Members Daily Post: 11/09/19 (complete:09.09)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Carlisle

2.50 –

Quickly Does It (all Hc’s) 8/1 

Kenny The Captain (micro TJC) I3 G1 9/1 S6 

3.25 – Suitcase N Taxi (m age) 7/1 

4.30 –

Mikmak (m’s age and -class) w2 H3 I1 8/1 S6 

Fuente (m age) 10/1 

5.05 –

Ghayyar (m’sTJC and age) I3 12/1 

Zoravan (m -class) H3 I3 G3 5/1 S4 

 

Doncaster

5.20 –

War Whisper (m age) H1 I3 G3 15/2 S4 S6 

Manshood (m age) 20/1 

Nibras Again (m age) 20/1 

Hans Solo Berger (all Hc’s) w1  9/1 

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

3.45 – Gortroe Joe (HcH,m’s TJC and age) w2 ES+ 11/2 S3A 

4.55 – Embole (HcH,m TJC) ES+ 10/3 S3A 

 

Bonus Irish…..Listowel

4.15 – Icantsay (HcCh) 25/1 S2A 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/91, 32p +51.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None. 

I’ve covered the Kerry National in the free post HERE>>> (Ravenhill/Icantsay), which is where the ‘nationals’ live. If you follow the main chase tips, you should back those also. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/14,7p, +3.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

None.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

4.20 Uttox – Greybougg (17/2<) 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers

4.15 List – Ravenhill (1st run)  8/1 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Doncaster St Leger Meeting

A trainer to keep an eye on…

Roger Varian : 37 bets/ 10 wins / 18p / 27% sr / +54 SP / +74 BFSP 

He was 0/6,0p last year, but his runners may be worth a closer look if you intend playing at Donny this week. I won’t be posting any ‘qualifiers’ as i’m away, but they shouldn’t be too hard to find 🙂 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. So, the big one comes round..
    I may go three handed in this as it is such a muddling race in that Mr Mullins has to have a winner eventually in it, our old friend Mr Elliott has come here mob handed and little old John Ryan has one in that we need to take a couple of looks at!?
    16:15 LISTOWEL
    PRAVALAGUNA 1pt win 12/1 gen
    I`m going with PLGuna to end Mr Mullins dismal record in this race I believe she has the best chance at the weights and Mr Mullins is on board which ticks the box of top jockey at course on board (Chases anyways), Galway form is always important here, think more for horses ticking over rather than out and out correlation, but, it does transfer, so, you decide, was her 7th in the Galway Plate good enough? I believe so, she has the speed to win this and that is also important, even over 3m, it is still relevant and I believe this flatter, faster track will suit her running style and the long run in after the bend should play into her never say die attitude.
    ICANTSAY 1pt win 25/1 gen
    This one has, as REACH UP did, got a lively chance here, even putting up overweight, trained locally by top course trainer in chases, John Ryan, he can be forgiven his lto as it was just to keep him ticking over for this as I believe this is the target and probably the stables best chance all week. He has course form and so long as he`s kept out the front should run a big race.
    SHANTOU VILLAGE 1pt win 14/1 gen
    Considering this fella is a 9 year old, he has only had a few runs, which means he may need to be wrapped in cotton wool, but, looking at his form , it looks like its a going thing, he needs good ground, he should get it tomorrow and after finishing fifth in this last year on soft ground this yielding/ good ground could be the difference this year. I would keep an eye on the weather for this one though if it goes soft, try and get yer money back, but, if it remains the former though watch out!!
    so, there you go three darts and we should get a run for our money, if Josh tips any of these, then bookies beware!!

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select tomorrow.

      1. Painful for us backers of the 2nd. But no real excuses. Never mind. Wasn’t sure as to his stamina, esp in soft ish ground, but had stayed on over 2m5f enough times. Great ride on winner. Ahhh.

    1. Shantou and Prava ran well, just wish Puppy would have stayed on board, ah well, great race! My old mate Nah tracht Ali Abu did well also and on a undulating track may cause people problems again!

      1. Yep he was running a cracker, doubt he’d have won but you never know. Now for some time staring at the winner and working out why we were not close haha. Always the way. Still, always more positives in that sort of finish than negs.

