Members Daily Post: 12/10/19 (complete:7am)

Tip x1, Section 2 (complete) , Sat trends

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/99, 34p +44.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.20 Chep – CAPTAIN CHAOS – 1 point win – 13/2 (gen)  UP 7/2 

as of 8am my time, 7am your time. Time for me to get ready and hit the races! I need coffee… 🙂 

Dan Skelton’s chaser’s have generally been ready to go (winning) on seasonal return this month so far, including a ‘nice type’ for the same owner on the card yesterday. This horse has won fresh previously, albeit in his novice hurdles days – however has rarely returned in such ideal conditions (all career wins in soft). I’m a tad on the fence as to whether he will be a1, and this is a funny price point, even in an 8 runner race- the other head scratcher is the fact they leave the blinkers off – he’s won without them before and it could be they think he doesn’t need them. Or i’m about to experience a laboured effort, with him winning on his next 1-3 starts. 

However, i’ll take the plunge. The Wetherby second is some of the best recent handicapping form in this, his mark looks fine, and he’s unexposed in handicap chases still. In that race he had Takingrisks (Scots National hero for us) , Wakanda and Crosspark (didn’t run a bad race last season really, Eider winner/Scots Nat place etc) who won four races between them after that. No harm in losing to Lake View Lad who ran such a fine race in the Ultima, PU in the National. The run at Newcastle before wasn’t bad either, staying on second, and neither was the Kim Muir effort. IF he’s ready, in this ground, and if he runs his race, I think he’d be the one to beat. He usually races prominently, so if he’s held up, i’ll know my fate early on. He definitely has races in him before Christmas. The market may well guide. 

The soft ground (could be more rain) is a question for the likes of Cloth Cap (a national horse in the making, and they need to get his mark up if good enough) and Relentless Dreamer, and indeed Drinks Interval – I like this mare, and can see the case, if she handles the going. That PU was on the back of a fall which can prob be ignored and she’s unexposed enough over fences. 

Ballyoptic is interesting but I can leave him at 11/2, given the races he’s run in, i’d like to think some sort of ‘national’ or staying race may be the target and off 152 I can leave him today, but if a1, he could run an almighty race. Royal Vacation is open to attack to younger legs and I thought this may be deep enough, and obv a fitness q for him also. I can leave Lil Rock and Cap Du Nord. 

 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/27,13p, +14.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None, i’ve run out of time for the 5.05 but the in-form Stewart has that covered 🙂 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

York

3.15 – Johnny Drama (all Hc’s) 4/1

3.50 – Get Knotted (3yo+) w1 I3 14/1 

 

Newmarket

None

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JUMPS

Chepstow

2.45 –

Crooks Peak (micro +class) 14,30  8/1 

Quoi De Neuf (m class) 6/1

4.30 – Zanza (m +class) 14.30 w1 H3 10/1 

 

Hexham

None.

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister

4.30 Chep – Ballyandy (m3/m4, 11/2<) 12/1 UP

3.05 Hex – Kerisper (m1) 9/2 

4.50 Hex – Took The Lot (m2, 16/1<guide) 5/1 

 

LTO Winning Trainers

1.55 Hex – Tokaramore (12/1< guide) 7/2 

5.50 Chep – The Bay Birch (10/1< guide) 8/1  WON 8/1>20/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

1.55 Hex – Dorking Cock (13/2<) 10/3 2nd 

5.05 Chep – TheBay Birch (10/1<) 8/1 DNQ – WON 8/1>20/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Saturday Trends READ HERE>>>

(two handicaps from Chepstow, and the ‘Ces’ from Newmarket) 

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Sat Trends

Newmarket : The Cesarewitch 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) T

  • Buildmeupbuttercup / Great White Shark / Stratum
  • Coeur De Lion / Who Dares Wins / Rainbow Dreamer
  • Mr Everest
  • Themaxwecan / Summer Moon / Rochester House
  • Not So Sleepy / Hermoso Mundo

 

