Members Daily Post: 24/09/19 (complete:09.33)

Tip x1 (write up), Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Beverley

3.05 –

Twin Appeal (3yo+,micro class) w1 H1 I3 6/1 S6  UP

Stringybark Creek (3yo+) 9/1 

Ollivander (all Hc’s,m TJC and dist)  G3 9/1 

Valley Of Fire (3yo+,m class) w2  12/1 

Fox Casper (3yo+,m age) ES+  22/1 S3A

4.10 –

Ideal Candy (3yo+,m class) 18/1 

Ventura Royal (all Hc’s,m TJC) w2 9/1 

5.15 –

Thorntoun Care (3yo+) H3 I3 8/1 

Bollin Ted (3yo+) ES+ I3 G1 8/1 S3A# S6 2nd 

Elysee Star (m dist) 10/1 

5.45 –

Cosmic Ray (3yo+) 6/1 

Brutalab (3yo+,m age) w2 ES+ H3 I1 7/2 S3A#

 

JUMPS

Warwick

3.15 –

The Crafty Touch (all Hc’s,m class and -dist) ES+ 7/1 S3A

Runasimi River (all Hc’s) 10/1 

3.50 – Quarenta (all Hc’s,m -class and LTO) 14,30  w2 H3 G1 4/1 (S1 if 11.00+ BFSP)

4.20 –

Write It Down (all Hc’s) 12/1 

Seeanythingyoulike (m age) 4/1 

4.55 – Twig (m nhf) 6/1 

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/93, 33p +49.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.50 Warw – Gardiners Hill – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/lad/coral) 13/2 (others) 3rd, 7/2, no excuses… much pondering on the winner… video to follow…

that’s all for today, as of 08.46, write up… 

This is a hot little contest where you could make a legitimate case for most of them in here – it’s probably the sort you should leave alone but alas, I couldn’t help myself!

My starting point is to try and make a case for a more lightly raced one, at the prices, but I was struggling to do that in here. I’ll get onto the oppo in a moment…

Gardiners Hill is just solid -a  winning machine for connections, much like Gone Platinum – both of those have served the trainer so well this summer. I have assumed the going will be on the softer side, and it could be ‘proper’ soft come race time. He is proven at the track, the trip (and over further) and in all going types inc heavy. He arrives in form and has a decent record when making a quick return. They are usually patient on him which while never ideal, is the way he likes to be ridden – and the track was no hindrance to hold up types yesterday, albeit on different ground. He does have a bit of ‘speed’, relatively, between his fences, and 7s allowed the play. Sean Bowen jumps back on – i’m sure he gets first refusal on his dad’s horses, especially if he’s won on them, so his choice here could be significant.

The question is his mark – he’s 5lb above his highest winning chase mark of 110, at Uttoxeter in May. He did run a 118 on RPRs there. And then at Stratford he also ran well off 117, losing by 2 lengths – an RPR there of 122. Those two RPRs being career bests over fences. He’s won in bigger fields, and at the class. I thought plenty in here may not run their race, or had more severe questions, and he could well snaffle this prize, before the handicapper truly gets him, and the races get more competitive.

I thought he was entitled to be a 4s/ 9/2 shot in this, based on form, fitness, well-being, suitability to conditions etc – so at 7s I was happy to dive in.

Of the rest…

Theclockisticking… as to whether this one can get it together over fences. He’s had another break, drops in class, gets 1st CP. He has been ponderous at his fences to date, and can hit a flat spot/get outpaced- I worried about him down the back here, as if you get out of sync, you’re in trouble. He does have a touch of class but how anyone can wade in at 4s with confidence i’ve no idea. Clearly if he got it all together he’d go very close, but I can leave him. He should have an ok pot in him over fences, if/when it all clicks. Hopefully not today!

Quarenta…well he was my first winner around her in Feb after my first phase of ‘re-focusing’ on the staying chasers, and he’d have a squeak. But he has a fitness question, (without a proven profile on seasonal reappearance / all wins within 60 days) and is 12lb above his last chase win. He’s also a tad tricky, and needs delivering at the right time. This is a drop in class and obviously Jonjo can get them fit enough if he wants to. But it’s a question of price, and 5s or so just wasn’t big enough for me, given those questions.

