Members Daily Post: 18/09/19 (complete:08.57)

Test tip x1 (+write up), Nick’s Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Beverley

3.35 – Regal Mirage (3yo+) w2 ES+ H3 I1 G3 3/1 S3A# S4

4.40 – Excessable (3yo+) ES+H1 G3 10/3 S3A#

 

Yarmouth

3.15 – Saaheq (m age) I3 G1 13/2 S6 

4.20 – Lady Dauphin (m age) w2 H3 15/2 

 

Sandown……….None

 

JUMPS

Kelso

5.45 – Sporting Press (m +class) w2H3 5/1 

6.15 – One Night In Milan (m +class) w1 w2 H3 I3 G1 Evens S4

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/91, 32p +51.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/14,7p, +3.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

4.45 Kelso – Ballycrystal Court – 1 point win – 6/1 (bet365/BV) 11/2 (coral)

that’s all from me, as of 08.38, write up on the way…

The selection looks the most interesting in here on just his 3rd chase start and hopefully he can build on his win LTO. A few fences were omitted there but he jumped well to my eyes and would have probably won a lot further if having to jump up the straight. He did idle there, ears flicking all over the place, and they put the CP back on which may help. Adam Norman’s just posted a stable tour with Becky Menzies who says he should be winning more, but needs decent ground – that’s in part due to his wind, which they haven’t tinkered with again yet, as he seems fine at the moment. This is his 5th run after one op, and he wears a tongue tie – so I suppose that’s some indication that he’s had issues, and may explain some of his lesser efforts when stopping late. However, it all clicked LTO and he’s one of the least exposed in this line up – in general it looks a poor bunch to me. Going LH is an unknown but he jumped straight LTO and conditions look ideal. There’s a fair bit of pace on paper that he can sit off and with any luck is younger legs will power past these over the last couple. He’s in the right place on HRB/Inform ratings, indicating that run LTO was decent, relative to these. It was also a career best on Racing Post Ratings, a 112, which in theory makes his mark of 107 look workable. He’s some ok form to his name and is definitely up to beating this lot. I thought he was a shade overpriced. 

There are certainly more chases to be won with him, and his trainer states he’ll likely run plenty around Musselburgh also, on decent ground. So, whatever he does today, he could be one to track, as he’ll pop up again at some point in a poor race. 

The main dangers…

Well Zolfo is solid but this is his 18th chase and he’s on a career high mark. That made 4s / 9/2 seem only ‘ok’ to my eyes, and it was a weak race he won LTO. But he’s still young, in form, stays, and the race should be run to suit. I’ve gone for one with more upside potential, but this one is ‘the’ solid horse in the race. 

Exit To Where is  thoroughly unexposed also, but I want to see more before having a go, esp after the break. Sebastian Beach is unexposed over fences too, albeit not generally (30+ career runs), but needs more in 1st Blinkers, under his inexperienced rider. It’s a coin toss whether 1st headgear will work – well it’s worse than that (8% generally) and it would indicate he’s proving tricky. He’s not in the best form and the chase he did win (did it well) wasn’t the best (1/30 horses to have run since). I can leave him at 8s but if the headgear worked, he could be thereabouts. 

Ever So Much is at least in form, but inconsistent, he’s 10, and he can beat me. He may well do so for his in-form yard but I can leave him. 

If something else wins so be it, i’m not touching the veterans, 11+. They all have enough questions anyway. 

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

1.40 Yarm – Lalania – 1.5 win point WIN – 6/1 (gen) 

4.35 Sand – Cape Cavelli – 1.5 point WIN – 9/2 (Bet365/SB/BetS/PP) 

that’s all from Nick, as of 08.00 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

LTO Winning Trainers

4.45 Kelso – Zolfo 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.40 Kelso – Newtown Boy (11/1<) 

5.45 Kelso – Sporting Press (11/1<) 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers

5.45 – Tidal Watch (2nd run) 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Really Super – health update – well as expected something was clearly up. It transpires she had the early stages of a lung infection which would explain why she was so flat/lacking in energy. So, a line through that run. She’ll be back asap. 

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Thursday’s post may be up later than usual on Wed evening as i’ve a funeral to attend and i’m not sure what’s happening later afternoon etc as yet. 

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Tracker Tuesday: Read HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. I am pleased that Really Super is not injured and just under the weather. Animals and cannot talk to tell us they feel rough. Horses do not easily show symptoms either unlike say dogs, who tend to lay about when unwell and so you have some idea that something is up.
    What it teaches us from a betting perspective is that form is all very well but if the horse has a bad day…..well. Most of the time you can look back at official results to find if something was up but not always.

    1. yep, oh thankfully was clear early that if injured wasn’t serious as she trotted back fine, but was blowing like mad – which was odd given she’d been PU etc – yep that info wouldn’t be reported as matter of course – Stewards asked Jack and said never travelling, but results of scope etc didn’t come until later. So unless you’re connected to the horse, and unless trainer says pre race say, it would be hard to know such things – but when a horse is in such good form run before, best thing is to assume something was up, more generally.
      Her lad said she showed no signs of anything on the morning and pulled him across the yard – Amy is quick to get her vet to look at anything she thinks is abnormal etc – but would have been impossible to tell with her. Race conditions/speed etc have bought that to the surface. Thankfully caught early, and should be sorted soon enough with any luck.

    2. For sharing that information is what I was going to say. As you both say it doesn’t explain sometimes in the formbook what happened, but, little nuggets of info can be brilliant!!

    3. Reach up’s stone bruise from the week before obviously affected the horse and even though the trainer maybe thought the horse was ok, but, as you say, as the horse cannot let you know how it feels!?!

  2. COLINS BETS
    Sandown
    1.50 Union Rose BOG 3/1
    5.05 Delicate Kiss BOG 11/4
    3.15 Yarmouth Line Of Reason BOG 4/1
    4.40 Beverley Archimedes BOG 9/2
    ORIGINAL
    1.50 Sandown Union Rose BOG 3/1
    4.20 Yarmouth Pinnata BOG 15/8
    5.05 Sandown Delicate Kiss BOG 11/4
    Colin

  3. NUMBER ONE
    Sandown
    1.50 Union Rose BOG 3/1
    4.00 Loving Glance BOG 5/1
    5.05 Delicate Kiss BOG 11/4
    4.50 Yarmouth Majaalis BOG 2/1
    5.45 Kelso Tidal Watch BOG 3/1
    NUMBER TWO
    1.50 Sandown Union Rose BOG 3/1
    Colin

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