Members Daily Post: 31/08/19 (complete:10.30)

Chester ‘through the card’ , Main chase tip x1, test tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT
Beverley

3.50 –

Billy Dylan (all Hc’s,micro TJC)

Excessable (3yo+) ES+ I3 G1 10/1 S3A# S6  UP

Van Gerwen (3yo+,m’s class and age)

Tobeeormottobee (m class)

4.25 –

Candelisa (3yo+)

Twin Appeal (3yo+) I3

Red Seeker (3yo+,m age) w1 w2 ES+ H1 G3 9/2 S3A# UP

Olivander (all Hc’s,m’s TJC and dist) w2 9/1  UP

 

Chester

2.10 – Hero Hero (3yo+) G1 10/1 S6 UP

3.55 – Bossipop (3yo+)

5.05 – Lord Lamington (m class)

 

Sandown

5.20 – Simoon (all Hc’s) I1 4/1 

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JUMPS
Newton Abbot

2.30 – Bramble Brook (m class) H3 I3 4/1 

3.05 – Majestic Touch (m runs) H3 I1  11/4 

4.15 – Lapalala (m runs) 15/2

5.25 – Floral Queen (m class) w1 H3 5/2 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 18/87, 30p +44.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

4.50 NA – Primal Focus – 1 point win – 11/2 (SB/BV/BetW) 5/1 (gen) UP, 11/2>10/3, poor.

as of 09.18, that’s all for my chase tipping today, write up below 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/11,5p, +6.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

2.30 NA – Court Duty – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) UP 5/2 (15pR4) – well it went well until turning for home, an error 2 out didn’t help, but made no difference. Best horse on the day won, good ride by Richie M, and credit to the horse, he’s been consistent and i’ve underestimated his recent form there. 

as of 08.57, that’s all for test tips…

 

Write ups…

Primal Focus –

A rare foray into a novice handicap, with an ‘eye-catcher’ from LTO. He has the best chase form in this race and if he got back to the level of March-April, he’d take some stopping here. He was going to bolt up at Fakenham when landing steeply but won NTO off 105. That would have been more comfortable but for an error 2 out. He can hit a fence, that is the concern, but in this small field I thought he’d get an easy lead on the front, with no excuse. After his CD win here he had a wind op and didn’t run well on his return. He ran much better LTO, better than the finishing result. That was a decent class 3 with 125+ animals in it, and he led them along, jumping well, for a long way. He then made a cruncher of an error down the back, dropping from 1st to last, and he was allowed to coast home after that. He didn’t have a hard race. Maybe he is just out of sorts but the TT returns which he had for his win, and this is weak enough. If he has a clear round he’s the one to beat for me, and was overpriced.

Game Line, his stablemate, is solid, but the selection has more class if getting his act together. The rest may pose a danger but have plenty of questions, and are all making chase debut, two after breaks. Pipes is 0/18 in his career, Tizzard’s 0/8,0p. They or Lavelle’s (who has a point 3rd to his name) may step forward, and if mine capsizes no doubt one will, but I couldn’t touch them at the prices. I’d want to see something over fences, under rules, first.

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Court Duty –

I thought, on form, he was entitled to be join fav in this and I expected him to be around 3s. So 9/2 looked good to my eyes. Johnson returns and he will be aggressive. I thought he could also try and make all, but in any case shouldn’t be out the first two on the way round here. He does look progressive still, esp as two starts back he hit an RPR of 125. He blundered the last there and somehow still got up – it was some error and he’d have won that by 4L if he’d have jumped as well as he can at that fence. He is on a career high mark but still open to progress. He bolted up three starts back. LTO he’d probably have come 2nd or 3rd but came down. He’s mainly been kept to LH tracks and I suspect he’s just better going this way round. Of course a fall can affect a horse’s confidence but if he’s none the worse I thought he’d be the one to catch turning for home here.

