Members Daily Post: 01/09/19 (complete:09.59)

Nick’s Tips x2, No chase tips, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Brighton

3.00 –

Chatham House (3yo+) w2 H1 I3 G3 9/4 S4

Red Alert (micro distance) 7/1

4.00 –

Good Luck Charm (3yo+,m’s TJC and runs) w2 9/2 

African Showgirl (m class) w1 10/1 

4.30 – Quick (3yo+) (only 3 runners) H3 G1 5/1 

5.00 – Light Of Air (3yo+,m runs) 7/1

 

JUMPS

Note: Geegeez Speed ratings are back for jumps after their summer break… which means Jumps S1 qualifiers will return for any who followed that strategy, which includes setting min BFSP odds where appropriate

Worcester

3.40 –

Hot Ryan (m age) w1 H1 G1 9/2 (S1 if 11.00+ BFSP) 

Superefficient (m dist) H3 I3 G3 11/4 S4 (S1 if 11.00+ BFSP) 

Rubys Cube (HcH) w1 G3 5/1 (S1 if 11.00+ BFSP) 

Lapalala (all Hc’s) ES+ 10/1 S3A 

4.10 – Mr Universum (m class) H1 I3 G3 15/8  S4 (S1 if 11.00+ BFSP) 

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2.My Tips (Daily Chase Tips/Jumps Festival Tips)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 18/88, 30p +43.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main 

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 2/11,5p, +6.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+) 

None.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019 running total End JULY -8.605 BOG / -10.105 Advised; May -8.22/-8.97, June -31.04 / -31.79, July: 7/44, 15 w|p, +19.495 advised/bog)

3.00 Bright – Michael’s Choice – 1.5 point WIN – 11/1 (betF/PP/UniB) 10/1 (gen)  UP

4.00 Bright – Cristal Pallas Cat – 1 point EW – 7/1 (gen) UP

0/2,0p, -3.5

that’s all for today, as of 09.59 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey 

3.40 Worc – Luck of The Legion

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

trainers to follow

3.40 Worc – Luck of The Legion

Jockeys/Chasers

2.10 Worc – Caveat Emptor

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NOTE/UPDATE: Colin’s Elite Bets 

Colin’s Elite Bets will no longer be posted in the members’ comments below. We had a great chat on the phone a couple of days back and he’s had an offer from an old friend that, due to various reasons inc a change in personal circs, he couldn’t refuse. So, Elite is now a paid service elsewhere, and I wish Colin all the best with it. If you’ve made a profit from backing them, then it’s thanks to Colin for posting/sharing. He’s been proofing in private to said friend for months and didn’t need to bother posting on here, so i’m grateful he did.

I plan to discuss Colin’s service with said friend, in terms of possible discounts etc, for any RTP members who may wish to join. But until that point, I won’t be sharing a link etc. Hopefully I’ll have something sorted by this time next week. Mainly this is for those of you who’ve been following it and may wish to continue.

In the meantime, Colin isn’t going anywhere. There’s still Colins Bets, Lambourn, and he’ll no doubt come up with other ideas to test etc in the next year and beyond.

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. Guys just a heads up but as Josh mentioned yesterday I am off for a couple of weeks in Japan to find my mojo which I appeared to have left over there somewhere last year. Not saying I am going to look every day however I’m on my own and doing plenty of travelling so should have ample time to look at the racing and the plan is to look most days. I do need to get on via BetConnect and they don’t have racing up until 9am so expect tips to be 9:30-10AM UK time. I’ll try and either post here or let Josh know in advance if I have tips or not. There will be tips today.

  2. Lambourn trainers on the flat:

    I have been tracking 3 trainers for 7 weeks and 1 for 4 weeks. The runners include Colin’s picks and my own additional ones. Here is where my figures are at:

    Charlie Hills: Win only +10.5 (end July -6); Each Way +2 (+4). So win bets were pretty good in August for Charlie. Each way less so. Therefore win bets were the way to go. Each way is 5/1 or better. Win only is all runners.

