Members Daily Post: 06/09/19 (complete)

Sat Trends Shorlist, Main Tip x1 (+ write up), Section 1 (complete) , Note

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Haydock

3.30 –

Wild Edric (all Hc’s) 14 H1 I3 G3 11/4 S4 UP

Came From The Dark (all Hc’s)  13/2 

4.00 –

Jackstar (all Hc’s) 14 6/1 

Molls Memory (all Hc’s) H3 9/1 

4.30 – Finniston Farm (all Hc’s,micro distance) 14 11/1 

5.05 – Ginistrelli (all Hc’s) 20/1 

 

Ascot and Musselburgh……….None

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/90, 31p +52.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

6.50 Kilbeggan – Full Cry – 1 point win – 9/2 (bet365) 4/1, 3rd, 5/1… no excuse there, more pace than I anticipated, but clever ride, took it up at right time. The winner not a head scratcher given 2nd to him in it last year but I couldn’t get to a place to back him given the early fall LTO after 77 days, the chase run before that, and inc the jockey record here. Oh well. 

as of 08.29, write up…

This isn’t a great race on paper for me and I thought last year’s winner was value at 4s. It’s always tricky around this price point but everything else has far too many questions for me and I didn’t want to be too anguished around this price point. I think he’s a better than 20% chance of winning this, actually I could make a case that it’s 40%, and he could be 6/4, or maybe say 2/1.  That may seem daft in any chase, but he is the class horse in this and there’s some deadwood to my eyes.  If he repeated his best chase form, at his favourite chase CD, this lot wouldn’t live with him. I think he will try and make all. I’d be surprised if anything takes him on and he could get his own way soon enough in this. It isn’t essential and he will be in the right spot. His claimer is making a good name for himself, knows the horse well, and the 7lb off could help. 

I suspect this has been the target since his last run. 3 starts back he was sent off at 25s after a break and no doubt needed it, but ran ok. On his next two starts, having watched them back, I think he’s gone too hard too soon. Hugh will have learnt plenty from those rides. If he’d had an easy lead at Roscommon, he’d have hung on. The winner that day, Cecil Corbet (who lines up again) was patiently ridden by Russell, letting the others seemingly beat each other up, pouncing late. The race LTO was much deeper than this, the lowest rated horse 126. Again he did plenty on the front there, being taken on at various points, against better horses. 

He’s top on HRB ratings, and along with Kilkishen, is miles clear of everything else. His RPRs are very good compared to these, even LTO’s effort. As are his Top Speed figures. He’s just the class horse in this. So, for one around this price point, which is always a dilemma (play or not), he ticks all the boxes really. 

The dangers…

Well if he doesn’t run his race, or does too much too soon again, then it does become an open race. There’s not even a horse i’d want to have a saver on really – it’s hard to pick between them to a point. 

I like Kilkishen and given his run in the Eider you’d like to think he’d have a good chase in him one day. I tipped him four starts back when PU. He does lack gears it seems and can clout a fence. Given that, I didn’t like the booking of a 7lb claimer who’s 07,0p over fences. The blinkers appear to have perked him up over hurdles and he would be interesting if they work again, over fences. But too many niggles even at 9s. Given my history with him I suppose he’d be the annoying one to have got wrong. 

Presentingprinces is now 0/4 over fences but ran ok LTO – she got beat up on the front trying to take on Riviera Sun too soon, the odd scrappy jump, before fading. I’ve watched that back and she must have had a hard race. She’ll have to be tough to build on that after 13 days. She needs more. 

As does Mossy White… he’s a 10 race maiden…which means he’s unexposed of course, but hasn’t yet proved he knows how to win, and has headgear to help him – until they prove themselves, I will always tend to have a more negative view of that profile – esp when single figure odds. I didn’t like his head-carriage LTO when under the pump, and i’m not sure he’d have passed the winner there after another 2f. I wasn’t surprised to see he’s by Scorpion – they can be tricky. I won’t be shocked if he went very close, but i’d much rather the selection at 4s than him at 5s. He’s rated 103. 