As You Like is a main danger but didn’t look overpriced, especially as he’s usually held up, he gets a ‘new’ jockey who hasn’t ridden him for a while (and RM is 0/4,0p on him) and I have niggles over any form that ties in with Bramble Brook… that one has a chance also but he’s a monkey – he’s very hard to win with, can hold his head high, and isn’t the most resolute in a battle. I won’t be shocked if one takes it but at the prices I preferred the selection.

If Field Exhibition got back to the form shown two starts ago (also beating Bramble Brook) he may have a chance, but he’s held up and is returning 3 days later after a poor hurdles run. An odd move by connections imo, they could have just waited for this race. I can leave him, but I can see the case.

I was happy to leave the rest for various reasons, but the booking of Sean Bowen for the 10 year old Cropley may be significant. He’s lightly raced for his age and has clearly had problems, this his second run back after a 400+ day break when last seen. If he could built on that he’s interesting but he is rated 94, up against 118+ animals, and needs a few to under-perform, and 11/2 couldn’t tempt me in.

Hopefully at least one of them can get the job done, and i’ll dream of a make-all double! 🙂

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

None today. 

Nick’s currently in the air on the way to Japan for a couple of weeks. On his insistence he still intends to look at racing etc and tip. He’ll post a comment below at some point and i’ll confirm how that will work for next couple of weeks – approx timings etc. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

E Lavelle Autumn (14/1<)

4.50 NA – Manofthemountain WON 7/2

 

Jumpc Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to Follow 

4.50 NA – Manofthemountain (14/1<) WON 7/2

Jockeys/Chasers

2.30 NA – Bramble Brook UP

2.30 NA – Cropley

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

2.30 NA – Bramble Brook UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers

3.40 NA – Tidal Watch (1st run) Fell (when winning)

4.50 NA – Primal Focus (1st run) UP

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Some race trends for Saturday: Read HERE>>>

 

Saturday ‘Trends’ Shortlists

2.05 Beverley 

Only the 6 runners line up for this..

Trainers (who’ve won race, with runners…)

  • Victory Command / Dark Vision
  • Arctic Fox

 

2.25 Sandown 

Trainers T (who’ve won race, with runners…)

  • Migration
  • Solid Stone
  • Mutaabeq

The 8/8 stats leave… 8/29, 12p, +101 BFSP>>>

  • Country
  • Migration T
  • Mutaabeq T
  • My Boy Sepoy

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Chester ‘through the card’ (for Tim)

1.35 – Berkshire Rocco – 2/1 WON 2/1 (+ forecast/exacta, 6/1 or so) 

(i’d be surprised if one of top 2 doesn’t win this, the fav an obvious danger. I wouldn’t put you off a reverse forecast, or if still a bet365 account, two forecasts as you can take price, pays 4.98 / 5.46 – maybe that’s being too clever but those two ‘should’ be fighting this out on limited evidence to date and its a fun way to play race for small stakes -fav has to give away the penalty, which may be tough) 

2.10 – Arcanada  9/1  UP/ Aljady 12/1 UP(EW may be best given how fancied fav is…) 

2.45 – Tribal Craft – 6/1 UP

3.20 – Know No Limits – 2/1 2nd 

3.55 – Growl – 10/3 UP

4.30- Fairy Stories – 4/1 WON 4/1>3/1 

5.05 – Celestial Force – 5/2 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    Just a nudge as per my mail to see if you have time to run through the Chester card – no worries if not. Cheers Tim

    1. Hi Tim, it’s on the list 🙂 Just about finished with the chasers, time for a second coffee, and i’ll get cracking 🙂 Will post at bottom of Section 5 as usual but will reply when up.

    2. In the 2.10 Oh This Is Us is being put up by a few tipsters and going blue on Oddschecker. Not a prolific winner though. I do not like Lake Volta in this race as he struggles to win these days. maybe he has too much weight these days?

      1. OTIU was unlucky last week, but won this race last year off a higher mark, a week after a similar defeat at Goodwood. I backed him at 7/2 last night.

