last September was very good in the context of this race, and he did it cosily come the line – the 5 horses in behind him there have gone on to win 12 races between them. He ran well at Fontwell in June over too far, carrying 12-3 – but still ran well and took it up after 3 out. The second at MR to Brave Spartacus was ok also, getting going too late, the winner having dictated, he was closing all the way to the line. He’s then run three times in France, two of the efforts very good, beaten by thoroughly unexposed 4/5 year olds. I’m not sure what happened LTO, but maybe he was missing Adrian Heskin who returns today. Trainer/jockey are 4/14,8p, +13 in the last year.

He’s some superb RPRs on recent runs… 117s/116s, which are up there with his best and much better than anything in this line up. The tongue tie also returns, last worn at MR before he headed to France. (albeit maybe they don’t have to be declared over there, not sure) We shall see if that translates to today’s race.

I thought this CD may suit him. but has that to prove. Heskin won’t be near the front on him but has ridden him in midfield before, and often moves him up in good time.

Of the rest… well I was happy to leave at the prices…

Write It Down needs to CP to work again (which they may) but was held up LTO, and he hit his fences in his runs before that – he seemed short, especially given the level of the form- but he’s unexposed, so a danger, but not overpriced IMO. I can leave Brown Bear at 4s given he’s been finding it hard to win and is now up in class- but has been consistent I suppose and in these races that can count for plenty.

First Figaro could be a danger IF the blinkers work again – he ran in snatches LTO but may appreciate this track- he should have won I think but pulled back when hitting the front, or maybe the other one just wanted it more and i’m being harsh. In any case he isn’t one to trust which made 9/2 seem short enough.

Triple Chief could well be the main danger. BF will have him up there I suspect. The break is a slight niggle esp after his effort LTO and he’s yet to win after 60+ days off, albeit not many goes – I think the selection has more class, but of course he may not run his race. Of those above mine in the market, this is the one that concerns me albeit often finds one or two too good.

If something else wins I wasn’t finding them. Primal Focus – his Stratford run suggested he may have a chase in him but he’s done nothing the last twice- maybe the shuddering error that day has knocked his confidence- i’d want to see more, albeit it’s the sort of race where something can just pop up

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. nothing stands out today but a few of interest , have backed a couple early doors bog . bets shown.
    Yarmouth.
    1-40. Dragon Command
    3-25. Harmonise/Great Hall
    4-00. Collodi £2-50 ew @ 22-1 sky
    5-00. Ocean Temptress
    Exeter.
    1-50. Foxy Act/Thomas Blossom
    2-25. Horse Force One £2 ew @ 20-1 bv
    3-00. Max Forte
    3-35. Cresswell Legend/Above Board
    4-40. West Wizard

  2. Systems selections:

    Karl Burke at Newcastle – 2.35 Foreshore; 3.45 Macho Time; 4.20 Robotique Danseur.

    Good luck.

  3. COLINS BETS
    5.20 Newcastle Mr Greenlight 15/2
    5.30 Kempton Mabo 9/2
    7.00 Kempton Turn To Rock 5/1
    ORIGINAL
    5.20 Newcastle Mr Greenlight 15/2
    5.30 Kempton Mabo 9/2
    6.00 Kempton Pikes Corner Cross 15/8
    Colin

  4. A ‘new’ trainer website to bookmark for those of you who like reading through such things, from Christian Williams, who’s added a ‘latest news’ section which will be updated twice weekly…

    You can find that here>>> https://christianwilliamsracing.com/latest-news/

    If the honesty/information on Primal Focus is anything to go by, it could offer useful insight…
    As below… (runs in the 4.40 Exet, has been nibbled at)

    It could be a fairly quiet start to the week but PRIMAL FOCUS owned by John Stanaway, Paul Stanaway and Nicola Reed will go to Exeter on Tuesday. I was a little disappointed with his last couple of runs but we did some tests which showed his blood wasn’t spot on. Therefore he’s been given some supplements to put that right and now he’s back down to his last winning mark he should be competitive sometime soon. As his blood wasn’t 100% I’ve not been too hard on him at home so it could be he’ll just benefit from the run particularly on a stiff track but keep an eye on him for the future.

  5. Lambourn _ Jamie Snowden.

    3.35 Exeter, Midnight Chill each way at 6/1 +. The trainer thinks that the horse will come on for this run but also thinks that he will go well.

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