Members Daily Post: 23/09/19 (complete:09.08)

Test tip x1 (+write up), Section 1 (x1), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Hamilton

2.30 –

Guardia Svizzera (all Hc’s) G3 9/2 

Shortbackandsides (all Hc’s) ES+ G1 11/1 S3A S6  WON 10/1>6/1 

Kodicat (micro TJC) 7/1 

4.45 –

B Fifty Two (m dist) 7/1 

Kenny The Captain (all Hc’s,m class) ES+ G3 5/1 S3A UP

5.50 –

Rashdan (m runs) 12/1 

Pioneering (all Hc’s) w1 H1 I3 G3 7/2 S4 

Parole (all Hc’s,m class) ES+ 20/1 S3A

Ningaloo (m class) 12/1 

 

Leicester……..None

 

JUMPS

Warwick

3.50 –

Royal Ruby (all Hc’s) w2 G1 6/1 UP

Bolton Boy (m LTO) 25/1 S2A UP

4.20 – Tikkinthebox (m age) H3  11/2  Won

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/92, 32p +50.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 3/16,8p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

3.15 Warw – VIVAS – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) WON 7/1>4/1 

that’s all for today, 08.54, write up…

I thought he was worth chancing here given his overall profile, and the fact he does bring some ‘winter form’ to the table. He’s 3/8 over fences so has experience but there could be more to come this year. In any case he’s back down to his last winning mark and drops in class from when last seen. 

  • In handicaps, all wins rated 130< 
  • He’s 2/3,3p when returning 121-365 days, and is usually ready to roll first time up.
  • 4/7, 5p 1-7 runners
  • In all chases…
  • All wins 2m4f< 
  • 2/2 on Good to Firm, of which there’s some in the going – his two career best RPRs are with firm in the going. 
  • He’s 3/3 with marks of 121-130 
  • 3/4,3p 1-7 runners
  • 3/4,4p going LH or figure of eight (Fontwell), 0/4,0p RH
  • Trainer and jockey are 3/5 at the track in handicap chases

He ticks plenty of boxes here today and i’d be surprised if he wasn’t fit to win today given the above. The yard are in form, 1/4,2p in the last 14 days. 

So, at 7s, I was happy to roll the dice. 

The race does look competitive to a point. Potterman is in form and looks progressive but i’m not sure as to the strength of his novice chase wins and he’s 13lb above his last handicap win, over hurdles. His mark is also 1lb higher than his best recent RPRs – he could be open to attack from something with more in hand. I can see why he’s fav, but at 5/2 I wanted to take him on. Lovato is solid and improved for the step back up in trip LTO. He beat an 11 year old there and is 8lb higher. He was also ridden cold there and I don’t like that around Warwick – Sam may be more aggressive now they’ll be more confident he stays, but again at 7/2 I wanted to take on. It may prove foolish taking on both of those LTO winners, but the price of the selection has just lured me in. 

I can leave the others, inc Candyburg. Hopefully Vivas may have a bit too much class for them. 

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

None.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle 

2.45 War – Manofthemountain (14/1<) 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

3.15 War – Candy Burg (17/2< guide) 

 

LTO Winners Starting Points (12/1<) 

3.15 War- Lovato 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers

2.45 War – Primal Focus (2nd run) 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. COLINS BETS
    4.10 Hamilton Corton Lad BOG 16/1
    4.45 Hamilton Burmese Blazer BOG 13/2
    4.30 Leicester Elixsoft BOG 20/1
    5.25 Kempton Jungle Juice BOG 11/2
    8.30 Kempton Cochise BOG 9/4
    ORIGINAL
    2.20 Leicester Prissy Missy BOG 8/1
    4.30 Leicester Elixsoft BOG 20/1
    8.30 Kempton Cochise BOG 9/4
    Colin

  2. NUMBER ONE
    3.40 Hamilton Spark Of War BOG 6/1
    5.25 Kempton Swiss Pride BOG 7/1
    NUMBER TWO
    No bet

    Decided to back the 2 runners today so expect 2 losers!
    Colin

  3. slightly broke the losing run on saturday with a place but still a loss on the day.
    hope your right Josh with your test tip as i had already backed it earlier 1pt win @ 13-2 bog, added a bit more but into 11-2 now.
    one i did like the profile of is in the 4-55 Warwick:
    Simply Lucky 9-1 1/2 pt ew, staying on 2nd over 2m7f lto beating Howlongisafoot by 2l so the extra 2f shouldn’t be a problem, has won twice on good going but also won on good/soft so won’t mind if a bit of rain comes up 3lb for that but still looks to be on a handy mark.

    1. Cheers, needed that for test after a to be expected mini losing run. Stars aligned for him on paper. Great ride, albeit I was cursing early but Coleman knew what he had, and a horse who pings them.

  4. Your bullet point stats swayed me to have a bet, would be great if you could continue with that format for those of us stingy types who don’t follow you blind (no offence)

    1. Ha, well there’s similar method to my madness everytime. The jury is out hence that’s a test but I’m confident long term with those. Provided you don’t beat yourself up when you leave one of my winners then all good if you prefer to dip in and out.
      I’ll try and use bullet points more when applicable.

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