Members Daily Post: 17/10/19 (complete:10.28)

Test tips x1, Main Tip x2, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/101, 34p +42.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

#1 3.55 Winc – BARBROOK STAR – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365) 6/1 (WH/BV) 11/2 (SB/Unib) UP 5/1 – well he was just poor there, Johnson was stood down but can’t use that as an excuse, he was under the pump a long way out – Terry The Fish winning, tipped LTO, rubs salt in the wound, 12s>16s. One of those, that run was just too poor, he was going backwards after 6 out, but alas – he did have a 3 mile+ chase in him, and it was today. Frustrating. 

as of 08.18.

#2 1.45 Carl – JONNIESOFA – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/BV) 10/1 (WH/UniB)

Non Runner – ground not soft enough for connections. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/29,13p, +12.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#3 3.25 Carl – VOCALISER – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP 8/1, a bit too fresh sadly, and did too much/inc trying to keep tabs on a strong pace- just a poor run, beat before fitness a question imo. Never Up the one to take from that on his next start, odds allowing. In fairness he stayed up with the pace for a long way, fading after second last, and he won second time up last season. 

that’s all for today, as of 09.38, write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Brighton

1.25 – Bahamian Sunrise (3yo+,micro class) I3 

2.30 – Thechildrenstrust (3yo+) w2 I1 G3 6/1 S6 

3.35 –

Creative Talent (m age)

Rivas Rob Roy (3yo+,m class and age)

Ahfad (3yo+)

Luxford (3yo+)

Capricorn Prince (3yo+)

4.10 –

Hedging (m class) w1 H1 I3 7/2 

Good Luck Charm (3yo+) H3

Avorisk Et Perils (3yo+,m TJC)

Soaring Spirits (3yo+)

Lady Morpheus (3yo+,m runs)

Tarrzan (3yo+,m class and age)

4.40 –

Good Luck Fox (3yo+)

Major Pusey (3yo+) G3

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JUMPS

Carlisle

1.45 – Lough Derg Farmer (m TJC) H3 I1 8/1 UP

3.25 –

Never Up (m TJC) 11/1

Zolfo (HcCh) w2 H3 I1 14/1  UP

 

Wincanton

3.20 – Highly Prized (HcH) 30 w1 H3 G3 6/1 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.25 –

Heavey (m dist) w2 H3 I1  5/1  3rd

Dollnamix (HcH) 30 G1 4/1 

Harbour Force (m dist) H3 G3 20/1 S1 UP

 

Bonus Irish

Tramore

2.00 – Minx Tiara (HcH) 12/1

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NEW TTP Chase Micros

Note: as per the new TTP pack which can be found in the welcome link below near the bottom of the post. With any luck in time they may be profitable to back systematically, but we shall see what they do in live play. I’ll add the ratings pointers for information purposes, to help with your own analysis for those of you who use the stats content as a starting point…

1.45 Carl – Lough Derg Farmer (any odds)  H3 I1 8/1 UP

3.25 Carl – Never Up (any odd) 11/1 UP (ran well to two out) 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle (14/1<)

3.20 Winc – Highly Prized 6/1

4.25 Winc – Dollnamix 4/1 UP

Twister

3.20 Winc – Grey Diamond (m4/m3, 11/2<) 8/1 2nd

12.45 Carl – Jelski (m2, 16/1< guide) 15/8 2nd

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Chase Angles 2019/20 

12.15 Carl – Smiths Cross  12/1 UP (jumped left, ran ok)

3.25 Carl – Sporting Press (11/1<) 11/4 UP

3.55 Winc – Bramble Brook 15/2 2nd

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

IMPORTANT: 

The website will be down for a couple of hours Thursday evening, from 7pm onwards. I’m adding some new software in the back end relating to membership/payments etc – it shouldn’t affect current members/access etc, and will hopefully be sorted by 9pm or so. 

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On Thursday i’ll be catching up with the content I haven’t added this week…Micro Monday, Tracker Tuesday, Trends Thursday (which may have Saturday off given it’s Champions Day, only 5 runnings of the big handicap) 

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Tips write ups…

3.55 Winc – Barbrook Star

A winner for us two starts back over CD where the 25f, CP, and a lesser race/holes in oppo, seemed to do the trick. He’s only had 5 chase runs and I get the impression there could be plenty more to come from him this season – I’ve no doubt that he will be the best of these this ‘winter’ season, and I hope he may show that today. Were he coming into this on the back of a run, he’d have been put in at 3s I suspect, and as such 6s was decent – especially as the yard are back to their best it seems, having had health issues for much of 2018/early 2019 it seemed. This horse ran well on return last season over hurdles, over too short a trip, outpaced, stayed on. The yard form, combined with the fact the CP are retained, and they return to this CD with Dicky on, has led me to conclude he will be fit. In any case, in the context of this race/the oppo, 6s allowed the play.

Softer may be ideal but he’s won/run well on this sort of ground before and I expect Dicky to ride him up there/track the pace. Some of his chase form reads well from last year and I think there could be valid excuses for the odd run. I think he’s the most interesting in here today, and he’s the one I wanted to be with at the prices.