    Ed Walker: Win only -4.75 (+21); Each Way +2 (+4). A bad month for Ed particularly on a win only basis. One to avoid until his form comes back.

    Richard Hughes: Win only -7 (-2); Each way -6.25 (-1.75). He does not post that much but does not look worth following.

    William Muir (4 weeks only): Win only -1; Each Way +0.75. A smaller sample. He seems a genuine enough guy.

    So going forward I would stick with Charlie Hills win only until the flat season ends, but not the other three trainers. Seven weeks is a small sample though.

    I am now going to follow only Charlie Hills here. But I am also going to now start to have a go with the jumps trainers. I will start with Hendo, Warren Greatrex and Jamie Snowden. We can see how it goes. I will also have a go on the all weather come November.

    1. Only thing that I’d be a little wary of is the effect that short term trends may have on the way you ‘interpret’ the blurb. Trainers affiliation is first and foremost to the connections. Has to be that way for obvious reasons. Generally speaking they don’t give a damn about punters and regard them as a necessary inconvenience only there to provide the prize money without which they’d all be sunk.

      J Dub moves in these circles now a days and I suspect he may have a valuable insight from his personal experiences of rubbing shoulders with those ‘in the know’. No evidence…. just sayin’ that’s all.

      1. I think ‘in the know’ is over-egged to a point… obviously I (with Super etc) get reports on how she’s been at home, LTO Amy’s assistant was there who rides her, and reported how electric she was in her last piece of work – and he knows her inside out – and her lad was there who adores her and knows what she’s like daily, as does Amy etc – form in that sense is only relevant to a point – so that ‘info’ from trainers, is useful in knowing the horse, and how they are in themselves, and against their historical behaviour. So, that is a ‘thing’ for sure.

        Blessed, as another example, who won again at Chels last night – well she’s a character – as is often case esp C5/6 flat level- sometimes she’s properly up for it, and up for the fight, will respond to pressure etc- sometimes she’s just a tad off, and not as interested, or race just doesn’t go to plan. She’s been fit, and there to run her race, every time she’s run for ages now – no cleverness or silliness going on there- you keep running her, and every now and then it all goes right, inc her mood.

        And sometimes, the jockey just messes up through human error, or an off day! Super should have had a hat-trick, ahem! 🙂

        I do think a big difference between maiden/novice and handicaps… obv with exposed cappers we can all see who’s well handicapped etc technically, whether they have the conditions or the pace set up is another matter. From my experience trainer’s know their horse – they don’t know the oppo,esp unexposed. So they are judging their horse. Jamie really liked his maiden runner at Ffos Las – and he was right to do so – ran a cracker in 2nd – but bumped into an Archie Watson horse – he’d know doubt been telling his connections etc how fancied he was – non handicappers are different as trainer’s can know better ‘how good’ they are, based on homework and compared to others in their string – so they know how high up a horse is in pecking order and can judge accordingly. Ed Walker will be good at that for the unexposed ones etc –
        and at this stage in a flat season, you’ve different types running in maidens etc – those that have taken longer to develop, may have had issues, slow maturing types, those they may just want to get a run in, with eyes on next season after a winter off. And on other side to that some trainers keep their better ones for later in the season.

        Lambourn is good- well some of it – and the aim does appear to use it at some point to make money for supporting the racing community there –

        But i’d back many a folk on this site to make a better judgement of a horse’s chance in a handicap, than the trainer themselves. Outwith those points above about knowing what ‘form’ the horse is in, fitness, wellbeing etc.

        The likes of Jamie seem honest, and relaying how the horse is, hints at what is expected, but they won’t have gone through every oppo runner line by line. And you can take the likes of Raising Sand…when the rain came at Ascot, none of us needed him to tell us his horse had a cracking chance in that handicap. That was rather obvious.

