Members Daily Post: 02/09/19 (complete)

Chase tip x1 (+write up), Section 1 (complete) , test zone
Chase tip x1 (+write up), Section 1 (complete) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Brighton

3.30 – Fieldsman (micro age) G3 6/1 

4.00 – Roy Rocket (all Hc’s,4yo+) 8/1

 

Chepstow

3.45 – Graphite Storm (all Hc’s) w2 H1 I1 G1 3/1 S1 S4 

4.15 – Essenaitch (m age) I3 G1 11/2 

 

Windsor

6.00 – Maid Of Spirit (m’s age and going) w1 H1 G1 4/1 S1

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JUMPS

Hexham

4.35 – Court Baloo (m dist) 12/1

5.40 –

Melody Of Scotland (m TJC) 14,30  H1 I1 G1 7/2 

Placedela Concorde (HcH,m class) I3  6/1 

6.10 – Desert Island Dusk (nov HcCh) H3 8/1 

6.40 –

Prancing Oscar (m TJC) 14,30 w1 H3 I1 G3  7/2 

Gripper (m runs) 20/1 S2A

7.10 –

Classical Milano (HcCh) w2 H3 I3 4/1 

Damiens Dilemma (HcCh) ES+ 10/3 S3A

Apache Pilot (m class) 13/2

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 18/88, 30p +43.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

7.10 Hexham – King Golan – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) WON 5/1> 11/2… well that was a joy to watch, it was over after 1/2 a mile for me, the only dangers were in front, and of course the nagging feeling she may have gone too hard, but looked to get a few breathers in. Great ride, and on all known form that’s what he should have been doing to that mediocre bunch. 

as of 09.02, write up…

 

I thought this LTO winner was a couple of points too big here and on form a case could be made that he should be fav in this. In Oct 2018 it all seemed to click for him over fences, in part due to more aggressive/positive tactics. He bolted up twice then in C4 Novice Handicap Chases around Kelso, before then having a break. He ran ok at Muss on his return but appeared to find the 3m around there speedy enough. 20f was too short for him NTO but again ran well in a race with a few subsequent winners. He then fell at Kelso in a C3 in a race which was far too deep for him, on ground softer than ideal. On the back of that fall they sent him over hurdles at Cartmel where again he ran ok. He returned to fences two starts back, again over a trip too short and in ground far too soft. He still ran an ok 3rd. LTO he returne to more suitable conditions  – 3m/Good Ground, and won. He did it a shade cosily come the line, proving more resolute than the second there.

In ‘ideal’ conditions he hasn’t run a bad race since it all clicked last October. He arrives in form, stays very well, generally jumps well and races on the pace. All his wins have come when returning 16-30 days and there could be much more to come from him I think. Famous last words, but he does just look solid in this line up. He still has time on his side, unlike many in this, and he gives the impression he may enjoy the stiffer nature of this track.  There is a question over undulations but its more an unknown. The ratings, both HRB and Inform, support the case that based on recent form, he’s the best horse in this race by some way. Let’s hope he’s read the script. If he runs his race, he is the one to beat to my eyes.

I can leave the rest at the prices.

Damien’s Dilemma looks short enough but I can see the case. I’d put him in as the main danger I think. As I can for Miss batten – well, she’s unexposed and is a point winner. But she has a few too many questions for me at 5s. Classical Milano is solid but has had 71 days off and the rest are very long in the tooth.

A fair few of these can get on with it but the selection should be up there, either tracking the pace, or he’s just quick enough/jumps well enough, to get the lead himself. There should be no excuses.

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Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/11,5p, +6.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

None.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

5.40 Hex – Something Brewing (10/1< guide)

Trainers to follow

6.10 Hex – Murphys Law

6.40 Hex – Desert Point

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. Just discovered a screw up on yesterday’s tips. I listed Quick as a non hcp bet when actually it was a no form hcp bet. Only saying cos I’m aware that some folks are following the non hcp bets only, whilst watching the HCP bets. As it happens the horse won so if you are only following the non hcp bets and you backed it, you had a bonus winner there.

    Not unhappy with the HCP bets at the moment but have to admit to making the qualification parameters even tighter than they were, but they do appear to be responding favourably, so will keep them running as they are for now.

  2. COLINS BETS
    3.30 Brighton Blessed To Empress BOG 11/4
    5.10 Hexham Ringaringarosie BOG 11/4
    ORIGINAL BETS
    1.45 Chepstow Prissy Missy BOG 2/1
    3.30 Brighton Blessed To Empress BOG 11/4
    5.10 Hexham Ringaringarosie BOG 11/4
    Original bets are the old method using any race and Colins bets are HCs only with an extra rating, at times there will be dublications on bets and i back both methods seperatley.
    Colin.

  3. ELITE BETS
    Just seen Neil’s figures for Elite and he employs someone to keep accurate records and for the year so far they have + 152.53 against my + 138.41 must go back to school!
    August 72 bets 18 winners range 2/1 to 10/1 with a very solid ROI of 44.37% and August finished on + 31.5 for which we agreed amazing.
    Colin.

      1. Uses EP
        I am from the old school with BOG for it is the best of both worlds for those who have access to it, and there always new punters appearing every day, but most of mine are backed in yesterdays bet
        365 stood alone at 2/1 my BOG was 15/8 heavily backed into 5/4, so i am totally fair in pricing them up.
        Colin

          1. The difference is obviously is due to their optimism regarding what price is available and what is realistically available. I know you prefer a more conservative approach which I agree is the best way to represent the likely profitability in the longer term.

