Members Daily Post: 07/10/19 (complete:09.02)

write up+ test tip x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/96, 34p +46.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/25,13p, +16.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

3.50 Strat – High Counsel – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365) 18/1 (WH/UniB) 16/1 (others) UP 16/1>9/2… well the most excitement there was in the lead up to the race, 8s>9/2 in last 10 mins… ‘proper money’ – alas the market was incorrect, and substantially beating SP was the only crumb of comfort there, albeit he gave me a run for my money until a point, but chance gone app the last. Still, if you get 9/2 about enough 16s shots over time, the odd one will go in! 🙂 

that’s all for today, as of 08.34, write up…

This is a poke, a bit like the one at Worcester the other day – that selection may still be running – but the odd one of these will fall in. It’s not the sort of race to be attacking or profile to be backing that often but his price has lured me in – having looked through all the runners this race feels like something will be winning by default – most arrive in awful form or have questions after poor runs LTO and they all have some sort of question on this softening ground. So, there could be a surprise, odds wise anyway…

High Counsel – he’s clearly had a few problems in recent years but is fairly lightly raced for his age and returned after 392 days LTO, at this track. I find it interesting they come back here and the 46 days should ensure no ‘bounce’ but, you never know. The same jockey keeps the ride also and it’s not impossible they mapped this out, at a track the trainer does well at (4/19,9p, +22 last 5 years) He ran ok when last seen – he didn’t fall out the back of the tv. He generally travelled and jumped well, and I suspect he badly needed it, or in any case the trip may have been too far also. But he plugged on.

He’s got the ability to figure against these, especially if taking a view that some of them may all fall in a hole (as well he might). The ground is more of an unknown for him in the sense he hasn’t run on GS/Soft that often. His older legs may enjoy a bit of cut now, we shall see. But in that scenario you always want a decent price.

His case, at the odds, is enhanced due to the opposition.

Oak Vintage has fitness to prove on his return as well as stamina. He’s won fresh for previous connections before but his new trainer (6th start for Kirby) is 0/16, 1p in the last 14 days, 0/30, 2p in the last 30. I’d personally want to see more life from the yard before diving into a 6/7s shot, but he will be fine on the ground.

Chimes of Dylan has a going question (certainly in context of being 11/4 – you want every boxed ticked at that price) and he was beaten when falling LTO. He is a moderate summer jumper and the race he won, and LTO, hasn’t worked out that well. If he got back to the form of that Ffos Las win he’d prob be the one to beat – and he is only 6. But there’s a chance he runs a shocker.

King Calvin has his first run for C Williams – he’s 1/40 with stable-switchers in the last 2 years, 2/59 with horses returning after 60+ days off – those are the sort of stats that make 7/2 about any horse seem short to my eyes. He’s unexposed but was in awful form for Jack Barber when last seen – and he’s no mug at the training game. His mark is in free-fall and he’s one to watch as if the yard find the key/improve him etc, he’ll have races in him. He’s another where soft-ish ground poses a question.

Flying Verse is inconsistent – if he repeats that run two starts back he’d go close against these – that win was inspired by another swap of the headgear I think. No change today. He was awful LTO, not looking that interested at times. Another where ground softer than good poses a question. He could go close, but I wouldn’t want to dive in at 11/2.

Between The Waters – also seems short enough at 9/2 , esp given his last two runs, and another who has questions on the ground. If he got back to his July/June form, then he’d be a massive danger – his young jockey is only having his 9th ride over fences here (inc hunter chase) and has yet to place. I can leave him at 9/2.

Forevermyfriend – well it’s just the sort of race where a 12 year old would pop up and win. He does have a win on soft and any ‘instant expert’ users in Geegeez will have noted his profile against conditions. He did run better LTO and maybe he can build on that, but he has seemed regressive since his return to action this July. He is no forlorn hope at 8s and I can see the case for a small tickle on him – esp as he may get a freebie on the lead…

Pace wise… well Forever My Friend likes to make all, or try to. Oak Vintage may track, as will Between The Waters/ King Calvin / Chimes of Dylan.  High Counsel was held up LTO (they have a decent record over this CD) so they may do that again. We shall see. In this small field and given the horses competing, there shouldn’t be an excuse.

With any luck the selections runs his race, and that could well be good enough if my assessment of those above is correct. In any case, at 18s / 16s, in the context of this race, I thought he was worth a poke.

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2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Windsor

3.40 – Autumn War (all Hc’s) I3 G3 16/1

4.10 – Conspiritor (all Hc’s) 20/1

 

Pontefract………..None

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JUMPS

Stratford

3.50 – Forever My Friend (all Hc’s,HcCh) I3 G3 8/1  S1 (BFSP 12.00) UP 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers (14/1<)

Lavelle 

3.20 Strat – Boreham Bill WON 10/1>6/1 / Gunfleet UP

4.20 Strat – Celtic Joy 2nd

Twister

4.50 Strat – Leroy Brown (m2, 16/1< guide) 3rd

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

NEW TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: JUMPS 2019/20 REPORT HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. Experiment day 7.
    Pontefract.
    4-30.Mustaqbal 6-1
    Windsor.
    4-10. Nightingale Valley 16-1
    5-10. Ocean Temptress 40-1

    1. used the same rules for aw at Newcastle but i don’t know what “before PO” means so these might not be right.
      8-00. Gun case 10-1
      8-30. Deeds Not Words 16-1

  2. Nothing for me this afternoon either. Will have another look later but not holding my breath for Newcastle tonight. Back at 4.00

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