Don’t Let Go was behind both those two above 13 days ago… the race was won by another JP owned horse, which always makes you a tad wary – a more experienced pilot gets the leg up today and I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he finished ahead of those two above. I’m not sure he’s good enough to finish ahead of the selection – well he isn’t if mine runs up to his mark of course. 13/2 didn’t feel big enough, and he’s usually kept off the pace. 

There’s money for the next two in, and I can see why, to a point…

Aasleagh Dawn is unexposed on second chase start – there’s money for her which is interesting – in the ‘could be anything’ camp and has won over hurdles. She was held off 111 four starts back but it could be she makes up into a better chaser. She was disappointing LTO when fancied but maybe the ground went against her. Interesting to a point, but again I’d want to see a tad more over fences, albeit stepped up 2f in trip, on better ground. Maybe she is the most intriguing of the bigger priced ones. However she now gets an inexperienced pilot who’s 4/59 over fences – Jonathon Moore is the new stable jockey I think, so no idea why he isn’t on. Odd to entrust a gamble on a 5lb claimer over fences with those stats, riding the horse for the first time. 

Freewheelin Dylan – there isn’t much between him and the selection on their Sept 18th 1st and 2nd here. However he’s not in the best form since his return to fences and i’d want to see more. Another strange jockey pick, who hasn’t ridden for the trainer from what I can see (certainly recently), is 0/26 at the track, and hasn’t ridden the horse before. This one is usually held up and departed early LTO. I can leave him, albeit clearly if he got back to the level of that Sept run, he’d be a danger. 

Cecil Corbet is 12 and appears to have gone out of form, as has his trainer… Elliot 5/81 the last 30 days, 1/32 the last 14. If he wins so be it, I was never backing him. 

And nor was I the two other 103 rated horses at the bottom of the card. Far too many questions for me. 

So, with any luck the selection is on his A game, get gets a lead at some point, he jumps them silly and has them all in trouble a long way from home. That isn’t impossible, as his pace/jumping could put plenty of these under pressure. 

The market is suggesting Aasleagh Dawn and Freewheelin Dylan could be my main dangers, but it could be a few idiots are diving into Betfair Exch with their 5s and 10s, and they’ll go back out as the race nears. We shall see! 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/13,6p, +4.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

NONE. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Test Zone 2019/20 Master Report HERE>>>

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

IMPORTANT: To Note…

I’m off on holiday early Saturday morning to Majorca for the week. 

As always I’ll have my travel lap-top with me so there shouldn’t be too much ‘disruption’ – of note…

  • some posts may be completed (section 1) the evening before inc prices/section 1 codes etc. That will certainly be the case for Saturday.  
  • Depending on my day, all content may follow the morning of racing, rather than ‘phase 1’ the evening before, as now. 
  • Nick’s Tips are likely to live in the comments, posted by him, approx 9.15-9.45, while he’s away also. 
  • My Main Tips: I do intend to study any 3m chases when I can. I don’t feel like my brain needs a rest as such and I’m in some sort of form with those. Albeit i’m looking forward to some sunshine. 
  • There WILL NOT be any additional posts next week – No Micro Monday, Tracker Tuesday or Trends Thursday. 

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Trends Thursday

You can find this post HERE>>> 

(and in the Trends Thursday tab to the left hand side when logged in on tablet/desktop) 

 

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Trends Shortlists To Follow 

2.45 Ascot

  • Ripp Orf
  • Escobar 

Trends Shortlist

The 8/8 stats leave 8/45, 17p, +72 and leave just 3…

Salute The Soldier / Spanish City / Vale of Kent 

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3.35 Haydock 

Trainers (who’ve won race/runners) T

  • Corelli 
  • Reshoun / Time to Study / Restorer 
  • Melting Dew / Crystal King 
  • Blakeney Point 
  • Charles Kingsley 

Trends Shortlist 

The 15/15, and 14/15 stats leave… 13/72 runners, 28p, +57 BFSP in last 15 renewals…leaving…

Corelli T / Garbanzo / Alright Sunshine / Not So Sleepy 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Morning,

    Well I believe this is one of the worst conundrums I have had to look at in a while, for me the bookies have it about right, so, no bet for me. CECIL CORBETT possibly sticks out, but, is so hit and miss and is 12yrs old…FULL CRY is the class animal in here and if something was shorter than 4/1 I would consider it a value bet, so, I abstain and will let Josh have his say on this one.

