Members Daily Post: 02/10/19 (complete09.40)

Write ups…Test tip x1, Main Tip x1, Late Update/Geegeez Speed/Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/95, 33p +47.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.45 Bangor-  Day Of Roses – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) UP 8/1..drift told the story, has moved into it well enough but not much in tank from two out – stays further so will have to assume ground, or maybe he’s now out of sorts, so I’ve got that wrong. Proved correct in taking on the fav given his inexperience. He needs softer/further on that evidence, or a more galloping track. Not a strong race. The winner was PU PU PU PU after 60+ days or more so unlikely I was landing on him at 5s, and he was 11. 

as of 08.41, write up at bottom of the post. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 4/23,12p, +12.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

2.05 Hunt – Land League – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) 2nd, ran ok but well beaten…sadly Elkstone had one of those days where he settled, switched off and ran to his best. He’s pretty smart at that level when he does. Back to his last winning mark he did show some signs of promise LTO after a short break. He was 3/27 in chases, so he’s not one to trust following up necessarily. 

as of 09.07, that’s all for tips, write ups to follow at very bottom of post… 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

NOTE: I appear to have missed off Geegeez Speed ratings last night, apols, all correct as of 08.14

FLAT

Nottingham  (Inspect 0800)

3.25 –

Fantasy Keeper (3yo+,micro runs) H1 I3 5/1 WON 4/1 

Orange Blossom (all Hc’s,m age) ES+ G3 22/1 S3A

Zapper Cass (3yo+) G1 25/1  S6  UP

3.55 –

Mrs Hoo (all Hc’s,m’s age and TJC) ES+ 33/1 S3A

Deinonychus (3yo+) 9/1 

Firewater (all Hc’s,m age) ES+ 11/1 S3A

Dark Devil (all Hc’s) ES+ 10/1 S3A

4.25 – Kensington Art (all Hc’s,m dist and age) w2 ES+ 12/1 S3A

4.55 – Moonraker (3yo+,m dist and runs) I1

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JUMPS

Bangor

12.45 – Emissaire (nov HcCh) I3 15/2 

1.15 –

Cousin Oscar (HcH) H3 G1 9/2 UP

Prince Khurram (HcH,m runs) 15/2 

1.45 – Onurbike (m class and runs) w1 H3 G3 5/1  WON 6/1 

 

Huntingdon

2.05 – Kapsize (m class) 5/1 

3.10 – Phoenix Rock (nov HcCh) w1 H3 I1 G1 S4 10/3 3rd 

4.10 – Global Anchor (all Hc’s,HcH) ES+ 9/1 S3A 3rd

4.40 – Transpennine Star (all Hc’s,HcH,m class) w1 ES+H1 I3 4/1 S3A#  UP

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister

2.15 B – Nye Bevan – (m2, 16/1< guide) 6/1 3rd

Longsdon (12/1<) 

2.05 H – Kapsize 5/1 UP

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

3.10 H – Brigadier Bob 13/2 WON 13/2>9/1

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

2.05 H – Elkstone (17/2< guide) WON 9/1>6/1

1.45 B – Itsamanslife (25/1<) 13/2 2nd

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

A video for you…not from me… but from Simon Nott’s excellent ‘Betting People’ series… there’s a superb catalogue of interviews if you’ve never checked them out. And this isn’t me endorsing Star Sports, (I don’t have an account as yet) albeit I do hear the like laying a bet! 🙂 

In any case, Chris packs some useful snippets into this 15 mins in my opinion, which you may find useful. And it would appear he uses Geegeez Gold>>>, along with three other tools (timeform/proform- both pricey enough imo, and the RP) 

 

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Tips write ups…

Day of Roses…

I thought if he returned to the level of his win or his second here two starts ago – runs with solid RPRs which make his mark look workable – he’d go more like a 2/1 shot here. It could be he’s now out of form but his run LTO came within 5 days of a big effort, and they were more aggressive on him. It could be he likes being held up and coming through horses also. He’s got form on soft over hurdles. I thought IF the fav fluffed his lines, he was the one most likely to benefit..

The fav is clearly in the ‘could be anything’ category and I doubt fitness will be an issue. However he is inexperienced over fences and he’s now a 7 race maiden – he’s by Scorpion also and some of his off-spring can be ‘tricky’. It could be i’ll regret taking him on -he will bounce out, jump like a stag, power home and make 11/10 look a gift. But he does have to go and do it, and I thought the selection was overpriced.

Itsamanslife is interesting to a point but i’m simply guessing over fitness which is never ideal for 5/1 shots. The yard can ready them but i’m not sure as to the level of his form.

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Land League…

This is his first run after a wind op – I’m not sure it’s his first- but I found it interesting that they bring him back to a track the yard do well at and where the horse has run well over hurdles. He does also arrive here in form and he’s ‘unexposed’ in handicap chases – which ultimately is what swung it against Gentleman Moore, who’s solid.

I think he may appreciate this track more than Market Rasen as he looks a unit of a horse and should be much better over fences than hurdles. He has been tapped for toe the last twice, before staying on very well – having watched his last two runs back it’s noticeable what a decent jumper he is, and when under pressure. If he’s anywhere near the fav turning for home here, I think he’ll have too much for him and I did think it was between the two of them.

