Members Daily Post: 04/10/19 (complete:11am)

Sat trends shortlist >>> write up+test tip x1, Section 2 (complete) , test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/96, 34p +46.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 4/23,12p, +12.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

4.45 Fontwell – MELLOW BEN – 1 point win – 5/1 (betf/BV/PP) 9/2 (others)

that’s all for today, as of 08.51, write up…

IF the real Tea For Two turns up here the rest may be in a different parish – but 5/2 looks tight to me, especially on hist first run back (these older horses can take longer to get fit/harder to get fit at home), he’s 10, isn’t the force of old (but may not need to be of course) they’ve given him a wind op (I don’t see those as a positive generally, and certainly not at this price point) and then there’s the trip/track – this could be sharp enough for him around here – in any case it’s another question. I can’t be with him at 5/2, but if mine is out with the washing I hope he decimates them. 

Soupy Soups – I just don’t rate his form really and if he bolts up again here so be it – the Perth race fell apart, nothing really ran it’s race, the second isn’t that good, and he’s just kept going when many others gave up, not handling the ground/conditions at all. He races only 9 days later here and any race in such ground does take it’s toll. He takes a drop in trip, on better ground, which i’m not sure will suit. Dunne is 0/9,1p in c2 chases for Mulholland and is only 1/28 at the track in the last 5 years. I could have him very wrong but I want to take him on also. 

So… that leaves the rest and i’ve gone for the young unexposed one, who I thought should be a 3s shot or so in this, especially given my views on the two above. His last two runs have been career bests on RPRs and there’s every chance this 6 year old is going to make up into a better chaser than hurdler – where he was solid also, inc two course wins. Clearly he does have to step up again, esp given the handicapper has whacked him 10lb for that beginners chase win – but he did it easily enough and I’ve decided a few won’t run their race. He’s exuberant and he has jumped very well the last twice. The Newton Abbot run looked rather ‘educational’ . This could be his best ever chance to win a C2 handicap chase. He can also race prominently and there’s a chance Tom can dictate. In any case he shouldn’t be far away and will be in the perfect spot if this turns into a dash. I think Good to Soft is fine – they could get some showers, they could not, and they’re meant to pass – but i’ll take the chance. If it turned to Soup, that would suit the Fav. 

I didn’t like the other three, even at their prices. The other two Mulholland horses just have a few too many questions for me in conditions/given current form. 

Kentford Heiress is interesting to a point but she was lucky enough to win 3 starts back, only ran OK NTO and was rather poor when last seen. 

So, I’ve gone with the least exposed chaser in the race, who’s now got enough experience I think, and there could be more to come. He’s fit, in form, should race up there, has jumped well to date (famous last words) and there are chinks in the oppo. 

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2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

JUMPS

Fontwell

2.25 –

Exxaro (micro distance) I3 5/1 

Delgany Demon (HcCh) ES+ 6/1 S3A UP

4.10 –

Hygrove Percy (HcH,m -class) ES+

Dream Machine (HcH,m runs) w2 ES+ I1 G1 6/1 S3A# (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.45 – Fingerontheswitch (m runs) I3 G3 12/1 S1 

5.15 – Bally Longford (m TJC) H3 I3 G3 10/3 S4 

 

Hexham

2.15 – Lady Shanawell (m TJC) w1 H3 I3 10/3 UP

4.00 – Melody Of Scotland (m TJC) H3 I1 G1 4/1 S4 

4.35 –

Orioninverness (m going) H3 I3 2/1 

Ever So Much (m TJC) w2 H1 I1 7/2 

5.05 –

Flying Jack (HcH) 10/1 

Court Baloo (m dist) w1 H3 G1 4/1 

 

FLAT

Ascot

3.10 – Cliffs of Capri (all Hc’s)  H3 G1 3/1 UP

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.25 Hex – Senor Lombardy (11/1<)  6/5  Fell 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Sept Tipping Comp Winners

Well I can only see two have declared their results… ?? I think the winners below are as follows… but if you think your ROI or Profit was greater in Sept, do shout….

1st – Warren B with the biggest ROI to BFSP… 6/24, +23.86 points, +99.41% ROI (£30 cash money) 

2nd – Mike (Mickeydee) with the biggest profit… 5/65, +40.94 points, +63% ROI (£20 cash money) 

I’ll wait today to see if there are any disputes etc and sort out prizes on Friday.

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Nick’s Tips… just to wrap up the results for the year to date…

2018: +532.33 ; 2019 total End SEPT -41.235 BOG / -42.735 Advised  (Sept 0/16, 3p, -24.7 adv/bog)

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Saturday Big Race Trends Race

Ascot Challenge Cup 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) T

  • Raising Sand 
  • Kynren 
  • Casanova 
  • Makzeem 
  • Lake Volta 

Shortlist 

The 15/15 and 14/15 stats leave 14 of the previous 15 winners (14/138 runners, 31p), leaving >>>

Rip Orf / Kynren T/ Casanova T/ Escobar / Makzeem T/ Batered / Remarkable / Lake Volta T

 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. Would of thought Josh and a few in here would have a go at the 4.45 decent race at Fontwell
    iv just backed Kentford Heiress, I might not get chance to do anything 2moz depending on work, Walt a decent price but seems a funny horse, Tea for Two could win this easily but il oppose FTO

