Members Daily Post: 08/10/19 (complete:08.53)

write up+ Test tip x1, Section 2 (complete),

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/96, 34p +46.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/26,13p, +15.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

4.50 Galway – Punches Cross – 1 point win – 10/3 (gen, x6) UP 5/1, the JP market told the story there, the fragile but ‘could be anything’ 6/1>4s did the business and I suspect he’s had it right off there – maybe that could have been predicted, esp given the horse’s profile, and he clearly doesn’t stand much racing. I suspect that will be the final time I play in Ireland outside of the ‘Nationals’/Festivals, especially with our jumps season about to hot up. 

that’s all for today as of 08.41, write up…

I don’t think this is a great race really, between 3/4 of them, and IF this one takes to the blinkers again, and runs/builds on LTO – well I think he could decimate this lot. I wanted to take the chance at 10/3 as I think he should be shorter. He travelled the best he’s done for a very long time LTO, where he got tapped for toe turning in momentarily, then got short of room 2 out. He somewhat flew (relatively/visually) after the last in a way which suggests to me he’s got a fair bit in hand. That was a better race than this also. He’s only 6 and this is his 8th handicap chase, he generally jumps well and he does know how to win.

I thought it interesting that they retain the blinkers and that Mark Walsh now jumps on for the first time in a few runs – esp as he’s 2/3 on the horse in handicap chases (all his career wins). If he’s clearly travelling as well as LTO early on, and races prominently enough, i’ll enjoy watching this. I think he will relish the long run for home at Galway after the last – given how he finishes etc, it could be ideal for him. No excuses.

The ground may not be ideal- I think he handles soft+ just fine two starts back, but he hit a flat spot, then ran on again. He didn’t run like a horse who hated the going to my eyes. His sires offspring get all sorts over jumps, and his dam has produced some soft/heavy ground winners.

I do think this race is all about him really, poor sod. Bilbo Bagins is an obvious danger but has fitness to prove and he’s a 17 raced 10 year old now on a career high mark. I won’t be shocked if he took this, and if he’s A1 and I’ve got mine wrong, he will. But I preferred the younger, race fit, legs.

Effernock Lad beat me LTO which was annoying – he’s a trier but again he’s 10 and now on a career high mark also. His best form is also on better ground.

Those were the three really. I couldn’t have the rest. Portmore Lough is the interesting one on handicap debut but I’d like to think Walsh had the choice, it’s his first run in 200+ days, his jockey is 0/38 here in the last few years, and there is a going question also. A few too many questions at 6s for me.

I’ve covered the top 4 in the market – if something else takes this it may well be a sign to leave Irish racing alone, outside of the big handicap chases/Festivals!

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2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Brighton

3.05 –

Duchess Of Avon (3yo+,micro runs) H3 I3 G1 7/1 S4 S6  UP

Goodluck Charm (3yo+) 14/1 

Hedging (m class) 14/1 

Master Poet (3yo+,m runs) 12/1 

4.10 –

Hermocrates (3yo+) I3 12/1 

Light Of Air (3yo+) w1 H1  7/1 S6 UP

4.45 –

Hermosa Vaquera (3yo+) 16/1 

Iballisticvin (3yo+,m runs) G3 6/1 

5.15 –

Major Pusey (3yo+,m class) 9/2 

Toni’s A Star (m age) w2 H1 I1 9/2 S1

 

Catterick

Abandoned. 

 

Leicester……….None

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

NEW TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: JUMPS 2019/20 REPORT HERE>>>

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Betfair… just a quick video if you use Betfair Exchange, and haven’t picked your ‘rewards’ package yet, inc 2% commission… i’m sure you have, but just in case you haven’t >>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. experiment day 8
    5:30 Catterick – Gilmer @ Guaranteed Price (14/1)
    4:45 Brighton – Iballisticvin @ Guaranteed price (8-1)
    4:10 Brighton – Couldn’t Could She @ Guaranteed Price (14/1) 4@1/4 —
    3:05 Brighton – Duke Of North @ Guaranteed Price (14/1) 4@1/4

  2. Galway 4-50. All The Chimneys 12-1 wh/bv. , thought the price was about right for a small ew, had a lung opener over hurdles 10 days ago so should strip fitter, has won in heavy ground before so going shouldn’t be a concern

  3. J Dub…….. Trying to get my hands on your 2m 7F+ spreadsheet, but the link doesn’t appear to work for me. Can you check it for me please?

  4. Hmm, working my end…

    http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/rtp-sep-19/

    Need to click the green RTP Sept 19 link and it should download – well it does here – maybe i’ll have to look at saving that page as an online PDF may be easier, if I can work out how while keeping the formatting.

    The important figures/date are since 22nd Feb when focus was solely on chasers, staying handicaps, and then later on dumping of flat in my head etc fully.

    As of 22nd Feb the BFSP figure was -55 (that was since the July before, where the focus – well lack of – was on all sorts of race types etc – why I deserted the chasers i’ve no idea!)

    As of end of Sept, it was +9.96 BFSP. A fairly decent turnaround in that time 🙂

    Whether I can maintain a decent profit to BFSP time will tell. Obviously I hope that I can

    Josh

    1. Had another go and none of the links on the results pages give me the spreadsheet. Might be a browser thing I dunno. Could you send a copy of the file to my email address maybe? Only need the results from when you decided to renew your focus upon long distance Hcp’s.

      1. Yep can do – do check your ‘downloads’ etc – if you’ve got Excel it will be on your machine somewhere! 🙂
        Josh

        1. I run Linux here Josh. I have windows running in Virtualbox (for Proform purposes only), but it has restricted access to the internet. This Windows 7 OS I run is a stripped out version, so I don’t have Excel either but OpenOffice reformats windows files to .odt spec’ so it should open ok.

          1. Just opened it Josh and appears to be working fine. Are they grouped with the ‘Festival Tips’ under the ‘Daily Tips’ tab?

          2. I have emailed you also.
            It’s the daily tips tab for the main daily tips (not the test…i’ve a new sheet re-setting, tracking both etc now) – the Festival Tips are in another spreadsheet somewhere that I should probably take a look at! 🙂 I’ll dig that out.
            Josh

  5. Hi Josh, I’ve only just seen your autumn trainers piece. Some of the angles look of interest to me. Sorry if you have mentioned before but will you be flagging the qualifiers up on the daily bulletin? Regards James

    1. Hi James,

      Yep, did you read yesterday’s members post, as an example? 🙂 The test zone – as per that example – Autumn quals have been flagged since start of September I think in the daily members’ posts, in Test Zone, section 3 above. There haven’t been masses but enough, for Twister, Lavelle, not many for Longsdon as yet since I researched that angle.
      cheers, Josh

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