Members Daily Post: 05/10/19 (complete.8.10)

No tips, Section 2 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/96, 34p +46.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None. Not much to go on today and I can’t be tempted into the Irish chases this time. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 5/24,13p, +17.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

FLAT

Ascot

3.10 – Raising Sand (all Hc’s) w2 I1 6/1 S6 

 

Redcar

4.10 – Creek Island (all Hc’s) ES+ 16/1 S3A

 

Newmarket………..None

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JUMPS

Fontwell

3.00 – Zubayr (HcH) w1 7/2 

4.40 – Shimba Hills (HcCh) ES+ 12/1 S3A

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

Saturday Big Race Trends Race

Trends HERE>>>

Ascot Challenge Cup 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) T

  • Raising Sand 
  • Kynren 
  • Casanova 
  • Makzeem 
  • Lake Volta 

Shortlist 

The 15/15 and 14/15 stats leave 14 of the previous 15 winners (14/138 runners, 31p), leaving >>>

Rip Orf / Kynren T/ Casanova T/ Escobar / Makzeem T/ Batered / Remarkable / Lake Volta T

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Hi Josh

    Caroline’s Charm is out tomorrow 14-25 Fontwell Neil says he is in good order and should go well I can’t make it again due family commitments can you have a look and see if from your analysis he has a chance ?

    Regards

    Peter

    1. Hi Peter… Looks a competitive race to my eyes in truth. You say yours has a breathing problem? He will need to find improvement from LTO to take this.
      Some lightly races hurdlers in the could be anything category, Dr Newland may improve Included who’ll enjoy return to this trip. Pointed and Sharp looks solid. A shame there isn’t 3 places. No forlorn hope as some may need run etc but looks hot enough for the level.

    1. Well of I’m honest Ive started working in a Co working space again…. Nice to be around other people haha. And well, as its Friday, a few of us may be in a bar. So I was never looking this evening! I’ll be fresh tomorrow! I’m spending the Mellow Ben winnings.

  2. Harry… I make that +10 points from the ‘through the card’ for Hexham I think. Hope you had a great day out. Love the jumps! None of this AW nonsense haha.

    1. Very grateful josh & to others for their help
      These smaller courses are what makes NH racing & strangely the weather added to it
      Poor quality, attritional races – just something really good about that!!
      As much as I love aintree- these type of courses are special- ludlow, Sedgefield etc – it’s a must do!
      Thanks again

  3. Just looking here the big 7F sprint at Ascott 2moz, the 3.10
    Gosden got a similar runner to last weeks Lord North
    Casanova obvs unexposed and was gelded 2 starts ago and won both races since
    Obviously quite possible not as talented as Lord North but very similar in lead up. Bit of a drift on this 1 tho out to 9’s now from 7’s, also ground an unknown. But looked very strong that last race over a mile so sets up good for the Ascot test

    1. It may well win. The step up in class is OK because that is what improving horses do.
      At the prices I like Qaysar at 20/1+ each way. Won its last two in small fields. Class and distance winner.

  4. Experiment day 6.
    Ascot.
    2-00. Intense Romance 12-1
    3-10. Qaysar 22-1 5 places
    3-40. Raucous 8-1
    4-15. Tapisserie 10-1
    Redcar.
    4-45. Dance King 18-1 4 places
    Newmaket.
    2-15. Betty’s Hope 10-1 5 places
    3-25. Laurens if 5-1+

