Free Daily Post: 09/10/19 (complete)

Below i’ve repeated today’s members’ tip, including a video where I touch on my process/thinking.

Since late Feb when I started to re-focus my tipping efforts on what I do best (having tried and failed to tip across all race types/codes) it’s gone well enough…

80 bets / 19 wins / 32 places (inc wins) / +62.8 (adv/bog) / +62.18 BFSP / 79% ROI 

Let’s crack on…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.15 Ludlow – WOLFCATCHER – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365) 7/1 (gen)

that’s all for main chase tips, 08.32 … *NOTE..there’s since been a 10R4 and he’s being well backed – 13/2 lasted for a good 40 mins post tip, but he’s generally now 9/2 as of 09.50. 

I think there’s more to come from this one and I wanted to see him over this trip again, as there’s a chance he improves for it. I’m blaming his last run on the lack of a tongue-tie, the first time he’d run without it since 2017, and he did stop/fade after 2 out as if that may have been the reason – there’s a chance 23f at Worc just stretched him and a lack of stamina was to blame but in the context of this race I thought it was built into the price. He’s got some solid form to his name over fences, on decent ground (he seemingly hates any cut). Many of his races have worked out well, he’s been running around/or beating higher rated horses, in form horses and he’s got some very good RPRs in the context of his mark, and even more so with the 7lb off. I think his form stacks up as arguably being the best in this race. With no front runners in the race it’s there to be stolen and he’s done that before- I think young Charlie Todd (who rode a chase winner at Stratford and has some very solid stats for a 7lb claimer) will try and make all. He knows the horse well, he generally jumps well and he should be the one to catch turning for home. Whether something out-stays him, we shall see but I was happy to roll the dice. He needs decent ground and on his 10th handicap chase run I thought there was a chance he’d outclass these.

Of the rest…

Well Gone Platninum is on a career high mark, is usually held up cold (not ideal around here, even in a small field), has had 68 days off and it wasn’t a great race at Bangor. He won for us there but at 2/1 I was happy to take him on.

As I was Beau Sancy who’s 17lb or so above his last chase win and his last two runs, when fancied in weak novice hurdles, have only been ‘ok’ – there’s not much depth to his chance form imo and again, at 11/4 or so, I was happy to take on.

As I was Beau Du Brizai at his price- mainly as we are guessing as to fitness, especially given that’s he’s never placed after 60+ days off and at those odds I want proven winning form after a break, or at least not beaten far/running on. It’s a question. IF he were a1, he’d go well enough, but again he’s open to attack from something with more in hand.

Marble Moon… he won for us LTO at Bangor also but he’s up in the ratings and up in class (albeit he hacked up here in a C3/weak race/when thrown in). I don’t like the 51 day break and the yard could be hotter, albeit a winner in the last few days. There could be more to come but I fancied Wolfcatcher at the prices.

So, hopefully mine makes all and they don’t see which way he’s gone. 13/2 or so (10p R4 now) looked big to my eyes.

Fingers crossed.

Josh

 

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