Members Daily Post: 25/09/19 (complete:09.34)

write ups, Test tip x1, Chase Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, new posts, treacle tart review video…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Goodwood

3.05 – After John (3yo+) 14/1

4.10 – Monica Sheriff (all Hc’s) w1 w2 H3  3/1 WON 7/2

5.20 – Valentino Sunrise (3yo+) 10/1

 

Redcar

3.25 –

Shortbackandsides (micro class) w1 H3 I1 G1 11/4 S1 S4

Grimsdyke (m class) G3 6/1

3.55 – Kenny The Captain (m class) H1 I3 G3 5/2 S4  WON 5/2> 11/10 

 

JUMPS

Perth

3.15 –

Carroll’s Milan (all Hc’s) w1 w2 ES+ H1 I1 G1 11/4 S3A# S4  3rd

Kuraka (m runs) 13/2

3.50 –

Ned Stark (HcCh) 13/2 UP

Graineyhill (HcCh,m +class) G3 14/1 S1 2nd 12/1 

4.55 –

Global Tour (all Hc’s) ES+ I3 7/1 S3A

Imperial Elysian (all Hc’s) ES+ 9/1 S3A

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/94, 33p +48.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.50 Perth – Traditional Dancer – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/Lad/BV/Coral)  Refused – I can only smile, first time he’s ever done that, which would be typical, and given how he was lining up and the result, it makes it worse, bloody frustrating. Even if he’d have been held up that set up for the closers but you have to jump off, he’d have been bang there if he did given the result. 

that’s all for the main chase tips, as of 08.28, write up below..

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 3/17,9p, +8.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

2.55 Sligo – Thecraicisninety – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) 2nd, 1/2 length, no excuse there… thought he’d power away from the 10 year old in closing stages but sadly I think the winner wanted it more. No excuse, has travelled, jumped, taken it up in good time – don’t mind those, another placed horse. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.54, write ups…

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Write ups…

Traditional Dancer…

I thought this mercurial character was worth a go at 8s and he looks to be taking a walk in the market which given his profile I don’t mind too much. A case could be made that on the evidence to date he has the most ability out of any horse in this race – but clearly he’s a character, and whether he’s on a going day we shall see. Having said that he is a winning machine and is 2/6 over fences – there’s more to come. Indeed he could be the type of horse to just keep backing at a price as he’s going to win more chases and I doubt connections fully know which Traditional Dancer will turn up. They re-applied the blinkers last time out and for the first time in his career made-all with him. He did win comfortable, albeit a poor race, but the RPR was a career best, certainly over fences. Last October he came a decent second (front two miles clear) in a handicap novice chase at Aintree that has worked out very well – 11 subsequent winners, decent handicappers. That’s some of the best chase form in this line up. Whether he takes to the blinkers again we shall see.

I am hoping, given LTO, that they ride him aggressively again, and that he can potter around with Indian Temple before taking it up heading for home. Conditions are fine and he’s won three times around Perth, inc hacking up in a novice handicap case over CD. On the flip side they may decide to hold him up again, and he’ll cut through late as he’s done before. Or he won’t really be up for it and it will be laboured fairly early on! 8s has just lured me in as if he’s on a going day, he really won’t be far away against this lot.

The dangers…

Well they’re obvious I suppose in what is a decent little contest.

Topofthecotswolds – I thought he was worth taking on now, up another 10lb from LTO where he beat an inform Tizzard horse, but one who doesn’t fully stay that trip to my eyes (or is better over shorter) and the rest were not up to much. The race before that hasn’t really worked out as yet. He could just be a summer jumper who will find his level now. Going RH is also an unknown over fences – if he were a bigger price it wouldn’t bother me but at 10/3 or so, I think he may be worth taking on. I won’t be shocked if he powers away from them here, this extra 1f may bring out more etc, but i’ll leave him.