        Many trainers, unlike some of their stable staff, have little interest in betting, and are no good at it.

        And trainers get it wrong, with full honesty. Nicholls is one of worst for that – he’s often said he’s told owners not to back a horse because thinks they will need run still, or wasn’t happy with last piece of work. Brio Conti in an Ascot handicap hurdle at back end last season is one example of that – hence his price, and it didn’t really move. He was bullish for his shorties that raided up to Kelso a few months back- they all under-performed suggesting they prob had a horrid trip up, for example.

        In general- the trainer’s know their horses. I’d back myself as being much better than most of them at assessing the oppo, how the race is run, and whether it’s value. And of course there’s the trainer form issue. I’d never use a trainer’s comments to put me off a horse, if I liked the price. It’s more about boosting confidence or with Lambourn, a ‘way in’ and some useful added context.

        1. I noticed that Blessed had blessed her connections and at a decent price too, unfortunately it was in the results so I wasn’t on. It wasn’t a race that I had focused my attention on cos at this time of year there are just too many meetings on the go for me to look at every race. Come the winter I tend to look at them all, even if I know it’s a very unlikely race for me to get involved in, but everything is a lot more relaxed during the dark times.

          Myself and my mare are attending my niece’s wedding on Friday and so far she’s bought the dress she said she wasn’t buying, only now she’s tried it on a couple of times she’s decided to buy the one she said she was going to buy in the first place, but after trying that one on a couple of times she’s decided to ‘race’ in the one she wasn’t going to buy but bought anyway after all. So you telling me that knowing when Blessed is on a going day is a tough call isn’t much of a big surprise TBH.

          As for me….. as usual, I’ll be going as the prince of greyness in the same old suit. Maybe not as flashy as some of the other runners, but at least I’m predictable. 😉

      2. I did say the sample time period was too small to make a proper judgement. However I need to make a judgement due to time pressures, as I have a lot on with my own stuff and the work I do with others. So it is time to try some new angles re Lambourn and after all, these are just experiments trying to find angles. I agree with Josh that if you know what you are doing you will have a better chance of finding winners than through trainers comments. We will see how the jumps angle goes? Worth a try.

  3. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ORIGINAL BETS
    2.00 Brighton Thegreyvtrain BOG 2/1
    These bets are from the same starting point of Colins bets, where Colins bets tried adding a couple of extra ratings in an attempt to find larger priced winners, have dropped one of the ratings and will stick with around 3/1 and upwards, the good factor is coming back and look forward to September.
    Original ratings can have shorter price take todays bet 2/1 but i feel it can win, so will back it myself, do feel that at times too much emphasis is put on value for me a winner is a winner provided not odds on, and at the end of the month you are showing a profit, thats all i am intrested in.
    Colin.

  4. ELITE BETS
    First of all thank you Josh for the kind words and sure that Neil and yourself will come up with something for RTP members.
    Elite results + 138.541
    August + 31.5
    July + 41.575
    June – 25.817
    May – 3.7
    April + 52.833
    March – 2.625
    February + 18.725
    January + 26.050
    Years profit so far + 138.541 Neil employs an accountant to record all his trialists and he does have an higher figure than myself, more than likely R4s for more than likely i put the wrong one on, ultra cautious.
    Colin.

    1. Hi Colin, I very rarely post on here but just wanted to thank you for sharing your Elite bets on here throughout this year. These are the only bets ive followed blindly on here throughout the whole year and I’ve made a very healthy 116pts profit and thats without BOG. Given the timing of your selections which gives everyone a fair chance to get on a the advised odds, this has been a very impressive performance so well done. Please let us know where we can sign up to the paid service and how much it will cost so missed bets are kept to a minimum. Cheers

      1. Hi Bradley.
        I’ll be posting something above in section 5 about where you can access them if you wish. This will be in next few days with any luck. I’ve yet to speak to Colins friend which I hope to do tomorrow. People can then make their own judgement on whether to join etc in terms of cost but I’m hoping to sort an RTP discount.
        Josh

  5. I can understand Colin’s move with his Elite bets as they are very good. Please do let us know how to contact the new source for these bets asp so that we can see how much they will now cost.

