Members Daily Post: 09/10/19 (complete:09.52)

Video +write up…Main tip x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/97, 34p +45.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.15 Ludlow – WOLFCATCHER – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365) 7/1 (gen) UP (3rd) 3/1, well no excuse there – the two in front have outstayed him – it was the question but he’s had no excuse and the lack of TT clearly wasn’t the reason as such LTO – he travelled/jumped well and hit the front after 3 out – i thought he may just pull away. A more aggressive ride over shorter may do the trick, but he’s ground dependent and doesn’t want any cut. Annoying to see Marble Moon 6s>5/2 effectively make all – I’ve got him wrong there, albeit mine hasn’t stayed as well, and Hobbs horse may be in grip of the ‘capper/sharper for run, but he’s stepped forward from LTO, good ride. 

that’s all for main chase tips, 08.32, write up… 

There’s a 25 min video at the bottom of the post, which previews this race and touches on my thought process >>>

I think there’s more to come from this one and I wanted to see him over this trip again, as there’s a chance he improves for it. I’m blaming his last run on the lack of a tongue-tie, the first time he’d run without it since 2017, and he did stop/fade after 2 out as if that may have been the reason – there’s a chance 23f at Worc just stretched him and a lack of stamina was to blame but in the context of this race I thought it was built into the price. He’s got some solid form to his name over fences, on decent ground (he seemingly hates any cut). Many of his races have worked out well, he’s been running around/or beating higher rated horses, in form horses and he’s got some very good RPRs in the context of his mark, and even more so with the 7lb off. I think his form stacks up as arguably being the best in this race. With no front runners in the race it’s there to be stolen and he’s done that before- I think young Charlie Todd (who rode a chase winner at Stratford and has some very solid stats for a 7lb claimer) will try and make all. He knows the horse well, he generally jumps well and he should be the one to catch turning for home. Whether something out-stays him, we shall see but I was happy to roll the dice. He needs decent ground and on his 10th handicap chase run I thought there was a chance he’d outclass these.

Of the rest…

Well Gone Platninum is on a career high mark, is usually held up cold (not ideal around here, even in a small field), has had 68 days off and it wasn’t a great race at Bangor. He won for us there but at 2/1 I was happy to take him on.

As I was Beau Sancy who’s 17lb or so above his last chase win and his last two runs, when fancied in weak novice hurdles, have only been ‘ok’ – there’s not much depth to his chance form imo and again, at 11/4 or so, I was happy to take on.

As I was Beau Du Brizai at his price- mainly as we are guessing as to fitness, especially given that’s he’s never placed after 60+ days off and at those odds I want proven winning form after a break, or at least not beaten far/running on. It’s a question. IF he were a1, he’d go well enough, but again he’s open to attack from something with more in hand.

Marble Moon… he won for us LTO at Bangor also but he’s up in the ratings and up in class (albeit he hacked up here in a C3/weak race/when thrown in). I don’t like the 51 day break and the yard could be hotter, albeit a winner in the last few days. There could be more to come but I fancied Wolfcatcher at the prices.

So, hopefully mine makes all and they don’t see which way he’s gone. 13/2 or so (10p R4 now) looked big to my eyes.

Fingers crossed.

Josh

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/26,13p, +15.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ludlow

1.15 – Beau Du Brizais (all Hc’s) 14,30 w2 ES+ H3 4/1 S3A 2nd 

1.45 – Midnight Glory (all Hc’s) 14,30  w1 ES+ 6/1 S3A UP

2.45 –

Global Tour (HcH) 30 H3 I1 10/1  WON 10/1>11/2 

Tikkinthebox (HcH) w1 H1 6/1  UP

 

Wincanton

3.45 – Irish Prophesy (HcH) 14,30  9/2 WON 9/2

 

