Members Daily Post: 11/10/19 (complete)

Ces Pointers / Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/99, 34p +44.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None – there’s a Veterans Chase at Chepstow but bar the final at Sandown, i’ve vowed to leave those alone. And a 5 runners mares chase I’ll leave having had a quick look. 

Thursday was a timely reminder that it’s that tricky time of year for ‘educated guessing’ as to fitness, for those returning after breaks. You can decide just not to play I suppose if a bit too much guesswork, but in the end it comes down to price, which is subjective as we know. Vaughan’s horse has hacked up in truth, despite the carnage in behind – at 11/2 or so given the horse hadn’t won fresh (albeit he ‘ran on’ last year on return) and Vaughan’s stats at the track (albeit only 6 chase runners, all unplaced), as well as fact he had to prove stamina, I was happy to leave. He’s made me look silly there but the type I should be pondering further if a bigger price- another unexposed one – which I keep banging on about, to drill it into my own head if nothing else! He’s cruised around there and has clearly grown/matured/improved for the trip also. Vaughan can ready them, just a case of trying to ‘guess’ which ones are fit.  

Teaser would have come an honourable second I suspect, still cruising when falling. Kings Monarch was just poor, but the SP well and truly beaten, which is all I can cling to! He looked fit, and was cooked before that would have been a question, so no excuse there. Just not good enough on the day. 

Of note, as a learning point – It does make sense that if the horse appears to want decent ground (which his profile to date would suggest) connections would want them ready to roll early on at this time of year, assuming it goes ‘winter soft’ at some point. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/27,13p, +14.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

York

4.20 – Jawwaal (3yo+) G3 10/1 

 

Newmarket 

None

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JUMPS

Chepstow

3.55 – On Tour (micro class) H3 7/1 

4.30 – Caswell Bay (m class) w1 11/1 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister

2.45 Chep – Sir Valentine (m2, 16/1< guide)  9/1 

4.30 Chep – Torpillo (m4, 11/2<) 8/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Saturday Trends READ HERE>>>

(two handicaps from Chepstow, and the ‘Ces’ from Newmarket) 

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NOTE: I fly to Prague this afternoon to take in the Velka, returning on Wed. Saturday’s post is likely to follow Sat morning, albeit I may get some done at the airport. As always I’ll try and keep disruption to a minimum, you won’t notice much difference, and as a min I plan to look at any staying chases. 

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Sat Trends

Newmarket : The Cesarewitch 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) T

  • Buildmeupbuttercup / Great White Shark / Stratum
  • Coeur De Lion / Who Dares Wins / Rainbow Dreamer
  • Mr Everest
  • Themaxwecan / Summer Moon / Rochester House
  • Not So Sleepy / Hermoso Mundo

 

Stats/Trends/Shortlist 

The 15/15 and 14/15 stats (inc not 0-2 places in handicaps) leaves 14/159, 35p in the last 15 years, leaving a working ‘shortlist’ of 10 (1/3 of the race) >>>

Timoshenko / Great White Shark T / Coeur De Lion T/ Mr Everest T / Stratum T / Great Tango / Who Dares Wins T / Carnwennan / Party Playboy / Nuits St Georges 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Evening,

    Again for those who can get on here are the early birds, write ups to follow.
    15:55 Chepstow
    JOE FARRELL 1pt win @10/ 1 Sky 9/1 gen
    VIEUX LION ROUGE 1pt win @12/1 365 bet 10/1 gen

    16:30 Chepstow
    PRAECEPS 1pt win @8/1 gen
    TORPILLO 1pt win @8/1 gen

    1. Yes Stewart was just about to come on here and talk about that veterans chase, the Jumps are back !!!!!!

      Eyes draw straight away to Vieux lion Rouge as well so that’s a good sign, it’s in my head how well I thought he ran FTO at Aintree last year, I don’t really know what’s happened in the races after that, maybe wants ground a bit softer, but travelled strong for 90% of the race at Chepstow last time so hopefully drop in trip will help. Weather forecast says heavy rain aswel

    2. JOE FARRELL
      Out of all of these he has the least mileage on the clock, as far as running in chases goes, that I think will make all the difference this season for him , (only 15 chase races compared to some of these that have at least 35-40 on the clock). It will come down to a war of attrition today and I noticed that JF stays forever, his one and only run at Chepstow was behind Elegant Escape and Mias Storm, from what i could see J Moore hit the gas too early in the straight, (something a lot of jockeys do at Chepstow and he was also a little green over the bigger obstacles).
      VIEUX LION ROUGE
      This is all down to jockeyship and ground I feel, VLR needs a strong gallop and also needs to be up with the pace, if he has both today I feel he will go well as he is one of the only other ones who hasn`t got as much mileage on the clock as the others. I think the going and up and down undulations will play into VLR`s hands and he was in front at the 17th in last years Welsh National when something went amiss, hopefully with just one more fence this time he will be leading after that!!