  2. Fontwell
    4:45 tea for two
    5:15 Bally Longford

    Southwell
    5:25 champagne Mondays

    Hexham
    5:05 pleney

    Gowran park
    2:40 galazo

  3. Morning josh & all
    Poor card at Hexham today, your thoughts & any members thoughts would be gratefully received
    Thanks as always
    Harry

    1. Hey Harry,

      Blimey, it is mediocre there today… ‘fun’ money advised…

      R1 – Sweet Vinetta (guessing as to fitness so don’t go mad)
      R2 – Speak of The Devil (prob best just leaving race given Fav, but if he does falter for some reason , you never know)
      R3 – Trixster
      R4 – Attention Seeker – EW
      4.35 – Orion Inverness
      5.05 – Court Baloo

      Enjoy! Will be slow motion stuff there today.
      Josh

        1. haha, yes ,that was the polite description. Still, it’s meant to be one of the most picturesque courses in the country I believe? I haven’t been, and i’m sure they do good beer! But it will be attritional there – low grade, slow horses, heavy ground – still, with any luck hopefully Harry has a fun day out.

          1. Racing never that great but Hexham racecourse is lovely place to visit.
            A bit antiquated but everybody should try and attend once – if you ever visit the North East try & fit in a meeting.
            Not far from Newcastle and easy to there by train

        1. all down hill from here haha – but still, job done at those odds ! 🙂 She clearly was fit.

          If you read this in time… well,i’d add PLENEY in the last race at 5s – IF he’s fit, and that’s the question, he could decimate them – was an Adam norman long term prospects horse, said he wanted soft and a trip! And his hncp h run at Chepstow, over too short/good ground, has worked out ok. Not a great race.
          Him and Fav, maybe worth dutching.

  4. experiment day 5.
    Ascot 4-55. Dazzling Dan 10-1, Lincoln Park 28-1
    Fontwell 4-10. Hygrove Percy 22-1
    Hexham 5-05. Perdseid 50-1

  5. Haha i had a feeling you were going to go with Mellow Ben Josh
    typically after just watching your youngest horse in the race video last night
    i watched replays of last few races and just thought fancy KH over it even tho did a very bad jump last race
    Think going to back yours now aswel and hope 1 wins

    1. best of luck. I can see the case to a point, esp if she returned to form! And given that i’m bullish against the top two at the prices, it does have an open feel – I could make a case for the younger legs in my head at the odds, so we shall see. Maybe we will fight it out! She is unexposed over fences, but 47th or so run of her life, and she was lucky enough at NA as leader made a howler at the last. But she knows how to win, stays and tries – so may not be far away if back to her best.
      Josh

  6. 2.35. Asc. Tribal Craft.
    Chester didn’t suit last time, was also badly hampered
    3.10. Asc. Cliffs of Capri
    C/D winner dropped in class, good speed figures.

  7. Hi Colin, is ARUBA and TIP TOP another type system bet that you are trying or have tried in the past as I have been on a year or so and do not recollect seeing them.. Hope they take the place of ELITE and are they as successful?

  8. As the experiment i’m running has very simple rules and does not take into account course, jockey, trainer ,current form etc.
    i thought i would apply the same to AW so have gone through Southwell Card.
    5-25. Newstead Abbey 16-1
    7-00. Royal Cosmic 20-1
    7-30. Cold Harbour 7-1
    8-30. Love Your Work 6-1
    might have a silly ew l15 for fun.
    as a footnote in the 6-30 Borsdane Wood was miles ahead of everything else in my scoring system but did not qualify under the 5-1+ rule.

  9. Hi Gordon
    TIP TOP is a name i have given to Number one

    ARUBA is a name i have given to Number two and in both cases started putting them up on the 11th of September and again like Elite they are both 20 odd years old so be very wary for they may flop both had a good start till the rains came so i am being careful, for now.

    Tip Top today had potentialy 4 bets what with the short prices and the going at Hexham decided not to play, one came close to putting up was orioninverness but the morning price of 11/4 now just looked out to 10/3 so hopefuly correct decission.

    So both methods are unproven at the moment, said the other day that Jamie Osboune made a comment a couple of months ago, which prompted me to dig the methods out of my brain again, so watched them for 4 to 6 weeks and on the 11th September put the bets on RTP after looking good again over that period.

    Anyone wishing to back them only small stakes.

    Colin

    1. Everytime i see Aruba reminds me of shooting stars for some reason “Eranu” and “Uvavu”
      Pointless post lol

      1. Aruba from years ago was an old companies name of their computer programme, who i used to work for and it always stuck with me, sadly over 30 years ago where does time go.
        Colin

  10. On the Lambourn front Jamie Snowden says that Our Reward, 2.25 Fontwell, is fancied at the weights unless it is very soft.

  11. Not very inspiring day punting wise:

    2.00. Ascot. win only Herculean
    2.35. Ascot. win only Just Hubert
    6.45. Dun. win only Fort Myers.

    Based on speed but as they are short prices doubles and trebles and singles only an option…Gd luck if playing.

  12. Superb that Josh
    Cruised, some top jumps aswel
    Can take Soupy Soups out aswel tho mate eh. Wud never back a horse being backed up that quick for a long enough chase, but he was still battling all the way in 2nd, never catching mind

    1. Cheers Ryan. Yep he’s run well but worth taking on at price. He did get outpaced and he’s bumped into one with more in hand. Nice to get top two beat, as much satisfaction in that as winner. Hes jumped so well last twice and does travel. Prob keen enough there also but that is him. Didn’t stop him. Pleased with that.

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