Members Daily Post: 19/10/19 (complete:9.34)

test tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/101, 34p +42.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/29,13p, +12.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

4.20 Market R – WHOSHOTWHO – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen)

that’s all for my tips today, as of 09.19, write up…

Everything would point to this being the target for this horse. He’s gone well fresh before but there are no concerns with this yard, if they want them ready. His 60+ day stats here are very good and trainer/jockey are 3/10,5p when teaming up in C2 handicaps, 60+ days off – 1/6,3p over fences. They are 6/15,7p when teaming up in handicap chases at the track, 2/5 with those returning 60+ days. I’m sure Sam could have ridden his Dad’s horse in this, especially given the pot on offer, and it should be significant that he’s on this one.

The horse brings solid form to the table, is 2/2 over CD, and is still open to progress. He should be shorter than Royal Village in my view, given they dead-heated over CD, but he’s up 16lb from when they met, the selection up 4 – there’s quite the weight swing which in theory should make a difference ‘if’ they both run their race. He’s got some solid form to his name and I thought he looked the most interesting at the prices.

The Vaughan horse is 12s or so and is unexposed, but again guessing as to fitness, more so with this yard than Newlands I feel, and he may find this test sharp enough around here. He needs to step up anyway.

Luck of the Draw won for us LTO and is clearly a danger, but Nailor does put me off at 5s, esp with my view that Sam had the choice. He does need to step up here, up in class, and that race LTO did have a ‘summer jumping’ feel with the horses in behind, but of course he’s open to progress. He’ll go close you’d feel but I’ve picked the other one – were Sam on this it may well have swung it, so we shall see if i’ve got that right.

I was happy to leave the others for various reasons, some a bit more exposed, and questions over their marks/with it to prove etc, some with the odd stamina question also over this 2m6f (rail movements have added 200+ yards to advertised distance)

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2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Catterick

4.30 –

Captain Jameson (3yo+,micro runs) H1 5/1 

Right Action (m dist) I3

Summer Daydream (3yo+)

Zip (m dist and age)

Wasntexpectingthat (m dist and age)

 

Ascot

None

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JUMPS

Ffos Las

4.15 – Clyne (HcH,m TJC) ES+ H3 I3 5/1 S3A#

4.50 –

Joueur Bresilien (m class) ES+ G3 9/2 S3A

Alf n Dor (m dist) 16/1 S2A

 

Market Rasen

4.20 –

Whoshotwho (HcCh,m age) 7/1 

Copper West (all Hc’s) 16/1 S2A

 

Stratford

4.05 – Perfect Myth (all Hc’s,m age) G3 11/1 S1

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TTP Chase Micros

4.50 FL – Alf N Dor (6/1<)  16/1 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers 

C Longsdon 

4.20 MR – Vivas (12/1<) 8/1 

Twister

3.10 MR – Wicked Willy (m4, 11/2< )  8/1 

345 MR – Earl of The Cotswolds (m2, 16/1< guide) 9/4 

4.20 MR – Luckofthedraw (m1) 5/1 

3.30 Strat – One Forty Seven (m1) 3/1 

2,25 FL – Vienna Court (m2, 16/1< guide) 14/1 

5.20 FL – One Fine Man (m2, 16/1< guide) 11/2 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.35 FL – Tidal Flow (14/1<) 2/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Jumps Horse To Follow

I’ve pulled the three recent free guest blog posts into one document – 5 Novice chasers from Paul Ferguson, some to follow direct from the trainers (thanks to Geraint Williams via Twitter) and Adam Norman’s 10 to follow (from last year’s guest posts) >>>

You can read this HERE>>>

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Evening,
    Early prices again and write ups to follow.

    16:15 Ffos Las
    BELTOR 1pt win 7/1 gen
    COLONEL CUSTARD 1pt win 7/1 365 6/1 gen

    16:20 Market Rasen
    LUCKOFTHEDRAW 1pt win 7/1 365 6/1 gen
    ROYAL VILLAGE 1pt win 5/1 gen

    RV is one i think that may drift, Valdez is being backed, so, up to you if you can get BOG or Betfair, fill your boots.

    1. I see your Royal Village, and I raise you Whoshotwho for me Stewart. Minefield with the prices tho think il wait till the morning

    2. BELTOR
      Having watched a couple of his races, he looks smart, he does need a small field and at 11 runners this comes in to my categorisation under that rule. with a light weight in this and the prevailing soft going, which at Ffos las is winter soft, he should sluice through it as they say. I assume Tom O`Brien cannot do the weight, or, maybe it`s the fact that Royal Village has an outstanding chance up at MR, but, Michael Nolan has ridden the horse before, so, no problem on that score. His trainer has stood him down for 164 days, so, can only assume this was the target race and he has run well off a break before. 7/1 value.
      COLONEL CUSTARD
      I`m hoping our old friend Mr Jacob can get a tune out of this one, he is still a baby and may just need this, but, if anyone can get these babies to settle and run well it`s Darryl Jacob. When he ran here in January both him and the second and third pulled well clear, he jumped the last awkwardly, but, stayed on again in good style, so, hoping for a repeat at good odds here 7/1 value.
      LUCKOFTHEDRAW
      This one owes me nothing and I am a little disappointed with our bookies, 3 pts separating the front 5 in the betting. LOTD is favourite all out for me, will have come on for the run lto, has won over c and d lto, suppose the only thing to look at really is jockey change, but, for me I think that only makes the difference if the horse is a bit quirky, this fella ain`t, just something was amiss last season and it looks like it has been put right. He has bags of ability and the one thing that makes him different from Whoshotwho is he can fight, if a horse comes up alongside he will dig in, something I believe that WSW does not have, did have a long hard look at him also, but, for me the bookies I feel have his price about right. If he wins, so be it, as Josh always says. I cannot have him though.
      ( On the front of horses who cannot fight Bramble Brook is another who i feel won`t put up a fight, he looked all over the winner 3 out, maybe it was tired legs, or younger legs beat him, but, I believe it`s “fight” in a loose terminology that sometimes horses lose, or win, cant remember the horse at 13 yrs old at Chepstow who won about 3 on the bounce early season, wouldn`t give in and I know that is the exception to the rule, but, overall you will see some horses, just sort of give up when another battler comes alongside, suppose it`s the old survival of the fittest line rather than anything else!)
      ROYAL VILLAGE
      Now, have had this one a couple of times and like i said earlier Mr O`Brien has not come up here for a day out, he is the one most feared as he has an engine and also that “fighting” spirit, this is going to be a slogging match between all of these and it`s who cracks first, he finished 2nd in July to the smart Casablanca Mix and the rest of the field were strung out. LTO he battled to keep a straight line at Southwell and was nearly ran out at the last fence through no fault of his own, he oozes class and he may be head and shoulders above this lot, we shall see…

