Members Daily Post: 04/09/19 (complete:10.30)

Link to Elite Tips, Test tip x2 (+write ups), Section 1 (complete), test zone, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Bath

4.00 –

Sir Magnum (4yo+,micro’s going and age) I3 11/1 

Frantical (4yo+,m going) H1 G3 5/1 

 

Hamilton

 

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JUMPS

Southwell

3.10 –

Double Court (all Hc’s) 14,30 w1 w2 H1 I1 8/11 WON 13/8 

Emily Webb (all Hc’s) 14,30 28/1 UP

 

Uttoxeter

1.50 – Mr Love (HcH,m age) ES+ 7/2 S3A UP

2.50 – Aweeminit (HcH) w1 ES+ H3 4/1 S3A 2nd

3.20 –

Western Miller (HcCh,m age) w1 w2 H1 9/2  UP

Dandridge (HcCh)  I3 11/1  UP

3.50 – Runasimi River (m class) 7/1 

4.20 – Between The Waters (m class) 14,30 H3 I3 6/1 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 19/90, 31p +52.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, only the 4 runner race at Southwell, which i’ll leave.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/11,5p, +6.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

3.20 Uttox – Darcy Ward – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) UP 5/2. ‘value loser’ klaxon, and that’s all I can cling to there. Bit of a nothing run – ok to a point but tame after 2 out. The winner was unexposed, second chase start, I had doubt about stamina on some of hurdles runs and how he ran LTO, but hadn’t many goes, none over fences, and he’s done that well, with a superb waiting ride from Hughes. 

4.20 Uttox – Gold Mountain – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) 2nd 4/1, decent run, no excuses. He had ample time to close if good enough, sadly the winner didn’t stop. He may require a squiggle next to his name, not sure if ever going past. Maybe some blinkers and a more aggressive ride from the front, but he’s clearly moderate enough. 

 

that’s all from me today, as of 09.14, write ups…

 

Darcy Ward…

I thought this race was between the selection and Demi Sang and at 5s/9/2, he offered a bit of value. Firstly, and famous last words, but when watching his last 4 runs back it’s hard not to be impressed by his jumping. He’s accurate, fast, intelligent and just jumps very well. He also races prominently and I suspect he’ll track Western Miller, and hopefully take it up 2 from home. Ignoring his last run for a moment – he was ultra progressive before that and for a summer chase, the form is decent. He put Bally Longford in his place at Exeter in May. He’d go on to win a couple of chases in the following weeks. The Worcester run was decent, turning into a bit of a dash but he was well on top come the line. And that 2nd 2 starts back is better than any recent form in this from the others. That was a 13k C3, beaten by Gone Platinum who’s been running well forever, and who’d win for us at Bangor. There was no shame in defeat there off 11-12, ahead of the rest. And I suspect the trip just caught him out. He does look like a 20f horse, and he was outstayed over the last at MR. As well as bumping into a decent horse, esp for the time of year.

The question is obviously the PU and I think there are valid excuses. That was the best 20/21f chase of the summer over here and I suspect he just found it too hot when the taps were turned on down the back. The rain had also got into the ground and all his recent chase form was on a sound surface. And it was also his 5th run in just over 13 weeks. That’s plenty for a 6 year old chaser. Watching it back I think his jockey just decided that he wasn’t going to get in the money and he’d look after him. It didn’t look like anything was amiss as such. He’s had 46 days off to freshen up/re-charge, and he returns to a much weaker race than that, and indeed the race before. Sean Bowen gets the leg up and that’s never a bad thing on a handicap chaser, hitting my test zone jockey angle below.

It is just whether he is ok and tuned up to run his race. He will enjoy these calmer waters and I thought he was overpriced, up against a fair few more older/exposed horses who have questions also.

Demi Sang is the main danger and Richie will be patient on him again I suspect. He was impressive at Cartmel but i’m not sure it was a great race, beating the 11 yo Asockastar who lines up again here. It somewhat fell apart. However, it could be that trip is now the making of him, and even if the selection runs his race, he has too much. But, I don’t think there should be such a difference in price. For various reasons, at the odds, I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another.