  2. cracking day out at Catterick yesterday had a couple of winners helped pick the best turned out and give out the prizes for the 3-30, free tea/coffee and biscuits and our own balcony almost looking over the winning line doesn’t get much better than that. 🙂

    1. must mention one to take notice of nto and that’s Mansfield drawn 12/12 seemingly had no chance in running but finished like a train, chatting to one of the owners he said they think he’s on a very winnable mark now and they hope to run him at Redcar in 10 day’s time, if he get’s a reasonable draw i’ll be having a few quid on.

  3. i’ll only be having a few fun bets today, did look at the 2 big field races at Donny but my shortlists are far to long so turned my attention to Carlisle where there are a few interesting runners but far to speculative for a proper bet.
    Carlisle fun bets.
    2-50. Patrick
    3-25. Penny Pot Lane
    5-05. Zodiakos/Royal Shaheen
    5-35. Bill Cody
    Donny
    3-35. Hammer Gun
    5-20. Marks Choice

  4. COLINS BETS
    4.55 Uttoxeter Jaxlight BOG 11/4
    5.35 Carlisle Flower Power BOG 4/1
    ORIGINAL
    2.25 Doncaster Bravo Faisal BOG 8/1
    4.55 Uttoxeter Jaxlight BOG 11/4
    5.35 Carlisle Flower Power BOG 4/1
    2nd and 3rds continuing very frustrating at the moment, only do win only.
    Colin

  5. Mad this reading comments on Kerry National and Josh’s
    Managed to do a decent bit on it last night, i fancy Some Neck at 16’s. Wudn’t fancy Yorkhill to win this but they must do with Townend on, but total flip round in weight now for this race from Some Neck having to give 7lbs to receiving 6 today, was still going at the end of that last race wen 2nd aswel. Didn’t fancy the rest for one reason or another, a few up in trip not guarnateed to stay. The other iv done ew in Del Arca, in my head i didn’t think this horse was that good but watched the replay from last year and he’s going really well at the end and finishes 4th. Bit of weight of its back for this year and 2nd run off a wind op, is 10yr old now but take a chance ew.
    iv not the best record on the irish races hopefully today better !!

  6. 1.50 Doncaster. Observations on value. Not a race to get involved in but if any members do place pots, this may be of interest. In terms of value ( in regard to value in terms of % value of run to win to ratios in this kind of race) there is absolutely no value to be had…Appleby is 24% which should see his runner Lazuli around the 100/30 mark not 4/11……Johnston is 17% and his runner, Misty Grey should be around the 9/2 mark and Dascombe is 1/38 which is 3% so should be 33/1…factor in the overround (don’t want the bookies to lose~ God forbid~) then even at shorter prices than the true value above there is still no value…the nearest you get is Misty Grey.

    In terms of speed…..Lazuli has had one run and ran 6f at 37.82 mph and assuming natural progression should improve and run even faster….Misty Grey ran 38.15 mph at York over 6f in a race that saw the horse beaten 11 lengths and the difference in courses has been factored into to this figure so even though the horse lost by 11 lengths the overall speed of the horse was faster than Lazuli’s…Brad The Thief ran at Bath in a C5 race over 5.045 furlongs and achieved a speed of 37.095 mph….calculating a projection is always problematical but allowing for a course and distance adjustment it is projected that, over 6f, the horse will achieve a speed of 38.00. mph…..the average speed for 6f is 37.10 mph and the average speed for 5f is 37.27 mph….Brad The Thief, by that calculation, is below average over 5f so on that basis will discard this horse as not being good enough to compete with the other two over the 6f.

    If I were looking to have a bet in the race the choice would have to be Misty Grey as providing the better value, relatively speaking, in a race that has no overall value as a betting medium….have an enjoyable day and gd lck with whatever you are backing today…

  7. 3.00 Doncaster. Archers Dream w/o….saver on Equilateral w/o

    Selection based on historical stats and speed.

    In 10 running’s of this race 3,4, and 5 year olds have been successful so have discounted those that do not fit this profile.