  6. Hi colin
    Well done with getting making the elite bets a paid for service, you’ve been doing a great job, thanks for that.

    Are you still trialling your new system? Have you any other systems you might bring here to replace it? I understand time is an issue so no worries if not. Keep up the good work.

  7. with only 2 races in the uk worth looking at for ew purposes thought i would give it a go.
    Brighton 4-00. can’t really argue against Nick’s pick Cristal Pallas Cat 15-2 1pt ew but i i have had a 1/2 pt win saver on Good Luck Charm 11-2 also a very speculative 1/4 pt ew on Highcastle 70.0 bf she ran unfathomably badly lto but her 3rd before that in an albeit very poor class 4 would give her a shout.
    Worcester 3-40. i have been matched at 7.60 1.5pt win bf on Hot Ryan who i think is much better value than Superefficient even with a 2lb pull, Luck of the Legion would have to significantly improve again to take this but is unexposed and you never know but i thought the 5-1 a bit skinny. You would have to take the fitness of Rubys Cube on trust after a year off after winning this race lto and at 11-2 i think it’s to risky. but i have had 1/2pt ew on Talkingpicturestv 9-1 who has had a break after a poor run lto which might mean something was amiss that day her 4 runs previous to that would put her right in the mix.
    i am having a look at Cork’s 4-20 and 4-50 but hopefully someone with a bit more Irish knowledge will stick something up (hint)

  8. In reply to Chris Marshall and all.
    Will be looking at my old methods again especially after the success of Elite, for which always thought that it would stand the passage of time.
    This is one reason stopped golf tips and feel Lambourn will be in the bin for it is time consuming and would rather spend the time to researching my old methods.
    Lambourn from March to 31 August is minus – 15.856 so not worth the effort again this was not looked at everyday especially March/April, so decission made Lambourn gone.
    The start as been made with Original bets from today, some will correspond with Colins bets, however they are two seperate methods and should be treated so.
    Colin.

    1. Colin, I would just like to add my thanks to you for posting the Elite bets which I have been following profitably for some time now.
      Best of luck with the paid service.

      Johnny

    2. All the best Colin…Elite will be a big miss on here…good luck for the future systems and hope they prove as successful.

    3. Afternoon,
      I hope Colin isn`t going anywhere Josh, if i was out for a drink with you lot i know i would enjoy it, but, would it get heated?!? All the people who post on here are knowledgeable and Colin is no exception, if you read between the lines with all of us, what we are after is putting a few quid in everyone’s pockets, but, it is the enjoyment factor and if you don` t have that, then you may as well pack up now.

      1. Haha. I doubt it. This sport is built on subjective opinion. It’s good to have opinions. Provided they are aired in the spirit that you (Inc me) could be very wrong. Its all about learning. But there is no right or wrong in this sport.

        Colin and I had a great chat on the phone, there’s no hard feelings at all. He has to do whats best for him and his personal circumstances with regards to Elite etc. An opportunity has arisen and he’s every right to explore it. I fully understand why Neil who’s hosting the service etc doesn’t want selections posted elsewhere. Clearly there are commercial elements that I have to consider, with my business head on 🙂

        But it’s all good. It’s one of those things. At this point in time I’m not sure I could afford to pay Colin a retainer for Elite haha… But in time, who knows! 🙂
        No one in this club has ever been asked to leave by me, or forced out, or kicked out, or made unwelcome as far as I can see, and I don’t intend on changing in that regard.
        Josh

  9. Hi Colin, just wanted to add my voice to those who have been posting thanks for the Elite tips over the years. Thanks a lot, and all the best with the paid service.

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