Neither was Ballymalin at 5s, albeit I can see the case. I’m sure he will slog it out to win a soft/heavy ground 3m4f+ race at some point – probably not at the top table, but a decent C3s, or less competitive C2 somewhere like Haydock. He does have a good record fresh, and it is Twister, so you can ‘assume’ he will be fit, albeit again the price doesn’t give much wriggle room. I did wonder, even if this goes soft, whether he may get tapped for toe at some point – and last year, bar when it was slow motion stuff at Lingfield, he did occasionally up-root a fence. I also wondered if Sam would have had the choice. I’m not sure on that as Tom has ridden him plenty and he may do so through the whole season. This could be a prep for something else. In any case, he’s another that could take this, and he could stay on powerfully and make 5s look ok, but i’ll leave him for now. He is one to track though – as 3m4f+ in heavy isn’t a problem for him – and not many enjoy such conditions. Hopefully he’s better at his fences this season.

Dr Robin – now he is a true summer jumper who may get loose on the front end here. As we know they are always dangerous, however this is deeper than most of his recent runs. He’s also now 11lb above his last chase win at Cartmel two starts back. If he did bring up the 5 timer you could only applaud. He is 0/2,0p OR 121+, but on recent form you couldn’t say with confidence that he can’t win from this mark, but i’d hope something had a bit too much class for him here. I could be wrong, but another I was happy to leave. He looks solid to place though, esp if getting a freebie on the front, and he won’t mind the ground.

For Good Measure… interesting – i’m on the fence a tad as to whether 9s was worth chancing. I’m not sure he’s that good but he’s unexposed over fences and it’s his second run after a wind op. His effort LTO could well have brought him forward, albeit we await evidence as to whether the op has worked. He’s usually patiently ridden also and does have some poor efforts on his CV. I wanted to see a bit more over fences – he’s now 0/7,0p in this sphere, before diving  in. Id probably rather see a staying on effort into the places today, not beaten far, and back him NTO at 9/2 or something, rather than dive in at 9s today, but he could be another one i’ve got wrong.

I will leave the other three – the market is suggesting today isn’t the day – I was interested whether The Welsh Paddies would be nibbled at – but he’s lost a leg, suggesting he may not be tuned up. He has a fitness question and it’s only his second chase start, having fallen when last seen. There’s the odd cloud over the yard also, given last season, when I think they suffered from illness etc. Jamie Moore is only 2/28 for Kerry in the last year, which may be some indication as to how badly they were running, or how old/badly handicapped the squad was then. This one could have a good season but i’ll leave him today.

Treakle Tart is probably looking a tad silly at 20s – drifted markedly since I started looking- but there is a ground question given this rain, and this race is deeper than that mares listed race she ran in at Perth. I can’t think fitness will be a question but she’s a big weight in conditions to lug around. I thought they’d be something better handicapped and was happy to leave.

Blairs Cover has stamina and ground questions, amongst others. Another I was happy to leave.

So, we shall see if i’ve got this right or not. The selection looked the overpriced one to my eyes. Time will tell.

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Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 3/16,8p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

None.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Twister

2.10 Warw – Darling Alko (m2, 16/1< guide)

4.55 Warw – Redford Road (m2, 16/1< guide)

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Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.50 Warw – The Welsh Paddies

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LTO winning trainers

3.50 Warw – Dr Robbin (8/1<)

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Note…

Micro Monday… will follow on Tuesday! ,along with ‘Tracker Tuesday’ 🙂 I’ve been travelling back up to Liverpool today and haven’t had time/energy to look properly. Albeit i’ve a few stats on ‘the youngest chaser in the race’, prompted by an email from Stewart – that may be best covered in a video. And inspired by the win of Vivas I may have a dive into Charlie Longsdon to see if there’s anything of note. 

There’s also a guest post from Paul Ferguson on it’s way with 5 novice chasers to keep an eye on, from his new book. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

    1. I always follow Longsdon, this time of year so I looked at Cardigan Bay too. I don’t understand how it’s running in a novice hurdle after it’s run in 6 hcap hurdles and won 2 of them (1 nov hcap hurdle), anyone care to enlighten me?

      1. I’ve switched off for the evening but will have a look in the morning.
        Could be a case of educated guesswork re the going tomorrow. Plenty of rain possible.
        Wasn’t sure if Treacle had much in hand, or in any case open to attack but unexposed from memory. Only had a quick look. She should be fit though. Perth listed race wasn’t the best which would concern me. May need a soft ground horse but will ponder first thing with fresh eyes.