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FLAT

Nottingham

4.00 –

Knowing Glance (all Hc’s,micro’s TJC,dist and age) w1 ES+ H3 I3 6/1 S3A#

Eponina (3yo+) I3 11/2 

4.30 – First Voyage (3yo+) 9/1 

5.00 –

Deinonychus (3yo+) w1 H1 I1 G1 11/4 S1 S4 WON 11/4>11/8 

Sociologist (all Hc’s) G3 33/1 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle (14/1<) 

3.45 Winc – Irish Prophecy  WON 9/2>4/1 

Twister 

3.20 Lud – Bit On The Side (m2, 16/1<)  2nd 9/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.10 Winc – Isaac Wonder (20/1< guide) (Update: posted in error/wrong angle/apols) UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

2.15 Lud – Pink Eyed Pedro (2nd run, 1st over fences) 2nd 6/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: JUMPS 2019/20 REPORT HERE>>>

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NEW: Tracker Tuesday post : READ HERE>>>

(inc 4 chasers, a Nick Williams stat, and a poss ‘hot trainer’ to keep onside0 

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Video preview of my Tip/race above >>>

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. Good to see jumps beginning to take centre stage again.

    Kim Bailey has a good record with bumpers at Ludlow 40% over the last 5 yrs
    Cinderbella at around 10/1 mark represents a bit of value in that context to keep run going

  2. Nottingham
    1:25 Hong Kong harry

    Navan
    2:00 king of kels

    Newcastle
    6:25 eventful
    6:55 guipure
    8:25 barbarosa

  3. well i think i can safely say that the wheels have come off my little experiment after a nice start but it hasn’t been a complete waste of time as i have noticed it has been flagging up some nice sorts at shorter odds and in races with under 8 runners, also a few at big prices that could very well be worth a small speculative punt.
    The rules were very simple 8+ runners odds 5-1+ and must have previously won in same going/class/distance if more than 1 qualifier just add number of wins in those 3 for selection.
    Today for example has flagged up these:
    Nottingham.
    4-00. Knowing Glance
    5-00. Deinonychus (miles ahead of anything else) and Cosmic Ray (looks speculative)
    Ludlow.
    1-45. Midnight Glory/Skewiff
    2-45. Global Tour/Our Three Sons
    Navan.
    3-05. Doonard Prince
    3-40. Sors
    5-15. Papal Prince
    i’m going to keep looking at these and see if there is an angle if further input is added.

    1. You have to play with angles etc and try to unearth something. It means tracking different things and angles but most do not work out. However you do come across the occasional nugget, such as Karl Burke at Southwell in 2019 etc. I do a lot of that sort of thing and would be lucky to get one out of twenty to work, but when they do you make money from them.
      Anyway, keep trying and if you need assistance shout.

    2. Best of luck Martin…

      If just focusing on the flat for a moment… if the angle/way in is horses ‘proven’ in conditions, with wins in going/class/distance – that means they’ve at least one win, probably more, and thus edging towards the more ‘exposed’ end – or in any case the handicapper has a better idea of how to rate them etc – in that context, those types could be open to attack from horses unproven in conditions, but who may improve for them etc –

      … in that scenario, you could look at different age restrictions – you ‘could’ just focus on handicaps for 4yo+ say, ensuring no lightly raced/unexposed 3 year olds, or you go the other way and look at 3YO only etc – or just focus on races with X or fewer 3 year olds lining up, as an example.
      Obv when dealing with older horses, and races with fewer exposed types in, you’re then looking at handicap marks etc/whether below last mark or whatever.
      Plenty to think about but i’d ponder age, race type, the sorts of races to focus on. Which could inc leaving alone C6 dross on the flat, full of inconsistent animals etc.

      Just a few ideas to ponder anyway.
      Josh

      1. My experience tells me the unexposed/lightly raced angle pays best in horse racing, on the flat and over jumps. With the volume of racing we have in the UK a number of unexposed types go off at decent prices all year round. Always worth a look through the cards for such runners.

