Members Club Results Update (my Tips/advised strategies): August 2019/year to date
(this spreadsheet tracks my main chase tips and the strategies- this includes all those strategies that have ever been tested, inc the advised strategies, the results of which are discussed below)
Daily Chase Tips (main)
These tips focus on staying chases (2m7f+), class 4 and above.
4 bets / 2 wins / 2p (inc wins) / +12 (advised/bog) / +17.19 BFSP (after 5% commission)
These results date from 22nd Feb, which is when I decided to go back to basics and focus on the staying chasers and not distract myself with other tips, including various other ‘tests’ I was doing across all race types. A few months later I’d also ditch any attempts at tipping across all codes, including the flat. These efforts drained me mentally resulting in a negative impact on all my tipping efforts. I now just focus/specialise on handicap chases and the big Jumps Festivals. The blog started with me looking at handicap chases, mainly staying races, and this move has been positive so far.
So, results since 22nd Feb to End Aug 2019
74 bets / 18 wins / 28 places (inc wins) / +63.3 points (advised/bog) / +58.5 BFSP (after 5% comm)
The 1st of Jan to 21st Feb 2019 results for my ‘daily tips’ before refocusing… 0/15,2p, -16 points. This was on the back of a horrid latter part of 2018, again where I was trying to be a jack of all trades, ending up a master of sod all. 🙂
So, in 2019 All my members’ main daily tips are:
89 bets / 18 wins / 30 places (inc wins) / +47.3 (advised/bog) / +42.5 BFSP (after 5% comm)
September has started well with 1 bet / 1 win, +5.5, taking my main chase tips since 22nd Feb to +68.8 points, from 75 bets.
I would love to keep up a 25% win SR and 91% ROI, but that may be unrealistic! However I’ll keep working hard to add to those profits for the duration of 2019. Clearly there’s plenty to be said for specialisation.
Daily Chase Tips: TEST
My main handicap chase tips above (2m7f+, c4+) are the core focus however I’ve started looking at handicap chases over shorter distances, to see if I can become a general ‘handicap chase specialist’. This won’t be to the detriment of those races above, but there are days when a chase over shorter will be a better betting proposition than those above, and it will allow me to dabble in some more of the big Saturday handicaps.
There isn’t much to report so far, however since the 14th July when this test started…
11 bets / 2 wins / 5 places (inc wins) / +6.3 (advised/bog)
If I could repeat those stats ever 11 bets, I’d be delighted.
As a reminder these strategies stem from my Trainer Track Profiles qualifiers detailed in Section 1 of the daily members’ posts. Many members use the members content, including stats qualifiers and tips, as starting points for their own study. However, there are a handful of systematic ‘strategies’ which can be backed over time successfully, or again used as starting points.
(S = ‘strategy’) These codes are added next to qualifiers on the morning of racing so you know if a horse is a strategy qualifier or not. No need to get your head around the rules for when a horse is a qualifier or not, albeit i’d always advise doing so.
2019 to date, as of END AUGUST
Jumps S1: 79 bets / 7 wins / 13 w|p / -6.15 (8am prices/bog)
Jumps S3A# : 67 bets / 16 wins / 35 w|p / +8.825 (8am prices/bog)
Flat S6: 105 bets / 10 wins / 26 w|p / +0.25 (8am prices/bog) / -4.27 BFSP
These three main strategies have yet to hit the heights of 2018 as yet, collectively bobbing around 0 points. There’s still four months of the year to go, and Jumps S1 returned as of 1st September, after its summer holiday.
Jumps S1 and Flat S6 are ‘bigger odds’ strategies, with low win SRs but historically very good profits. These big profits can depend on a handful of big priced winners through the year which as yet haven’t materialised, but still plenty of time.
Jumps S3A# remains solid with fewer bets and a higher win SR. Had a few more of those placed horses got their head in front it would be looking decent, however hopefully it creeps up to +50 points before the year is out.
If yo wish to follow just one of those strategies, Jumps S3A# isn’t a bad place to start.
As per last months results update, there’s a couple more strategies which have been ticking along, that may be worth considering, if nothing else as a ‘way in’.
This had a decent August… 21 bets / 5 wins / 10 p / +13.25 (8am prices/bog)
Taking 2019 to: 85 bets / 20 wins / 40p / +33.075 (8am prices/bog)
August: 15 bets / 2 wins / 6p / -2.5
Taking 2019 to: 250 bets / 44 wins / 85 w|p / +37.15
Again, these jumps qualifiers are a useful starting point. Jumps Strategy S3A#, mentioned above, is an extension of S3A. It’s more focused, with fewer bets and a higher win SR. As a systematic strategy I think S3A# will do better over time, both profit and certainly ROI, but again, you can use that info in any way you please.
This strategy returned in September, having had the summer off, so there should be qualifiers in the weeks ahead, through to the end of April 2020.
From Jan 1st to End April 2019: 100 bets / 30 wins / 57 places (inc wins) / +38.51 (8am prices/bog)
Hopefully this one continues to tick along also.
Both Flat and Jumps S4 had a quiet time in 2018. They were just about profitable. I’ll reassess them come the end of the year, but it could be they are worth considering ‘systematically’ again for 2020. Time will tell but in any case they’re certainly a great ‘way in’ for finding bets.
That’s all for this monthly update.
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