    Of the remainder Archers Dream and Equilateral are the fastest. Archers Dream is the more problematical figure as have had to make a calculation on adjusted figures from 6f to 5f and all projections are not 100% accurate and rely on factors that cannot be quantified but at 11/1 will take the a chance that the horse will be competitive at this distance, not having a run over this distance before…on adjusted figures then Archers Dream should be slightly faster than Equilateral @ 37.47 mph over 5f….

    Equilateral has run over 5f in the G1 King Stand race at Ascot in a speed of 37.27 mph having been beaten by 6.25 lengths by Blue Point in that race. That is a quality race compared with this so gets the nod as the saver, even though I have doubts about Ryan More in the saddle.

    Queens Gift has run 37.098 mph over 5f. and Tis Marvellous has run 36.94 mph over 5f, not enjoying a clear run on a couple of occasions in the last race but do not feel either are sufficiently good enough to beat the two selections…we shall see.

    Good lck whatever you decide to back.

    1. Equilateral just prevails so pleased with that though the other selection was disappointing with Queens improving to run the selection close so happy with that.

  8. After a successful Monday, 12/1 and 16/1 winners plus 3 from 4 Oisin Murphy yankee. The loser was a 4/7 2nd. Yesterday the betting gods were against me w/0 bets came 2nd, 3places came 3rd and 4 places came 5th. I didn’t post yesterday to busy.

    My musings today.
    5.20 D Secretinthepark
    2.50 C Kenny the Captain

    Trixie
    4.45 D Willie John
    4.40 L Movewiththetimes
    4.55 U Joys Gift

    Lucky 15
    3.25 C Suitcase n Taxi
    5.05 C Ghayyar
    2.05 U Cottonvale
    5.20 D Bowson Fred

    Mike

  9. 3.55 Doncaster…Lady Latte e/w.

    Strawman does not set a very exacting standard having run over 7.99 f at Thirsk clocking a below average speed for the distance of 34.89 mph. The average for 8f is 36.74, so fail to see why this horse is fav. when Lady Latte has clocked 37.93 mph over 6f in a class 5 at Windsor on debut. Karl Burke, the trainer of Lady Latte, is 30% with 2yo ~ 17/57~ for a level stakes profit of £51.47 so at 16/1 what is not to like? The debut run was in a fast race timed at 71.17 secs and was 0.97 secs slowee than the standard time according to the Racing Post figures…I have calculated via adjustments that compared with Lady Latte, over the equivalent distance of 6.05 furlongs Lawman would have clocked 33.33 mph.

    Should Lady Latte get the 8f, compared with Strawman , she would have clocked 38.61 mph compared with Strawman’s speed of 34.89 mph….ok, so we are talking hypothetical speeds here when making projections and Burke’s runner has a 7lb claimer on board but the price, for me is too big ….a 30% strike rate equates with a price of 9/4 so at 16/1 is good value providing the horse sees out the extra distance, but at the price this is worth taking a chance as the horse has stamina in the pedigree and the bigger price reflects this and the fact that there is a 7lb claimer on board…..of the others Stag Horn, Notation and Titanium Grey are noteworthy on pedigree and would not put anyone off backing any of them against the fav ….Stag horn would be the win only selection, with Titanium Grey a good e/w price

    I may have read this completely wrong but willing to stick my neck out and take my chances….good lck if playing and hope whatever you back you land on a winner…just hope it is one of the horses mentioned!

  10. Have spent time reviewing some old methods of mine and have found a couple which hopefully will do as well as Elite to start with.
    Must stress i will not be backing them untill 1st October for going through the papers unable to see what the prices are around 10am, so hopefully by the end of September i will have a better feel for them, but both are looking good.
    NUMBER ONE will think of a name later.
    3.25 Carlisle Flint Said No BOG 13/2 prices around 1.35 pm
    5.35 Carlisle Flower Power BOG 5/2
    6.30 Kempton Little Palaver BOG 14/1
    7.30 Kempton Buriram BOG 9/2
    8.30 Kempton Letsbe Avenue BOG 11/2
    DO NOT BACK just record till end of month.

    NUMBER TWO
    No bet
    Colin

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