    1. Have to agree Stewart, but having a small e/w on the outsider Steel Ambition @ 20. Either it’s totally u/s over fences at this distance or Flynn see’s something we haven’t had a chance to yet.

    2. Morning. Well you can see my conclusion – i’m trying to improve around that 4/1>6/1 zone as it’s very fine margins on the ‘judgement’ call – far easier for us in the 8s/10s/12s+ area, as at times you’re throwing caution to the wind. Anyway, I concluded 4s was value and he’s the one to beat but quite some way. Not impossible he’s 5+ L up turning for home here- we shall see if he then holds on. Found it hard making a case for much else, and in a way i’m rather pleased you didn’t either.

  2. COLINS BETS
    2.05 Newcastle Home Before Dusk BOG 4/1
    Haydock
    5.05 Maid In Manhatton BOG 11/4
    5.05 Kensington Art BOG 9/2
    Musselburgh
    4.25 Desert Ace BOG 10/3
    4.25 Bashiba BOG 7/1
    5.00 Corton Lad BOG 9/2
    6.30 Archimedes BOG 9/1
    6.30 Burmese Blazer BOG 15/2
    ORIGINAL
    Newcastle
    1.30 Ad Libitum BOG 9/4
    2.05 Home Before Dusk BOG 4/1
    Haydock
    3.30 Wild Edric BOG 9/4
    4.00 Alemaratalyoum BOG 9/4
    5.05 Maid In Manhatton BOG 11/4
    Musselburgh
    4.25 Desert Ace BOG 10/3
    5.00 Corton Lad BOG 9/2
    Colin

  3. 2.30 Ascot. Law of Peace win only. Court Of Amazonia and Talap each way options.

    Not much to enthuse over in terms of quality on the flat as has been the case for a good while but thought the class 3 at Ascot at 2.30 was interesting for a number of reasons. Law of Peace has clocked 37.55 mph over 7 furlongs. My figures get the average of 36.98 mph as the benchmark for this distance, so by this reckoning Law of Peace is above average and is a worthy favourite on this basis alone. In terms of pedigree the horse is very well bred having Secretariat on both sire and dam side. The other two each way options have had no run and, therefore, lack race experience which is a disadvantage, especially so since Law of Peace has run such an above average speed of 7f. This is not to say LoP cannot be beaten, just makes it more problematical that it will get beaten.

    Court of Amazonia and Talap. on pedigree, are very well bred, too. CoA has Secretariat on the sire side and Seattle Slew on the dam side and Talap is by Kingman which is a very good recent sire and has Secretariat on the sire side and Saddlers Wells and Natalma on the dam side. Both these horses have 2 gen big hearted dams (big hearted horses have and advantage over horses with smaller hearts as they can oxygenate blood more efficiently than smaller hearted horses which helps them run better in terms of both speed and stamina, thus giving such horses a genetic advantage). Such considerations are not quantifiable in terms of form for these two horses as they have not run, so making them selections is based upon these mentioned criteria and the current prices of around 9/1 and 11/1. I appreciate betting in such races is problematical as there is insufficient information to analyse such races in terms of traditional form considerations but such races are interesting nevertheless for me, but understand if no one else finds them as fascinating and useful as a betting median as myself….gd lck if playing and all the best in whatever you are backing today.

    1. That did not go according to plan but the winner Enemy looked a very good horse with plenty to come….Crystal Pegasus should have been the e/w selection, given that the sire is Galileo but chose the horses that were ultimately were disappointing on the day, given the pedigrees of both….will see what tomorrow brings

  4. Haydock 3-30. Show Palace 14-1 1pt ew, ticks enough boxes to have a punt at the price. twice a c&d winner goes in soft ground and has been running respectfully of late.
    nothing else stands out today did look at few others at Haydock and came close to putting up Awake My Soul in the 4-30 but has run badly 2/3 starts this year.

    1. just done a silly 10p ew l15
      Haydock.
      2-55. Ice Lord
      3-30. Show Palace
      4-30. Awake My Soul
      Ascot
      4-40. Shorter Skirt

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