Members Daily Post: 20/09/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Ayr

4.20 – Alright Sunshine (micro runs) w2 H3 6/4 

 

Newbury

5.05 – Nayel (m runs) 16/1 

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot

3.35 – Sizing Tara (m class) 30 w1 H3 I3 7/4  WON 2/1 

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/92, 32p +50.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.30 NA – El Terremoto – 1 point win – 14/1 (betfS/PP) 12/1 (gen) UP 16/1

Well the market spoke there, albeit that was rather strange to watch – maybe not in the context of the drift, ahem.  I thought they may try and creep away, but that was just odd – never put into the race at all, unless his legs couldn’t go any faster but I can’t have that given the pace shown at MR and LTO for a circuit. Annoying when it’s over after 1/2 a mile, jockey didn’t seem to move for an awful long time through that. Maybe the horse hasn’t enjoyed it and it’s got to be make-all or nothing with him. Moving on. I was more than happy to take on Mr Mafia at 11/4>9/2 , a 10 year old now on a career high mark, up in class after those chase wins and after LTOs fade, given his solid hurdles form. Credit to connections. A Superb ride from the champ, galloped and jumped them silly, and to the eye, at some pace. Others tried to pressure him but couldn’t. 

that’s all, as of 09.01, write up ….

This is a risky one to a point but the price allows a play. I will lose all confidence if he drifts from 12s generally come race time, but there’s enough to go on here. He’s clearly a ‘character’ but without doubt has ability and IF his new connections find the key, he will be bolting up again one day. His mark is starting to look attractive. There’s a few things to go on – keeping in mind the ‘foundation’ points that he’s still unexposed over fences (1/10, arguably yet to show best) and has shown winning/form previously (decent performances, both on paper and on ‘the figures’ – RPR/TS etc)

His run in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen three starts back is the best piece of recent form in this by some way. A repeat of that would make him the one to beat here I think. That was his first run in 84 days. They then ran him 10 days later at Perth, where he was a bit flat when asked for an effort. That wasn’t surprising given the MR run. He is also now 0/8, 0p RH, 4/11,5p left handed. He then ran at Stratford LTO in a much better race than this, along with Exxaro. I think he got upset and over-raced in the blinkers. I thought it at the time and having watched it again, he was pulling Tom’s arms out for most of it, and i’m not overly surprised he fell in a hole.

He wears them for a second time now, and having got used to them, they may well inspire him – Pipe’s record with handicap chasers (standard hncps) in 2nd time blinkers is rather good… with those sent off 12/1<… 17/59, 23p, 29% sr , +47 SP, +47 BFSP, AE 1.58.  Within those stats he’s 3/6,5p at Newton Abbot, which is encouraging. He is 0/16, 1p with those sent off 14s + , which is why the market may be some sort of guide as the race nears. But, on the other hand, he’s clearly fit, and connections may not be sure which version of El T is turning up today. He does travel and jump well.

David Noonan also gets a go, and he’s in form. Tom Scu is out injured at the moment and it’s not impossible DN gets a better tune out of him. Tactics wise is interesting… he can race prominently and I won’t mind if he sits 3rd tracking the pace. There’s a chance, having been aggressive LTO, they decide to ride him cold, creep through, and deliver him late – not realising he’s in a race until after the last. While I don’t like horses nearer last than first, I get a price this time (unlike my Kelso test tip, who may still be running, and never got a blow in).

Finally, this is the furthest the horse has run over, and it could be this more gentle pace/longer trip, helps him get into a better rhythm , and he can keep galloping for longer before asked for an effort. He may not stay, but he may improve for it, and in that situation you want a price to find out. He shapes as if he’s worth a go.

Now, he could just be a monkey who’s gone sour, and will down tools. But there’s some method to my madness, and indeed Stewarts! 🙂

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Of the rest… 

I would say Exxaro is probably the main danger, and I can see why Stewart likes him. He hits a Tizzard chase angle below and I won’t put anyone off at 6s. While up in class from 2 starts back, a repeat of that run may be good enough here. Jonjo Junior is an upgrade on his jockey the last twice, which may make a difference,  and I suspect he found that Stratford race too hot, and got tapped for toe over that trip/the pace. He should race up there and he did bump into a throughly unexposed one here two starts ago, when I tipped him. For one that is now 1/22 over fences, I was undecided whether 6s was big enough for me to chance him again, but I could be wrong – a few of these today could fall in a hole, inc the selection, and he could be the last horse to keep galloping! 

Of the rest…well i’ll live with Mr Mafia, Bermeo and The Caller beating me at 5s< … I don’t think any are overpriced and they all have questions, in the context of said price.  Bermeo is in form, but is rated 102 and a repeat of LTO, or that Fontwell win wouldn’t be good enough here, IF some of the others run their race. They may not of course but at 9/2, he can beat me. 

