Members Daily Post: 28/08/19 (complete:10.08)

Test tips, x2, Nick’s tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Newmarket Day 3/Cambs stast

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Chester

4.30 – Inclyne (3yo+) w2 H1 I3 7/2 

5.05 – Seeusoon (3yo+) 8/1 

 

Haydock

 

Ripon

3.05 – Count D’orsay (m class) H1 7/2 

4.10 –

Mutamaded (m age) w2 20/1 

Multellie (m class) w1 H1 9/2 

Appointed (m class) G1 9/1 S6 UP

Super Kid (m class) G3 18/1 

 

Newmarket………..None

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JUMPS

Market Rasen

2.50 –

Gars Bar Dine (all Hc’s,m class and deb) ES+ H3  15/8 S3A UP

Very First Time (all Hc’s,m class) ES+ H3 G3 5/1 S3A#  UP

3.25 –

Terry The Fish (m LTO) 14,30 G3 9/1 UP

Bandsman (all Hc’s) w2 ES+ H1 G3 8/1 S3A# (S1 if 11.00+ BFSP) PU

Ratoute Yutty (all Hc’s,m deb) ES+ 8/1 S3A UP

4.00 –

Mohaayed (all Hc’s) ES+ H1 14/1 S3A UP

Azzuri (all Hc’s) w2 ES+ H3 I1 15/2 S3A#  UP

Storm Rising (all Hc’s) ES+ 5/1 S3A  UP

4.35 – Baby Ted (m runs) 16/1 S2A UP

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/94, 33p +48.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+

None, no races of choice.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 4/21,11p, +14.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

3.25 MR –

Luck of The Draw – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/bets/PP) 9/1 (others) WON 9/1 >8/1 (declared 9s, hopefully you got 10s, not sure I can count Betfair Sportsbook and PP as two sep bookies!)

Terry The Fish – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 10/1 (BV/Coral) UP, poor. Never really going after first mile or so. 

that’s all from me, as of 09.24, write ups at the very bottom of the post…

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

3.35 Ripon – Citron Major – 1 point EW – 10/1 (gen) UP, -2

4.00 MR – Definitelyanoscar – 1 point EW – 10/1 (bet365/WH/BV) -2

5.05 Chester – Overhaugh Street – 1 point EW – 7/1 (lad/BV/Coracl) -2

0/6, 0p, -6

that’s all from Nick, as of 09.07

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers 2019

C Longsdon (12/1<)

3.25 MR – Montys Award 3rd

Twister

4.00 MR – Earlofthecotswolds (m3/4 11/2<) 2nd

4.35 MR – Baby Ted (m4, 11/2<) DNQ

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting 

I’ve had a flick through the ‘Fantastic Four’ for this meeting, and you can find these stats HERE>>>

There’s one micro for each, and some notes you can use as a guide. Micro ‘qualifiers’ >>>

Newmarket Day 3

Gosden  (added 09.20)

3.40 Lord North  WON 9/2 

AOB

1.50 – Iberia 18/1 3rd / Year of The Tiger 15/2  UP

2.25 – Tango 18/1  UP

3.00 – Lope Y Fernandez 16/1  UP

Johnston

2.25 – Raffle Prize 11/10 2nd 

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Trends Thursday…. READ HERE>>>

(a look at the Cambridgeshire handicap)

3.40 Newmarket 

Trainers (22 years / with runners) T

  • Le Don De Vie H1 I3 G3/ Korcho
  • Lord North WON
  • Petrus
  • Another Touch

Shortlist

Hmm, i’m not sure how useful these will be, as the 15/15 stats leave plenty… if I look at a profile of…

Not top 5 in weights / age 3-6 / Top 2 at least once last 3/ Not run G1 level / Same class or up 1/ 26< career runs / 2-17 handicap wins / 3-8 runs this season / 2-6 career wins / 1+ hncp win / ran non major or G2 LTO / Hncp LTO / Not 4yo+ race LTO / did not run 6-10 days ago…

That leaves  11/105, 25p in the last 15 years…

Good Birthday H3 / Le Don De Vie H1 I3 G3 T/ Jazeel / Beringer / Chance / Korcho T / Cockalorum

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Write up, 3.25 MR 

Luckofthedraw…

I’ve gone for two unexposed ones here, with some chase experience, who should have much more to come this season over fences. This one was 12s, 14s in places while deliberating and was clipped in but I didn’t want to agonise too much over that in the end – he’s 2/2 on seasonal reappearance which caught the eye, I think he has to go RH, and he’ll appreciate this 2m6f 85y trip (the rails have been moved out and added  a furlong to the advertised distance). I hope they race him up there and with any luck he jumps well. Obviously the yard are in fine form and do well here. I think he may have lost confidence at the back end of last season and hopefully he’s back to his best here, and can build on last years early season promise.

