Members Daily Post: 21/09/19 (complete:10.42)

Nick’s tips x3, Section 1 (complete), Ayr Shortlists etc

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Ayr

3.50 – Soldiers Minute (micro runs) 25/1 

4.25 – Universal Gleam (m dist) w2 H3 12/1 

4.55 – Nordic Fire (m -class) 20/1 

5.30 – Beechwood Jude (m runs) G3 22/1 

 

Catterick

4.10 –

Euro Implosion (3yo+) w2   14/1 

Fantastic Ms Fox (m going and age) I3 G3 6/1 

5.50 – Here’s Rocco (3yo+,m class and runs) 16/1 

 

Newbury and Newmarket……….None

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/92, 32p +50.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no Jumps. 

Thursday’s tip was rather crap. The market spoke there, albeit it was rather strange to watch – maybe not in the context of the drift, ahem.  I thought they may try and creep away, but that was just odd – never put into the race at all, unless his legs couldn’t go any faster but I can’t have that given the pace shown at MR and LTO for a circuit. Annoying when it’s over after 1/2 a mile, jockey didn’t seem to move for an awfully long time through the race. Maybe the horse hasn’t enjoyed it and it’s got to be make-all/prom or nothing with him. Moving on. I was more than happy to take on Mr Mafia at morning price of 11/4 (9/2 SP) , a 10 year old now on a career high mark, up in class after those chase wins and after LTOs fade, given his solid hurdles form. Credit to connections. A Superb ride from the champ, the horse galloped and jumped them silly, wore his heart on his sleeve and to the eye, at some pace. Others tried to pressure him but couldn’t. 

I don’t think there’s any horse I would want to take from that for the future. It was proper summer jumping form. El T will pop up at some point, whether we are on, time will tell! Suspect we may see a price crash and a make all win one day 🙂 

 A few times i’ve thought ‘oh, on paper there are a few front runners, they may cut each other’s throats’ – but they haven’t, 3/4 seemingly go hard but one tends to stay there, jumps better, is in better form- that happened with Pauling’s winner at Kelso, and on Thursday, and others I can think of. When seemingly plenty of pace on paper in a 3m chase, it may be best to assume something will stay there, and will travel and jump much better at pace than others. It’s my job to work out which ones will do that. Tricky, but again, if nothing else more evidence that you don’t want to be held up too far back, generally. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/15,7p, +2.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

2.40 Ayr- Lincoln Park – 1 point EW – 28/1 (1/5,6p PP/betfs) 25/1 (1/5, 6p, SkyB/WH/BetF) UP

3.50 Ayr – Mr Lupton – 1 point EW – 28/1 (7p PP) 28/1 (bet365/betfS/BV) UP

5.30 Ayr – Mordred – 1 point EW – 7/1 (bet365/lad/coral) UP

0/3,0p, -6

that’s all, as of 10.42

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Big Race Trends:  AYR : READ HERE>>>

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Silver / Gold Cup ‘shortlists’…

 

Silver Cup 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners…) T

  • Gabrial The Saint / Red Balloons 
  • Venturous G3
  • Get Knotted / Jawaal G3
  • Rapid Applause 

Trends Shortlist 

Looking at a profile of:  age 3-5, max distance run 7f+, max distance won 6-7f, 1-5 runs prev 90 days, 2-5 career wins, 0-3 distance wins, leaves 12/91 runners, 22p, +158 SP in the last 15 renewals…

Alkaraama H1 I1/ Lahore I3 G1 / Citron Major / Royal Residence / Magical Wish / Jawwaal T 

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Gold Cup 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners…) T

  • Gulliver / Summerghand / Arecibo H3 I3 / Cold Stare / Intisaab 
  • Major Jumbo H1 I1/ Hey Jonesy 
  • Mr Lupton I3 / George Bowen / Growl 
  • Stone of Destiny 
  • Louie De Palma 

Trends Shortlist 

Looking at a profile of: age 3-6, stall 2-22, not bottom weights, 2+ runs 90 days, 2-7 career wins, 0-2 class wins, Non-Major or Group 1 LTO, ran 60< days ago… leaves 16/114 runners, 29p, +126 in last 15 renewals (one dead heat) …

Buffer Zone H3 G1/ Gulliver G3 T/ Summerghand T/ Major Jumbo H1 I1 T / Justanotherbottle / Stone of destiny T / Air Raid / Staxton / Solidiers Minute 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. Looked at the Ayr Gold cup a few days ago, prolly shudn’t bother with these races as rarely have much look with the sprints.
    But straight away I backed the top 2 on the card. A bit clear on ratings from the rest, Mr Lupton won a grp2 earlier this year and Major J is always there in these Hcps carrying big weights. Took both at 20/1 plus, what I didn’t realise then was the draw and everything over the last 2 days has been winning coming up the middle or at least middle-low draws. Hope for Lupton tho winner from trap1 today

    1. The ‘word on the street’ (what I have heard) has been coming back to Hey Jonesy, for various reasons. It seems to have halved in price now to 10/1, so not value now. Bacchus once did us (Members) a favour thanks to Josh at a big price. He has had a blow this season in his only race and may reward each way punters, with enhanced places, at 33/1?

      1. I was supposed to say top 3 rated on that above because i did actually back Bacchus as well
        I looked at the race again last night, I can’t have Hey Jones’s at all like you say I’ve heard a few ppl talking up his chances. A bit about lucky stall number 8 aswel !! Not for me tho looking at his record

        The 2 I’ve backed this morning are closer to the bottom of the card, Louie de Palma has had a break so surely been targeted at this good middle draw
        And Soldiers Minute, this won well at York a few back and that only off a few pounds lower, excuses for last few runs, don’t think 3 is a bad draw and Fanning comes back on for this. Only 4 so could still improve a bit I think hope it runs well

  2. Catterick 5-20. Mansfield 15-2 4 places 1pt ew, notebook horse from when i was at Catterick better draw today 7/14 should be able to tuck in behind leaders and hopefully finish like a train again.
    Newmarket 15:55. Graceful Lady 12-1, 1/2 pt ew, could well outlast all of these should still be going at the finish, won well 2 runs ago now off a career high mark but hopefully that won’t stop her.

  3. COLINS BETS
    3.50 Ayr Buffer Zone BOG 4/1
    3.50 Ayr Arecibo BOG 10/1
    3.55 Newmarket Blue Laureate BOG 5/1
    ORIGINAL
    3.25 Chelmsford War Glory BOG 3/1
    3.35 Catterick Comeatchoo BOG 15/2
    3.50 Ayr Bufer Zone BOG 4/1
    3.55 Newmarket Blue Laureate BOG 5/1
    5.15 Newbury Society Guest BOG 10/1
    Colin

  4. NUMBER ONE
    2.15 Chelmsford Global Melody BOG 11/1
    3.00 Catterick Champaris BOG 3/1
    4.10 Catterick Ingleby Hollow BOG 17/2
    5.30 Ayr Mistiroc BOG 12/1
    6.50 Wolverhampton Warning Fire BOG 9/4
    NUMBER TWO
    2.20 Newbury Desert Encounter BOG 15/8
    3.00 Catterick Champaris BOG 3/1
    Colin

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