  5. Morning,

    Going to stick my neck out and have a look at a couple of good uns at Gowran Park.
    16:25 GP
    JURY DUTY 1pt win @ 8/1 gen
    Picking up on horses who come back from a break and do well, focuses my eyes on JD, his record reads 3412131, yes, this is taking his early form into consideration, but, over the bigger obstacles it reads 131, the 3rd was in the Galway Plate and looking into his form a bit further he doesn`t seem to like big fields, only his 2 hcp hdles victories back in 2016 were in 16 runner fields, every win since then has been under 10 runners. His form for such races since he started over the bigger obstacles reads, (under 10 runners), 12122211, so, hopefully I have made a good case for him, take out the larger field and his First time out chase form after a break reads 11, so, there you go, make of that what you will, definitely over priced at 8/1….
    US AND THEM 1pt win @ 9/1 gen
    I have to put the value horse in here, Mr O`Brien is a dab hand at trying these kind of horses at this trip and watching them bolt up, EDWULF being one that has done such a feat in the past, it seems to be his pet project, throw them in at all distances and see how they do!? So, because of that factor and knowing what Joseph is like I`ll have a punt at the 9/1 on offer, Peregrine run could trounce all these, but, at the odds I`ll take these two to cause an upset. He has been crying out for this longer distance in these races and after watching how he jumps, (he is quite a big horse and clears obstacles well), he looks tailor made for a big race like this.
    17:00 GP
    HOME PLACE 1pt win @ 20/1 gen
    Now, this is one of those win/out the back of the tv horses, if the real HP turns up here, with this feather weight and the jockey taking a further 3lbs off his back (good claiming jockey to boot), he will be hard to peg back, if coming with his usual on the bridle late run, if he runs like he has done after his win this season then cash out as quick as you can…I have trawled through his form and watched his races, he is quirky, that is the best way to describe him, nothing really stands out as to why he does/ doesn`t win, but, when he`s on song, he runs really well and at 20/1 that is factored in if he romps home…Think it might be he is just a baby and needs a strong ride, which hopefully Darragh should give him here, we shall see.
    HIGH SPARROW 1pt win @ 11/2 gen
    I know…I know, its been said before, another one of those “Don`t know what distance is best JP O`Brien horses!”, well this one is being tried out in a Hcp chse after some middle of the road performances over the bigger obstacles, Heavy ground may be the key to him, so, by the time this race is run that will work in his favour, by 15:00 it`s supposed to be throwing it down and with the ground already gd-yldng… 11/2 is just about value, I had him at 9/2…we shall see, let the floodgates open!!

    As usual, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    1. Can`t complain with the run of all four their, it was a war of attrition and the going was atrocious! Unless the NTO is a bog I wouldn`t read too much into the form lines..

  6. My nap of the day is in the 1.40 Newmarket, Torochica, 1 point each way, 25/1 available now.
    She steps up in class here after some OK runs. This is a very competitive race but at the price she is worth a go.

    Good luck.

  7. Longchamp
    4:35 falcon flight

    Ascot
    3:10 Bedouins star

    Newmarket
    2:50 eshaasy

    Wolverhampton
    6:00 Gifted dreamer

  8. TIP TOP
    8.00 Wolverhampton Betsey Trotter 11/4
    ARUBA
    4.00 Newmarket Raaeb 10/3
    yesterdays winner put up at 5/2 drifted to 3/1 then smashed into Evens

  9. No tips from me for this afternoon. Looks very tricky and the ground conditions for flat horses not helping. Quality jumps still not underway so don’t feel I’m missing out on much TBH. Tonight’s action looks slightly better than the usual Wolverhampton card (only two class 6 races), so might have something to offer when I return at 4.00

  10. two for me at Redcar.
    2-55. Hartwood 18-1 4 places, his head 2nd to Duesenberg 6f in soft ground looks pretty good form followed that up with an easy win lto in a poor race over 7f so should get home in the testing conditions. £3 ew.
    4-55. Dance King 20-1 4 places, out of sorts in recent starts but he will handle this ground and stable have been showing a bit of form lately, losing run a worry but on his best form would walk this. £2 ew
    £1 ew double

  11. Just one winner yesterday which was disappointing…not in jumps mode so missed your winner Josh….well done and only a couple today but lacking enthusiasm as the quality at the back end of the flat has been dire for the past weeks so only tentative selections today:

    Nmkt 2.15. Lambeth Walk e/w
    Nmkt 2.50. ~Shoshone Warrior and Eshaasy e/w.

    Combination of speed and pedigrees but not confident about putting up so even though I will have a few pennies on them would advise caution as these are tricky races…gd lck with whatever you are backing today

  12. Despite the better quality tonight at Wolverhampton still struggling to find anything I can give as a tip. Is only the one and it needs to move back out a little to make the price.

    Wolv’ 8.00 Chitra…….. 7.0 No Form HCP

  13. Sunday, Experiment day 6
    2:20 Kelso – Let’s Sway @Guaranteed Price (17/2)
    5:30 Kelso – Viking Hoard @Guaranteed Price (22/1)
    2:10 Uttoxeter -Royal Beekeeper @Guaranteed Price (28/1)
    4:10 Uttoxeter-Allelu Alleluia @Guaranteed Price (6/1)
    if i’m not around when today’s post goes up can you move this please Josh

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