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Gold Mountain.. he is the most interesting in this race and given he was upsides Gentleman Moore LTO at Worcester, doing his best work late, I wasn’t sure why they were not the same price really. The yard are hitting form and the horse gets 1st CP- Keighley is 4/20 with those when the horse is fancied, 5/1< SP. The horse returned in Jan after 400+ days off, had one run then another 100 odd days off. He’s clearly had an issue or two but he’s now stringing a few runs together and getting better with each one (as his RPRs would demonstrate). All while his mark continues to fall. He’s run well off 120 before for previous connections and he is well handicapped, if the rediscover the key. This track may suit better, his jumping has been solid, and I do wonder if LA will be more aggressive on him- he clearly stays this trip well, and with 1st CP that may help, and they can get him further forward. This is a weaker race than LTO imo – the 1st 2nd there were the right horses, and we backed the unexposed Tizzard winner that day. The rest are rather long in the tooth over fences- esp in terms of no. of runs etc.

Between the Waters is open to attack from anything with more in hand, but is solid. I can leave the two 10 year olds, they can beat me. Vif Argent seems short but he was hammered in 5 days ago before an unlucky UR early on. Connections clearly think he’s ready to dot up. I struggled to see it myself, certainly at the prices.

I thought 7/2 was overpriced in the context of this race/oppo, and I expect a bold show today. Keighley is 3/9,6p with his Uttoxeter Chasers over 2m4f in the last 5 years, and it would be great if he could add to those stats today.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End AUG -16.535 BOG / -18.035 Advised; Aug 1/26,10p, -7.93 adv/bog)

None. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Test Zone 2019/20 Master Report HERE>>>

Autumn Trainers

Twister

3.10 South – Double Court (micro 3/4) (11/2<)

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Jockey Angles 2019/20

1.40 South – The Jugopolist (25/1<)

3.20 Uttox – Darcy Ward (17/2< guide)

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

RESULTS UPDATE… 

There’s a new post in the ‘Results’ tab at the top of the blog, which you can also find HERE>>>

Of note…

My tipping… well so far so good since I gave my head a wobble, and even more so since I dropped the various experiments inc on the Flat.

Since 22nd Feb my ‘main’ chase tips (2m7f+, C4+, section 2 above)…

75 bets (75 points bet) / 19 wins / 29 places (inc wins) / +68.8 (adv/bog) / +64.77 BFSP (after 5% comm)

Realistically that 90% ROI won’t be maintained long term but I can’t grumble at those results and it’s nice to be enjoying racing again – which is rather important when you run a racing blog !

Specialisation, more video analysis, ‘pace’ analysis etc is clearly paying off, so far. You can’t rest on your laurels in this game though.

The advised strategies… you can read through those above.. the 3 main strategies continue to float around 0 but may (will!) have a spike soon. Jumps S3A# is slowly chugging into life and with Geegeez Speed ratings returning, may pick up.

Do have a look at the results for both Flat and Jumps S4 … they are worth noting and pondering. Even more so if you use the content as a ‘starting point’ – those two along with Jumps S3A# are not a bad place to start.

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Tracker Tuesday...  There will be NO post this week… i’ve been through all the handicap chases last week and it was generally moderate fair with exposed summer jumpers, many inconsistent.

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COLIN’S ELITE SERVICE

YOU CAN JOIN HERE>>>

Primarily this is for those of you who’ve followed Colin’s Elite bets and may wish to continue doing so at their new home. I’m posting this link in the members’ club both as a favour to Colin and indeed in recognition that a handful of you may wish to continue with it, given he’s been posting them here for over a year. Obviously i’m not responsible for the delivery of said service, nor the pricing etc, and I don’t wish for a discussion on those aspects to take place within the members’ posts – by all means chat away in the free posts. I’ve talked to the chap (Neil) who runs the site etc and he’s sound, and has the same principles as I do – inc no questions asked refunds etc esp for accidental payments.  Anyway, you can do as you please with that link. You can sign up HERE>>>

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

    1. Colin, it’s all sorted with Neil etc, there’s a link to your Elite Service above, at bottom of today’s post, for any members interested.
      I don’t wish for any further discussion to take place on Elite within the members’ post comments, but by all means the free post comments are available etc if anyone has any questions etc 🙂
      best of luck today, as always.
      Josh

    2. Colins bets cannot get a winner todays bet 13/2 to 11/4 lost yesterday 3 decent priced seconds the racing gods certainly do not like me at the moment!!!
      Colin

  1. From a Lambourn perspective and NH meetings I am including:

    Warren Greatrex – 1.50 Utt, Nort Star Oscar each way.

    Jamie Snowden – 4.20 Utt, Between The Waters win.

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