Members Daily Post: 18/10/19 (complete:8.15)

Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/101, 34p +42.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, nothing of interest on Friday.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/29,13p, +12.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

4.55 – Moores Novelty (micro class) ES+ G3 7/4 S3A

 

Fakenham

None

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TTP Chase Micros

3.15 Uttox – Captain Drake (any odds) 14 H1 I3 7/2

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers 

C Longsdon (12/1<)

4.05 Fake – Treakle Tart 9/2

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

3.15 Uttox – Royal Claret (25/1<) 33/1

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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There’s new ‘Micro Monday’ and ‘Tracker Tuesday’ posts, which should be visible on the home page, and they live in the appropriate tabs to the left hand side when logged in on desktop/tablet. 

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Some reflections… including Jonjo O’Neill…

It’s that tricky time of year for jumpers now, no excuses, but maybe a few more horses than normal will make you (me!) look silly – esp given fitness questions etc. One response could be to stick with horses that have had a run, (but that excludes plenty of winners) and/or have a bombproof/winning record when fresh (esp over fences) – which the Hobbs horse didn’t. Something for me to ponder… knowing when to play is always harder at this time of year, but that’s part of the challenge.

Price… in the end it comes down to odds which as we know is subjective – weighing up the risks , pros, cons, unknowns etc against the perceived chance to my/your eyes. I’m happy, generally, with my assessment of the market leaders and when to take them on – plenty beaten in recent weeks, but not landing on the right ones at times.

… with that said, onto Jonjo… who took both the staying chases on the day, and both with drifters… 9/2>10/1, and 10s>16s.

So, clearly, the market isn’t much of a guide on that front with his. As I touched on in the write up much has changed at the yard – JP only has 15 horses there, there’s a new yard sponsor, and many new owners – could it be that the handbrake has been let down a tad, ahem! 🙂  I use stats to help, but some seem increasingly pointless with his yard, especially Richie M – who can clearly ride when he wants- he improved on his 0/30 Wincanton (last 5 years) record today.

I’m happy enough at leaving both at their morning odds- 9/2 was short for his Carlisle winner as you were educated guessing as to fitness – you’ll save more long term with that type, at this time of year. But he was unexposed over fences, bolted up when last seen, and his form stacked up well. (races had produced winners) 10s would have allowed a chance to be taken, arguably.

10s/11s for Terry The Fish is tricky – a painful one as I tipped him LTO, where he was supported. When I realised he wasn’t going backwards down the back on the final circuit my heart sank a tad. My failure in analysis was pondering at a deeper level for why he ran so poorly LTO – having watched it again, and with Richie Ms post race interview in my mind (he’s slow!),  it’s apparent that he simply couldn’t hold his position in that MR chase over 2m6f, on decent ground, a speedy enough track, and a deeper race (more oppo in the 120s) – and they didn’t half trap along to the eye. He couldn’t hold his position, but Richie got him home in his own time. The fact he returned 19 days later here indicated there wasn’t a problem. I’ve been blinkered in thinking it was the lack of blinkers/CP that may have been a reason for that run – rather than the fact he may have needed it/wasn’t sharp, and the race happened too quick. He was up 4f here, against slower horses. He was able to hold his position, jump, and stayed on well. His hurdles form suggested he’d relish 25f over fences. I’d have been thoroughly unimpressed with myself had I left him at 16s – but you have to ask why a horse ran poorly LTO, and see if there were valid reasons – horses being taken out of their comfort zone is one of main reasons. Both were unexposed over fences.

The purpose of these reflections isn’t to wallow in self pity, but I like to reflect, with an eye to the future- if nothing else it will sharpen my mind over time, it’s the only way to improve, and if it helps you find some winners / avoid losers, and offers something of interest to read, even better 🙂

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. After today’s results, I think I will be avoiding Sue Smith’s runners for the time being even at her favourite hunting grounds. I realise that the same reasoning might apply as that which Josh so eloquently gave in defence of Phil Kirby on Wednesday but she is now 0/14 ( 1 placed) to date this month and 34 runners since her last winner.
    So, caveat pignor – I think that might be the Latin for “let the punter beware”!

    1. Yep, generally wise. Plenty of hers have been running as if needing the run etc. And haven’t won first time out. I’ll await Adams notes from Carlisle today, which will be on his blog, but he tweeted suggesting more so than normal looked unfit, generally. Which is always useful to know. Maybe more yards than normal are behind for whatever reason.
      Maybe no coincidence Tim Easterbys hard fit flat horses won their hurdle race… A nice 750/1 double. Alas I wasn’t on! Martin W was close mind.

      Kirby did have a running on second that went close enough.

      And Brian Ellison’s jumpers appear to be ready/he’s hitting some decent form. As is Russell.

  2. There is a trainer who is fast becoming the Karl Burke of Newcastle,Ben Haslam

    2016-0/20 2017-6/29 2018-6/59 2019-15/64

    Concentrating on his 3yo and 4yo runners.
    Andrew Mullen is a big plus when up
    Has the one that fits tomorrow
    Epeius 7.05 8/1

    Hopefully his stats will continue and be another profitable angle to exploit this winter

    1. A trainer I have never considered before and I will take a look.

      According to my figures:

      Karl Burke at Southwell is + 45.25 on 2019.

      Karl Burke at Newcastle since April, with a gap in meetings in the summer, is +10.25 in 2019. He has a runner today – 6.35 Dancing Leopard.

      My Nap of the days picks which have been going for a few months now are + 18.65 points.

      Where is the application form for ‘site tipster’????

