Members Daily Post: 01/10/19 (complete:08.12)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/94, 33p +48.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 4/22,11p, +13.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

Not much to report from Monday’s tip. UP 5/1, well supported – he made a howler down the back, a race ending error really, guessing at one. You can’t do that at the best of times, let alone in that ground – energy sapping. He was ahead of the eventual winner at that point, suggesting they’d judged the pace correctly. Shame, as he was travelling well to my eyes, but that’s the game. Read the main dangers well enough – a shame the winner wasn’t tad bigger, but aged 9, 0/6,0p chasing, first win since 2015, first run of season on that ground – 9/2 – one of those. He’s only just got there, i’ll live with it. The yard were red hot and if he’d had a winning record fresh, I may have considered more. Meade’s record with horses after a break could be better also. He was miles clear at the top of HRB ratings too. 

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2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

FLAT

Ayr

1.50 – Abushamah (micro class) I3 G3 9/1 

3.20 – Chaplin Bay (m class) w2 I1 9/1 S6  UP

3.50 –

Explain (m class) I1 10/1 S6 

Cardaw Lily (m class) I3 G3 14/1 

4.20 – Fuente (m runs) 10/1 

4.50 –

Banksea (m runs) 50/1 

Iron Mike (m runs) w2 G3 11/1 

5.20 – Muraadef (m class) 16/1 

 

JUMPS

Sedgefield

2.00 –

Game Risk (m going if soft) 9/1 

Bailey’s Artist (all Hc’s) ES+ 14/1 S3A UP

Hey Bob (m going if soft) H3 I1 G3 10/1 S1 S4 WON 10/1>15/2 (8.92 BFSP) 

3.30 –

I’m To Blame (HcH) w2 H1 I1 G1 15/8 S4  2nd 

Raise A Spark (m runs) ES+ G3 9/1 S3A  S1 UP 

Prancing Oscar (m runs) w2 H3 I3 8/1 

Snookered (m age) w1 H3 I3 G3 9/4 S4 WON 9/4>13/8 

4.00 –

Inca Gold (m runs) 10/1 

No Such Number (m runs) 33/1 

 

Southwell

3.40 –

Mountain Ranger (all Hc’s) 50/1 

Nathan’s Pride (HcH) I3 14/1 

Superefficient (m age) ES+ H3 G3 5/1 S3A# UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainer 

E Lavelle

2.40 South – Manofthemountain (14/1<) 5/4

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

4.00 Sed – Murphy’s Law (11/1<)  4/6 

 

LTO winner starting points 

4.00 Sed – Murphys Law 4/6 

 

LTO winners (trainers) 

2.40 South – Trumps Benefit 7/2 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

PLEASE NOTE….

1. Nick’s returned to tipping in the comments. You can read a comment from him in Monday’s comments. 

2. I’ve re-ordered the structure above- nothing too groundbreaking! I’ve moved my tips up to the top, then the stats content (sections 2/3) and then ‘general messages’ etc. 

3. TIPPING COMP

There will be NO COMP  for October. Entries appear to have dried up this month and it doesn’t seem that popular, which is a shame. Cash prizes clearly not enough of a draw. 

If you think you’re in contention for September’s competition, post your results below, and I’ll sort out the winners/prizes in next couple of days. 

If you posted regularly in the Tipping Comp posts and wish to continue, please feel free to do so in the comments below. 

4.Results updates

I’ll sort this in the next few days, updates for Sept/year to date, for all sections in Sept. 

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There’s a new Micro Monday post, inc a video, which you can find HERE>>>

And don’t forget Paul Ferguson’s guest post HERE>>>

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I think that’s it. 

Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Just to give everyone heads up, BALLYART at Bangor (13:45) on Wednesday has the same owners as LUCKOFTHEDRAW, not quite as classy, but, looks like another Twister plot on here, as he has declared STD on board already, keep an eye on the early odds for those who can get them!!

    Stewart 30/09/19 8:22 PM Reply


    • I think ‘Big Nige’ is the owner, they are his colours. He usually likes to sell if he can, provided they stay in yard, surprised no one fancied buying Luckofthedraw unless he’s not for sale. Generally if they are he obv wants them to run well. At this time of year I think it’s best assuming they are all fit and ready to run, then a case of profile/conditions etc.
      I don’t think the booking of Sam is significant. He’s effectively stable jockey now. Well first refusal.
      Of more interest is when the likes of Newland also have horses in the race and he may have had a choice. Yet to look.
      Not sure it’s meant to stop raining anytime soon so paddles at the ready haha. Hopefully not too many abandoned
      Josh

      Josh 30/09/19 10:07 PM Reply


    • I agree with the STD comment, as you say, just checked Big Nige is the owner, the main point I was trying to make is Bally is not as classy as LOTD, but, will be fit and raring to go and with a jockey already booked at the three day stage it shows they are aiming to run at the very least.

