Members Daily Post: 26/09/19 (complete:09.19)

test tip x1 (write up), Nick’s tips x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Newmarket Day 1

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Pontefract *

3.25 –

Gin In The Inn (m class) 10/1 

Highly Sprung (3yo+) H1 I3 8/1 S6  WON 7.2/1>7/1 (10p R4) BFSP 8.2 

Stoney Lane (all Hc’s,m dist) 25/1 

5.05 –

Hawk In The Sky (all Hc’s) 33/1 

Pipers Note (m’s dist) I3 18/1 

5.40 – Dance King (m -class) H3 I3 6/1 

 

Newmarket……….None

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JUMPS

Perth

2.00 – Pats Oscar (HcCh,m runs) H3 11/4 

3.45 – Birch Vale (all Hc’s) w2 ES+   7/2 S3A  UP

4.20 – Pistol Shoot (HcCh) G3  9/2 (S1 If 11.00+ BFSP)

4.50 – Imperial Elysian (all Hc’s) ES+  H3 9/2 S3A

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/94, 33p +48.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.  Obviously i’ve looked at the 4.20 Perth but far too much guessing required now the ground has turned heavy – nothing really has any form in testing ground, and some of them are proven over 20f, stepping up. Hard to say anything is a price where you’d take a chance etc, so i’ll leave it. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 3/18,10p, +7.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

2.00 Perth – Kings Wharf – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/lad) 15/2 (gen) 2nd, 8/1, ran best of the rest, but the early odds compilers have got that spot on, 13/8>9/4 – Murphy’s Law has relished the going, got over whatever issue he had LTO and hacked up like a very well handicapped horse, albeit in a poor race. 

as of 08.39 , write up…

To my eyes this is a rather weak chase and I wanted to take on the top 3 in the market.

Kings Warf is having his 3rd start after a lengthy break. He returned at 33s over hurdles, no doubt as fat as a pig. He ran 40 days later LTO and returns 17 days later here, and I suspect he’ll now be cherry ripe. That run LTO was decent… it was a C3 and he was up against 125 animals. Second that day was Soupy Soups, and Graineyhill was just in front of him. They came 1st (well done Stewart) and 2nd yesterday so the form has been franked. He was bang there until after the 3rd last, having jumped well but ran a tad fresh through the first half of the race. I also don’t think he stays 3m and his stamina just ebbed away, as well as being outpaced by better horses.

Clearly he isn’t the force of old but he’s been dropped 3lb for that and it’s his first go in a C4 chase since January 2017. A mark of 107 is looking very workable now. Esp given before his break he was running to RPRs over fences, in C3s, of 115-117. He was formally a smart horse for Mullins and then Cromwell, his best form over this intermediate trip. He’s a few solid efforts on soft, and at the price i’ll take the chance this heavy ground will be fine. I wouldn’t be surprised if Henry is aggressive on him here – they are all ‘pace pushers’ with no out and out front runners, and the race is there to be stolen/dictated. In any case, C4, heavy, 20f could be ideal for him now. I thought he was overpriced. He is 10, but is 3/12,4p in handicap chases, he tries, he gallops, and he’s 2/7,4p at C4 level over fences in the last 5 years. I don’t think he’s going to have a better chance to win a chase.

Of the rest…

Well he’s up against younger, less exposed legs, so no shock if one of the top 3 goes in. Ryalex has fitness to prove (no winning record fresh, and it will be testing) and he’s no form on heavy as yet to speak of – that makes 11/4 skinny, even in a 5 runner race.

Murphy’s Law is having his second start over fences having faded tamely LTO, found to have bled from his nose. Yes he could step forward here but you’re guessing as to the going and his well-being – this will be tough work, and if he’s a bleeding issue, he could be found out again under the pump, unless he just had a cut in his nose. In any case, even without that, he looks short given the questions.