      I tipped up Sands Of Mali each way for the sprint on Saturday at Ascot earlier in the week at 20/1 each way. He is still 14/1 and the rain keeps coming!

      A nice easy winner from Lambourn yesterday, albeit only 11/4.

      1. Two positives from Lambourn:

        3.15 Utt, Diablo De Rouhet, 7/2 on the drift though.

        4.55 Utt, Timcoda each way, positive at 6/1.

  3. Fakenham
    1:55 ballyellis
    3:00 angel of Harlem

    Uttoxeter
    4:20 Donatello mail

    Dundalk
    5:15 carried

    Wolverhampton
    7:55 Calder Prince

  4. Fakenham.
    2-25. Smart Getaway 11-2, first time cheekpieces for handicap debut so could be some improvement to come.
    3-00. Angel Of Harlem 7-4, worthy favourite ticks every box.
    4-05. Touch kick 3-1, looks the best handicapped in a tight contest.
    Uttoxeter.
    3-15. Westend Story 3-1 is short enough but could take this, Royal Claret 33-1 might be worth a small bet on chase debut.
    3-50. Culture De Sivola 14-1, looks good ew value gets her optimum conditions and goes well after a break (nap)

    1. insomnia costing me money still wide awake so had a look at Newcastle.
      Lucky 15 EW 10p
      Briardale @Guaranteed Price (18/1) 5:00 Newcastle
      Deeds Not Words @Guaranteed Price (66/1) 5:35 Newcastle
      Oriental Lilly @Guaranteed Price (14/1) 7:05 Newcastle
      Tobeeornottobee @Guaranteed Price (18/1) 8:05 Newcastle

      i do like the look of Briardale and have had a couple of quid ew

    2. gives your confidence a boost when a part of a pro tipsters write up for Culture de sivola is “gets ideal Going, trip is optimum and has run well and won fresh off similar breaks. ” 🙂

  5. what the hell thought i might as well look at Wolves as well luckily only 1 looks worthy of a bet,
    6-25. Watchable 7-1, if past races are anything to go by will hold on up front or not quite make it home just about big enough for an ew punt.
    one i will mention but am still racking my brains over is Calder Prince 25-1 in the 7-55 has won a class 3 at Wolves in the past but now rated 91 on the aw and hasn’t been doing that well on turf in lower grades off a much lower mark, might be worth a bit of shrapnel.

  6. I am having a pop at Pioneering 5.00 N.
    placed 3 days ago at Muss C4 1m was mentioned here about R Fell running within 8 days I think. Only ever ran at Newcastle twice LTO was 23rd Oct last year finished 6/10 C5 1m OR74, runs of 69 today and 1m 2f. 10/1 at present.

    Mike

  7. 4.05 Fakenham…

    I’ve had some beer money on Treakle Tart, who was 7/2 gen when I looked last night around 6 (and most around 4s/6s, didn’t seem much value given questions for others, inc fitness), and she was 4s/9/2 this morning, which may have been about right –
    But i’ve no idea how she’s 7/1 in this line up after LTO! Unless it’s an indication she’s lost a leg in transit, I find that very odd – were she that this morning etc I may have had a decision to make…

    Her RPR LTO of 145 suggests this mark could be within range, and she’s still open to improvement – that form has been franked, the second bolting up NTO, front two miles clear, Ballymallin has also won since.

    There’s a chance she gets a freebie on the front end also.
    Now, something could be better handicapped – prob Nicholl’s runner, but he’s now short. Maybe the track will be too tight for her, but that’s an unknown.

    Anyway, I think 7s is rather insulting, and is worth some minor support – obv such a drift raises some alarms, but she doesn’t know what price she is! 🙂

    Josh

    1. My pick in that Josh was Hepijue last night when i went through it
      Been on the go, in form over fences and 2 wins here so surely should be in the mix,
      But not had a bet, trying to stop wasting money when i dont have a solid pick in a tight race like this

      1. yep, well it was a tight race to my eyes when I looked, and i agree – but 7s is just silly for her. She’ll no doubt now be held up and never travelling haha –
        I was happy to leave him given he’s a 30+ raced chaser on a career high mark – i think he’s a ‘summer jumper’ arguably and Treackle has more class than him, and some others may also/have more in hand. I didn’t think he was overpriced anyway but he does like it around here.
        I was leaving it, but I can’t help having a small nibble at 7s, that price has left me perplexed, but maybe i’ll find out why soon enough!
        Josh

        1. Was a tough race last time out and pushed all the way to the line, is that their angle for thinking might have an off day today do you think??
          Calypso Collonges was the other one id be worried about if did have a bet, like that run at Uttoxeter staying on really well and then behind a good one the next race but not backing anything FTO now impossible to judge as you’v said in your peice at the top

      2. I’ve been tempted into a bet on Hepijeu based on the trainer/jockey partnership. Edmunds and Gethings are 10/15, 13p for a 52pt profit at Fakenham in the last 5 years and they make a 6 hour round trip just to run this one

        1. Best of luck, I won’t be putting you off him, or any others really – its a tight looking race which is one of reasons I initially left it at earlier odds- they have teamed up 4 times over fences, 3 of those with this horse- albeit one of his wins was lucky due to last fence faller – but his course form is solid and he was in great form over fences when last seen – he’s fit, consistent and he handles the track – not impossible Treackle doesn’t run race, and Nicholls/Murphy horses need it etc etc , it is an open race for sure.

  8. Good job she wasn’t 7s this morning, correct judgement at morning odds as price being too short. A lesson to prob not bother looking thereafter and take it on the chin when odd one goes in!
    She has never travelled a yard there.. Probs combo of the weight, tight track and hard race LTO.

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