Members Daily Post: 03/10/19 (complete:9.17)

write up+ Chase tip x1,Section 2 (complete), test zone, comp winners

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/96, 34p +46.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

4.10 Warwick  – CHASMA – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365/Lad/WH/Coral) 2nd 6/1, decent run, ‘best of the rest’ – annoying she could never get upsides the fav, but no shock he’s won and credit to Dicky who’s made sure to hit the front in good time and he hasn’t had to battle another rival. He’s found for pressure. I lived in hope he may idle but alas he didn’t.

that’s all for today, as of 08.46, write up…

Chasma is having her third start for the Skeltons and they appear to have found some improvement, esp given that LTO was a career best RPR of 118. I’m hoping they may improve on their 12/33,18p, +12 stats here when teaming up in handicap chases. She just looks solid, and I can’t say that about many of the others. 

She travels well and is a superb jumper, and there could be more to come. LTO she bumped into one, Anteros, despite his age, finally transferring his hurdles ability (mid/high 120s horse) to fences. The race also turned into a bit of a sprint and Heskin out-rode Harry I think, not that it mattered. Still, she wasn’t stopping. Anteros hacked up again on his next start. She’s a strong traveller and could well appreciate the pace they’ll go at this C3 level. The yard are in some sort of form also. I thought she was entitled to be shorter here, and second fav….

I can’t have For Good Measure at his price- he’s a monkey – he really didn’t want to fight LTO and was out-battled by Treacle Tart. I think he’s well handicapped and if he had her attitude, he’d have beaten her. But 9/4 isn’t a price to be diving into one who has a question in a battle. It could be he doesn’t have to fight and can just glide into the lead, he does respond for pressure, and if there’s no horse anywhere near him, he’d win well. He is the right fav on the strength of his form but the type i’ll happily take on over time. He did have a hard race also, only 9 days ago. 

The two unexposed chasers…

Dentley De Mee… well he could take this but has a few questions – i’m guessing a bit as to fitness and i’m educated guessing as to whether he will stay – I’m not convinced, but there’s a chance he could improve for it. Nick Williams is 0/15, 3p in handicaps at the track in the last 5 years, 0/10,2p over fences – given the questions I was happy to leave at 4s but wont be shocked if, now aged 6, he steps forward. Having a better jockey on may help bring about plenty of improvement also. With questions/unknowns over fitness and stamina, that makes 4s short enough for me. 

Molly Childers…she could step forward this year but always seems hit a flat spot, inc around here over fences, before staying on. I’m not 100% as to her attitude when under the pump either but I could be reading too much into her head-carriage under pressure having watched a few of her races back – the CP are not there for show. She needs more I think and again, i’m guessing a bit as to fitness. She has placed after a break and the yard are in form, but 11/2 or so again seemed tight given my concerns.  Again, I won’t be shocked if she stays on well and goes close, but I wanted bigger. 

I don’t want to be with anything outside the top 4 in the market. I’m taking on 3 unexposed/more lightly raced chasers, all with questions- always a dilemma when you don’t like the price- either leave the race (I could improve in that regard) or make a case for another, which i’ve done. Time will tell whether that’s the correct call. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 4/23,12p, +12.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

JUMPS

Warwick

3.40 –

Stony Stream (all Hc’s,micro -dist) 14,30  w2 I3 G3 4/1 (S1 if 11.00+ BFSP) 

Eva’s Oskar (m LTO) w1 H1 I3 12/1 WON 12/1 > 11/2 

4.10 – Electron Bleu (m LTO) 33/1 

4.45 – Passing Dream (m class and age) w2 H3 I1 G3 13/2 S4  S1  2nd 12.5 BFSP 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister

2.00 Warw – Chance A Tune (m2, 16/1< guide) 5/2 2nd

3.05 Warw – Ballymoy (me, 16/1< guide) 4/5 2nd

4.10 Warw – Belmount (m1) 17/2 3rd 12/1

 

Jockey Angles 2019/2020

4.10 Warw – Viens Chercher (17/2< guide) 12/1 DNQ

4.10 Warw – Irish Octave (25/1<) 9/2 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Note:-

-Results Update… there’s a new results post… click the ‘results’ tab at the top of the blog.