      Stewart 01/10/19 6:38 AM Reply


      • indeed, but he has potential. 0/7,1p in career but always interesting when they never keep them over hurdles for long. His best run, a close second, came in a heavy ground 3m Chepstow novice hurdle- which ‘could’ suggest he’s just a slogger- if so, no great shock that his first run over fences, 2m5f around Kempton on Good, didn’t really suit! Bangor, if it’s heavy, may be more suitable, albeit tight enough in places. They have raced him up there also. Def on for the shortlist.
        And yep, I think Sept/Oct you just assume they are ready before getting to work. Hopefully a few runners line up.

        Josh 01/10/19 8:45 AM Reply


        • Dropped to 5 declared, that’s me out, disappointed..

          Stewart 01/10/19 1:22 PM Reply


  • September comp result
    6wins/24bets +23.86
    Roi 99.41%

    Warren bottomley 30/09/19 10:39 PM Reply


  • Sept Comp Result
    5 wins/65 +40.94 ROI 62.98%

    Well tipped Warren, sad to see the tipping comp go, fun while it lasted. Lack of good racing during the week is the reason for it being quiet plus a bit of crossover time of the year Sept/Oct.

    Mike

    mickeydee 30/09/19 11:24 PM Reply


    • Yes it’s a shame. Just started doing it again. I’ll post mine on the main page for full scrutiny.

      Warren Bottomley 01/10/19 12:04 AM Reply


      • I’m sure it will be back at some point 🙂 But sadly, for most of Sept, there’s only been around 10 players I think, and not worth it for that. I thought it would be more popular but alas not. Maybe once the jumps has settled in, there will be more interesting from November onwards.

        Josh 01/10/19 8:42 AM Reply


  • experiment day 2, as mentioned yesterday i’m going to paper trade these at 1pt ew for a while after a good start. up 15pts ( winner settled at 10-1 as i did have a small bet at that price after the n/r’s)
    Ayr.
    1-50. The Stalking Moon 9-1
    3-20. Chaplin Bay 12-1
    3-50. Dark Crystal 14-1
    5-20. Can can sixty two 25-1
    Sedgfield.
    2-00. Hey Bob 14-1

    Martin Whittle 01/10/19 5:27 AM Reply


    • 1 winner and 1 place again, staked 10 pts returns 21.5 pts after 2nd day staked 20 pts returns 46.5 pts, i did back Hey Bob as it was a qualifier from section 2 for me 3pts win and got 14-1 with B365

      Martin Whittle 01/10/19 5:55 PM Reply


  • Hi josh & calling the all weather experts!!
    I am going to Newcastle tomorrow night under the lights which I am looking forward to
    I’ll put a reminder on tomorrow morning but any help – selections/through the card – would be so welcome
    Still love the site!!
    Thank you

    harrys 01/10/19 8:18 AM Reply


    • hmmm, i’m not sure you want my thoughts on Newcastle to be honest! I’ve got a chase or two to look at first but will try and have a flick through.

      Josh 01/10/19 9:22 AM Reply


    • I do like a bit of all alweather action. I’ll have a look later on this evening. I’m no expert though…..

      Warren Bottomley 01/10/19 4:11 PM Reply


      • Thanks warren appreciate that

        harrys 01/10/19 4:30 PM Reply


  • Sedgfield
    4:00 instant replay

    Ayr
    4:20 redarna

    These would of been my tipping comp srlections.

    warren Bottomley 01/10/19 8:28 AM Reply


  • Nothing from me for this afternoon, agree with mickey, turf flat is on it’s ass and jumps/AW has yet to really get started. Still Kempton to go at, so will be back at 4.30.

    Tim Hanson 01/10/19 8:46 AM Reply


    • Sorry I’m late. 2 at Kemper’s for tonight….

      Kemp’ 6.10 Trecco Bay………….. 11.0 No Hcp
      Kemp’ 7.40 Golden Force………. 11.0 No Form HCP

      Also like Shining in the 7.40 but is a little more exposed than the selection. Probably win now but I’ll stick with Golden Force.

      Tim Hanson 01/10/19 5:19 PM Reply


      • cheers Tim, i’d post any future updates as a new comment if that’s ok, as they’ll come up fresh at the bottom, rather than being buried 🙂 best of luck tonight, as always.