      As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

      1. Well done for taking on these races. They look competitive and not betting propositions today. But I will do the cross doubles in support.

      2. The claimer switch is an issue for me Stewart, maybe its a niggle that i need to shake off but it definatly isunless they’v rode the horse quite alot and also won on it. But i left LOTD for that reason, and STD riding for Newland. Does he have to do that or is it his choice??
        Vivas and Mellow Ben both out quickly enough, was down to Royal Village and Whoshotwho, they raced last year at this track so no problems for both there, dead heated there and even tho was a good few races ago, if it came down to a battle again id be thinking Whoshotwho would prevail after giving away 5lbs that day and today in receipt of weight not having had as many races

      3. I cannot complain, got a run for my money in both races, plus, was correct about Whoshotwho, as he folded quite early, the soft ground must be taking it out on all of them and class told at Ffos Las! Suppose that is what i can take out of those two races….on we go!

        1. Yes Royal Village looked the sure winner when he flew over the 2nd last, dont know what happened with Whoshotwho, thought was getting the dream run up the inside, seemed to be travelling well then just dropped like a stone, dont know if clattered a fence??
          Bit puzzled

          1. Yea too bad to be true. Wasn’t ground etc. On strict collateral form he should have been ahead of Royal V but alas he hasn’t run his race for whatever reason. Maybe he did hurt himself albeit having been backed was weak before the off.
            Wasn’t that close to the winner which is annoying, 25s gen in morning so some more pondering there. Royal V has run a cracker, just run into a better handicapped less exposed one. We move on. A sticky period for me but many of those happen, esp given what ROIs were etc but must work harder.

  2. Just been going through the ascott card
    Guna have steam coming out of ears 2moz there’s that much sport on, early get up to get all set for the rugby!!!!

  3. Ascot through the card
    1-35. The Tin Man 11-1 £4 win money back if placed
    2-10. Withhold 12-1 £2 ew
    2-45. Klassique 28-1 £2 ew 4 places
    3-20. Century Dream 16-1 £2 ew, Imaging £1 ew 50-1
    4-00. Addeybb £4 ew 6-1 nap
    4-40. Waarif £2ew 33-1 6 places
    only other bet tonight
    Market Rasen 4-20. Royal Village 5-1 bog £8 win
    anything else in morning.

    1. just a few to add.
      Catterick.
      3-25. Teruntum Star 12-1 £2 ew 4 places
      3-55. Cape Isley £2 ew, Super Kid 28-1 £1 ew
      4-30. Start Time £2 ew
      Ffos Las.
      3-35. Momella 3-1 £4 win
      4-15. Tombstone 50-1 £1 ew
      £58 staked

  4. Leopardsdown
    4:10 askerana

    Catterick
    2:15 samille
    3:55 Anna bunina

    Stratford
    4:35 hurricane Rita

    Ascot
    3:20 imaging
    4:40 flaming spear

  5. MC nap of the day is in the 4.40 Ascot, Amedeo Modigliani at 7/2 now for 2 points win.
    This one was a derby prospect earlier in 2019 and has attracted support. Lord North drops back in distance and may not be so effective?

    Sands Of Mali in the 1.35 is the each way pick at 14/1.

    Good luck.

  6. TIP TOP
    5.00 Catterick Shine Baby Shine 9/1
    5.05 Wolverhampton Sayesse
    ARUBA
    2.00 M/R Hotter Than Hell 7/2
    5.05 Wolverhampton Sayesse 7/2
    Colin

  7. Lambourn trainers – an unusually upbeat Charlie Hills today – positive words each way for:
    1.35 Ascot Khaadem; 3.20 Ascot Phoenix Of Spain; 4.40 Ascot Pogo.

  8. Strat’ 1.45 Doc Penfro…………… 9.0 NH
    MR 2.00 Velkera……………….. 7.0 NH
    Leop’ 2.30 Meeting……………… 10.0 NFH
    MR 2.35 Flow Away…………… 10.0 NH
    MR 3.10 Eyesopenwideawake 9.0 NFH
    MR 5.30 Boleybeg…………….. 12.0 NH

    Not expecting them all to make the minimum. Back at 4.00 with Wolves.

      1. FL 5.20 Mille Sussuri …………….12.0 NH
        Wolv’ 5.40 Kitten’s Joy ……………12.0 NH
        Wolv’ 7.15 Whisper Aloud………. 11.0 NFH

  9. Yes will second that, your analysis piece on twister is a great piece of work, and i’ve had a fantastic days betting , many thanks Josh

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