    1. Selections just posted above, all the usual caveats! As always don’t be put off anything you fancy yourself etc etc

  2. COLINS BETS
    4.20 Lingfield Letsbe Avenue BOG 7/2
    4.25 Beverley Twin Appeal BOG 8/1
    ELITE BETS
    2.05 Beverley Desert Icon BOG 3/1
    3.50 Beverley Sheepscar Lad BOG 9/2
    4.15 N/A Eddy BOG 9/1
    4.30 Chester Fairy Stories BOG 4/1
    5.50 Wolverhampton Twilighting BOG 9/4
    7.30 Lingfield Nabvutika BOG 12/1
    Colin

  3. Lambourn
    Charles Hills
    1.50 Sandown Spoof BOG 18/1
    6.00 Lingfield Lucy Lou 9/2
    Ed Walker
    1.50 Sandown Mountain Peak BOG 11/1
    4.45 Sandown Baba Ghanout BOG 6/1
    Jamie Osbourne
    6.15 Chelmsford Emten BOG 5/2

    Hughes not put his views up yet his first runner is in the 4.10 so will be back later.
    Colin

    1. I thought that Baba Ghanouj was generally negative from the trainer. I also have Dreamworker, 7.00 LP, win only from Ed Walker.

      I also have 5.35 Bev, Hammy End from William Muir.

      Good luck.

      1. Generally negative, Amazed
        Trainers Quote Baba Ghanout will get her favoured fast ground today as well as the stiff mile which will hopefully be ideal for her. She is drawn 3 with Oisin Murphy on board so there are NO EXCUSES today, she has been dissappointing so far this season.
        This write up tells me they strongly fancy her today and will be bitterly dissappointed if she is not fighting out the finish.
        Dreamweaver is very well and steps up to a 1m 4f for the first time today. He has a slight wide draw but i’m hoping this wont stop him resuming his progression. NEGATIVES not proven over the distance and the draw is a concern and at the price not wort the risk.
        Hammy End NEGATIVE not proven over the distance and once again restrictive price and not worth the risk.
        Colin.

      2. Interesting ‘system’ (for want of a better word), this is. Sometimes I get the impression that you are both comparing the write ups from two different web sites, when of course it’s all about the interpretation of exactly what has been said about a horse’s chances on the day. Personally, if a trainer told me today was Saturday, I’d be rushing to find a calendar just to be on the safe side. Fascinating system all the same.

        Looking forward to seeing the month end figures on this one.

  4. four fancies today £2 ew singles and a 10p ew L15
    Sandown
    2-25. Mutaabeq 25-1
    Chester
    3-55 Watchable 16-1
    4-30. Ginvincable 8-1
    5-05. Nafaayes 12-1

  5. Only one today:
    3.35. Sandown Solario Stakes Al Suhail win only.

    Positive and Al Suhail are very close in terms of speed with Positive having run 37.42 mph and Al Suhail running 37.69 mph over 7f so I am not surprised they are 1 and 2 in the betting…with Lope Y Fernendez winning yesterday that has form with Positive boosting the form I can see why Positive is the fav….I just prefer Al Suhail both on speed and on the fact I think the horse will handle the good to firm better…..additionally I do not like backing odds on in any race….you have to have an exceptionally good strike rate to make those bets pay in the long run…so Al Suhail my choice….of the others (just a pity there are only 7 runners…enough said~) Eshassy was about 6 lengths behind Al Suhail when they last met but I do not think it is possible for the horse to turn the form around with the selection….the outsiders look outclassed and though I would love to see an upset realistically I do not think this will happen….famous last words!…gd lck if playing.

    1. Disappointing run from my selection…due to being a bit on edge and upset before the race ?? but good run from Kameko nearly pinching the race put up by Tim…who had a good winner in the Chester race at 3.20 at a good price…congrats there….back sometime during the week and hopefully better form….

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