Micro Monday

VIDEO : Looking at the youngest chaser in the race, and how they perform…

Youngest Chaser In The Race

Something a bit different today. In the video below I take a look at how the youngest chaser in the race gets on (handicap chases/2m7f+/C4+). 

It turns out 28% of all races are won by such types. 

73% of races are won by the youngest chaser, or the horse within 2 years of the youngest. 

While there are no ‘micro angles’ to follow systematically the video below starts with a look at some sort of ‘starting point’, which you may find interesting. 

I won’t be tracking any of the below in the Test Zone, but i’ve noted the info for my own punting/tipping purposes, and you’re free to do the same. 



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5 Responses

  1. Not watched it all through yet, so…….using the criteria you set at 5:30 without the age restrictions and age position set at youngest it looks like a bad idea to implement your age restrictions at not 9yo+ and 10yo+ as 4yo+ and 5yo+ have far superior S/R and decent sample sizes. I guess this depends on where you start and how you rebuild as you go but I’m only getting 2940 bets with this so it’s time to press play and see where I and indeed yourself go with this!!

    1. Not sure I get what you’re saying but yep watch it all through 🙂 it isn’t meant to be a systematic system to follow, more just some interesting research etc
      those age restrictions are for the race type – not the age of horse if that makes sense- so there will still be 9/10 year olds+ in the samples but I didn’t want to look at Veteran races etc as obviously the ‘youngest’ horse in a vets race will be 10, and up to ‘2 years older’ will cover 12 year olds etc, so would skew the data/idea behind ‘youngest’

      If nothing else I thought it interesting that 28% of races in said conditions are won by ‘the youngest’ and 73% by the youngest/within 2 years of youngest.

      You can do what you please with the base set of data or idea 🙂

      1. Not sure which bit you didn’t get haha!! I get the age restrictions, but using 4yo+ & 5yo+ also gets rid of the veteran races and keeps the races with the significantly higher S/R and sample sizes. I did look at discounting stiff fences on possible inexperience with the younger legs, although a lower S/R it was basically just Cheltenham and Haydock. After that it does seem tricky to find areas that stand out which is a shame because I totally get what your saying about younger legs and all that, it’s just a bugger to narrow it down a little more!! I’ll keep it saved for now and have a poke around with it again soon, thanks for waking up my weary Monday mind!

        1. ha no problem – oh I spent a fair while trying to poke and prod to see if any logical systematic ways in as such, but I was struggling! It was worthwhile research I think for points touched on above.

          Oh with you now! …. well yes, that’s just a case of which way you build it – I put those restrictions in at the start knowing the races I wanted to exclude… yep if you take the main ‘system’ and simply remove the Age restrictions, then ‘breakdown’ by age restrictions, you’ll see nearly all the quals in 4yo+ and 5yo+ races anyway, so in that sense fairly immaterial.


  2. Thanks for the research Josh, it is appreciated and really does look as though this could be a starting point as far as looking at the shape of a race, there are more factors to take into account obviously, but, would be good to narrow things down before attacking a race in earnest!

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