Bells of Ailsworth could take a big step forward, I can see why he’s being nibbled at in first time CP. He has ability but he’s clearly had physical issues given his stop-start profile since Feb 2017. Given his run LTO i’d want to see more before diving in, even at his price, and he’s usually held up. 

Newtown Lad has badly needed his reappearance runs in his career to date and is on a career high mark – I suspect connections will want to get that down (0/7,1p, 121+) and if he’s not fit enough, he won’t be sighted.  Job done. He may make me look silly but I can leave him, as I can Fifty Shades who now has a question or two, esp over well-being and his handicap mark – 13/2 for a chaser that PU when last seen always feels skinny to me – you can remind me of that next time I tip one! 🙂 I was happy to leave him. 

So, that’s the lot. The selection is worth a go at 12s to my eyes, for the reasons stated. Tizzard’s probably the main danger, at the prices. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/15,7p, +2.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

4.20 Ayr – Theglasgowwarrior – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen) 2nd, +0.6 

as of 08.25, that’s all. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20 

2.30 NA – Exxaro  UP

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Big Race Trends:  AYR : READ HERE>>>

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Silver / Gold Cup ‘shortlists’…

I’ve added some ‘ratings pointers’ that I use in section 1 (as per the Key, which is in the Welcome Post Link), Geegeez Speed to follow…

Silver Cup 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners…) T

  • Gabrial The Saint / Red Balloons 
  • Venturous 
  • Get Knotted / Jawaal 
  • Rapid Applause 

Trends Shortlist 

Looking at a profile of:  age 3-5, max distance run 7f+, max distance won 6-7f, 1-5 runs prev 90 days, 2-5 career wins, 0-3 distance wins, leaves 12/91 runners, 22p, +158 SP in the last 15 renewals…

Alkaraama H1 I1/ Lahore I3 / Citron Major / Royal Residence / Magical Wish / Jawwaal T 

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Gold Cup 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners…) T

  • Gulliver / Summerghand / Arecibo H3 I3 / Cold Stare / Intisaab 
  • Major Jumbo H1 I1/ Hey Jonesy 
  • Mr Lupton I3 / George Bowen / Growl 
  • Stone of Destiny 
  • Louie De Palma 

Trends Shortlist 

Looking at a profile of: age 3-6, stall 2-22, not bottom weights, 2+ runs 90 days, 2-7 career wins, 0-2 class wins, Non-Major or Group 1 LTO, ran 60< days ago… leaves 16/114 runners, 29p, +126 in last 15 renewals (one dead heat) …

Buffer Zone H3/ Gulliver T/ Summerghand T/ Major Jumbo H1 I1 T / Justanotherbottle / Stone of destiny T / Air Raid / Staxton / Solidiers Minute 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • 14:30 Newton Abb
    EL TERREMOTO 1pt win 12/1 gen
    EXARRO 1pt win 6/1 gen

    no write ups sorry got a lot on

    Stewart 20/09/19 8:22 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    3.45 Ayr Oriental Lilly BOG 22/1
    3.45 Ayr Big Lachie BOG 11/1
    ORIGINAL
    3.45 Ayr Oriental Lilly BOG 22/1
    5.15 Newcastle Anyonecanhaveitall BOG 11/8
    8.20 Fard BOG 2/1
    Mr angry totally missed an 8/1 winner yesterday for both methods could do without losing 16 points, double checked this morning!
    Colin

    cleafe 20/09/19 10:07 AM Reply


  • NUMBER ONE
    4.20 Ayr Alright Sunshine BOG 13/8
    3.35 N/A Sizing Tara BOG 5/2
    4.45 N/A Sinakar BOG 5/2
    7.20 Newcastle Blindingly BOG 15/2
    8.20 Newcastle Fard BOG 2/1
    NUMBER TWO
    3.35 N/A Sizing Tara BOG 5/2
    4.45 N/A Sinakar BOG 5/2
    4.30 Newbury Melinkova BOG 2/1
    7.20 Newcastle Blindingly BOG 15/2
    8.20 Newcastle Fard BOG 2/1
    Colin

    cleafe 20/09/19 10:17 AM Reply


  • as the abysmal run continues just having a few fun bets at Ayr.
    1-40. Duesenberg 13-2
    2-10. Owney Madden 7-1
    2-40. Dr Simpson 9-1
    3-15. Signora Cabello 11-1 (nearly a proper bet)
    3-45. Captain Jameson 18-1, Highly Sprung 33-1
    4-20. Nick’s tip
    4-55. Three Castles 10-1

    Martin Whittle 20/09/19 10:18 AM Reply


  • Sept Comp
    2/43
    3.45 A Oriental Lily/Lucky lucky man/Global Hope/Wasntexpectingthat
    4.55 A My Ukulele
    5.30 Mac Ailey

    Mike

    mickeydee 20/09/19 11:19 AM Reply


  • At last something positive from Lambourn:

    Charlie Hills – 6.50 Newcastle, Pettinger.

    martin colwell 20/09/19 11:51 AM Reply


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