He’s another who’s got some decent RPRs in his locker, 112s the last twice, and he’s hit higher previously, making a mark of 107 look workable. That’s one way of trying to assess whether a horse is well handicapped. Another is of course how their recent races have been working out/what horses they’ve been finishing in and around. 2 starts back he chased home the 117 rated Northern Beau. The horse in 3rd that day has won since. Solid, esp in the context of this race. LTO wasn’t as strong but they omitted all the fences up the home straight which really didn’t suit him at all. I suspect he may have won had they jumped them all.

I think he tries, and responds to pressure. His jumping should be an asset, there should be more to come over fences, and his yard had a winner recently. I thought he could make 7/2 look decent in the context of this race.

The fav is a danger but true ‘summer jumping’ form and this should be ‘winter good’, given the rain they’ve had. He may not enjoy that but in any case is now open to attack from younger legs.

I couldn’t have the rest. Longsdon’s has too many questions for me at 5s. He wasn’t in form over fences in France before coming over here, and hasn’t done much on his first two runs for the yard. He now goes chasing, headgear back on, wind ops etc – he may go well, but hard to know what form he’s in, and it may take him time to acclimatise.

I can’t have the rest for various reasons. If Land League is here to run his race, I suspect connections would be disappointed if he didn’t beat this lot.

There’s a chance they are more aggressive on him, knowing he just gallops.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Oct Sel.
    1/5
    Todays sel.
    3.10 H Joey Steel 12/1 ew Watching Brief 14/1 ew
    2.05 H Kapsize 9/1
    2.25 N Isayalittleprayer 33/1 ew
    3.25 N Orange Blossom 12/1 ew
    2.55 N Red Jasper 14/1 ew
    5.40 K Lipslikecherries 25/1 ew
    6.40 K Rousayan 14/1 ew

    Mike

    1. Hi Mickey,

      Your results in the tipping comp have been impressive recorded to BFSP. would you recommend backing your selection to BFSP or best odds? given you are recommending e/w now i was curious. I haven’t followed your selections yet so have no idea how they compare

      1. Hi. My selections are very speculative and were based on the tipping comp as the TC has taken a sabbatical for Oct I have continued with it..for now..but the ew is for my own betting purposes. It has long losing runs so I would be careful what you back and how much you put on. I’m not a good role model to follow as I do it for my own entertainment. It seems successful with the TC but don’t dive in straight away.
        Good luck.

        Mike

  2. 0/1 -1 bfsp

    Huntington
    4:10 stonemadforspeed 11/1

    Kempton
    6:10 jellystone 19/1

    Newcastle
    7:25 sailing 7/2

  3. Do we have a Tim Vaughan novice handicap chase runner on Wednesday? Or have I simplified the micro?

    3.10 Huntingdon, Adherence. Below 16/1 in most places.

    Still under test – Karl Burke at Newcastle – 6.55 Emaraty Hero; 7.25 Newcastle Robotique Danseur.

    1. hmm, appears you’ve missed out the vital bit! 🙂 It’s always best to post if unsure as sometimes I do miss them and it’s appreciated, but I haven’t this time… my angle looks at his handicap Novice chasers that have had 1+ run in hadicap | chases – those with 0 hncp chase runs, (and adherence is yet to run in any chase) are 3/56, 14p, -31 SP … those running in novice handicap chases on chase debut, 3/50, 12p, -25 …
      Josh

      1. I thought that I was.

        I will track performance with and without the one such run and see how it goes?

        1. Hmm, well given those stats I wouldn’t bother personally but up to you. Unless he changes his methods, I can’t see why those figures would improve – not exactly a strong stats pool with which to track/build on I wouldn’t have thought.
          Josh

  4. experiment day 3.
    Huntingdon.
    1-35. Maria Magdalena 13-2 bv
    Nottingham.
    3-25. Madrinho 16-1 wh/bv
    3-55. C Note 10-1 b365/wh
    4-55. Somewhere Secret 8-1 b365

  5. Morning josh
    Just a reminder for Newcastle- no problem if you haven’t the time, I am at Hexham on Friday which is probably more your thing.
    I know warren said he’d have a look & if any other all weather experts could help I’d be grateful
    I’ll be having a look at Gavins guide this afternoon
    Many thanks in advance
    Harry

    1. So if I was going today I would be having a couple of quid on these
      6:25 smugglers creek
      6:55 court of appeal e/w
      7:25 sailing
      8:25 carlovian
      I’m no expert just enjoy the weather.
      Have a great day.

      1. I hear a good word for Rockley Point in the 8.25.

        If they are a decent price I would back the Karl Burke runners I have listed above.

        Good luck.

    2. I haven’t had time Harry, sorry. My analysis brain is now frazzled out for the day, and if I did look I wouldn’t do a very good job!
      Hexham on Friday should be more my thing, and I should have time/the drive to look then, no problem.
      Have a great day out. I’ll leave you in Warren’s capable hands!
      Josh

      1. Showing with me Titus but won’t open up and they have taken it off the MY BETS list. Plenty others. Cheers

        Mike

        1. Yes you are correct Mike. It is showing on a race card but won’t open when placing a bet and not in My Bookies.

    1. yep – most of them would usually have been in the tipping comp which i’ve binned for now, as only 8-10 or so were playing regularly – thankfully a handful of them continuing above. Hopefully a few winners dotted around.

  6. Hi Harry. I’m backing these at Newcastle tonight, so lay or play 🙂

    6.25 Blindingly

    7.55 Sophia Maria

    8.25 Cuppacoco

    Have a great night.

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