Members Daily Post: 10/10/19 (complete:9.42)

write ups, test tip x1, Main tip x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/99, 34p +44.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.45 Worc – KINGS MONARCH – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) UP 5/2 > well supported, as was the winner, the only two for money really, he hasn’t run that well – he got outpaced/then crowded out on the bend, but in truth it was rather laboured after that, no excuse. Maybe he’s one for NTO but clearly better was expected ad he looked very fit to my dodgy eyes, pre race. BallyM has outfought the second, and probably outstayed him- a decent ride – ironically of course it’s mine that was outpaced. I thought he’d want further/softer to get back into winners’ enclosure but his mark was dropping, and that man Big Nige again. Beating SP the only minor comfort again  

that’s all for main chase tips, as of 08.26, write up below..

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/27,13p, +14.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

3.30 Exet – TEASER – 1 point win 9/2 (bet365/SkyB/BetfS/PP/UniB) Fell 4/1… a dramatic race, which in truth I don’t think has affected the result – the winner for Vaughan has bolted up, I suspect Teaser would have chased him home albeit was still cruising when coming down – it’s that tricky time of year on the fitness front , trying to judge whether they will be ready/and if price allows play – due to lack of win fresh / Vaughan’s stats here, I’ve left him at 11/2 when looking but he was clearly ready – unless track side, guessing a bit with the yard whether they will be – but that horse is worth tracking as had travelled/jumped so well and he would have won well anyway I suspect. But, yet again, an unexposed/lightly raced chaser doing the business, if further evidence was needed that ‘generally’ that’s the type to focus on. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.37…write ups…

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Kings Monarch – I started looking at these races late yesterday afternoon and I finished thinking I’d be backing Oathkeeper at 4s. After a coffee and some further cogitation i’ve changed my mind to the selection, and we shall see if i’ve got that right. 

KM is a micro qualifier below, he’s younger, open to further progress, has won over fences, his form is better, and is dropping in class from LTO (0-140 to a 0-125) and that swung it! The chase angle below has a 36% SR in classes 1-3. You don’t usually have to worry about fitness with this yard if they want them fit, and while the horse has no record fresh as such, the stats were compelling enough – trainer/jockey are 10/37, 15p with handicap chasers 60+ days in the last 5 years, +40… 6/10,6p, +35 at Class 3 level. The yard are in decent enough form also, and had a winner at Huntingdon recently who was making seasonal reappearance. 

This is only the 8th chase run of his life, I think he’ll appreciate the slight ease in the ground (albeit they clearly don’t think he’s a mudlark, which makes me think he will be forward enough here, before deep winter ground arrives- if indeed it does) and it’s a lesser race that he’s competing in. He somewhat bolted up at Fontwell and Hereford (ran to a 135 RPR there, much higher than anything in this has achieved , the whip wasn’t needed, pulling away at the line from a NTO winner, front two miles clear). He was then pitched in deep – that Cheltenham race was clearly much better than this and he ran ok – he was tapped for toe the whole way round really but jumped well and stayed on up the hill. He’s now 5lb lower than for that run. Aintree was a decent enough race but again he was outpaced around there – partly class of race/ground/track – it’s also possible that after 4 solid/hard runs he’d had enough. The same can be said about the FFos Las race. It could be he won’t be as good as they think but this is the weakest race he’s run in since that Hereford demolition job, and there should be more to come. 

Jamie is in form, and he may be aggressive on him – he may not. This one has been ridden forward and held up off the pace – the pace map around here suggests hold up horses do fine. 

The dangers…

Oathkeeper – in the end I decided 4s was too short given the questions. He’s looking well handicapped now and has some decent Irish placed form. Junior takes over, they reach for a TT which he’s worn once, and he may come on from his last run. That was a C4 Novice handicap chase at Sedgefield and he needs to step up here. He’s also now 0/13,4p over fences – and I think that price is tight enough. I do think he could have an attitude question/seeing out his races. However, his last two rides have looked ‘interesting’ to a point, and he hasn’t been well fancied really. I won’t be shocked if he won this, but I’ve picked the one above for the reasons stated. If he runs his race I think he’s the one to beat. If he doesn’t, Jonjo’s could well take it. 

I can’t have Ballymailn at 7/2 on this ground, over 2m7f around here – I just think it may all happen too quickly – he looks like a heavy ground plodder these days, open to attack from something with more toe. They may try and make all and stretch them, and he will keep going, but I can take on at that price and if iv’ve got him wrong, so be it. 

Boughtbeforelunch – I can leave him at the price also – he doesn’t have a winning record fresh and unlike the selection the trainer stats are not the best for such types, albeit he can ready them, just not that often. The yard are also 0/9,1p in the last 30 days, and he went up 10lb for not winning LTO. If a1 he could go close, but I was happy to take him on. 

I couldn’t have the other two for various reasons. 

