Free Daily Post: 11/09/19 (Kerry National Tips)

Free Chase Tips 

4.15 Listowel 

Ravenhill – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 

Icantsay – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/Lad/BV/Coral) 

as of 09.03, write up.. 

Ravenhill- I thought this unexposed handicap chaser was worth a go in here, on the back of his decent effort in the Galway Plate. That was a very good renewal to my eyes and for one so inexperienced he did well to get so close, staying on. He was hampered early there and made the odd niggly error but with Denis back on, hopefully he can creep away and deliver him to perfection. He’s ridden him before and was aggressive so it will be interesting to see what they do with him. This trip could bring out more. He’s unproven on slower ground, if the rain does set in, however it’s more an unknown, and at 8s I thought that was just about ok to take a chance, esp given his profile/trainer and that run LTO 

Icantsay – I thought this CD winner was a lively outsider in this and they will try and be aggressive on him. Hopefully he can build up a lead and just keep rolling. He won’t mind what the ground does and ran well over fences two starts back. He has some solid form in chases when running his race and I thought he looked interesting at the odds, especially given his running style. I think his hurdle run LTO can be ignored. If he ran as he did at Galway, he’d make this price look far too big. 

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As always in a race like this there are dangers everywhere – I thought Black Scorpion looked interesting to a point if getting in, however the inexperienced jockey put me off slightly, esp for one who’s occasionally been iffy at his fences. Some Neck may outrun his price if taking to blinkers, and Pravalaguna could go well if her jumping holds in a race of this nature – as could Barra. Her confidence appears to have been hit after that fall two starts back, when she was going to bolt up. If she got back to that level she’s be interesting to a point, albeit I thought it an odd jockey booking (first ride for Elliot I think), but he’s a decent claimer. 33s was probably a tad insulting. 

I should mention Movewiththetimes who could blow this lot away – its just whether his jumping holds I think – he was making smooth headway in the Galway Plate before coming down, and had a confidence boosting win LTO. He is the right fav given his profile I think, but does also have stamina to prove. I think he’s worth taking on at the prices. 

Best of luck with whatever you fancy, 

Josh 

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9 Comments

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  • North American racing on Tuesday – 2 winners, 2 places and 5 losers. The winners were available at 9/2 and 2/1. There were some big gambles on the night and two went badly astray. So 1/2 point lost on the evening.

    martin colwell 11/09/19 8:28 AM Reply


    • I believe there was a r4 on the winner at philly.

      Edward Crisp 11/09/19 9:04 AM Reply


      • Well spotted Edward, I will adjust the overall performance figures accordingly.

        Do you watch the races? I do not as the system is all about getting on at early prices and not form study. Did you see that one of the runners at Finger Lakes drifted from 12/1 to 20/1? Clearly a change of mind on the gamble there. The guys over there have been shipping some money lately, I have told the go between guy that they need to get more focused. We shall see.

        martin colwell 11/09/19 9:16 AM Reply


        • I generally watch the ones on replay on at the races. I don’t think they cover philly park. If there are three places I do the large prices ew.

          Edward Crisp 11/09/19 9:28 AM Reply


  • This week, September 12 to 15, we get back on to the USPGA tour. It is their reach around season and those tournaments do not count for Fed Ex points. The field at The Greenbrier Classic is depleted and contains players from The Korn Ferry Tour. But it still gives us the chance to look for value.
    My first selection is Robert Streb at 60/1 with Skybet, 1 point each way, 7 places, 1/5 odds. Streb has finished second twice in this tournament and so clearly likes the course. His form has been OK in recent months.
    My second selection is Jason Kokrak at 16/1 with Coral and others, 1 point each way, 7 places, 1/5 odds. Jason has been competing well enough on the tour in 2019 and may be able to take advantage of ta weakened field.
    My matchbook match bet is Lahiri to beat Danny Lee at evens for 4 points. Lahiri is solid and Danny Lee is having a bad 2019, missing most cuts.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 11/09/19 10:01 AM Reply


    • I do not currently like anyone on the European Tour at the KLM Open. However if I spot any value later today I will do another post.

      martin colwell 11/09/19 10:04 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin

      Where can I get the match bet on?

      Mike

      mickeydee 11/09/19 10:26 AM Reply


      • Matchbook, 2% commission.

        martin colwell 11/09/19 10:51 AM Reply


  • Cheers Martin.

    Mike

    mickeydee 11/09/19 10:56 AM Reply


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