        Josh 01/10/19 5:23 PM Reply


  • Oct tips

    1.50 A Pudding Chare 50/1 ew
    3.50 A Dark Crystal 18/1 ew
    5.20 A Iconic Code 5/1/ Three Castles 11/2

    Mike

    mickeydee 01/10/19 8:54 AM Reply


    • Add one more

      4.20 A Tommy G 10/1 ew

      Mike

      mickeydee 01/10/19 9:49 AM Reply


  • Does anyone know if or where BSP place odds for all placed runners can be found for free?
    Brian

    Brian Wright 01/10/19 10:01 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS and ORIGINAL

    No bets today

    cleafe 01/10/19 10:08 AM Reply


  • NUMBER ONE new name TIP TOP

    5.10 Kempton Swell Song BOG 9/2

    NUMBER TWO new name ARUBA

    No bet today

    Colin

    cleafe 01/10/19 10:11 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin
      How have they been getting on?
      Should we start backing then now?
      Thanks
      Harry

      harrys 01/10/19 11:43 AM Reply


      • Hi Harry
        Tip Top or number one started very well since putting them up live from 11 September to 22 September
        42 bets produced 14 winners and a level stake profit of + 25.125 points, then the rains came and from 23 September to 30 September there were 13 bets no winners so the total from 11 September
        55 bet producing 14 winners for a profit of + 12.125 points.
        Today have given turf racing a swerve and no doubt it will be the same for a few days unless one is a proven heavy ground winner in the past.
        All above is relevant to Aruba or Number two
        12 september to 24 September 20 bets producing 8 winners and a level stake profit + 13.125
        25 September to 30 September 5 bets no winners again rain effected, so the total from 12 September
        25 bets 8 winners + 8.125 points
        Have every faith in both methods again and i will be backing the bets to small stakes from today, it is not for me to say that you should back them it is your decission, but be wary they are not proven again over along period and the methods are over 20 years old and unlike Elite which had kept my eye on for previous 2 years before and not surprised with its performance.
        Jamie Osbourne made a comment couple of months ago on his video and that sparked me into action to relook at the two old methods again, and do feel when the rain stops and the ground starts to dry out then they will perform again, till then it will be the AW were most of the bets will come from.
        Cheers
        Colin

        cleafe 01/10/19 12:42 PM Reply


        • Hi Colin thanks for the comprehensive reply very grateful – I know this is a tricky time of year
          I have always followed the elite bets & Colin’s bets so will keep the faith & will keep following
          Thanks for posting
          Hopefully there might be a few for Newcastle tomorrow night
          Harry

          harrys 01/10/19 12:50 PM Reply


        • Tip Top
          5 winers from the 14 were from the AW do not know from how many bets for if 4 losers on the day then recorded as 4 losers only record winners by name and the course they won on, so have no fear of the AW.
          Prices of the 5 winners 2/1, 8/1, 15/8, 15/2, 2/1.
          Colin

          cleafe 01/10/19 12:54 PM Reply


  • I thought that there were some decent bets today!!!!

    1.50 Ayr, Remmy D;
    5.10 Kempton, Penwood;
    8.10 Kempton, Agent Gibbs.

    We shall see.

    martin colwell 01/10/19 10:40 AM Reply


  • 5.35 Cork Bog War 14/1 e/w
    Looks interesting at the price, back on flat with lowest rating, close 3rd at Ballinrobe, good claimer booked instead of usual jockey, should be ok on the ground GL

    jimmybarker58 01/10/19 11:10 AM Reply


  • Tracker Tuesday post up here>>>

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2019/10/01/tracker-tuesday-3/

    Josh

    Josh 01/10/19 11:13 AM Reply


  • I was getting a bit worried when i saw that Gavin Priestly had an aw guide out.Fortunately our number one aw weapon wasn’t exposed so we can keep shoveling it on K arl’s stable come the AW proper

    gearoid180468 01/10/19 12:02 PM Reply


    • Whilst Southwell has been the the gold mine for Karl Burke in 2019 I am also watching his runners at Newcastle and so hopefully that will develop into something this winter?

      martin colwell 01/10/19 12:22 PM Reply


    • I keep thinking the market will catch up to that very simple approach (I know you’ve a couple of filters to improve), but it doesn’t appear to be just yet! He does seem to know which of his horses will improve for those unique conditions.

      Josh 01/10/19 12:22 PM Reply


  • Agree there Martin,I missed out on a 33/1 2yr old at Newcastle,was on holiday in the Northwest,no sign of Chubnut wandering around a fairyfort.I think there may be a couple of reasons he might stay under the raider,he is never really in red hot form,may have a quiet spell bang in a few winners and go cold again,and the second which Josh alludes to is his runners on the aw are hard to gauge,his 3y olds usually have turf runs of little note and are ignored by the form followers.The market will eventually catch up as it did with Tom Dascombe at Haydock,once we see his appearing regularly in the top 3 its time to bail and move on to the next.when you feel the springs on your arse,its time for a new mattress

    gearoid180468 01/10/19 12:56 PM Reply


  • K5.10 Starchant
    In a class 7 today with an OR of 49
    Previously ran well and came 2nd twice in class 5s in August with a 51 OR and ran quite wide on his races since
    Will definitely have a good chance when getting a plum draw but today’s not brilliant. Bit concerned it may not like Kempton surface too but worth a poke at 8/1 I thought
    Danny

    freezing1 01/10/19 1:04 PM Reply


  • My Tip for today,
    4.20.Ayr. Tommy G. @ 9/1 e/w
    Well handicapped c/d winner.

    yarker 01/10/19 1:04 PM Reply


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