        1. yep I agree, and many of those are not ‘proven’ in conditions etc – hence the dilemma, esp if looking for a ‘strategic approach’ – but if you want to focus on ‘been there and done it’ types, you want as fewer 3 year olds in a race as poss for starters, albeit that’s a simplistic app also.
          But, I couldn’t hack analysing flat handicaps, too much of a mind muddler, esp when everything else to focus on – trappy, and well, not for me it seems!

          With the chasers- it’s generally younger/more lightly raced chase legs which is the place to focus, time and time again.

  4. My Nap of the day is….3.20 Lud, Urban Artist for 2 points whilst the 9/4 lasts. Apparently highly rated.

    1. Ah yes, you are eagle eyed this morning! Yep that’s an error- I had another M Scudamore angle saved in HRB and that has confused me – i’ve now deleted that angle.
      Good spot. … albeit having just looked he’s only had 2 four year olds run in any chase in last 5 eyars, and the winner was Isaacs LTO- that run/win came after the angle was researched and with no evidence as per his four year olds i clearly decided to leave out until ‘proven’
      Josh

  5. Where did that 8/1 go for Wolfcatcher ? 4’s and 7/2 left for me now, did you put an extra tenner o Josh? I have a sad face now.

    1. Ha, 8s was only ever with bet365 – 7s gen, which didn’t last long… 13/2 held across board for around 40 mins after posting – there was then a NR, 10p R4, so that took it down to 5.85/1 – and well I prob just got there an hour before many others caught up to his chance.

      I need to ponder how best to post the tips, whether I should have a 9am cut off during the week, most recently have been posted between 8-8.45. I’ll have to ponder.

      1. I think you should just post when you’re ready to, I’m not moaning as I cano only get on after 10 anyway due to work, just don’t usually see yours tumble by that much so quickly. Let’s hope it scoots home just like you predict, I thought I’d have a couple of little doubles with it today too so here’s hoping for a little Josh magic!

  6. TIP TOP
    7.40 Kempton Delilah Park 13/2
    8.10 Kempton Garth Rocket 9/4

    ARUBA
    6.55 Newcastle Idoapologise 5/2
    7.40 Kempton Delilah Park 13/2
    Colin

  7. Totally missed the price this morning on Main tip when i came on here and then checked was 7/2 !!!!!!

    Have to say tho strangest pre race market iv seen that, bookies clearly not having any confidence with there own read of the race prices changing all over
    Did notice Marble Moon come into 3’s quite fast just b4 the off

    Have to say tho dont know how Wolfcatcher didn’t win that there Josh, loomed up looked the winner into the straight, not sure what happened with him to be honest???

    1. oh he’s been out-stayed I think – Marble Moon stays 26f and it was a clever ride from Wedge on the front, annoyed to have underestimated him really having backed him LTO – but I thought if mine stayed he’d be better, but he did have to prove it – he wasn’t exactly stopping come the line, but stronger stayers I think in front – he’s taken it up 3 out or so and I thought he may just go on/other two would fall in a hole! Clearly wasn’t the TT LTO and was as much the trip for the fade. He’d be fun around there over 2m4/5f, able to dictate – he travelled well and jumped well- but could be for next spring if rains come. Hopefully i’ll get my money back on him at some point. – maybe he also doesn’t put it in as much as the other two also – his two chase wins he hasn’t had to battle anything, as I ponder. Rider has dropped his whip before the last also but doubt that made any difference.
      Anyway, a run for my money, only beaten just over 2l, so I won’t fester too much , and i’m beating SP plenty.
      On we go.

  8. woohoo 3/4 on a silly 10p ew l15 pays £400 🙂 winners at 33-1,10-1 and 8-1, 25-1 shot up or it could have been extremely nice or is that just being greedy.

    1. You can’t be too greedy now Martin haha – great stuff, well done, a fun way to play those pokes while testing. Great job – it may be that sort of approach will have some long losing runs, but if it’s finding biggies like that etc, they will make up for it. Onwards

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