Stats/Trends/Shortlist 

The 15/15 and 14/15 stats (inc not 0-2 places in handicaps) leaves 14/159, 35p in the last 15 years, leaving a working ‘shortlist’ of 10 (1/3 of the race) >>>

Timoshenko / Great White Shark T / Coeur De Lion T/ Mr Everest T / Stratum T / Great Tango / Who Dares Wins T / Carnwennan / Party Playboy / Nuits St Georges 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. For those who can get early prices again, here we go.
    We didn`t do too bad today did we, but, we shall see how things pan out tomorrow.
    15:20 Chepstow
    DRINKS INTERVAL 1pt win 8/1 gen
    ROYAL VACATION 1pt win 10/1 gen

    16:30 Chepstow
    BOLD PLAN 1pt win 8/1 gen
    THE KNOT IS TIED 1pt win 14/1 gen

    17:05 Chepstow
    DOITFORTHEVILLAGE 1pt win 8/1 365 sky 15/2 gen
    MARRACUDJA 1pt win 16/1 Coral

    Write ups in morning.

    1. Superb stuff yesterday Stewart, well done.
      One of my mates back in Suffolk is into his racing keeps tabs on the blog, following my tips and dabbling in the comments , esp your musings, every now and then. He bets 10s/20s/30s and sent me his betting slip yesterday – he was off to Newmarket and fancied one, and put that in a EW patent with your two winners (which he homed in on thanks to your write ups) and collected a cool £1500 or so from 25 outlay. So, he was happy 🙂 Lucky sod!
      best of luck today, as always.

    2. Thanks Josh and everyone else, as i keep saying profit is key, not the winners, although it is nice when what you put in the comments actually happens!? “Decimate the field” I think i said and Torpillo did just that, but, as he went off the boil quickly last season, maybe what was amiss last year has been sorted this, definitely not a class 2 Hcp horse…
      So, as is always the case I may fall flat on my face with this today, so, here goes..
      DRINKS INTERVAL
      Well, she has been written up all over the place now and I think me and a few others have honed in on that victory at Chepstow were she made all and won in a canter on pretty similar ground. There is a slight niggle that she may not get 2m 7f, but, with Puppy Power in the plate, he will be experienced to know how much is left in the tank and that is also built into the value price.
      ROYAL VACATION
      I was as surprised as any to see RV left in at the declaration stage yesterday, maybe DI is going to set this up for her stable mate, but, it did seem odd, now, RV is a battler he knows his way round in this going and if Mr O`Neill jnr is going to learn a few things about jumping the bigger obstacles, then this is the beast to do it on, he will handle the going, track and if he`s alongside DI at 4 out I believe it will be a fight to the line with the two Tizzard runners! (Just hope Bryony doesn`t come and spoil the party, but, the price I felt was too short on Lil Rockerfellar).
      BOLD PLAN
      I was ooohing and aahing with this one.I had him in at 5/1 favourite, so, the 7/8 to 1 on offer is just value. Evan Williams knows how to win this race at this time of year was my thinking behind him being favourite in my book, he is lightly raced and is a bit of an unknown, could be anything type. He could do what Torpillo did yesterday, or he could fade out the back of the tv, but, you should get a run for your money either way, the win was at Taunton where he did look a little green, then went on to finish second in atrocious conditions at Uttoxeter in the hcp hdle on the Saturday following the festival. More to come i feel and like i said the 8/1 is value.
      THE KNOT IS TIED
      I tried to find value with something else and maybe I have overstepped my mark with getting a few winners yesterday, but, normally put a line through a few first, so, COOLANLY went as I feel the value has gone, BALLYANDY i feel is being targetted for later in the season, then i got to this one…Trainer Neil King has said he gave Bryony a couple of wrong instructions on this one during last season, he doesn`t really find much once he hits the front, so, expect this to be different, may be, that the market will dictate the fortunes of this one, but, i wanted a play at 14/1.
      DOITFORTHEVILLAGE
      Now he is a favourite of mine and ran really well over the National fences lto to make me have a second look at his form here,he likes this course and has bags of experience with Mr Brennan on board also, the ground will not phase him as it will some of the others and Paddy will know to not push the gas too early when they turn in, value at 8/1. I had him in around the 5/6 to 1 mark.
      MARRACUDJA
      The Skeltons as Josh has said have a really good record with their horses at this time of year, well, all year round actually, they take a leaf out of the old Martin Pipe book which is start them early in the season and if you throw enough darts you`ll be ahead of the rest of trainers in winners by the time the season really gets going! It works really well for them and they are a really professional outfit from the trainer / stable staff down to Jimmy the yard dog..anyway back the horse..The Skeltons have a habit of putting horses over different trips to see how they perform and Marracudja is no exception after being tried at 2m up to 2m 3 1/2f, they must believe that is his ceiling. Just thought after what they do with horses that have been with other trainers this looks a tailor made race that they could win and 14/1 was over priced.