      2. Yep…Novices…

        So, if your first and only win (either hurdle or chase) is from early March before some date in April (in 2018 it was 28th) you’re still a ‘novice’ until the end of October – hence eligibility to run in such races.

        If you haven’t won a hurdle/chase before said date in April, you’re a novice thereafter for duration of that calendar year I think, albeit again if your first win isn’t until later in the season, March/April, youve got to end of following Oct.
        Something like that – I did have to google for the specifics!
        Josh

        1. Thanks for your help with clearing that up Josh. A quick glance on HRB suggests horses running in novices with a previous win over hurdles have a significantly higher win rate over horses that haven’t won before compared to all hurdle races but maybe I’m comparing apples with apples.

    2. Hope you got stuck in, and topped up after the big drift – a proper trier. Another for Charlie, who of course hits the new angle haha – ah the great game! 🙂

      1. I had 17 on BF. I backed Cardigan Bay at 5 on BF too, sadly no double. Reminded me of around this time last year when I put up 2 Longsdon horses which duly obliged, had the double that day though if I remember correctly.

        1. i’m not a happy bunny with my ‘in hindsight eyes’ haha
          I’m putting that in the howler category, first for a while, but annoying, on various fronts.
          It may need a video.

  1. 15:50 Warwick
    BALLYMALIN 1pt win 11/2 gen
    GARDINERS HILL 1pt win 8/1 365/ 7/1 gen

    Again apologies for no write ups, agreed with Josh about the race at NAbb last week, it was a strange run race and Dickie did what a champ does and used the horses strength to gallop them into the ground…

    1. Think it would be folly for me now to add my reasoning as Josh had first bite on write ups, also agree with Ballymalin, wetter the better, we shall see, thought GH was thrown in here, but, will it have come too soon, like Josh I could ooh and aah about most of these, but, at the prices they were value, just!

      1. best of luck, hopefully we are both cheering! Looks to still be pouring down there – Bally should be fit, so may well be coming up soft enough for him. Don’t understand why he is weak ish. 5s is always around that iffy point for me! For sure the strongest stayer in here. I’ve had a saver at 7s in case we are wrong on the other.
        Wasn’t sure GH was thrown in as such, but in these conditions he’s just one of very few likely to run their race- as you say provided last run hasn’t taken it out of him, which is always possible, but at least it was a hurdle. We will find out soon enough.

      2. I still cannot believe Treackle drifted….I had him at 6/1, which was around his morning tissue price, ah well, don`t think i analysed it incorrectly, just wasn`t ready for the drift and the price was value above 8`s….we move on!

        1. Was she 6s when you looked this morning? Not sure I have an excuse haha as think she was 8s+ when I was in analysis mode. Oh well. Live, and sometimes learn!

  2. hurrah a winner at last and the other was withdrawn after being backed into 5-2 from 9’s onto today.
    Beverley 4-10. Kilbaha Lady 13-2 sky bv 4 places 1pt ew, if you take out last run here when she dwelt badly in stalls overall form is very consistent , has won on g/s and over further so stamina shouldn’t be an issue has good 3lb claimer on board. should be in the mix come the line. heavy showers are f/c but we didn’t get much rain overnight so my guess is g/s come the off.
    nothing else really stands out but i have had a small ew on Bossiney Bay 14-1 Warwick 3-15 up in trip after poor showing on handicap debut.

  3. I do not follow any particular trainers but I am always interested in those who do and why they do and how successful it is for them? There is the mention of Charlie Longsdon above. i do get the specialisation angle in knowing more about one particular trainer. I do the same with my tipping for football and the NFL. Just something to discuss on a very wet Tuesday (I have been out with the dogs already and have got wet).

  4. COLINS BETS
    4.00 Lingfield Giving Back BOG 3/1
    4.10 Beverley Ventura Royal BOG 9/2
    7.00 Chelmsford Squire BOG 7/2
    7.30 Chelmsford Alemaratalyoun BOG 7/2
    ORIGINAL
    7.00 Chelmsford Squire BOG 7/2
    Colin

  5. NUMBER ONE
    6.30 Chelmsford Harlequin Rose BOG 7/1
    NUMBER TWO
    2.10 Warwick Ferrobin BOG 2/1
    5.25 Chelmsford Belle Anglaise BOG 9/4

    Sods law my first venture into backing them 2 losers.
    Colin

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