      I have gone back into the hurdle foray also after steering clear of it…I do love a good hurdle run at a furious pace and I think we will have that here as the better class animals now come to the fore.

      PRAECEPS
      I believe he likes these small runner fields, the hurly burly of the big fields may be just beyond him (my classification for a big field is 12 and above over hurdles and Jumps), all of his victories have been under 12 runners he ran well at Cheltenham in March, but, once all the horses started bumping into one another he sort of gave up..the fighting spirit will probably come to him, as he`s only a baby in jumps terms, but, with a smaller field and a softer surface he may surprise at what i feel is value odds.
      TORPILLO
      I think he looked top class last season early on and trounced a decent novice Hurdle field on his debut at Sandown, but, went a bit backward in the second half of the season, if he`s progressed this year he will decimate this lot, we shall see and at 9/1 is value!

      As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

      1. Best of luck gents, i’ve had a quick look and it looks a competitive, open race. Hopefully one of your two bolts up.

        As an aside for future reference I did just have a flick through some trainer stats for ‘Vets chases’ (10yo+ in HRB) since the start of 2015, when I think the series came alive – certainly more races anyway…

        Pipe is the leading trainer… 7/25, 10p, +18 (albeit Rathlin Rose/Soll resp for 5 of those wins) but they are races he appears to target.

        best of luck.

  2. rain forecast on and off all night and tomorrow at York so did a quick runthrough as if going was soft.
    2-00. Stone Soldier won in soft lto beating Pop Dancer 8.5l but the latter is 7lb better off and the drop back to 5f should suit him , maybe worth dutching them.
    2-40. Alemaratayoum up 7lb for lto win in heavy but 5lb claimer helps should have every chance if repeating that run.
    3-50. was going to give this a miss but it is worth noting that Euro Implosion has won twice in soft ground albeit in lower class races, highly tried in a class 2 lto where the good/firm ground was obviously not to his liking, does run from 2lb out of the handicap.
    4-20. left me with a short list of 3, Fantasy Keeper, Foolaad and Dark Defender
    5-30. same again short list of 3, Flying Pursuit, Sparlealot and Captain Jameson
    knowing my luck with guessing the going it will probably stop raining and a strong drying wind spring up 🙂

  3. quick look at the other cards tomorrow and thought these were of interest.
    Chepstow
    3-20. Truckers lodge
    3-55. Vieux lion rouge
    4-30. Beat the judge
    5-00. Still Believing
    Newmarket.
    2-25. Rose of kildare
    3-00. Limato
    3-35. Powerful breeze
    4-10. Skymax
    5-20. Sweet promise/Exhort

  4. Morning Josh
    Enjoy Prague, the Velka will be a real experience, good old rustic course but nice, the food choices will blow your mind. GB bred won it when I went so hopefully some of the same, any way good luck
    Did you look at possibly going to the England game? Not sure which ground they are at or where it is from the Old Town Square
    Harry

    1. Thanks Harry – nope not going to End match, will find a pub for that no doubt! Possibly going to the Ice Hockey on Tuesday evening which would be a new experience.
      I’ll try my best to have a good time! 🙂
      Josh

      1. Prague is always good, Beer and Food top notch. Good idea to swerve the football as there is zero tolerance at these games from the home police and the Slavia Prague boys like to kick off with England supporters.

        Couer De Lion for the Ces, get on at 28/1. He will stay on the ground and the trainer is good at these sort of races.

        1. hope your right about Couer De Lion Martin iv’e had a couple of quid on myself @28-1 (bv) as short as 16-1 with Sky

  5. Two from Lambourn – each way.

    2.10 Chepstow, Some Day Soon (Jamie Snowden).

    2.25 Newmarket, Vividly (Charlie Hills).

  6. No tips from me this afternoon but will changing some of my action from tomorrow to coincide with the official jumps starting. The general theme will remain the same but some new bets will appear.

    Back at 4.30.

  7. I’ve not had to good a start for Oct but a bit belated selection for today.
    5.20 N Exhort
    4.20 Y Duke of Fireneze
    5.30 N Flying Pursuit
    8.30 Nc Newmarket Warrior

    Mike

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