Free Daily Post: 25/09/19 (complete)

Members test tip + video review…

A couple of things today… firstly a ‘test tip’ from my members club… my main chase tips focus on the stayers (2m7f+) where my historical record stands up to scrutiny, but where that can’t be said for chases over a shorter distance- there’s no reason I shouldn’t do well with these long term and they have been ticking along just fine, helped by the win of Vivas at Warwick earlier in the week. 

Below this is a video review of a horse I got completely wrong yesterday, in a race where I tipped the 3rd (he ran fine). There was some lazy analysis of said horse and I like to reflect in order to try and ensure such errors don’t happen to regularly moving forwards! Hopefully you find it interesting and it may help in your own approach to analysing chasers – or give you some ideas. So, put the kettle on and get the notepad out 🙂 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 3/16,8p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

2.55 Sligo – Thecraicisninety – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen)

A trip over the Irish Sea… I thought 4s looked decent enough here as I didn’t think it was that competitive, with plenty of older legs and horses seemingly out of form.

This horse is 1/11, 6p over fences but 1/5,5p since P Roche started training (not sure if he’s taken over from his father/some relation, C Roche). His chase win came over this CD which I found interesting. He had a break, they brought him back over hurdles LTO where he ran ok, and now the retained rider for JP (in Ireland) jumps back on. He races prominently and does jump well at his best, and his form is decent. The Kilbeggan defeat to Mill Quest was franked, and he was just outstayed over the last there, 20f. Punchestown 2nd was ok, possibly having gone off too quick, but he kept battling. His conqueror that day, Reach Up, doesn’t seem in the same form. Something clearly went wrong NTO, before the break and the return. The yard are in cracking form and I thought he looked solid. I’d like to think this has been the plan.

Cliff House is a danger but the yard are quiet and he’s now 0/10 over fences. He likes coming second, which at 5/2 would be a negative for me. Happy to take on at the price but I suppose he’s consistent and if i’ve got mine wrong he’s the likely beneficiary.

Light That is unexposed but a few questions at the price (i’d want bigger) and the rest I was happy to leave for various reasons.

Hopefully the selection will race up in the van and if unable to lead, will do so at some point turning in as others drop away.

*

Treackle Tart … what did I miss?!

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. This week for my golf tips we are in Scotland on the European Tour and in Napa, California on the USPGA tour.

    In Europe the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship takes place at three courses, St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. Those golfers competing here play one round at each course and a final round at St Andrews again for those qualifying to do so. There is also a Pro Am team element to the tournament. Carnoustie is the most difficult course of the three and so when it is a players turn to play there, they had better hope that the wind is not blowing, otherwise their score may go in a bad direction. The weather forecast is for rain and so we look for players who are good in such conditions.

    The pick is…..Tyrrell Hatton, 1 point each way at 28/1 with Skybet, 8 places, 1/5 odds a place.

    Tyrrell won this tournament in 2016, then retained the title in 2017 and then finished runner up, to Lucas Bjerregaard, in 2018. So we know that he likes the courses, likes the tournament format and can cope with the pro am element and the razzmatazz surrounding the celebrities. he is not having the greatest of years but can obviously raise his game for this tournament.

    Rory McIlroy goes off 6/1 favourite here. There is no value there as he keeps having one round per tournament plus 72. Until he stops doing that he is not a betting proposition. John Rahm is second favourite at 15/2 but I do not like him in this format. He likes to focus when playing and the pro am team furore will likely unsettle him.

    Over in the U.S. the Safeway Open takes place at the Silverado Resort and Spa (North) in the lovely Napa Valley. The course is a par 72 over 7,200 yards. The weather is set fair, as you would expect in California.

    The pick is…..Ryan Moore, 1 point each way at 45/1 with Skybet, 6 places, 1/5 odds a place.

    This is the season starter for Ryan Moore. However he has played well at the course as he lost in the play off here last year and so we know that he plays well here. Ryan plays well tee to green but does need to improve his putting this week. Ryan has been on the tour for over ten years now and on his day is a top player.

    We also like Ryan Moore in a Matchbook tournament match bet. We will back him for 5 points against Corey Conners at 1.862.

    Conners missed the cut last week and has been a bit of a disappointment in the past few months.

    Justin Thomas goes off the 7/1 favourite here. However he recently had an operation for skin cancer and only had the stitches out last week. Therefore he will not have been practising and this tournament will come up too quickly for him to compete.

    Good luck and may your swing be smooth.

  2. North American racing – A nice winner on Tuesday, 8/1 in to 6/5.

    Wednesday – Belmont race 6, 8.39 UK, Tricky Magician, 5/1 in to favourite.

    Good luck.

  3. Hard luck Josh with Thecraicisninety yesterday at Sligo.Just confirming that Padraig Roche(new trainer) is the son of Christy Roche,classic winning rider of St.Jovite,Jet Ski Lady etc,who relinquished his trainer’s licence last year.Padraig doing okay so far….

    1. Thanks Raymond, I assumed it was, but thanks for the clarification. Yep he’s hit some form recently. My pick ran his race, I don’t mind when no excuse, either from horse or rider- I think the winner wanted it more actually, and that can happen. I was expecting his younger legs to just power away after the last but he just couldn’t, or didn’t want to!

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