Terry The Fish…

He’s gone well/won after breaks before, in the 70-100 day bracket, and given the form of the yard, I thought he was worth chancing on return at the price. The fact they return to a track he’s run well at, and have headgear on, would suggest to me he should be here to run his race. He should race up there and track the pace. There’s a chance Junior had the choice although it could be connections wanted his valuable 3lb off As You Like, given he’d gone up 7 from LTO.

This horses last two chase runs are decent, esp Uttox where he lost so much ground at his fences, jumping right. His last two RPRs are very good, both in the context of this race and his mark.  Given he’s a 3m hurdle winner he should appreciate this trip, and going back RH. He should be winning chases in the coming weeks and with any luck will kick things off today with a win.

I was happy to leave the rest at the odds.

As You Like is open to attack from better horses now, from this mark, and I don’t rate his recent form that highly. However, he’s fit, in form, jumps, and is consistent, and that may be enough.

Montys Award threw the race away LTO, idling badly in front, and that put me off at the prices, esp as this is step up in class also. But again, you can make a solid case and he may not be far away.

Bandsman would be the third and final main danger to my eyes. He’s unexposed enough from team Skelton and he may appreciate this trip. His jumping has been scrappy and he’s had another wind op – he’s clearly got breathing issues on that evidence. He is a good ground horse but this may not be as soft as feared, but still some cut. But I can see the case.

Those four were my shortlisted horses really, and i’ve gone for two at the biggest prices who should have more to come at some stage.

Pace wise… i’m hoping both mine track the pace, which may come from Overtoujay and King Golan, if they’re quick enough to stay there. There should be no excuses. If either are held up cold, then I suspect today isn’t the day.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Evening,
    so we get a fair crack at the whip, will put these up now for those who can get early prices.
    15:25 Mar Rasen
    LUCKOFTHEDRAW 1pt win 18/1 lads 16/1 gen
    BANDSMAN 1pt win 15/2 gen

    16:40 Navan
    MEGALOMANIAC 1pt win 9/2 gen
    MRS LOVETT 1pt win 12/1 gen

    write ups in morning.

    1. LUCKOFTHEDRAW
      well, for those who can`t get on at decent odds this one is about the price I expected it to be, been laid out for this and the Twister factor is another reason to fancy it! I managed £5 each way at 20/1 with 365 last night, then was told I could only have another £1 each way at 18/1 before that went and it was 16`s 14`s elsewhere, managed to get 16 on BFX, then that went, so, as you can see, they obviously priced it up all incorrect last night. As for the horse, he is as tough as teak and will love the weather and the right handed track.
      BANDSMAN
      Another who is tough as teak and will appreciate the slower going, he does occasionally clout the odd fence, but, somehow manages to stay on his feet, the 8/1, 15/2 is about right and he will be still galloping on when all the rest have cried foul…hopefully.

      MEGALOMANIAC
      One horse I believe that may string together a decent run of form, RB in the saddle again also and think this one has not finished winning yet, if TBLense does win then all well and good I had my winnings off this one lto, had him in the 2/1 price range with TBlense 11/4, so, the 9/2 that was on offer and is quickly disappearing was value!
      MRS LOVETT
      Now, she was destined for big things and somewhat lost her way last season, maybe it was confidence, too many runs, injury, who knows but the trainer and jockey. She did win a nice race at Thurles in February, so, it may be she likes the shorter days and the proper good ground in the winter, which from my experience is what I like to call “get yer toe in good ground!”, we shall see what she does with Mr Jacob on board today as he has been called back into the plate for this one which seems odd as there is a decent card at MR for him to maybe plough his trade at and it is his only ride of the day!!??

      1. Well done, esp for getting 16s on machine. I deliberately made sure not to look at the comments before looking, as thought you may have had a go. Which adds weight to when we agree!
        He’s done that well, never in much doubt to my eyes, if he jumped. Could be a fair bit more to come from him over staying trips. Lovely ride by Sam and he was always going to outstay the rest from the last imo.
        Onwards.

      2. Big slap on the back for both of us there!! Well done Josh also, when I saw you picked it also this morning thought I`ll have a bit more at 10`s, just managed to get it before it completely disappeared…Long game for both of us and pity those that left the party early in May / June..time to get the big guns out!!!!