Flying Verse is inconsistent and a ‘summer jumper’ I suspect, also to prove RH, but he’s fit, in form, and escaped a penalty for LTO- so, a clear danger.

The other two unexposed ones – Forgot To Ask and Stockburn- they just have a few too many questions for me and I didn’t think were overpriced when looking – both on the drift since.

Bramble Brook is interesting to a point – he’s fit and may run his race. I’ve some concerns over stamina as he has won over 26f but it was a 3 runner race/make all/dictate. There’s also a class question, 0/12,1p in handicap chases C4, 6k+ . With 25 chase runs, he can beat me- but the Fav may run a shocker, and mine may not be fit/needs it – and if those two don’t run their race it does become rather open.

Terry The Fish – I tipped him LTO when he ran a shocker. It was too poor to support today, especially as they retain the CP, with his best runs coming in blinkers – I may wait for those to return, as he should have a 3m chase in him. He may run well today but he lost his place very early LTO, having been backed, and never looked interested.

The rest can beat me.

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1.45 Carl – Jonniesofa  –

A bit of a punt but at 11s I couldn’t resist and there’s plenty of method to my madness. I’ve no doubt he’s the classiest horse in this race, if retaining his ability. He won a G2 Novice Hurdle at Haydock in his younger days, beating Vintage Clouds, Duke Des Champs etc. He’s only run x3 since, one of those two starts ago, at this course, winning a beginners chase after 587 days off, beating Nuts Well and Happy Diva – solid form.

The question is well-being. Adam Norman visited the yard for his excellent blog and these were the notes on this horse…

Obviously very fragile and if he stays sound we’ll probably only look to run him three times. Was fit to run last year but started coughing at the wrong time. He’ll run in a 0-135 or 140 handicap and how he gets on there will tell us how high we can shoot with him. His owner has ambitious plans but he’ll only run when everything’s perfect.

Reading that makes me think he will be as fit as they can get him here, knowing that they may not have many bullets to fire with him. Maybe he will need it, but the fact he runs suggests they’re happy. He usually races prominently, and has jumped well in his two chases. And he’s clearly been injury free for a while. This yard is one to watch as they had illness for much of last season etc. The market may well guide, especially if a massive drift – and I think Adam is track side today and i had a brief chat with him about this one- no doubt he’ll send me a message saying he’s a fat as a pig! But they clearly can ready him at home. Double figure odds has lured me in.

The dangers…well they are obvious – Arthurs Gift is the correct fav, but he has yet to win fresh – clearly that probably won’t be a problem from this yard – the selection, IF fit, could just be a better handicapped horse though, and will have track position. But if he doesn’t take it, I suspect this one will. I think the ground will be fine – it could be he doesn’t want a proper bog anyway.

I can take on Looksnowtlikebrian – i’d rather back AG at 9/4 I think, esp as dicky isn’t on, the horse is usually ridden cold, and he can hit a fence. You’d think he’s here to run his race though – were he 6s/7s he’d have been more interesting. He needs to step forward again, and i’d suggest Dicky, esp on this horse, is at least 7lb better rider than the promising Charlie Price, so it’s not as easy as just saying he’s 7lb off etc etc. They claim 7lb for a reason, and it’s his first ride around here.

I’d have it between those three. There is a Sue Smith contender- the yard are not firing just yet and he’s yet to place fresh, so guessing as to fitness. He is a course winner though and not impossible they’ve got him ready, however his only chase win was fortunate, with a faller who was coming to challenge.

Pop Rockstar is a nice chaser in the making, one to track- but I can’t take 9/2 for a Jonjo horse on it’s first start – can anyone read that yard! Albeit they generally seem in decent form, and with a plethora of new owners/yard sponsor, he needs winners to keep everyone happy. I’m not sure ‘needing winners’ was the priority for JPs horses (who now only has 15 in the yard), esp since McCoy retired. In any case, were he fit he’d be a danger, but guessing again.

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3.25 Carl – Vocaliser –

This 7YO should be hacking up at some point this season over 16/17f, having won over fences off 116, now down to 103 after a torrid enough time last season- a combination of running in the wrong conditions/trip/LH (bar Sandown where he ran a cracker, in a decent enough race, in Jan- stamina ebbed over last two but stayed in there pitching) and the yard being quiet enough (from memory). Some of his chase form reads quite well, and he’s a lovely jumper at his best- one who travels well just off the pace usually – and Jack likes to ride them up there if he can. I’m hoping he won’t be far away here.

This horse has won on seasonal reappearance before, over fences at Leic in Dec 2017, so they can clearly ready him if they wish. The fact the trainer sends him 217 miles up here, and Jack has come with him for the one ride on the card (0/2,1p at track) (Dickin has two at Wincanton also) makes me think he must be ready. An odd approach to take if he needs the run I thought, but in any case at 10s i’ll roll the dice. The horse is 0/17, 3p Left Handed in his career, making me think they’ve deliberately tried to find an opening RH, on soft-ish ground. He’s 4/10,6p RH over fences. Surely they have him ready.  Dickin is 2/3,2p since mid May with horses sent off 10/1 or shorter from what I can see. He’s had an awful lot of runners in that time seemingly with little chance, 20/1+ . So, hopefully the market support is significant. I thought 16f around here would be ideal for him.