            If it’s his job to sell it then I guess he’s bound to take a more enthusiastic approach. I’ve thought of doing something similar myself which is one of the reasons as to why I’m experimenting with new ideas to fill the quiet times. Although I like what I’m doing and the way I do it, having almost nothing to offer from January to July just isn’t sexy enough for the kind of people that choose to subscribe to these kind of services.

          2. Tim
            They use the price i put up at 10am the difference is more than likely R4 more than likely i have put the wrong ones up or i have put up sp rather than work out the R4.
            Said before Neil pays someone who does all his accounts and would rather trust him than myself, and i have known Neil for 30 years and he his honest and straight.
            To imply that they are manipulating the figures when you know nothing about them and find it difficult after all this time on RTP you could think that i would allow it!
            Colin.

          3. If it was you putting up SP rather than applying Rule 4 returns the discrepancy should be the other way around Colin. Either way 24+ points difference is a lot of rule 4’s given that a substantial number of them are likely to be for trivial amounts.

            Why don’t you just ask them to explain as to how they have derived their figures? If they are unable to verify them, manipulation is the only logical conclusion a rational mind can come to. I’m not doubting that your Elite selections make a profit, enough people have come on here thanking you for putting them up which is proof enough for me.

          4. It’s ‘only’ a 14 point difference – it could be they have just kept more accurate records than Colin! 🙂 Or there has just been the odd slight difference with the odd winner. It isn’t really anything to debate or discuss as far as I can see and i’d rather this particular conversation wasn’t had here now as you will just keep going backwards and forwards. People can make up their own mind now, and if Colin trusts them, that’s enough in this particular example. His lower figure is still bloody good and everyone will have slightly different results.

            As an aside, there are some, who I quite respect, who’s use of stand out odds with one bookie etc for results purposes drives me up the wall. I find it one of the most annoying aspects of the ‘service’ game. I’ve nothing wrong with advised prices that are generally available (3/4 main bookies), on morning odds – and those prices should be monitored for 20/30 mins, which is what I do with mine and Nick’s, and will declare at shorter odds when appropriate. Of course BFSP is the holy grail.

  4. Lambourn
    After going through my records from March till the end of August level stakes win only it was minus 1.5 so for myself not worth the effort for it is very time consuming.
    It also confirms my view that trainers often think their horses are better than they are, to be fair to them another three trainers in the same race as say Osbourne could also fancy their runners for which have no access.
    Will close Lambourn and concentrate on going through some old methods and see what happens.
    Colin.

  5. after yesterdays small success i’ll have another go at 2 races.
    taking early prices on bf is hit and miss made a good call yesterday taking 7.6 on a 4.0 winner but looks like i’ll lose out today if i get a winner.
    Chepstow 3-45 . Bungee Jump 1.5 pt win @ 7.60 likes Chepstow and is the only c&d winner in the race Graphite Storm will probably be the big danger but i think Aluqair upped in class is a dodgy short priced favourite, on his best form Waqt 1/2 pt win @ 36.0 is weighted to win this but needs to bounce back.
    Windsor 6-00. Foxy Forever 1pt ew @ 10.0 rarely runs a bad race has Franny Norton on board and is just 1lb above last winning mark should have every chance of at least making the frame.

    1. today 4 pts staked returns 11.4 pts , yesterday 5.5 pts staked returns 11.4 pts, hopefully just concentrating on 2 races maybe the way to go early days but 9.5 pts staked, returns 22.8 pts, up 13.3 pts , roi 145%

  6. Uninspiring day’s racing and only one race that is vaguely interesting and a selection that happens to be a favourite so if you want to leave this alone then by all means do.

    4.55 Windsor. selection Phuket Power win only (personally will have an each way on Dance Fever).

    Phuket Power has run 38.09 mph over 6..05 furlongs in a C5 race having previously run at Sandown in a C4 race over 5f at 37.29 mph which is impressive given that my average speed over 6f (by which I use as a benchmark to determine the quality of a horse’s run) is
    37.10 mph over the 6f distance….over 5f it is 37.28 mph …..so, given that the closest any of the other runners in this race has got is Cotai Again having run over 5.97f at Brighton clocking a course adjusted speed of 37.93 mph in a C5 race. Cotai is no slouch but do not think it is good enough to beat Phuket Power…..One that may give the selection a run is Dance Fever, unraced but has a good pedigree, and, according to racing post stats the yard is 28% with two year olds so at 5/1 does represent some value given that 28% represents a price of around 5/2…favs in the race are 53% so Phuket should be a shade of odds on 9/10 or 5/6 which again is value. Second favs are 17% so Cotai should be around 9/2 but is put in at 7/2 which equates with about a 22% of winning so is not value in my eyes….gd lck if playing on a poor day’s racing…

  7. Trounced them, may have to start looking at them class 4’s also, had Pena Dorada as the only danger in my book… We’ll done Josh #mojoback

    1. Cheers gents. Nice when a plan comes off, another make all chaser. Jumped them silly and the older legs in behind just couldn’t keep up.

      Hope you did the forecast haha. I did worry for a moment as he loomed up but she kicked again and game over. Anyway. That’s done now. Onto the next but after a few losers that was nice.

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