Forth Bridge – I wanted a bigger price but again, I won’t be falling off my seat if he wins, and I won’t be beating myself up at the price if he does. He’s a few questions – unlike Charlies two recent chase winners at Warwick this week he doesn’t have a winning profile fresh – however of course we know Charlie can get them fit. He doesn’t like winning that often over fences (1/12, albeit better going this way round) and he does have to prove he stays – for me all those queries made 9/2 look about right. I could be wrong. Given the pot maybe this has been the plan and aged 6 this flat bred horse will now relish 3m over fences. I wasn’t so sure. His win at Kempton came when they changed tactics- riding him cold and creeping through. Maybe that will make all the difference and they will do the same again.

As an aside… I thought JJ Burke may be injured, but it appears he isn’t – so i’ve no idea if he’s been ‘sacked’ by Charlie as he was stable jockey – in any case he’s using Coleman plenty, and they are striking up a great record together. I suspect he’ll try and book Coleman and Johnson when he can here on in, but we shall see.

I would think it’s between those three.

Le Mussee… he’s unexposed but up 8lb from LTO in a race that fell apart – the fav didn’t run his race and Indian Temple UR 3 out, when upsides. I suspect they’d have had a ding dong battle. I’m just not sure as to the strength of his form, and he’s got to prove his stamina over fences, in a race that could be strongly run. Again, 5s or so didn’t feel overpriced.

Of the rest… well i’m not sure Graineyhill and Elmono will be good enough. I’ve a few doubts over Soupy Soups at the price (fav has him well held, he’s 1/14 chasing, win in a C4) and Ned Stark is 11, and seemingly gone out of form. Not for me.

Indian Temple… well he could make all, that wouldn’t shock me. But he’s 10 and is open to attack from younger , less exposed legs. He’s 8lb higher than his decent win here four starts back, 4lb higher than MR when he just clung on, in a poor enough race. He’s been busy enough also. Still, he’s solid, but I can leave him.

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Thecraicisninety…

A trip over the Irish Sea… I thought 4s looked decent enough here as I didn’t think it was that competitive, with plenty of older legs and horses seemingly out of form.

This horse is 1/11, 6p over fences but 1/5,5p since P Roche started training (not sure if he’s taken over from his father/some relation, C Roche). His chase win came over this CD which I found interesting. He had a break, they brought him back over hurdles LTO where he ran ok, and now the retained rider for JP (in Ireland) jumps back on. He races prominently and does jump well at his best, and his form is decent. The Kilbeggan defeat to Mill Quest was franked, and he was just outstayed over the last there, 20f. Punchestown 2nd was ok, possibly having gone off too quick, but he kept battling. His conqueror that day, Reach Up, doesn’t seem in the same form. Something clearly went wrong NTO, before the break and the return. The yard are in cracking form and I thought he looked solid. I’d like to think this has been the plan.

Cliff House is a danger but the yard are quiet and he’s now 0/10 over fences. He likes coming second, which at 5/2 would be a negative for me. Happy to take on at the price but I suppose he’s consistent and if i’ve got mine wrong he’s the likely beneficiary.

Light That is unexposed but a few questions at the price (i’d want bigger) and the rest I was happy to leave for various reasons.

Hopefully the selection will race up in the van and if unable to lead, will do so at some point turning in as others drop away.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

None.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

C Longsdon (details in micro monday post)

3.50 Perth – Forth Bridge (12/1<) UP

Twister

2.40 P – Double Court (m1) 2nd

3.50 P – Topofthecotswolds (m1) UP

4.55 P – Kerisper (m4, 11/2<)

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

2.40 P – Lucky Robin (LTO winner starting points, 12/1<) WON 11/8

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

3.50 P- Graineyhill (17/2< guide) 2nd 12/1

 

LTO Winning Trainers

3.50 P – Traditional Dancer (12/1< guide) Refused

3.50 P- Le Musee (12/1< guide) PU

4.20 P- The Boola Bee (12/1< guide) 2nd

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Micro Monday : READ/Watch HERE>>>

Tracker Tuesday: READ HERE>>>

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Treackle Tart… well you can line me up against a wall and prepare to fire…a review video below…every time I don’t back the winner of a chase, esp one at a price, I review what I missed/errors in analysis. This one was so bad, I’ve recorded a video looking back. This game is about training the brain really, in the hope of not making such errors too regularly again (you’ll always miss the odd thing, nature of the beast), and you may find it interesting / useful/entertaining.  In any case you’ll see how I think (or should have done) about chases etc… Chris (handbag) found her (well done), alas, I really wasn’t as close as I should have been. She ticked so many boxes, but you can watch my thoughts below…  i

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Josh, you shouldn’t praise me or beat yourself up. I only backed the Longsdon horses because Vivas won (didn’t back it!) from my rough old system I have for him so felt obliged to carry on with them today. No skill involved pure luck on my behalf, on most other days they would still be running and I’d be wondering why I didn’t listen to you….again! Hard to win a war without losing a battle!