In any case I thought he looked most interesting at the prices.

I was happy to leave all the other for various reasons at the prices.

Never Up is interesting but his best recent chase form has been over 20f on Heavy and he could well need this. If he’s nibbled at I may be concerned but this could happen too quick.

Pace wise… I expect Jack to be prominent and he should be in a no excuses position. Over this sort of trip they usually race him up there, having been more patient over 20f, prob in hope of getting him home. Hopefully Jack has made the long trip from Newmarket for good reason. We shall see!

All three of mine today should race ‘up there’, either leading or tracking the pace- no hold up horses (in theory!), so fingers crossed at least one of them can get the job done.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. Be good to see what ppl make of the 1.45 Carlisle 2moz, not found it easy but I thought Lough Derg Farmer the most interesting to my eyes, seen you’v mentioned it above in the Micro aswel Josh. Looksnowtlikebrian a proper horse and won here FTO last year, claimer a niggle for me tho from Dicky Johnson being on. Arthur’s gift also could improve again, usually get too carried away and would of backed Lough Derg but think I’m just guna leave a bet in this I wouldn’t be backing with huge confidence

  2. Carlisle
    1:45 Arthur’s gift

    Tramore
    2:35 dasmhyos

    Wincanton
    3:20 grey diamond

    Chelmsford
    8:00 gennaro

  3. just started going through today’s cards and straight away i’m hit by a bit of a quandary ,Carlisle 12-15. River Frost was a good enough hurdler to be entered in the Coral Cup off a mark of 145 but has been poor since going chasing finishing plum last on both occasions, has prime conditions today and will go off at a big price that will be tempting which beggars the question how much jumping improvement can they have got in him in 16 days schooling. worth a small punt?

      1. Nice spot – race fitness winning out there, as it did in div one – is very stiff there, if you’re not spot on, hard work. A nice top up to the beer fund! 🙂

  4. Don`t really like the 13:45 at Carlisle, so, have steered clear. Instead I have taken on the 15:55 at Wincanton
    BRAMBLE BROOK 1pt win 15/2 gen
    BARBROOK STAR 1pt win 6/1 gen

    BRAMBLE BROOK
    Mr Cobden on board, (who must have had his say on what he feels the horse should do), longer distance, slowly dropped down the weights and is now 1lb below his last winning weight, quite a few boxes ticked and if he is going to win one…Value at 15/2
    BARBROOK STAR
    Same sort of scenario as one above, Dickie on board for Mr Hobbs, he hasn`t got many miles on the clock and I have watched his previous races, could be anything and may rattle a couple of wins over the Autumn period, just value at 6/1, if you can get 7`s with 365, help yourself.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

    1. Think we have clicked ‘post’ at exactly the same time there haha – a good omen!! 🙂 All on the Hobbs/Johnson express!

  5. today’s horses of interest.
    Carlisle.
    2-55. Attention Seaker
    3-25. Never Up
    Brighton.
    1-25. Ocean Temptress
    2-30. Global Destination
    10p ew L15
    Wincanton.
    3-20. Highly Prized
    3-55. Sporting Boy
    4-25. Heavey
    5-25. Love The Leader
    10p ew L15

  6. Lambourn Trainers – Jamie Snowden has a good word for Legends Ryde, 4.00 Carlisle. It is only 11/4 at present though. Carlisle is a long way to go for a trainer based in Lambourn.

  7. TIP TOP
    Brighton
    1.25 Firenze Rosa 2/1
    4.10 Hedging 7/2
    Carlisle
    1.45 Looksnowtlikebrian 4/1
    3.25 Sporting Press 10/3

    Aruba
    Brighton
    1.25 Firenzie Rosa 2/1
    4.10 Hedging 7/2
    5.45 Wolverhampton Dawaam 11/8
    Colin

  8. Carl’ 1.45 Pop Rockstar……….. 10.0 NFH
    Brig’ 1.55 Bavardges…………… 7.0 NH
    Carl’ 2.20 Mega Double……….. 10.0 NFH
    Brig’ 3.05 Provacation…………. 10.0 NH

    Back at 4.00

    1. Chel’ 6.30 Zeimaam ……………….. 9.0 NH
      Wolv’ 7.15 Odyssey Girl ………….. 10.0 NH
      Wolv’ 7.45 Iron Mike ……………… 13.0 NFH

  9. I have to agree with Josh that the O`Niell yard are really hard to gauge, all year round and his lad is no different, will he won`t he be good on this one that one….

    1. Market suggests they didn’t really know either haha. Runs of both no surprise, just wish they were as big in the morning, would have been more likely to land on them. Maybe. Easy to say after mind. His Carlisle one was right to take on at 9/2, 10s maybe not so. Shame not softer as suspect mine would have had him. Well, I can assume!

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