      As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

      1. I like Cloth Cap for the Welsh National and so will be looking for a solid run here but not to win today.

      2. i wasn’t that worried about Lil rockerfeller Stewart, really really like the horse obviously stays well. But last season having a backed him a few times could see wasn’t jumping right, think they sent back to hurdles in the end. Suppose tho saying that there’s no one better than Bryony to put confidence into jumping if they’v been working on it aswel

      1. always mad when top rated wins a race that easily. Straight after the race just a quick look back through form and the last time he ran over 3M he won in heavy ground, so no probs with conditions today.
        And tongue tie back on for this today, which is a dead giveaway that the horse isn’t just here for a run and there’s obvious intent for him to go well
        I didn’t spend enough time on that race
        Good job I have a few lagers in the fridge after today’s racing

    1. Went through the 3.20 last night, fairly quickly to be fair and backed ended up landing on Drinks Interval, thought Josh may have gone for it aswel but gives it a decent mention
      Might have to go in again

      1. Yea I wont put you off her and I suspect she’s a1 and here to run her race given win at meeting last year etc. Some niggles as to depth of her form, her form when last seen and whether she wants testing ground. But can see scenario where she keeps going when others are not etc. She is one of the least exposed in this.

  2. York
    3:15 forest ranger
    3:50 Louis de Palma

    Newmarket
    4:10 Coeur Dr lion

    Chepstow
    4:30 remastered

    Wolverhampton
    6:30 Sharrabang

  3. My Nap of the day is……4.30 Chepstow, Man Of Plenty, 1 point each way at 50/1 now. Should stay in the ground and run on if he is on a going day. Value pick at the price.

    Also double it up with Coeur De Lion who I put up yesterday in The Ces.

    Good luck.

  4. Change of strategy for my tips from today onwards. Won’t look a great deal different in terms of modus operandum in that the minimum odds restriction will still apply, however there will be more bets. Having said that the unexposed novices that I started posting at the beginning of this year remain unchanged Flat and jumps). Is too bad I didn’t start this yesterday as I was 2 from 4 over jumps and +28.12 profit, but I had set my stall out for the official start of the jumps for the new bets, which is of course today. 🙁

  5. H2.30 Rivabodiva 8/1 to win
    C2.45 Crooks Peak 6/1 to win & Louis Vac Pouch in R/F 16/1
    Y5.00 Aircraft Carrier 9/1

  6. Hex’ 1.55 Ain’t My Fault……… 10.0 NFH
    Chep’ 2.45 Howling Milan……. 10.0 NFH
    N/m 2.55 Military March……. 9.0 NH
    Hex’ 3.05 Square Viviani…….. 9.0 NFH
    Lim’ 3.10 Still Standing………. 10.0 NH
    York 3.15 Coolagh Forest…….. 8.0 NFH
    Hex’ 4.50 Grumpy McGrumpface 9.0 NH
    York 5.00 Manzil……………….. 13.0 NFH

    Back at 4.30 with Wolves.

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