-I’ll wrap up Nick’s results in here for 2019 to end Sept on Thursday.

-Sat Trends… there’s one 16+ runner C2 handicap from Ascot i’ll try and find some pointers for- The Challenge Cup

-Don’t forget there’s updated posts in the Micro Monday and Tracker Tuesday tabs if you haven’t flicked through those

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Sept Tipping Comp Winners

Well I can only see two have declared their results… ?? I think the winners below are as follows… but if you think your ROI or Profit was greater in Sept, do shout….

1st – Warren B with the biggest ROI to BFSP… 6/24, +23.86 points, +99.41% ROI (£30 cash money) 

2nd – Mike (Mickeydee) with the biggest profit… 5/65, +40.94 points, +63% ROI (£20 cash money) 

I’ll wait today to see if there are any disputes etc and sort out prizes on Friday.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. I`ve had a crack at the 16:10, but, let me remind you I`m not that confident on these midweek races.
    MOLLY CHILDERS 1/2 pt win @ 6/1 gen
    DENTLEY DE MEE 1/2 pt win @5/1 Sky, 4/1 gen

    MOLLY CHILDERS
    Both of these I feel will win at some point during the “Winter” season, MC is always there or thereabouts and with the tongue strap and the cheek pieces back on I believe they may feel they have their best chance of a “pot” early on. We all know G-soft at Warwick will be just that, so, as she has been around on this sort of going then the 6/1 for me is value.
    DENTLEY DE MEE
    DDMee is a second season chaser, who may yet get a crack at a Class 2 Hcp chse, but, looked a bit out of sorts lto at Haydock in April, this step up to 3 mile and the useful JJ ONeill jnr on board could be the difference today, the price I had him at was 4/1, so, he is just value at 5`s if you can get it, if not 4`s is ok in this tricky race that the bookies will be cautious about pricing, (the over round is already 115%).

    As always, hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select tomorrow/today!

  2. I am off to Ascot on Friday for racing and beer and any pointers would be very welcome – for the racing, that is! All bets will be placed before I go at 10 am.

    If anyone has not received a reply from Gavin Priestley for his AW systems, it is probably because you have a BT email address. If you contact him he will send you the link.

      1. Robinshill ran well for a long way and certainly one for the notebook, Sir Hoodie a nice win.
        results so far:
        selections 16 , wins 3, places 2, staked 32 pts. returns 55 pts, up 23 pts

  3. Thanks to those that helped out with Newcastle last night – down on the night but good experience under the lights. Had the one winner myself but only at 2/1 & ew on the Burke 2 & marks cupacoco at 25/1
    Thanks again

  4. 0/4 -4 be So
    Lingfield
    2:45 almahha

    Warwick
    2:35 torn and frayed

    Chelmsford
    5:30 call me Katie
    6:30 baptism

    These would be my tipping comp selections

  5. No bets for me this afternoon but will be back about 5.30 with tonight’s AW. Travel back home tomorrow and should arrive at around 1.30 PM. Will make a post shortly after.

  6. COLINS BETS
    3.50 Lingfield Seprani 9/2
    7.00 Chelmsford Air Force Amy 9/2
    ORIGINAL
    3.50 Lingfield Seprani 9/2
    7.00 Chelmsford Air Force Amy 9/2
    Colin

  7. TIP TOP
    3.40 Warwick Mister Universum 9/2
    7.15 Wolverhampton About Glory 5/1
    ARUBA
    3.15 Lingfield Amaan 2/1
    Colin

  8. Late back from the beach, but it is the last day and my partner likes to get her money’s worth! I’ll put this one up for now but will be back with more I’m expecting by about 6.15

    Chel’ 6.30 Douglas Fir ……… 7.0 No Hcp

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