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Teaser… 

Quite simply if this one repeats his run LTO, he’d win this – he should have been put in 3/1 fav or so IMO.  There is a question over whether he can back up such an effort just 12 days later, for a slender framed 4YO, but he appears to take his racing rather well and it could be it’s what he enjoys. This is a much lesser race than LTO and he drops 2-3f which should help. He races prominently, does jump to his right a tad, but fine, and is consistent/a trier. If he runs his race, the rest are in trouble. He also needs decent ground and connections will be aware that he won’t have many opportunities left before next spring/summer. 

I was dismissive of him in my own head before MR LTO – I did question his stamina over what was 2m6f in the end and his jumping/size- on his start before at NA he didn’t jump at all well and was never in a rhythm – in hindsight it was remarkable he got so close to winning given the ground lost at his fences. But he was superb at Market Rasen – that was a deep deep race for the time of year and the right three horses were in front – we had the unexposed winner there for Twister, the second was an in form Jonjo horse and the third was a LTO unexposed chaser for Longsdon. The front 4 miles clear. Nothing in this race could do what Teaser did in that. After the last he was bang there, before tying up a tad but still trying.  

Now, of course there’s a chance he doesn’t run his race… if that’s the case i’m not sure who will take this…

Keep Moving is the obvious one, IF fit – that is the question at the odds, given he hasn’t won fresh – but the yard are red hot and can ready them. I do think he needs to step up on form though. 

I think Cougars Gold and Cap St Vincent may both need the run. They were much shorter when I was looking and both trainers don’t do very well here at all – Bowen 1/27 last 5 years, Vaughan 0/56, 13p. His horse steps up in class, also has stamina to prove, and of course fitness. So, if either beats me, so be it. 

There’s money for Poker School who should appreciate this step back up in trip – of the ‘exposed’ brigade, he would be most interesting. 

He, along with the others, are all ‘been there and done it’ (or not done it) more exposed chasers, and not the sort I wish to focus on generally – if one of them is good enough for this so be it – well, if mine bombs, and the current fav isn’t fit, one of them clearly will take it (provided the Bowen/Vaughan horses also need it) but I couldn’t be with them. Royal Plaza may run his race again, but that was a poor race LTO. 

Teaser should race up there, and may even get to dictate which would be welcome, but he shouldn’t be far away. Hopefully he gets into a rhythm and we can have some fun. 

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2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Exeter

5.05 – Binn Boru (all Hc’s) ES+ I3 4/1 S3A

 

Worcester

None

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister

2.45 Worc – Ballymalin (m1) 3/1 WON 3/1>9/4 

3.20 Worc – Waitonit (m2, 16/1< guide) 7/2 UP

4.55 Worc -Darling Alko (m2, 16/1< guide) 20/1 UP 12/1

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

2.45 Worc – Kings Monarch 4/1 UP 9/ 4

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

3.30 Exet – Cougars Gold (17/2< guide) 13/2 2nd

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: JUMPS 2019/20 REPORT HERE>>>

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NEW: Tracker Tuesday post : READ HERE>>>

(inc 4 chasers, a Nick Williams stat, and a poss ‘hot trainer’ to keep onside0 

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Trends Thursday post to follow, so look out for that later…

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. Thurles.
    3-45. Very Smart looks interesting only one to have won in the ground and up in trip to a mile for the first time, 12-1 4 places, 14-1 3 places.
    a couple that might be worth a look at
    4-15. Aunty Audrey
    4-50. Lleyton
    Worcester.
    just a couple of favs flagged up
    2-45. Ballymalin
    4-25. Do You Know What
    Exeter.
    a few that look speculative but might be worth a tiny ew.
    2-20. Grageelagh Girl
    3-30. Poker School
    4-35. Ladies Dancing
    time allowing i’ll run through tonight’s AW later.

  2. couple of silly 10p ew L15’s
    Zoom Zoom Babe @ 13/2 (Thurles (Ireland), Outright)
    Very Smart @ 14/1 (Thurles (Ireland), Outright)
    Aunty Audrey @ 9/1 (Thurles (Ireland), Outright)
    Lleyton @ 25/1 (Thurles (Ireland), Outright)
    Multiple Type: Each Way Lucky 15

    Grageelagh Girl @ 16/1 (Exeter, Outright)
    Poker School @ 8/1 (Exeter, Outright)
    Ladies Dancing @ 20/1 (Exeter, Outright)
    Hot Ryan @ 15/2 (Exeter, Outright)
    Multiple Type: Each Way Lucky 15
    E/W: Yes
    Stake: £3.00

  3. COLINS BETS
    6.15 Southwell Break The Silence 9/2
    8.00 Kempton Lucky Turn 3/1
    ORIGINAL
    8.00 Kempton Lucky Turn 3/1
    Colin

  4. My Nap of the day is…….7.30 Kempton, Cent Flying, 1 point each way at 33/1 Bet365.

    One form Lambourn via Warren Greatrex, 4.25 Wor, North Star Oscar.

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