  2. today’s ITV 7 fun bets.
    Newmarket.
    1-50. Surf Dancer 10-1 £4 win, money back if 2nd or 3rd
    2-25. Dark Lady 12-1 £2 ew
    3-00. Lope Y Fernandez 14-1 £1.5 ew
    3-40. Lord North 7-1 £7 ew 8 places, Nicholas T 40-1 £2 ew 6 places
    Market Rasen.
    2-15. Zeb Spirit 9-4 £2 win
    2-50. Forever My Friend 18-1 £1 ew
    3-25. Bandsman 8-1 £4 ew
    5p ew accum for 1/4 mill 🙂
    £41-10 staked

    1. haha, haven’t they just, that’s how it can go with those sadly, and more a reason to use as a ‘way in’ , annoying all four not doing much as yet bar a couple of shorties. Hopefully a couple of decent priced ones can go in.

      Yep he is, good spot, missed him last night,
      cheers,
      Josh

  3. Its strange how using my Cambridgeshire trend statistics I throw up a different list than you Josh
    Bedouin’s Story/Good Birthday/Isomer/Le Don de Vie/Mordin/Queen Of Time
    So I’m doing the 2 we both shortlist and threw Mordin into the mix as well

    1. 2 non runners from that short list !! Have my doubts about the fav. as Frankie was originally going to ride Star Of Bengal not this one

    2. Well it’s not too strange if you’ve used different stats! 🙂 You can see the profile etc I used above – the fact my 15/15 stats left 20 odd would suggest, with my approach anyway, it’s prob not the best of trends races. I believe there’s also a much bigger gap/spread in the ratings this year, to last year
      A minefield of a race as always, best of luck with your pokes!
      Josh

  4. Skybet go 8 places in The Canbridgeshire. I cannot see Majestic Dawn being out of the finish, albeit is is a cavalry charge.
    At a bigger price Dark Vision, a group 2 winner last season, may be able to do something for the boys in blue at 25/1.
    I wonder if stats are less useful when the fields are so big?

    Anyway good luck.

      1. Well…..you are wrong! If you use your brains and do certain bets with them you can still get on for a fair few quid. You have to be selective though.

        I do find comments like this ‘muggy’ as anyone with any real knowledge of the online betting game knows that different bookmakers treat almost everyone differently. You can get restricted for nothing or get away with certain things for a decent length of time if you do not go silly.
        I am sure that there are a fair few members on the site who can get on with Skybet and are not total losers? I have not done the bet but was pointing it out as a piece of information. Not a race for me, too many runners.

        Anyway, have a nice day.

        1. quite right Martin sky are one of the 4 i have left completely unrestricted i just throw in a few patents , trixies, l15’s and silly accas to keep them happy

        2. Martin, you have been watching too much politics and feel you can call people names as you think you are always right. I have been betting on horses for many years, my father was a pro gambler, my grandfather was a bookie, I myself have spent 27 years working as a bond trader in the city, I know about markets and how these things work, I don’t need to listen to you to know that Skybet will not let you win consistently, they will restrict until they are not worth bothering with. So Martin, stop playing the big punter bullshit and get real. People on here should listen to Colin, he is in the real world and is honest

  5. COLINS BETS
    Ripon
    3.05 Captain Colby BOG 9/1
    3.35 Muscika BOG 11/2
    4.10 Multellie BOG 4/1
    ORIGINAL
    4.35 Ripon Muscika BOG 11/2
    4.10 Ripon Multellie BOG 4/1
    Colin

  6. Yes it is still a very good piece of work Josh and is the reason I subscribe to these pages so please don’t think I’m knocking it , I’m on the big price aob horses today and backed Lord north yesterday , keep up the good work , and I say this as probably one of your longest standing members. Cheers

    1. ha, No worries. Oh I know, but when X is rubbish/hasn’t fired, you’re entitled to say so! 🙂 It is odd that all four haven’t fired as yet, but the research is sound/logical, but of course always small numbers with such an approach. May well be best to stick with them next year as they are now, but we shall see.

  7. 3.40 N
    Unfortunately, my pick for this is a now a NR Bedouin Story so have gone for
    Your Hired 66s
    Al Jellaby 66s
    Majestic Dawn 10s best bet.
    8 places at sky bet.

    Mike

  8. Losing Haydock has left me with nothing for this afternoon and Chelmsford tonight isn’t exactly setting my pulse racing. Yesterday produced two 2nds and a 3rd from 3 bets, today I can’t hang my hat on anything with any confidence. Funny old game!

  9. Cheers gents, always nice when Stewart and I agree and they win!
    Nice horse. Glad I didn’t overthink that price point around 10s, his 2/2 record fresh swayed it (with Treackle Tart firmly in my mind!)

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