Members Daily Post: 30/09/19 (complete:8.47)

Test tip x1 + write up, Section 1 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Bath

3.05 – Mandocello (micro age) I3 9/2 

 

Hamilton

2.20 –

Summer Daydream (m runs) 11/2 

Conga (3yo+,m TJC) 7/2 

Yes You (m runs) I3 9/2 

4.30 – Autumn Flight (all Hc’s,m class) w2 ES+H1 I1 G3 11/10 S1 S3A#  WON Evens 

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/94, 33p +48.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 4/22,11p, +13.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

4.45 Roscommon – ALLARDYCE – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/BV) (9/1 betfs/pp/unib) UP 5/1 – race ending error really down the back, guessing at one, you can’t do that at the best of times, let alone in that ground – energy sapping. He was ahead of the eventual winner at that point, suggesting they’d judged the pace correctly. Shame, as he was travelling well to my eyes, but that’s the game. Read the main dangers well enough – a shame winner wasn’t tad bigger, but aged 9, 0/6,0p chasing, first run of season on that ground – 9/2 – one of those. He’s only just got there, i’ll live with it. 

as of 08.30, write up…

There’s a chance this one is just out of sorts but at the prices, and given the oppo also have plenty of questions, I thought i’d roll the dice. The key reason for doing so is the Heavy ground – his best RPR (a 129) came when hacking up in a heavy ground maiden hurdle and he’s yet to finish out of the places in heavy. This is his 9th handicap run, 5th over fences, and it’s his first in heavy. Using non-handicap form, esp in maidens/novices is always tricky when it comes to determining going preferences, as many just have the class and ‘get away with it’, but want a sounder surface. However at the prices I think there’s enough evidence to suggest he will relish conditions here. He won a 18 runner beginners chase at Cork last November, a race that’s worked out ok. He may have been lucky there as Poker Party was looming up before falling – however coming second to him would still have been very good form. That was with a bit of cut, on yielding. His last run wasn’t great but it could be that 19f on good took him out of his comfort zone. It’s a question of whether he can get back to his best. I think he’d go close if he did, and with any luck the going may make the difference. He should race up there I think, tracking any pace, no excuses.

Of the rest… Well Sir Bob and Russian Bill have the most interesting profiles and I can see why they are at the top of the market. I wouldn’t want to be with them at the odds, but clearly won’t be shocked if they have too much. There should be more to come from them over fences. However both have fitness to prove and the odd question also and I was happy to take on at the prices. Were Meade’s a bit bigger, I may have been tempted in.

I didn’t want to be with anything else for one reason or another.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

None.

UPDATE 

Having somewhat been the ultimate curse on Nick, this will be the final day of ‘Nick’s tips’ within the members’ posts. Any future musings from Nick will revert back to the comments below. He’ll post his thoughts today/tomorrow. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. A quick experiment for a Monday morning, ignoring current form and just concentrating on race going, class , distance and 5/1+ it threw these up
    Less Of That BATH 15:05 @33/1
    David’s Beauty BATH 15:35 @20/1(was Seamster until n/r)
    Savitar BATH 16:10 @15/2
    Famous Dynasty BATH 16:40 @66/1
    Spanish Star BATH 17:10 @25/1
    i’ll be interested to see how they go.

    1. a winner and a place not to shabby i’ll paper trade these for a couple of weeks and see where they go if anywhere.

  2. NUMBER ONE
    3.05 Bath Capriolette BOG 3/1
    4.40 Bath Good Impessions BOG 7/1
    NUMBER TWO
    4.40 Bath Good Impression BOG 7/1
    Colin

  3. Hi guys

    I just thought I’d outline my future plans. When Josh asked me to post ‘officially’ it seemed like the logical next step given what happened last year. However at some point not quite sure exactly when over the past 6 months this has simply felt like a chore. I am not even sure if it had anything to do with the change it could have just been incidental. I am no way disheartened by results since its the nature of result since that’s just part of gambling and I would take the past 24 months every 2 years hands down however long and short of it this is a hobby of mine and I am bored of spending 60-80% of my free time looking at the cards. Hobbies are meant to be fun and it hasn’t been. I have tried cutting back or taking a few weeks off and that hasn’t changed things so going forward I will be back to posting tips back in comments but the reality is I wouldn’t be surprised if I barely post any over the next few months. I don’t want to say anything concrete since it will very much depend but going forward if I don’t post assume no tips (assuming anyone still follows). I am still betting and will be on the site but just won’t be contributing. Nothing set in stone so maybe in 3 weeks I will get my enthusiasm back so we will just have to see.

    1. It’s a cruel game this, and often thankless. Hope you get your enthusiasm back and into winning ways soon. Take care.

    2. My flat tips have been awful Nick, so, can see why you have felt the need to constantly take a break/are not feeling like it is a hobby anymore. This flat season has nearly been my undoing, all the good work i did over the winter was nearly undone with a trip to Haydock in June where a lads day out turned into a nightmare when, instead of enjoying the day out I turned into the “tipster” and had to give tips to a minibus full of fellas who were looking for me to fill their pockets by the end of the day with bookies cash!? Needless to say I picked no winners from the seven races on offer and ended up paying for a round of drinks as the head honcho said on my behalf if i didn`t pick one winner I would get a round in, that was how confident he was of me picking at least one winner!! I have now severed that relationship after being nearly £300 down with the bookies and a £100 bill for the drinks to go into the mix also!! I can understand where you are coming from as the flat always seems so in your face as in the amount of races that are on offer from basically lunchtime till 9p.m. , you only just get the studying out of the way, before you are into the day after..I hope I can call on you for the advice you and Josh and Colin gave me back when I first started, it was invaluable and if more people took note of the information from you, Josh and some of the others, they would be richer in the fact of knowledge and in the pocket also, hopefully, like I say that knowledge will still be available to us all on here in the future Nick?

  4. Nick
    Sounds like a sound move and my humble advice would take the rest of the year off and just paper trade or back them yourself and hopefully come back refreshed and putting the winners up again on RTP, from January.
    Do not know how you come up with your bets, have the feeling that certain trainers play apart anyway that is bye the bye, and your selection process could well come bouncing back after the blip, there is hidden pressures when putting bets up and they start losing and i certainly have made many mistakes with Colins bets this year.
    All the best
    Colin

    1. If you can’t access google then it’s (total return/total staked)-total staked to show total return or total return/total staked to show total profit 🙂

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