    1. Haha, well you deserve some praise. Oh I haven’t beat myself up but the only way to improve in this game is to reflect on what you missed etc, and if you do it enough, you miss less moving forwards! In theory. I’ve landed on horses like that before and will again, one that got away, or where I didn’t give myself the best chance. That happens, but I think the above is a key part of process of wanting to improve. This games too tough to not take such an approach imo. Same as when you review your systems etc etc.

      1. Sometimes the simple systems are the best. This one (from OCP) “Back all Charlie Longsdon runners in handicap chases and bumpers at 20/1 or less in September”.
        I haven’t worked out the profit so far this month, but certainly well up after the last 2 days.
        Could be worth getting on Forth Bridge now!

  2. 3 for tomorrow
    Goodwood.
    3-05. Sweet Pursuit @ 8.8 bf 1pt win
    3-40. Qarasu @ 5.5 1pt win
    Redcar.
    2-30. Lydiate Lady @ 5.2 1pt win
    small trixie
    out early and won’t be back till late tomorrow so had to get these on tonight, best prices i could find.

  3. Perth 15:50
    In for a penny and all that
    FORTH BRIDGE 1pt win 5/1 gen
    SOUPY SOUPS 1pt win 6/1 gen

    FB stands out in this and especially with the yard in such scintillating form atm, SS is a long distance traveller that has a top jock on board…ran 2nd lto, so, we shall see if he can go one better today!

      1. Yep well done, I’m still annoyed haha. He just galloped when everything else had seemingly stopped, annoyed mine didn’t jump off as I think we’d have had a ding dong battle up the straight! 🙂

  4. Yesterday all went very wrong having planned to post my bets at the airport but fate wasn’t having any of it and ended up in a mad dash for the gate. Made the flight and in Portugal now and will be posting daily, but not necessarily the usual times.

  5. Another positive for Forth Bridge is the Topofthecotswolds doesn’t seem to like going right handed – no wins and RPR 50 points worse than left handed.

    1. Hmm, he’s only run RH three times, and they were NHF races over inadequate trips where he ran just fine – it is a question at the price, over fences, and suspect a reason they’ve kept in LH – but that’s what i’d call a dodgy profile stat haha – similar to some of my rash thinking with TT yesterday. That is one of the questions/unproven elements that came into thinking for taking him on for sure, but one of those unknowns that comes down to price. His jumping has been pretty straight, but we shall see.

  6. COLINS BETS
    2.20 Redcar Lydiate Lady BOG 7/2
    3.05 Goodwood Cent Flying BOG 4/1
    8.15 Newcastle Elixsoft BOG 11/1
    8.15 Newcastle Oriental Lilly BOG 4/1
    ORIGINAL
    2.20 Redcar Lydiate Lady BOG 7/2
    3.55 Redcar Tobeornottobee BOG 4/1
    3.05 Goodwood Cent Flying BOG 4/1
    Colin

  7. Is anyone else finding that Betfair races are not timed as per the racing post and ATR web sites? Everything’s working here internet wise but the races on B/f are all timed wrong.

    1. Thing is that Lisbon and London are both same time zone at this time of year Aaron. Not sure what is happening TBH but I’m gonna check tomorrow’s race times now they’re up on Betfair.

  8. William Hill have kindly refunded my stake money on Traditional Dancer, not sure whether any others have done the same.

    1. That’s very generous of them, I doubt many will but who knows! Fingers crossed, but he’s a -1 for the ledger. So annoying given how that panned out, so annoying. First time he’s ever refused. Even if he’d have been slowly away (and was lining him up to race up there, prob end up sitting off the front two) that set up for closers also, ground no problem. Bloody horses. Onwards.

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