Free Daily Post: 18/09/19 (complete)

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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  • This week, September 18 -21, we are at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth and at the Sanderson Farms Championship in Jackson, Mississippi.

    Wentworth is a course steeped in tradition and was for a long time the home of the world match play championship. Francesco Molinari won this tournament last year and lines up again to defend his title. World number two Rory McIlroy is also in the line up as are many of the leading players on the European tour, such as John Rahm and Paul Casey. Rory is the bookmakers favourite at 11/2 generally available. Rahm is next at 10/1 and Casey third in the betting at 14/1. As always we look for value in these tournaments and we will let Rory go unbacked at that price. Rahm may be interesting at that price at 10/1 for a good each way bet. Casey is solid at 14/1 and in good form having won the Porsche Open in Germany two weeks ago.

    My analysis has thrown up the following bets:

    Matt Wallace, 1 point each way at 28/1 generally available with bookmakers.

    Tommy Fleetwood, 1 point each way at 20/1 with Bet365 and Bet Victor.

    Matchbook tournament match bet – Matt Wallace to beat Tony Finau at 2.29 for 4 points.

    Corey Conners, 1 point each way at 28/1 generally available with bookmakers.

    Matt Wallace finished third last week at the KLM Open after an opening round of 75. He then put together three rounds to enable him to finish three strokes behind the winner, Sergio Garcia. Matt has performed well this season in Europe and in on occasional visits to America. he is 11th on the European tour on stroke average, 10th on Par 4’s, 4th in putting in greens in regulation and 9th in putts per round. The weaker parts of his game this season have been his driving accuracy, greens in regulation and sand saves. So, we can see where his issues lie and why a 75 can appear in his card. However last week his final two rounds were a 63 and a 68 and so when he pulls it together he does score well enough. Matt has put some decent performances together when he has been invited to play on the U.S. tour including in the Majors. At 28/1 he is worth supporting against the favourites.

    Tommy Fleetwood now campaigns on the U.S. tour these days. He finished in the top 20 of the Fed Ex challenge and did not miss a cut. He was a valid contender in the majors, including finishing second in The Open and fifth in the Players Championship. Tommy did finish sixth in this tournament in 2015 and does know the course. He is a good irons player and scrambles well enough, which should come in useful on this course. despite not being a regular competitor on the European tour Tommy is 7th on stroke average, 2nd on less bogeys per round, 2nd on par 5’s and 10th on strokes gained off the tee. His putting has not been great lately but that can change quickly if his ‘short stick’ gets hot. I think that 20/1 is good value for a top player like Tommy.

    I do not see how Wentworth will suit Tony Finau’s game and so I can see Matt Wallace comfortably out scoring him. Finau has been on break for a few weeks after the Fed Ex finale and is surely coming over to the UK for a good pay day with an appearance fee. Therefore the 2.29 available with Matchbook looks good value.

    In the U.S. we head down to Mississippi for the Sanderson farms Championship. Another weakened field turns out for the second tournament of the season. Brandt Snedeker is the only high ranker from last seasons tour to play here. Last weeks winner Joachin Niemann plays here and is the bookmakers favourite at 14/1, with Snedeker at 16/1. I cannot see the very promising Niemann, he is only twenty years of age, winning in consecutive weeks.

    I like last years runner up in this tournament, Corey Conners. The Canadian has a game that excels at courses where greens in regulation is a key stat. This is Conners strength as he proved last year both in this tournament and on the tour generally.

    Of his rivals my next pick would be Si Woo Kim who is a very talented golfer, if somewhat inconsistent. Kim has won the Players Championship and the Wyndham in the past, so can do it when his game is in order. At 50/1 in places he could prove to be value.

    Good luck and keep the ball out of the rough. Martin

    martin colwell 18/09/19 9:30 AM Reply


  • North American racing – On Tuesday we had one winner, 9/4 into 11/8, one place 11/2 into 11/8, a non runner and two losers.

    martin colwell 18/09/19 9:33 AM Reply


    • Wednesday evening tips –

      Finger Lakes 4, 7.31 UK, Five Night Freddie 4/1.
      Finger Lakes 8, 9.19 UK, Centwist 9/2.
      Delaware 6, 8.45 UK, Private Party 10/3.
      Thistledown 5, 8.40 UK, Doug’s Birthday 5/1.
      Thistledown 8, 10.10 UK, Conductive 11/4.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 18/09/19 7:10 PM Reply


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