Pat’s Oscar is the one I fear as all her wins are in heavy, over hurdles, 3/7, 4p. Conditions should be fine and I suspect she’s had a break as they wait for softer ground. She was my initial pick at 3s, but then I could make a case for a 15/2 shot, so that’s that. She ran well two starts ago before her stamina ebbed away. She’s no world beater but I can see the case. Her jumping did get scrappy over hurdles, so we shall see what she does here on her second start. In the end given the questions, 3s probably isn’t that generous – but i’d fancy her ahead of the other two shorties I think.

So, we shall see. Hopefully one for the older brigade here. Fingers crossed he runs his race – no signs that he will refuse! I think he’ll out-run his odds if he does.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

3.25 Pontefract – Reflektor – 1 point EW – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen, 1/5, 4p gen) NR

that’s all as of 08.09

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister

2.35 P – Dont Shout (m2, 16/1<) UP

3.45 P – Grey Diamond (m3/4, 11/2<) WON 7/2

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

2.00 P – Murphys Law (11/1<) WON 13/8>9/4

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Micro Monday : READ/Watch HERE>>>

Tracker Tuesday: READ HERE>>>

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Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting 

I’ve had a flick through the ‘Fantastic Four’ for this meeting, and you can find these stats HERE>>>

There’s one micro for each, and some notes you can use as a guide. I’ll post the micro ‘qualifiers’ >>>

Day 1

Gosden 

4.45 – Travel On (12/1<) 9/4  UP

AOB

3.35 – Wichita 7/4 WON 7/4>10/11

Haggas

5.20 – Nicklaus 5/1

Johnston 

2.25 – Love Destiny 5/1 UP

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. 2 for tomorrow.
    NEWMARKET 3-00. GOODNIGHT GIRL 17-2 BOG WH
    PONTEFRACT 3-25. HIGHLY SPRUNG 17-2 BOG BV 4 PLACES
    both 1/2 pt ew, 1/4pt ew double

    1. Iv’e had another 1/2 pt ew on GOODNIGHT GIRL @ 12-1 b365, 2lb better off for a 1/2l 2nd to Belated Breath lto been there or thereabouts all season and is one of the few who won’t mind if a bit of rain turns up.

  2. Kings Wharf 2pm Perth was 25s last night, 16s this morning now 8s, guess somebody fancies it. Could be worth a small interest.

    Mike

    1. KW now as short as 11/2, 7s still available at Lad.
      The saying “those who hesitate are losers” or something like that. I had 16s staring at me at 8am and saw it it disappear. If your not quick you’re last.
      Good pick josh.

      Mike

      1. hmm, I don’t look at what price they were, try and judge ‘value’ at the time I look, but what the price compilers were smoking in first show, who knows!

        Long term i’d personally rather back this type – esp in a weekday handicap- on morning odds at 8s than early evening at 16s – you keep backing 16/25s shots evening before that go off at 5s etc, even for small stakes, then i’m sure that increases chances of your account being closed – that was clearly a false price – and I suspect the usual idiots going into Betfair when no liquidity, or placing prices to be matched etc etc hasn’t helped either. Maybe he was tipped somewhere also.

        But, given his run LTO, in a much better race, form franked, trip he doesn’t fully see out, and I suspect he still needed a run, in heavy, given Q for others, i’ve no idea how he was put in at that price! Madness, whatever he does.

        fingers crossed!
        Josh

  3. NUMBER ONE
    4.00 Pontefract Francis Xavier BOG 7/4
    5.20 Newmarket Nicklaus BOG 11/2
    8.30 Chelmsford The Jean Gene BOG 5/1
    NUMBER TWO
    4.00Pontefract Francis Xavier BOG 7/4
    Colin

  4. Some positive vibes coming out of Lambourn from Charlie Hills for:

    2.25 Newmarket, Fantasy Believer;
    5.20 Newmarket, Dark Jedi.

    Both each way.

    1. Charlie Hills has stopped posting on the site for the egg and spoon meetings but does comment when the big meetings or Saturdays come around. With the ground becoming softer we need to look for horse suited by it and at a value price.

  5. Angel Lane 7.15 Southwell is the type that K Burke excels with at southwell 3yo,had a few runs on turf and unexposed on sand.Would prefer to have Ben Curtiss on board though

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